Markets Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Currency 1.35 1.37 1.38 1.39 1.4
Stock Market (points) 10686.89 10342 10035 9835 9639
Government Bond 10Y (%) 4.36 4.39 4.31 4.25 4.19

Overview Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.10 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.00 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.20 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1
Inflation Rate (%) 3.00 2.7 2 2.1 2.1
Inflation Rate MoM (%) -0.50 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 3.5 3.5 3.25 3.25
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -4340.00 -3400 -3600 -3500 -3100
Current Account (GBP Million) -12067.00 -24000 -17000 -15000 -16000
Manufacturing PMI (points) 52.00 51.1 51.3 50.5 50.7
Services PMI (points) 53.90 51.8 51.9 51 51.3
Business Confidence (points) -19.00 -27 -23 -20 -18
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.80 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4
Consumer Confidence (points) -16.00 -18 -13 -12 -11
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.20 -2.5
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 93.60 95.3
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.10 -3.5

GDP Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.10 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.00 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 705571.00 713220 716075 715765 715449
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 762494.00 751109 760555 773931 773169
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 137176.00 138857 138039 139407 139096
GDP from Utilities (GBP Million) 12045.00 12631 11877 11861 12214
Monthly GDP YoY (%) 0.70 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
Monthly GDP MoM (%) 0.10 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
GDP from Transport (GBP Million) 23015.00 22711 23044 23258 23337
GDP from Mining (GBP Million) 6868.00 6906 6968 6878 6964
GDP from Agriculture (GBP Million) 4595.00 4593 4649 4649 4659
GDP from Public Administration (GBP Million) 33325.00 33315 33486 33646 33792
GDP from Construction (GBP Million) 37408.00 38069 38682 38785 37932
GDP from Manufacturing (GBP Million) 57183.00 57983 58140 57520 57984
GDP from Services (GBP Million) 513764.00 518910 521066 521360 520957
GDP (USD Billion) 3643.83 3695
GDP per Capita (USD) 47265.00 47927
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 52517.98 53253
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 1.30 1.4

Labour Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.20 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1
Employed Persons (Thousand) 34244.00 34800 34550 34400 34450
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1662.20 1720 1710 1700 1740
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 28.60 10 -5 20 3
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.20 78.9 78.8 78.9 78.7
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 14.00 14.1 14 13.9 13.9
Productivity (points) 99.00 99.5 99.5 99.5 100
Labour Costs (points) 112.70 113 114 116 116
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 726.00 695 680 700 710
Wages (GBP/Week) 735.00 753 749 756 755
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 810.00 805 811 813 815
Wage Growth (%) 4.20 3.8 3.3 3 2.7
Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (%) 4.20 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.6
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) -10.56 15 20 30 35
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 31.90 32 31.9 32 32.2
Employment Change (Thousand) 52.00 -20 15 25 30
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 12.71 12.71
Population (Million) 69.28 70.5

Prices Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Inflation Rate (%) 3.00 2.7 2 2.1 2.1
Inflation Rate MoM (%) -0.50 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 139.50 140 142 142 143
Core Inflation Rate (%) 3.10 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.2
Core Consumer Prices (points) 135.90 137 139 139 140
GDP Deflator (points) 108.90 109 110 111 111
Producer Prices Change (%) 2.50 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.1
Food Inflation (%) 3.60 4.3 3.7 2.9 3
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) -0.60 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2
PPI Input YoY (%) -0.20 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.2
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 0.00 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 2.90 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.2
Core Producer Prices MoM (%) 0.20 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
PPI Input (%) 0.40 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Producer Prices (points) 144.40 146 147 148 147
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 149.10 147 151 150 152
Core Producer Prices (points) 142.60 143 145 146 145
CPI Transportation (points) 136.70 137 137 137 138

Money Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 3.5 3.5 3.25 3.25
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 3194389.00 3140000 3150000 3160000 3130000
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2828159.00 2793164 2826465 2870581 2867753
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 3.75 3.5 3.5 3.25 3.25
Lending Rate (%) 4.25 4 4 3.75 3.75
Private Debt to GDP (%) 75.70 71

Trade Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -4340.00 -3400 -3600 -3500 -3100
Current Account (GBP Million) -12067.00 -24000 -17000 -15000 -16000
Exports (GBP Million) 76962.00 77100 78200 79500 81200
Imports (GBP Million) 81302.00 80500 81800 83000 84300
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 616.00 580 550 570 600
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (GBP Million) -10994.00 -9000 -9300 -8800 -8500
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) -22724.00 -19200 -19800 -18500 -18200
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.20 -2.5

Government Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) 30366.00 -15000 -13500 -19500 -14900
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 93.60 95.3
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.10 -3.5
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 44.00 44.7

Business Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Manufacturing PMI (points) 52.00 51.1 51.3 50.5 50.7
Services PMI (points) 53.90 51.8 51.9 51 51.3
Business Confidence (points) -19.00 -27 -23 -20 -18
Industrial Production (%) 0.50 -0.4 0.1 0.4 0.6
Industrial Production Mom (%) -0.90 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Manufacturing Production (%) 0.50 -0.4 0 0.3 0.5
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -28.00 -26 -15 -12 -10
Bankruptcies (Companies) 1744.00 2050 2080 2100 2050
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 160993.00 146000 145000 146000 148000
Car Production (Units) 53003.00 78702 69006 51243 53268
Car Registrations (Units) 144127.00 362460 192847 316646 149174
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (%) 2.30 2.7 1.8 1.4 2
New Passenger Car Registrations YoY (%) 3.40 1.5 0.8 1.2 2
Private Investment (%) -2.70 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.10 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Composite PMI (points) 53.90 52 52.1 51.2 51.5

Consumer Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.80 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4
Consumer Confidence (points) -16.00 -18 -13 -12 -11
Retail Sales YoY (%) 4.50 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.4
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 418232.00 421489 422512 423853 424087
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 439388.00 448348 449369 445979 445539
Personal Savings (%) 9.50 10.7 10.7 10.7 10
Net Lending to Individuals MoM (GBP Million) 6126.00 5200 5500 4800 4400
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.77 1.79 1.86 1.91 1.96
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) -17.00 -16 -20 -12 -5
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 1524.00 1044 1522 1525 1545

Housing Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Housing Starts (units) 29620.00 28741 29798 29975 30509
Construction Output (%) -0.30 0.6 0.5 1.2 3
Housing Index (points) 517.50 515 519 523 526
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 61.01 70 68 67 64.8
RICS House Price Balance (%) -10.00 -2 12 14 10
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (%) 0.30 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.4
House Price Index YoY (%) 1.00 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.3
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (%) 1.00 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.7
Mortgage Rate (%) 6.62 6.37 6.37 6.12 6.12
Construction Orders (%) 28.60 0.5 1.8 2.5 2
Construction PMI (points) 46.40 47 52.5 54 54.3
Home Loans (GBP Million) 4601.00 4800 5100 4900 4700
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 540.40 551 554 556 555