Markets Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Currency 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.39 1.39
Stock Market (points) 10878.12 10728 10410 10212 10017
Government Bond 10Y (%) 5.02 5.03 4.92 4.85 4.78

Overview Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.40 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.20 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.90 5 5.2 5.4 5.5
Inflation Rate (%) 2.90 3.6 3.5 3.4 3
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.30 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 4 4 4.25 4.25
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -5537.00 -1600 -1700 -1500 -1800
Current Account (GBP Million) -22134.00 -19000 -26000 -22000 -21000
Business Confidence (points) -36.00 -40 -25 -27 -18
Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.50 51.7 52 51.7 51.9
Services PMI (points) 52.80 52.6 52.3 52.5 53
Consumer Confidence (points) -14.00 -19 -18 -18 -17
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.50 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.40 -2.4
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 94.30 94.9
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.30 -3.8

GDP Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.40 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.20 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 712545.00 715374 715032 720952 723233
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 776704.00 765896 766133 789131 788355
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 140682.00 140658 140377 141190 142792
Monthly GDP MoM (%) 0.30 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Monthly GDP YoY (%) 1.10 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
GDP from Utilities (GBP Million) 12317.00 11946 12417 12514 12502
GDP from Agriculture (GBP Million) 4371.00 4668 4622 4449 4437
GDP from Construction (GBP Million) 36687.00 38022 37014 37162 37237
GDP from Manufacturing (GBP Million) 57160.00 56606 56993 57516 58017
GDP from Mining (GBP Million) 6604.00 7000 7008 6695 6703
GDP from Public Administration (GBP Million) 33445.00 33671 33774 33927 33947
GDP from Services (GBP Million) 519918.00 520745 520560 525623 527717
GDP from Transport (GBP Million) 23809.00 23309 23532 23914 24166
GDP (USD Billion) 4002.59 4031
GDP per Capita (USD) 48422.07 48761
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 53993.12 54371
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 1.40 0.7

Labour Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.90 5 5.2 5.4 5.5
Employed Persons (Thousand) 34469.00 34525 34620 34700 34780
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1675.50 1700 1710 1716 1718
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) -11.00 20 3 -2 2
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.10 78.9 78.7 78.8 78.9
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 14.60 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.2
Productivity (points) 99.30 100 100 100 100
Labour Costs (points) 114.50 116 116 118 118
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 707.00 668 650 670 700
Wages (GBP/Week) 755.00 761 759 779 775
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 824.00 840 850 860 870
Wage Growth (%) 4.10 3.7 3.3 3 2.7
Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (%) 3.50 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) -12.85 30 35 40 35
Employment Change (Thousand) 83.00 25 30 35 45
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 32.10 32 32.2 32.1 32
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 12.71 12.71
Population (Million) 69.49 69.65

Prices Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Inflation Rate (%) 2.90 3.6 3.5 3.4 3
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.30 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 142.90 144 145 146 147
Core Consumer Prices (points) 139.30 140 141 142 143
Core Inflation Rate (%) 2.60 2.7 2.9 3.2 2.7
GDP Deflator (points) 110.00 112 113 114 113
Producer Prices Change (%) 3.10 3.8 4 3.9 3.4
Food Inflation (%) 1.30 1.8 2 2.2 2.3
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.20 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3
Core Producer Prices MoM (%) 0.60 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 2.80 2.5 2.1 2 1.9
PPI Input (%) -1.70 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3
PPI Input YoY (%) 4.90 7.2 6 4 3.2
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 0.20 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
Producer Prices (points) 148.40 150 150 151 153
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 153.20 152 154 156 154
CPI Transportation (points) 146.10 146 147 147 148
Core Producer Prices (points) 146.10 146 145 145 148

Money Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 4 4 4.25 4.25
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 3238708.00 3210000 3200000 3190000 3195000
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2986055.00 2870692 2914931 2974543 3030846
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 3.60 3.85 3.85 4.1 4.1
Lending Rate (%) 3.90 4.15 4.15 4.4 4.4
Private Debt to GDP (%) 69.70 71

Trade Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -5537.00 -1600 -1700 -1500 -1800
Current Account (GBP Million) -22134.00 -19000 -26000 -22000 -21000
Imports (GBP Million) 85744.00 85100 85900 86400 86900
Exports (GBP Million) 80207.00 83500 84200 84900 85100
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 620.00 625 640 680 650
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (GBP Million) -10448.00 -8800 -8500 -8200 -8200
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) -23007.00 -18500 -18200 -17500 -17500
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.40 -2.4

Government Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -1800.00 -13200 -15800 -11400 -10500
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 94.30 94.9
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.30 -3.8
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 44.60 44.9

Business Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Business Confidence (points) -36.00 -40 -25 -27 -18
Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.50 51.7 52 51.7 51.9
Services PMI (points) 52.80 52.6 52.3 52.5 53
Industrial Production (%) -0.20 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.3
Industrial Production Mom (%) -0.20 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
Manufacturing Production (%) 0.50 2.3 2 1.7 1.5
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -25.00 -40 -37 -30 22
Bankruptcies (Companies) 1931.00 1995 2050 2000 1990
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 169181.00 171768 173134 174522 175921
Car Production (Units) 61767.00 52265 54063 70941 69223
Car Registrations (Units) 156571.00 316646 155024 409174 222332
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (%) 1.00 1.4 2 1.7 2
New Passenger Car Registrations YoY (%) 11.70 1.2 6 7.5 4.3
Private Investment (%) 1.70 0.8 0.7 0.9 1
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.40 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4
Composite PMI (points) 52.50 52.3 52.5 53 53.2

Consumer Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Consumer Confidence (points) -14.00 -19 -18 -18 -17
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.50 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) 1.60 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.7
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 420380.00 422686 422667 425943 426686
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 438073.00 442601 447738 445082 444644
Personal Savings (%) 8.90 9.5 9.8 9.9 9.5
Net Lending to Individuals MoM (GBP Million) 9533.00 6800 6600 7500 8000
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 2.10 2.15 1.79 1.79 1.79
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 1807.00 1525 1695 1934 1834
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) -48.00 -22 -12 -5 2

Housing Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Housing Starts (units) 33960.00 30261 37677 34639 34979
Construction Output (%) -2.30 0.5 1.2 2 3
Housing Index (points) 516.00 522 524 528 529
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 58.20 57 59.1 64 65
House Price Index YoY (%) 0.10 1.5 2 2.2 2.5
RICS House Price Balance (%) -30.00 -5 -2 2 5
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (%) 0.10 0.1 -0.4 0.5 0.1
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (%) 1.80 2 2.2 2.5 2.7
Mortgage Rate (%) 6.60 6.85 6.85 7.1 7.1
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 553.70 553 553 567 569
Home Loans (GBP Million) 7727.00 5200 5100 5500 5800
Construction Orders (%) -18.10 -20 -12 10 5
Construction PMI (points) 44.70 45.5 45.8 46 48