Markets Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Currency 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.3 1.29 1.28
Stock Market (points) 7186.48 7001 6926 6852 6779 6634
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.99 1.34 1.38 1.43 1.48 1.59
Overview Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.20 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.30 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.5
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.90 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.8
Inflation Rate (%) 1.90 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.50 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6
Interest Rate (%) 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 1 1.5
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -3825.00 -2700 -2900 -3300 -3600 -3100
Current Account (GBP Million) -26522.00 -20400 -20500 -18700 -24600 -22800
Current Account to GDP (%) -4.10 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2.8
Government Debt to GDP (%) 84.70 83.4 83.4 83.4 83.4 82.5
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.00 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4
Business Confidence (Index Points) -23.00 -26 -22 -14 -10 2
Manufacturing PMI 52.00 49.5 51.2 52.5 52.9 52.9
Services PMI (Index Points) 51.30 49.9 50.1 50.9 52.6 52.5
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) -13.00 -12 -16 -17 -12 -6
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.40 -0.2 -0.7 -0.2 -0.6 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 17
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
GDP Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.20 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.30 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.5
GDP (USD Billion) 2622.43 2890 2890 2890 2890 2950
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 511175.00 507385 509500 512840 519354 527144
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 521840.00 517773 522436 524449 530189 538142
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 85462.00 86553 85797 86313 86829 88132
GDP per capita (USD) 42514.49 43200 43200 43200 43200 43800
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 39753.24 40700 40700 40700 40700 41100
GDP From Agriculture (GBP Million) 2875.00 2877 2871 2859 2921 2965
GDP From Construction (GBP Million) 28470.00 28010 28101 28690 28926 29359
GDP From Manufacturing (GBP Million) 45190.00 45890 45725 45848 45913 46602
GDP From Mining (GBP Million) 4665.00 4630 4677 4758 4740 4811
GDP From Public Administration (GBP Million) 20832.00 20828 20899 20930 21165 21483
GDP From Services (GBP Million) 365436.00 361385 363494 365475 369476 375018
GDP From Transport (GBP Million) 19855.00 19307 19512 19708 20173 20475
Labour Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.90 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.8
Employed Persons (Thousand) 32714.00 32600 32600 32650 32650 32700
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1039.20 1011 1025 1090 1100 1200
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 8596.00 8550 8550 8550 8550 8500
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 24118.00 24050 24050 24100 24100 24200
Employment Rate (%) 76.10 75.9 75.9 76 76 75.8
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 27.00 5 7 11 7 6
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.30 79.1 79.2 79.2 79.3 79.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.10 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 11.00 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.9
Labour Costs (Index Points) 104.80 107 107 109 109 112
Productivity (Index Points) 101.60 102 102 103 104 106
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 854.00 851 845 836 825 805
Wages (GBP/Week) 530.00 531 537 543 548 566
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 609.00 618 618 625 629 649
Wage Growth (%) 3.40 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.2
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 8.21 7.83 8.21 8.21 8.21 8.5
Population (Million) 66.19 66.36 66.36 66.36 66.57 66.95
Retirement Age Women 65.50 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 66
Retirement Age Men 65.50 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 66
Living Wage Family (GBP/Month) 1300.00 1272 1272 1274 1347 1390
Living Wage Individual (GBP/Month) 895.00 879 879 881 927 957
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 32.00 32.2 32.3 32.3 32.3 32.3
Employment Change (Thousand) 222.00 100 85 -82 120 110
Wages Low Skilled (GBP/Month) 1320.00 1220 1220 1222 1368 1411
Wages High Skilled (GBP/Month) 2330.00 2182 2182 2186 2414 2491
Prices Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Inflation Rate (%) 1.90 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.50 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI (Index Points) 106.80 107 107 109 109 112
Harmonised Consumer Prices (Index Points) 106.81 107 107 109 109 112
Core Consumer Prices (Index Points) 106.90 107 107 108 109 111
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.80 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 2
GDP Deflator (Index Points) 104.64 106 106 107 108 110
Producer Prices Change (%) 2.20 1.7 1.6 1.8 2 2.2
Food Inflation (%) 1.10 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.20 2.5 1.9 1.7 2.2 2
Producer Prices (Index Points) 114.90 115 116 117 117 120
CPI Housing Utilities (Index Points) 104.30 105 106 107 108 110
CPI Transportation (Index Points) 110.40 108 112 113 114 116
Core Producer Prices (Index Points) 113.80 113 114 115 116 118
Money Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Interest Rate (%) 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 1 1.5
Money Supply M0 (GBP Million) 82436.00 85100 91200 101900 105700 119400
Money Supply M1 (GBP Million) 1767676.00 1851000 1951000 2111000 2155400 2510800
Interbank Rate (%) 0.83 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 1.42
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 2405975.00 2651000 2746000 2856000 2913800 3129100
Money Supply M3 (GBP Million) 2875237.00 3124000 3184000 3224000 3250000 3420000
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 174993.49 175000 179000 185000 189000 205000
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 3781467.00 3890000 4080000 4220000 4350000 4510000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 592313.00 605000 616000 625000 642000 669200
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2439096.00 2450000 2480000 2520000 2590000 2680000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1
Lending Rate (%) 1.00 1 1 1 1 1.5
Private Debt to GDP (%) 229.40 225 225 225 225 221
Trade Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -3825.00 -2700 -2900 -3300 -3600 -3100
Current Account (GBP Million) -26522.00 -20400 -20500 -18700 -24600 -22800
Current Account to GDP (%) -4.10 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2.8
Imports (GBP Million) 58487.00 57100 57800 58500 59100 59800
Exports (GBP Million) 54662.00 54400 54900 55200 55500 56700
External Debt (GBP Million) 6301189.00 6583000 6655000 6669000 6686000 6811000
Capital Flows (GBP Million) 33427.00 13600 16500 16500 38200 36900
Foreign Direct Investment (GBP Million) 8525.00 36200 22500 -9700 15600 15900
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 310.30 310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 924.00 800 800 800 800 750
Tourism Revenues (GBP Million) 1680.00 1870 2600 2700 2250 2490
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 2850.00 3220 4010 3490 2990 3040
Government Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Government Debt to GDP (%) 84.70 83.4 83.4 83.4 83.4 82.5
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.00 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) 6093.00 5100 -4400 -2200 1900 2100
Government Spending (GBP Million) 92768.00 92557 92170 91945 94252 95666
Government Spending to GDP (%) 38.50 38 38 38 38 38.4
Government Debt (GBP Million) 664.00 -1240 -3210 -3200 -2840 -2460
Asylum Applications (persons) 3840.00 2980 2850 2900 2510 2210
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 64489.00 64450 57420 58900 59870 61870
Taxes Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 17
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Social Security Rate (%) 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 12.00 12 12 12 12 12
Business Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Business Confidence (Index Points) -23.00 -26 -22 -14 -10 2
Manufacturing PMI 52.00 49.5 51.2 52.5 52.9 52.9
Services PMI (Index Points) 51.30 49.9 50.1 50.9 52.6 52.5
Industrial Production (%) -0.90 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.8
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.60 0.3 -0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5
Manufacturing Production (%) -1.10 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.5
Capacity Utilization (%) 81.30 80 79.9 79.5 79.6 79.5
New Orders (GBP Million) 10747.00 15620 15780 15820 15960 16480
Factory Orders (Net Balance) 1.00 -1 -6 -8 -5 -4
Bankruptcies (Companies) 4725.00 4500 4900 4800 4500 4600
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 112291.00 115000 116000 116000 117000 115000
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -57.00 -76 -48 -40 -36 -12
Car Production (Units) 120649.00 145200 136500 134000 115000 125000
Car Registrations 81969.00 465000 245000 362000 151000 174000
Small Business Sentiment -31.00 -26 -22 -28 -24 -7
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.20 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5
Private Investment (%) -1.40 -1 -2.2 -1.6 -0.8 0.5
Mining Production (%) -0.60 -2 -1.4 0.1 0.5 1.5
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 520.00 680 640 640 770 850
Composite Pmi 51.50 49.8 50.2 51.1 52.4 52.8
Electricity Production (Gigawatt-hour) 29953.00 27100 25100 26000 30100 30200
Consumer Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) -13.00 -12 -16 -17 -12 -6
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.40 -0.2 -0.7 -0.2 -0.6 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) 4.00 3.2 1.4 1.9 1.5 2.2
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 337646.00 334572 336651 337963 343048 348194
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 340827.00 338285 342065 342303 344917 350091
Personal Savings (%) 4.30 4.7 4.9 5.1 6.2 7.9
Bank Lending Rate (%) 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5 3
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 86.50 87 87 87 87 85
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 1095.00 492 1489 852 691 702
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.57 1.53 1.49 1.45 1.42 1.42
Housing Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Housing Starts (units) 46930.00 43220 43400 45100 41420 44750
Construction Output (%) 1.80 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.2
Housing Index (Index Points) 766.40 750 769 775 785 795
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 66.77 66.5 70.2 75.4 79.1 86.6
Mortgage Applications (Units) 40634.00 44900 45400 48900 49200 52600
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.00 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62
Construction Orders (%) -10.50 -4.6 -7.7 -3.6 -2.4 1.5
Construction Pmi 49.50 49.1 50.6 51.2 52.6 54


UK GDP growth is forecast to remain subdued in 2019 as Brexit-related uncertainty, global trade tensions and higher interest rates weigh on the economy. Still, the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its lowest level since the mid-1970s and wage growth is likely to remain modest. Inflation is projected to near the Bank of England's 2 percent target until the end of the year and house price growth is seen to average between 2-4 percent. An interest rate hike by the Bank of England is expected by the end of the year. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.