The dollar index pared its early gains and fell below 100 on Monday, as traders reacted positively to reports that Iran, the US, and a group of regional mediators are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire that could pave the way toward ending the war. Additional reports indicating that more ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz helped ease pressure on oil prices, offering some temporary relief. This comes amid President Trump’s threat to target Iran’s power plants starting Tuesday, while Iran continues striking energy infrastructure in neighboring Gulf countries. Investors are now awaiting a series of key economic releases that will provide further insight into the health of the economy, including the CPI report later this week and the FOMC minutes. Markets have fully priced in a pause in the federal funds rate later this month and expect borrowing costs to remain steady throughout the year.

Gold remained below $4,700 an ounce on Monday following a sharp drop in the previous session, as investors assessed reports of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East. The US, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are reportedly discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could pave the way for an end to the conflict. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump issued a fresh ultimatum to Iran, warning of strikes on its power plants and other civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Tehran has rejected the latest demand and continues to target energy assets across the region. Gold remains down roughly 12% since the conflict began, as surging energy prices have fueled inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of further interest rate hikes. The metal has also struggled to act as a traditional safe haven, weighed down by forced liquidations as investors moved to cover losses in other markets.

The number of people registering as jobless in Spain fell by 22.934 thousand from the previous month to 2.420 million in March 2026, compared with market expectations of a 10.3 thousand increase. Unemployment decreased across services (-18,852), construction (-5,846) and industry (-1,482). On the other hand, unemployment rose in and agriculture (+365). Youth unemployment fell by 431 to 188,977, the lowest figure ever recorded in March. The largest decreases in unemployment were registered in Andalusia (-8,836), Catalonia (-3,777) and Valencian Community (-2,467).

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced on Monday, rebounding from earlier losses as investor sentiment improved on prospects for a ceasefire in the Middle East. The US, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are reportedly negotiating terms for a potential 45-day truce that could pave the way for a more lasting end to the conflict. This shift in tone followed President Donald Trump setting a new deadline for Iran and escalating threats against its power plants and other civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. US equities had come under heavy pressure as the conflict pushed energy prices sharply higher, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts and potentially raise borrowing costs this year if inflation persists. Investors are now looking to the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes for further guidance on the central bank’s policy outlook.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 2.4% on Monday, reaching levels not seen since July 1997, amid rising expectations that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy in response to mounting inflation pressures driven by higher energy prices. Markets now assign more than a 70% probability of a BOJ rate hike this month, with expectations for over two additional increases by year-end. The IMF on Friday also urged the BOJ to continue gradually raising its policy rate toward a neutral level to curb underlying inflation. Additional pressure comes from the yen’s weakness, which fuels imported inflation. Oil prices climbed further after President Donald Trump escalated threats against Iran, though Tehran dismissed the latest ultimatum. Japan remains highly exposed to oil supply disruptions due to its dependence on Middle East imports, prompting releases from emergency reserves and efforts to secure alternative energy sources.

Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia’s PMI plunged to 48.8 in March 2026 from 56.1 in the prior month, signaling the first drop in the non-oil private sector in near six years and the steepest downturn since a record low in March 2020. The decline stemmed from Middle East war disruptions that strained supply chains and delayed client spending. New orders stalled, export demand shrank the most in six years, and output growth eased. Buying levels slowed, though inventories rose, reflecting limited stockpile reduction. Employment rose but at a weaker pace, while delivery times lengthened the most since June 2020 amid shipping delays and higher fuel costs. Supply constraints lifted backlogs to their highest since July 2018. On inflation, input cost rose the least in a year on softer wage pressures, though fuel and freight costs raised purchasing and selling prices. Sentiment dipped to its lowest since June 2020, as war concerns overshadowed support from government spending.