The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US increased to 52.7 in March 2026 from 52.4 in February and above forecasts of 52.5. The reading pointed to the strongest growth in factory activity since August 2022, led by a faster increase in production (55.1 vs 53.5) while new orders slowed (53.5 vs 55.8) and employment contracted slightly faster (48.7 vs 48.8). Also, the prices index jumped to 78.3, the highest since June 2022, from 70.5. “The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated a further slowing for the fourth month in a row (58.9 vs 55.1). March "also marks the first report with panelists citing the Iran war as a new impact to their business, along with ongoing uncertainty with U.S. economic policy, despite the recent Supreme Court ruling striking down International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs. In March, 64% of comments overall were negative. Among the negative comments, about 20% cited tariffs and about 40% the war in the Middle East", Susan Spence, Chair of the ISM said.

WTI crude futures were lower at around $100.7 per barrel at the start of April, though they pared most of their earlier losses as hopes for a swift de-escalation of the conflict with Iran began to fade. US President Donald Trump said Iran is seeking a ceasefire and that Washington would consider one once the Strait of Hormuz is open, free, and secure, adding that until then, the US is blasting Iran into oblivion. Earlier, the President had suggested the US could end its military involvement within two to three weeks, a comment that briefly pushed oil prices down to as low as $96.5 per barrel. In reality, however, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with attacks continuing across the Gulf. Around 25% of global seaborne oil trade transits through the Strait, with roughly 80% of those flows destined for Asian markets. In March, oil prices surged more than 50%, marking their largest monthly gain since May 2020 and reaching their highest levels since 2022.

Retail sales in the US jumped 0.6% month-over-month in February 2026, rebounding from a 0.1% drop in January and above forecasts of a 0.5% gain. It is the strongest performance in seven months, with sales rising the most at department stores (3%), health and personal care stores (2.3%), clothing (2%), sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores (1.3%), motor vehicle and part dealers (1.2%) and miscellaneous store retailers (1.1%). Other increases were also seen in gasoline stations (0.9%), nonstore retailers (0.7%), electronics and appliances (0.5%) and building material and garden equipment (0.4%). On the other hand, retail sales were lower at food and beverages (-1%) and furniture (-1%) stores. Meanwhile, sales excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations, which are used to calculate GDP, were up 0.5%, higher than forecasts of 0.3%.

Private businesses in the US added a net 62,000 jobs in March of 2026, extending the upwardly revised 66,000 in February and above market expectations of a 40,000 increase. The result held signs of resilience in the labor market per the latest leading indicators, despite economic uncertainty and the pullback in the labor force growth amid lower immigration. Education and health services jobs rose by 58,000 to remain the main source of job growth. Other gains were seen in construction (30,000), natural resources and mining (11,000), information (16,000), leisure and hospitality (7,000), and financial activities (4,000). In turn, a net 58,000 jobs were lost in trade, transportation, and utilities, while 11,000 positions were lost in manufacturing. "Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care. In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers." - ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson.

Brazil's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.0 in March 2026 from 47.3 in February, marking the slowest contraction since May 2025 but remaining below 50.0 for the 11th consecutive month. New orders fell sharply, though at the slowest pace since December, as weak demand, Middle East tensions, and constrained budgets weighed on sales. Export orders stabilized after 11 months of decline, with some firms accessing new markets via US tariffs, though Argentina and China sales fell. Factory production contracted mildly, the weakest since October, with some restocking offsetting order cancellations. Input costs surged to an 18-month high on Middle East tensions and oil prices, prompting firms to raise selling prices to an 11-month peak. Employment rose slightly for the second straight month. Business confidence weakened to an 11-month low amid competition, geopolitical risks, and election uncertainty.

The average US 30-year fixed mortgage rate for conforming loans of $806,500 or less increased for a fourth consecutive week to 6.57% for the week ending March 27th, 2026, reaching its highest level since the last week of August, compared to 6.43% in the previous week. Mortgage rates climbed as Treasury yields rose, driven by geopolitical tensions from the ongoing war with Iran that pushed oil prices to their highest levels since 2022. The surge in energy costs has stoked inflation expectations, reinforcing the case for higher borrowing costs. Meanwhile, mortgage applications tumbled 10.4%, following a 10.5% drop in the previous week, with applications to refinance a home loan, which are most sensitive to weekly interest rate move, tumbling 17.3% and those to purchase a home falling 2.5%. “The shocks of the jump in rates and the increase in overall economic uncertainty are likely having an impact on buyer confidence,” Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist, said.