United Kingdom | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

UK GDP growth is expected to ease in 2017 mainly due to slower consumer spending as rising inflation squeezes household budget. Still, the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its equilibrium rate of around 4.5 percent in the near term although wage growth is likely to remain low, resulting in falling real wages. Inflation is forecast to peak just below 3 percent in the fourth quarter of the year. In addition, business investment and exports are likely to be supported by depreciation of the sterling and the expected pickup in global growth. The Bank of England is likely to start raising rates in mid-2018. As for the UK public finances, government net borrowing is expected to fall this year to 2.6 percent of GDP amid steady economic growth and strong tax receipts. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.60 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -3073.00 -1100 -2100 -3800 -4500 -1000 GBP Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 89.30 87 87 89 89 85 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 1.30 1.28 1.26 1.25 1.24 1.1 [+]
Stock Market 7362.63 7300 7220 7150 7080 6260 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.19 1.25 1.26 1.28 1.29 1.43 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.9 percent [+]
GDP 2618.89 2820 2820 3050 3050 3290 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 471524.00 478650 480960 482820 484800 511230 GBP Million [+]
Gross National Product 494149.00 499580 502360 506570 509600 529390 GBP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 78855.00 78910 79110 79210 79420 81940 GBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 41602.98 42060 42060 42600 42600 43870 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38901.05 39740 39740 40200 40200 41100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 3110.00 3230 3250 3129 3127 3350 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 26637.00 25900 26120 26500 26469 27300 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 41736.00 42500 42830 41905 41847 44700 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 7444.00 7590 7610 7494 7478 7990 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 18925.00 20870 21170 18825 18811 23400 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Services 337630.00 340200 341900 342593 344321 374500 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 18292.00 18290 18370 18509 18526 19900 GBP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 30815.00 30940 31200 31250 31300 31800 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 814.50 807 809 811 813 833 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 8478.00 8600 8620 8670 8700 8960 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 23532.00 23550 23590 23610 23640 23990 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 74.90 74.6 74.5 75.37 75.2 74.1 percent [+]
Claimant Count Change 5.90 15 12 16 11 6 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 78.50 78.7 79 79.2 79.2 82 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.20 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.4 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.20 12.8 13 13.1 13.2 14.6 percent [+]
Labour Costs 102.90 104 105 105 105 110 Index Points [+]
Productivity 101.80 104 104 105 105 110 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 774.00 780 783 784 785 792 Thousand [+]
Wages 503.00 507 508 510 512 532 GBP/Week [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 583.00 587 589 591 593 614 GBP/Week [+]
Wage Growth 1.80 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.5 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 7.50 7.5 7.5 8 8 9 GBP/Hour [+]
Population 65.81 65.81 65.81 66.29 66.29 67.16 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 63.50 63.5 63.5 63.7 63.8 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 66 [+]
Wages High Skilled 2140.00 2290 2290 2310 2310 2490 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1152.50 1240 1240 1290 1290 1520 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1043.60 1120 1120 1170 1170 1470 GBP/Month [+]
Average Weekly Hours 32.10 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.3 Hours [+]
Employment Change 0.40 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1190.00 1300 1300 1310 1310 1550 GBP/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.60 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.30 107 109 111 114 134 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.30 107 109 111 114 132 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 103.80 107 109 111 113 133 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.40 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 105.48 109 111 113 115 132 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.30 3.6 3.2 3 2.9 2.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 98.00 96 94 95 93 95 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 98.10 101 102 103 104 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.30 3 2.8 2.7 2.6 2 percent [+]
Producer Prices 110.40 114 116 118 120 136 Index Points [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.80 3 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.2 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 102.00 106 108 110 112 126 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 104.60 108 109 111 113 123 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.29 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 2 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 82402.00 88900 91700 93200 95600 122400 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1661888.00 1776000 1830200 1865000 1889000 2510800 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1652235.00 1781000 1843900 1885000 1910700 2529100 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2724725.00 2839200 2884500 2947000 2999800 3420000 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 150765.55 159000 162000 164000 168000 205000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3785202.00 3850000 3910000 3970000 4050000 4510000 GBP Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 405132.00 420000 423000 425000 427000 458000 GBP Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2320407.00 2380000 2400000 2420000 2440000 2720000 GBP Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 1.25 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 230.45 230 230 225 225 218 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -3073.00 -1100 -2100 -3800 -4500 -1000 GBP Million [+]
Exports 49657.00 43000 42700 43300 43200 43700 GBP Million [+]
Imports 52730.00 44100 44800 47100 47700 44700 GBP Million [+]
Current Account -16895.00 -19320 -27230 -21210 -14640 -22840 GBP Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.40 -4 -4 -3.7 -3.7 -1.5 percent [+]
External Debt 6046609.00 6297000 6345000 6372000 6423000 6811000 GBP Million [+]
Terms of Trade 99.90 96.4 97.5 98.2 98.4 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 11270.00 17800 42100 12100 15400 36900 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 5114.00 -500 14900 44100 26300 15900 GBP Million [+]
Gold Reserves 310.29 310 310 310 310 310 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 944.00 950 950 950 950 880 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 5.08 5.08 5.08 5.08 5.08 5.08 [+]
Tourism Revenues 2050.00 2460 2080 1400 2100 2490 GBP Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3520.00 3290 2760 2680 3460 2990 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 1393.00 1181 1170 1195 1219 1273 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.30 87 87 89 89 85 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.00 -2.6 -2.6 -2.9 -2.9 -0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -7182.00 16850 9230 19700 21600 9980 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending 91945.00 92750 93050 93300 93660 95590 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 42.10 43.4 43.4 43.6 43.6 44.3 percent [+]
Government Debt -6278.00 -8960 -6540 -3250 -3970 -5460 GBP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 54216.80 54769 55109 55300 55490 56949 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 3140.00 3840 2910 3070 3040 2210 persons [+]
Government Revenues 54304.00 53200 55510 57020 55960 61870 GBP Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 1.00 6 4 7 6 2 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.30 54.1 54.5 52.2 55.1 53.1 [+]
Services PMI 53.40 52.4 51.9 52.1 52.2 54.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -0.20 1.7 1.5 1.8 2 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.10 -0.1 0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.40 2 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.50 82 82.1 82.2 82.3 81.7 percent [+]
New Orders 12866.00 14650 14880 14970 15000 15980 GBP Million [+]
Factory Orders 16.00 7 2 4 6 -2 Net Balance [+]
Changes in Inventories -538.00 488 208 20.49 140 207 GBP Million [+]
Bankruptcies 3967.00 3520 3400 3610 3580 4000 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 108645.00 110000 111000 112000 113000 121000 GBP Million [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -49.60 -38 -16 2 4 11.6 [+]
Car Production 136119.00 161000 121000 161500 159400 132000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 243454.00 468000 187000 565000 261000 196000 Cars [+]
Small Business Sentiment 16.00 14 10 15 11 2 [+]
Steel Production 747.00 610 680 670 630 850 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Private Investment 0.60 0.5 -0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
Mining Production -1.90 1.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 2 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.54 5.54 5.59 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 7.00 7 7 6 6 5 [+]
Composite Pmi 53.80 53.8 53.6 53.9 54 52.8 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 82 82 83 83 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 9 9 8 8 6 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 7.00 6 6 6 6 5 [+]
Electricity Production 26128.00 25900 29900 26800 24900 30200 Gigawatt-hour [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -10.00 -8 -10 -9 -7 2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.60 0.1 0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.90 3 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 310357.00 313000 314000 315000 316000 323000 GBP Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 304966.00 321400 327200 332500 338600 394400 GBP Million [+]
Personal Savings 1.70 5.2 6.8 7 7 7.9 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 2.25 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 87.60 86.2 85.9 85.7 85.6 78 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 126.42 126 126 124 124 119 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1732.00 1510 1680 1770 1850 2430 GBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.47 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.44 1.4 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Starts 45340.00 40520 36210 41050 43110 44750 [+]
Construction Output -0.30 2.3 2 1.7 1.2 1.8 percent [+]
Housing Index 706.80 732 742 751 763 890 Index Points [+]
Mortgage Approvals 65.20 65.1 67.2 68.6 69.4 97.6 Thousand [+]
Mortgage Applications 40347.00 41500 42900 43300 44600 52600 Units [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.50 63 63 63.1 63.1 61.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders 3.70 2.4 1 1.6 1.9 1 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 54.80 54.8 52.5 53.6 53.7 52.4 [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 17 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45.43 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]