United Kingdom - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

UK GDP growth is expected to slow further in 2018 as public spending cuts and Brexit-related uncertainty weigh on the economy. Still, the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its equilibrium rate of around 4.5 percent in the near term although wage growth is likely to remain low, resulting in falling real wages. Inflation is forecast to fall towards the Bank of England's 2 percent target over the next 12 months, easing the squeeze on households' finances, and house price inflation is seen to average just over 3 percent. In addition, business investment and exports are likely to be supported by the pickup in global growth. Interest rates are set to rise slowly. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.00 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.8 percent
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2 2 percent
Interest Rate 0.75 0.75 1 1 1.25 2 percent
Balance of Trade -1861.00 -3000 -3500 -3700 -3500 -1800 GBP Million
Government Debt to GDP 85.30 86.5 86.5 85.1 85.1 82.1 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.28
1.3 1.28 1.25 1.23 1.15
Stock Market 7591.26
points
7377 7180 6989 6802 6104
Government Bond 10Y 1.22
percent
1.39 1.54 1.7 1.88 2.81
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.30
percent
1.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5
GDP 2622.43
USD Billion
3050 3050 3180 3180 3290
GDP Constant Prices 506029.00
GBP Million
504741 509553 510750 514125 524437
Gross National Product 511762.00
GBP Million
507076 512459 518415 506350 527428
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 86324.00
GBP Million
86669 87906 86722 87705 90474
GDP per capita 42514.49
USD
42800 42800 43200 43200 43800
GDP per capita PPP 39753.24
USD
40200 40200 40700 40700 41100
GDP From Agriculture 2909.00
GBP Million
2984 2993 2948 2956 3081
GDP From Construction 28198.00
GBP Million
28284 28551 28311 28649 29385
GDP From Manufacturing 45358.00
GBP Million
45503 46409 46381 46084 47764
GDP From Mining 4607.00
GBP Million
4725 4525 4637 4681 4657
GDP From Public Administration 20674.00
GBP Million
20800 20984 20979 21005 21597
GDP From Services 360420.00
GBP Million
358710 362131 363182 366187 372709
GDP From Transport 19323.00
GBP Million
19339 19607 19351 19632 20179
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.00
percent
4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.8
Employed Persons 32386.00
Thousand
32280 32290 32320 32340 32700
Unemployed Persons 906.10
Thousand
849 855 866 870 885
Part Time Employment 8534.00
Thousand
8730 8760 8800 8820 8960
Full Time Employment 23852.00
Thousand
23660 23670 23740 23760 23990
Employment Rate 75.60
percent
75.5 75.2 75.2 75.1 74.6
Claimant Count Change 6.20
Thousand
9 10 5 7 6
Labor Force Participation Rate 78.80
percent
79.6 80 79.9 79.9 81
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.10
percent
1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 2
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.70
percent
11 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.9
Labour Costs 103.80
Index Points
106 106 106 107 110
Productivity 101.60
Index Points
104 104 105 105 108
Job Vacancies 829.00
Thousand
820 816 811 805 792
Wages 518.00
GBP/Week
520 522 524 526 539
Wage Growth 2.40
percent
3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.2
Wages in Manufacturing 598.00
GBP/Week
604 606 608 610 622
Minimum Wages 7.83
GBP/Hour
7.83 7.83 8 8 8.5
Population 66.19
Million
66.19 66.19 66.36 66.36 66.98
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65.5 65.5 66
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65.5 65.5 66
Living Wage Family 1280.00
GBP/Month
1350 1350 1440 1440 1520
Living Wage Individual 970.00
GBP/Month
1170 1170 1290 1290 1370
Average Weekly Hours 31.90
Hours
32.2 32.2 32.2 32.3 32.3
Employment Change 42.00
Thousand
-64 150 100 85 110
Wages Low Skilled 1330.00
GBP/Month
1350 1350 1450 1450 1550
Wages High Skilled 2210.00
GBP/Month
2360 2360 2410 2410 2490
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.50
percent
2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2 2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent
0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.77
Index Points
107 107 107 108 112
Harmonised Consumer Prices 105.77
Index Points
107 107 107 108 112
Core Consumer Prices 105.64
Index Points
107 108 107 108 113
Core Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2
GDP Deflator 103.50
Index Points
104 105 106 107 112
Producer Prices Change 3.10
percent
2.5 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5
Export Prices 113.40
Index Points
114 114 115 115 119
Import Prices 111.40
Index Points
112 112 113 113 116
Food Inflation 2.30
percent
2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2
Inflation Expectations 2.90
percent
2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2
Producer Prices 114.00
Index Points
114 115 115 117 120
CPI Housing Utilities 104.62
Index Points
105 105 105 106 110
CPI Transportation 111.81
Index Points
108 110 109 113 115
Core Producer Prices 112.30
Index Points
113 113 114 115 119
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.75
percent
0.75 1 1 1.25 2
Interbank Rate 0.80
percent
0.8 1.05 1.05 1.3 2.05
Money Supply M0 81788.00
GBP Million
97500 99500 102100 104200 122400
Money Supply M1 1734422.00
GBP Million
1955000 2029400 2071000 2111000 2510800
Money Supply M2 2371259.00
GBP Million
2562000 2632100 2691000 2746000 3129100
Money Supply M3 2829283.00
GBP Million
3063000 3110000 3164000 3204000 3420000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 160735.62
USD Million
172000 176000 179000 183000 205000
Banks Balance Sheet 3801389.00
GBP Million
4110000 4180000 4250000 4280000 4510000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 590431.00
GBP Million
622000 629000 641000 647000 700200
Loans to Private Sector 2371585.00
GBP Million
2470000 2510000 2550000 2580000 2810000
Deposit Interest Rate 0.50
percent
0.5 0.75 0.75 1 1.75
Lending Rate 1.00
percent
1 1.25 1.25 1.5 2.25
Private Debt to GDP 217.16
percent
215 215 211 211 208
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1861.00
GBP Million
-3000 -3500 -3700 -3500 -1800
Exports 52406.00
GBP Million
54800 55100 55400 55900 57700
Imports 54267.00
GBP Million
57800 58600 59100 59400 59500
Current Account -17720.00
GBP Million
-19800 -26700 -20400 -20470 -22800
Current Account to GDP -4.10
percent
-3.7 -3.7 -2.5 -2.5 -2
External Debt 6412914.00
GBP Million
6452000 6512000 6583000 6655000 6811000
Terms of Trade 101.80
Index Points
102 102 102 102 103
Capital Flows 3074.00
GBP Million
17900 40000 13600 16500 36900
Foreign Direct Investment -3896.00
GBP Million
-10700 15200 36200 22500 15900
Gold Reserves 310.30
Tonnes
310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production 1023.00
BBL/D/1K
750 750 650 650 550
Terrorism Index 5.10
5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
Tourism Revenues 1560.00
GBP Million
2500 1900 1870 2600 2490
Tourist Arrivals 2590.00
Thousand
3340 2810 3220 4010 3040
Weapons Sales 1214.00
USD Million
1274 1188 1202 1215 1213
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 85.30
percent
86.5 86.5 85.1 85.1 82.1
Government Budget -2.30
percent of GDP
-2.2 -2.2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.6
Government Budget Value -2997.00
GBP Million
-2400 1500 5100 -4400 2100
Government Spending 92940.00
GBP Million
92467 93403 93758 94427 96131
Government Spending to GDP 41.10
percent
41 41 41.5 41.5 42
Government Debt -4530.00
GBP Million
-3220 -1420 -1240 -3210 -2460
Military Expenditure 48383.40
USD Million
48729 48729 48888 49046 49776
Asylum Applications 2950.00
persons
3070 2710 2980 2850 2210
Government Revenues 56154.00
GBP Million
55400 57890 64450 57420 61870
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence -3.00
Index Points
5 4 5 4 2
Manufacturing PMI 54.00
55.4 56 55.7 55.5 53.4
Services PMI 53.50
Index Points
53 53.4 53.8 54 54.1
Industrial Production 1.10
percent
2.7 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.2
Industrial Production Mom 0.40
percent
0.5 0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.5
Manufacturing Production 1.50
percent
2.9 2.5 3 2.6 2.3
Capacity Utilization 82.30
percent
83 83.2 83.2 83 82.7
New Orders 11628.00
GBP Million
15290 15450 15620 15780 16480
Factory Orders 11.00
Net Balance
5 3 2 2 -2
Changes in Inventories 2214.00
GBP Million
0.21 -39.23 89.67 139 240
Bankruptcies 3918.00
Companies
4100 4400 4500 4900 4600
Corporate Profits 111344.00
GBP Million
114000 114000 115000 116000 121000
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -59.10
-16 -2 3 4 12
Car Production 128799.00
Units
162000 115000 164200 162500 137000
Car Registrations 163898.00
471000 175000 571000 267000 196000
Small Business Sentiment 6.00
5 15 12 11 10
Internet Speed 16920.86
KBps
20115 20629 21136 21634 26174
IP Addresses 27493519.00
IP
27792189 27772468 27811855 27813411 27862632
Leading Economic Index 0.40
percent
0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Mining Production -4.40
percent
2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 2
Private Investment 0.50
percent
0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
Steel Production 681.00
Thousand Tonnes
620 720 680 640 850
Competitiveness Index 5.51
Points
5.51 5.51 5.55 5.55 5.61
Competitiveness Rank 8.00
8 8 7 7 6
Composite Pmi 53.60
53.8 52.9 53 53.4 52.8
Corruption Index 82.00
Points
83 83 84 84 85
Corruption Rank 8.00
8 8 7 7 6
Ease of Doing Business 7.00
6 6 5 5 5
Electricity Production 25832.00
Gigawatt-hour
26000 30000 27100 25100 30200
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -10.00
Index Points
-12 -10 -10 -8 -6
Retail Sales MoM 0.70
percent
0.2 0.7 -0.2 0.4 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 3.50
percent
2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7
Consumer Spending 332149.00
GBP Million
331712 334590 335344 337463 344363
Disposable Personal Income 333116.00
GBP Million
336100 337100 338000 340500 361400
Personal Savings 4.30
percent
4.4 4.5 4.7 4.9 7.9
Bank Lending Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 2 2 2.25 3
Households Debt To Gdp 86.70
percent of GDP
88.5 88.5 87 87 85
Households Debt To Income 126.42
percent
130 130 132 132 132
Consumer Credit 1567.00
GBP Million
1770 1680 1720 1790 2130
Gasoline Prices 1.68
USD/Liter
1.69 1.59 1.51 1.42 0.78
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Starts 39890.00
units
42740 38950 43220 43400 44750
Construction Output 2.20
percent
1.2 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.2
Housing Index 745.30
Index Points
725 728 732 736 749
Mortgage Approvals 65.62
Thousand
72.9 73.7 75.1 77.2 97.6
Home Ownership Rate 63.40
percent
63.1 63.1 62 62 61.5
Mortgage Applications 40541.00
Units
45800 47600 47900 48400 52600
Construction Orders -6.60
percent
2.5 1.8 2.4 2.2 2.5
Construction Pmi 55.80
54.5 52.9 53.2 53.6 52.9
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 18 18 17
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 25.80
percent
25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80
percent
13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 6.92
celsius
13.43 6.35 4.35 10.44 8.7
Precipitation 224.90
mm
95.45 126 101 104 101