United Kingdom | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 5.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.00 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -2754.00 -2600 -2500 -2000 -1900 -400 GBP Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 89.30 87 89 89 89 85 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.32 1.29 1.27 1.26 1.25 1.11 [+]
Stock Market 7400.11 7440 7370 7290 7220 6390 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.26 1.42 1.44 1.45 1.47 1.62 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.50 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.9 percent [+]
GDP 2618.89 2820 3050 3050 3050 3290 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 488862.00 490960 492820 494800 496400 512230 GBP Million [+]
Gross National Product 495902.00 502360 506570 509600 511400 529390 GBP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 81183.00 80110 80210 80420 80670 82940 GBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 41602.98 42060 42600 42600 42600 43870 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38901.05 39740 40200 40200 40200 41100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2667.00 3250 3270 3290 3310 3650 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 27275.00 26790 26820 26860 27120 29300 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 43756.00 42830 43050 43260 43540 44700 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 5120.00 7610 7650 7690 7720 7990 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 19582.00 21170 21420 21650 21780 23400 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Services 348613.00 341900 342800 343600 344200 374500 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 19043.00 18370 18450 18560 18640 19900 GBP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 5.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 30877.00 31200 31250 31300 31350 31800 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 806.10 808 810 811 812 829 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 8541.00 8620 8670 8700 8730 8960 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 23517.00 23590 23610 23640 23660 23990 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 75.00 75.6 75.7 75.6 75.5 74.6 percent [+]
Claimant Count Change 1.10 12 16 11 9 6 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 78.40 79 79.2 79.4 79.6 82 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.20 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 2 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.80 11.5 11.4 11.2 11 11.9 percent [+]
Labour Costs 104.90 105 105 105 106 110 Index Points [+]
Productivity 100.80 104 105 105 106 110 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 780.00 783 784 785 786 792 Thousand [+]
Wages 509.00 508 510 512 514 532 GBP/Week [+]
Wage Growth 2.20 2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.5 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 590.00 589 591 593 595 614 GBP/Week [+]
Minimum Wages 7.50 7.5 7.5 8 8 9 GBP/Hour [+]
Population 65.81 65.81 66.29 66.29 66.29 67.16 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 63.50 63.5 64 64 64 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 66 [+]
Living Wage Family 1280.00 1240 1290 1290 1290 1520 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 970.00 1120 1170 1170 1170 1470 GBP/Month [+]
Average Weekly Hours 32.10 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.3 Hours [+]
Employment Change 0.40 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1330.00 1300 1310 1310 1310 1550 GBP/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2210.00 2290 2310 2310 2310 2490 GBP/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.00 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.20 109 111 114 116 134 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 104.24 109 111 114 116 132 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 104.60 109 111 113 115 133 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.70 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 103.94 111 113 115 117 132 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.80 3.2 3 2.9 2.8 2.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 112.10 94 95 93 94 95 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 110.30 102 103 104 104 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.00 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2 percent [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.80 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2 percent [+]
Producer Prices 111.30 114 116 118 120 134 Index Points [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 102.80 108 110 112 114 126 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 105.20 109 111 113 115 123 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.53 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 82530.00 91700 93200 95600 97500 122400 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1701384.00 1830200 1865000 1889000 1955000 2510800 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1669494.00 1843900 1885000 1910700 1962000 2529100 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2784211.00 2884500 2947000 2999800 3063000 3420000 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 153924.00 162000 164000 168000 172000 205000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3906698.00 3910000 3970000 4050000 4110000 4510000 GBP Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 555670.00 555000 560000 565000 570000 600200 GBP Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2370133.00 2400000 2420000 2440000 2509822 2720000 GBP Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.75 percent [+]
Lending Rate 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 2.25 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 230.51 232 234 234 234 230 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -2754.00 -2600 -2500 -2000 -1900 -400 GBP Million [+]
Exports 51581.00 50200 50600 51200 51500 55700 GBP Million [+]
Imports 54335.00 52800 53100 53200 53400 56100 GBP Million [+]
Current Account -23182.00 -27230 -21210 -14640 -17500 -22840 GBP Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.40 -4 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -1.5 percent [+]
External Debt 6138780.00 6245000 6322000 6383000 6452000 6811000 GBP Million [+]
Terms of Trade 101.60 97.5 98.2 98.4 98.6 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 11099.00 42100 12100 15400 17900 36900 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 7430.00 14900 44100 26300 -700 15900 GBP Million [+]
Gold Reserves 310.29 310 310 310 310 310 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 941.00 950 950 950 950 880 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 5.08 5.08 5.08 5.08 5.08 5.08 [+]
Tourism Revenues 2800.00 2080 1400 2100 2500 2490 GBP Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3940.00 2760 2680 3460 3340 2990 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 1393.00 1369 1398 1427 1456 1533 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.30 87 89 89 89 85 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.00 -2.6 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -981.00 9230 19700 21600 15980 9980 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending 91890.00 93050 93300 93660 93800 95590 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 42.10 43.4 43.6 43.6 43.6 44.3 percent [+]
Government Debt -7464.00 -6540 -3250 -3970 -7850 -5460 GBP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 54216.80 54619 54819 55020 55220 56750 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 2680.00 2910 3070 3040 3070 2210 persons [+]
Government Revenues 53875.00 55510 57020 55960 53400 61870 GBP Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence -11.00 4 7 6 5 2 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 56.30 56.6 57.2 56.9 56.6 53.1 [+]
Services PMI 55.60 52.8 52.6 52.4 52 54.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 2.50 1.2 1.5 2 1.8 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.70 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.70 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 84.70 82.6 82.6 82.7 82.7 82.7 percent [+]
New Orders 11781.00 14880 14970 15000 15290 16480 GBP Million [+]
Factory Orders -2.00 2 4 6 5 -2 Net Balance [+]
Changes in Inventories -2110.00 -35.21 -87.88 -374 13.5 114 GBP Million [+]
Bankruptcies 4152.00 3400 3610 3580 3500 4000 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 107327.00 111000 112000 113000 114000 121000 GBP Million [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -55.90 -36 -28 -12 1 12 [+]
Car Production 153224.00 121000 161500 159400 162000 132000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 158192.00 187000 565000 261000 471000 196000 Cars [+]
Small Business Sentiment -4.00 5 5 4 6 2 [+]
Internet Speed 16920.86 18009 18157 18290 18321 16984 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 27493519.00 27436601 27386372 27271585 27191528 26436613 IP [+]
Private Investment 0.50 -0.3 0.6 0.7 1 0.5 percent [+]
Mining Production 1.30 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.4 2 percent [+]
Steel Production 640.00 680 670 630 620 850 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.51 5.49 5.54 5.54 5.47 5.59 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 8.00 7 6 6 6 5 [+]
Composite Pmi 55.80 53.6 53.9 54 53.8 52.8 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 82 83 83 83 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 9 8 8 8 6 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 7.00 6 6 6 6 5 [+]
Electricity Production 23079.00 29900 26800 24900 26000 30200 Gigawatt-hour [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -10.00 -10 -9 -7 -4 2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.30 0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -0.30 2 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 322580.00 314000 315000 316000 317000 323000 GBP Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 330546.00 296200 302500 312600 317100 364400 GBP Million [+]
Personal Savings 5.90 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 7.9 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 2.25 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 88.00 88 88.5 88.5 88.5 82 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 126.42 128 130 130 130 132 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1606.00 1480 1570 1650 1770 2430 GBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.53 1.55 1.52 1.5 1.49 1.6 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Starts 42480.00 36210 41050 43110 41740 44750 [+]
Construction Output 1.10 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.8 percent [+]
Housing Index 730.90 742 751 763 774 890 Index Points [+]
Mortgage Approvals 66.23 67.2 68.6 69.4 72.5 97.6 Thousand [+]
Mortgage Applications 41584.00 42900 43300 44600 45800 52600 Units [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.50 63 64.48 63.1 63.1 61.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders -12.60 2.2 2.6 2.9 2.5 1.4 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 50.80 52.5 53.6 53.7 53.2 52.4 [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 17 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 44 44 45 44 43 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Temperature 6.00 6.91 7.41 9.86 9.31 7.72 celsius [+]
Precipitation 224.00 103 103 103 103 103 mm [+]