Consumer prices in Thailand rose 2.42% year-on-year in June 2026, marking the third consecutive month of inflation after emerging from a year-long deflationary streak, although at the slowest pace of the sequence. The reading also remained within the central bank's 1%-3% target range, as easing tensions in the Middle East and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pushed global crude oil prices lower, causing energy prices to continue falling. Still, the ministry reaffirmed its full-year inflation forecast of 1.5%-2.5%, while Deputy Trade Policy and Strategy Office head Natiya Suchinda said headline inflation is expected to continue edging higher, averaging 2.79% in the third quarter and 3.02% in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, accelerated to 1.23% year-on-year from 0.92% in May, marking the fastest increase since June 2023.

The dollar index remained below 101 on Monday after posting weekly losses, as softer-than-expected US jobs data and lower oil prices led traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Data released last week showed US nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000 in June, the smallest gain in four months and well below forecasts of 110,000, prompting markets to reduce bets on a September rate hike. Oil prices also edged lower as recovering energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of higher OPEC+ output fueled concerns about a potential supply glut. That has helped ease inflationary pressures that had previously bolstered expectations of further rate hikes. Investors now await the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting later this week for fresh clues on the outlook for interest rates.

Australia’s Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge fell 0.4% month-on-month in June 2026, following a 0.3% decline in the previous month and marking its second consecutive monthly decrease. It was also the third monthly drop this year, pointing to easing price pressures across a broad range of goods and services. Recent data showed annual inflation slowed to 4.0% in May from 4.2% in April, as automotive fuel prices rose at a slower pace following the reduction in the fuel excise. Despite the moderation, inflation remained well above the central bank’s 2–3% target range, with underlying price pressures expected to strengthen in the June quarter.

The S&P Global Hong Kong SAR PMI increased to 52.0 in June 2026 from 50.4 in May, marking a second consecutive month of expansion in private-sector activity. It was the strongest growth in the private sector since February, supported by stronger upturns in output and new orders. New orders grew for the second straight month, driven by improving demand and greater spending during the World Cup. However, employment continued to fall, with the pace of job shedding remaining marginal. Firms also lowered their purchasing activity for the first time since last September amid concerns over the outlook for sales, while delivery times lengthened due to supplier shortages and shipping delays. On prices, input costs rose, driven by higher raw material prices. However, input cost inflation eased from the previous month. As a result, firms raised selling prices, partially passing on higher costs to customers. Finally, business sentiment weakened due to subdued local demand.

Gold traded near $4,200 an ounce on Monday, holding onto last week’s gains as weaker-than-expected US jobs data and lower oil prices led traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Oil prices edged lower as recovering energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of increased OPEC+ supply fueled concerns about a potential glut. That has helped ease inflationary pressures that had previously heightened fears of further rate hikes and weighed on non-yielding gold. Meanwhile, data released last week showed US nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000 in June, the smallest gain in four months and well below forecasts of 110,000, prompting traders to reduce their bets on a September rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a hike fell to 50%, down from 66% before the report.

Crude oil traded below $69 per barrel on Monday, hovering near its lowest levels since late February as recovering energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of higher OPEC+ output fueled concerns over a potential supply glut. OPEC+ members approved another modest increase in collective production quotas for next month, with seven countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreeing to raise output by 188,000 barrels per day. The decision reflects the group’s confidence in boosting production as conditions across the Middle East continue to stabilize. Major Persian Gulf producers have also been increasing supply, with Saudi Arabia’s exports climbing close to pre-war levels, while the UAE, which left OPEC during the conflict, has likewise restored shipments. Meanwhile, oil and gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of normalizing on Sunday, a day after several vessels made unexplained U-turns and detours along the critical energy route.