United Kingdom - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

UK GDP growth is expected to slow further in 2018 as public spending cuts and Brexit-related uncertainty weigh on the economy. Still, the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its equilibrium rate of around 4.5 percent in the near term although wage growth is likely to remain low, resulting in falling real wages. Inflation is forecast to fall towards the Bank of England's 2 percent target over the next 12 months, easing the squeeze on households' finances, and house price inflation is seen to average just over 3 percent. In addition, business investment and exports are likely to be supported by the pickup in global growth. Interest rates are set to rise slowly. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.8 percent
Inflation Rate 2.40 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2 2 percent
Interest Rate 0.50 0.75 1 1 1.25 2 percent
Balance of Trade -2790.00 -3000 -3500 -3700 -3500 -1800 GBP Million
Government Debt to GDP 85.30 86.5 86.5 85.1 85.1 82.1 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.32
 1.3 1.28 1.25 1.23 1.15
Stock Market 7600.45
points		 7377 7180 6989 6802 6104
Government Bond 10Y 1.28
percent		 1.39 1.54 1.7 1.88 2.81
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20
percent		 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.20
percent		 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5
GDP 2622.43
USD Billion		 3050 3050 3180 3180 3290
GDP Constant Prices 504195.00
GBP Million		 504741 509553 510750 507469 524437
Gross National Product 511762.00
GBP Million		 507076 512459 518415 506350 527428
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 85609.00
GBP Million		 86669 87906 86722 87053 90474
GDP per capita 42514.49
USD		 42800 42800 43200 43200 43800
GDP per capita PPP 39753.24
USD		 40200 40200 40700 40700 41100
GDP From Agriculture 2910.00
GBP Million		 2984 2993 2948 2986 3081
GDP From Construction 27948.00
GBP Million		 28284 28551 28311 28422 29385
GDP From Manufacturing 45786.00
GBP Million		 45503 46409 46381 45470 47764
GDP From Mining 4577.00
GBP Million		 4725 4525 4637 4670 4657
GDP From Public Administration 20710.00
GBP Million		 20800 20984 20979 21047 21597
GDP From Services 358521.00
GBP Million		 358710 362131 363182 360811 372709
GDP From Transport 19103.00
GBP Million		 19339 19607 19351 19486 20179
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.20
percent		 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.8
Employed Persons 32394.00
Thousand		 32280 32290 32320 32340 32700
Unemployed Persons 886.20
Thousand 		849 855 866 870 885
Part Time Employment 8636.00
Thousand		 8730 8760 8800 8820 8960
Full Time Employment 23758.00
Thousand		 23660 23670 23740 23760 23990
Employment Rate 75.60
percent		 75.5 75.2 75.2 75.1 74.6
Claimant Count Change -7.70
Thousand		 9 10 5 7 6
Labor Force Participation Rate 79.00
percent		 79.6 80 79.9 79.9 81
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.10
percent		 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 2
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.50
percent		 11 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.9
Labour Costs 103.80
Index Points		 106 106 106 107 110
Productivity 101.20
Index Points		 104 104 105 105 108
Job Vacancies 818.00
Thousand		 820 816 811 805 792
Wages 516.00
GBP/Week		 520 522 524 526 539
Wage Growth 2.50
percent		 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.2
Wages in Manufacturing 599.00
GBP/Week		 604 606 608 610 622
Minimum Wages 7.83
GBP/Hour		 7.83 7.83 8 8 8.5
Population 66.19
Million		 66.19 66.19 66.36 66.36 66.98
Retirement Age Women 65.00
 65 65 65.5 65.5 66
Retirement Age Men 65.00
 65 65 65.5 65.5 66
Living Wage Family 1280.00
GBP/Month		 1350 1350 1440 1440 1520
Living Wage Individual 970.00
GBP/Month		 1170 1170 1290 1290 1370
Average Weekly Hours 31.80
Hours		 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.3 32.3
Employment Change 146.00
Thousand		 -64 150 100 85 110
Wages Low Skilled 1330.00
GBP/Month		 1350 1350 1450 1450 1550
Wages High Skilled 2210.00
GBP/Month		 2360 2360 2410 2410 2490
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.40
percent		 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2 2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent		 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.80
Index Points		 107 107 107 108 112
Harmonised Consumer Prices 105.80
Index Points		 107 107 107 108 112
Core Consumer Prices 105.90
Index Points		 107 108 107 109 113
Core Inflation Rate 2.10
percent		 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2
GDP Deflator 103.11
Index Points		 104 105 106 107 112
Producer Prices Change 2.90
percent		 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5
Export Prices 113.40
Index Points		 114 114 115 115 119
Import Prices 111.40
Index Points		 112 112 113 113 116
Food Inflation 2.30
percent		 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2
Inflation Expectations 2.90
percent		 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2
Producer Prices 113.60
Index Points		 114 115 115 116 120
CPI Housing Utilities 103.50
Index Points		 105 105 105 107 110
CPI Transportation 109.50
Index Points		 108 110 109 110 115
Core Producer Prices 111.80
Index Points		 113 113 114 116 119
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.50
percent		 0.75 1 1 1.25 2
Interbank Rate 0.74
percent		 0.99 1.24 1.24 1.49 2.24
Money Supply M0 81741.00
GBP Million		 97500 99500 102100 104200 122400
Money Supply M1 1730542.00
GBP Million		 1955000 2029400 2071000 2111000 2510800
Money Supply M2 2372675.00
GBP Million		 2562000 2632100 2691000 2746000 3129100
Money Supply M3 2827671.00
GBP Million		 3063000 3110000 3164000 3204000 3420000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 162730.15
USD Million		 172000 176000 179000 183000 205000
Banks Balance Sheet 3760938.00
GBP Million		 4110000 4180000 4250000 4280000 4510000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 590042.00
GBP Million		 622000 629000 641000 647000 700200
Loans to Private Sector 2371585.00
GBP Million		 2470000 2510000 2550000 2580000 2810000
Deposit Interest Rate 0.25
percent		 0.5 0.75 0.75 1 1.75
Lending Rate 0.75
percent		 1 1.25 1.25 1.5 2.25
Private Debt to GDP 217.16
percent		 215 215 211 211 208
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -2790.00
GBP Million		 -3000 -3500 -3700 -3500 -1800
Exports 51846.00
GBP Million		 54800 55100 55400 55900 57700
Imports 54636.00
GBP Million		 57800 58600 59100 59400 59500
Current Account -17720.00
GBP Million		 -19800 -26700 -20400 -20470 -22800
Current Account to GDP -4.10
percent		 -3.7 -3.7 -2.5 -2.5 -2
External Debt 6412914.00
GBP Million		 6452000 6512000 6583000 6655000 6811000
Terms of Trade 101.80
Index Points		 102 102 102 102 103
Capital Flows 3074.00
GBP Million		 17900 40000 13600 16500 36900
Foreign Direct Investment -3896.00
GBP Million		 -10700 15200 36200 22500 15900
Gold Reserves 310.30
Tonnes		 310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production 955.00
BBL/D/1K		 750 750 650 650 550
Terrorism Index 5.10
 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
Tourism Revenues 1560.00
GBP Million		 2500 1900 1870 2600 2490
Tourist Arrivals 2590.00
Thousand		 3340 2810 3220 4010 3040
Weapons Sales 1214.00
USD Million		 1274 1188 1202 1215 1213
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 85.30
percent		 86.5 86.5 85.1 85.1 82.1
Government Budget -2.30
percent of GDP		 -2.2 -2.2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.6
Government Budget Value -3687.00
GBP Million		 -2400 1500 5100 -4400 2100
Government Spending 92555.00
GBP Million		 92467 93403 93758 93421 96131
Government Spending to GDP 41.10
percent		 41 41 41.5 41.5 42
Government Debt -3356.00
GBP Million		 -3220 -1420 -1240 -3210 -2460
Military Expenditure 48383.40
USD Million		 48729 48729 48888 49046 49776
Asylum Applications 2950.00
persons		 3070 2710 2980 2850 2210
Government Revenues 54010.00
GBP Million		 55400 57890 64450 57420 61870
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence -4.00
Index Points		 5 4 5 4 2
Manufacturing PMI 54.40
 55.4 56 55.7 55.5 53.4
Services PMI 55.10
Index Points		 53 53.4 53.8 54 54.1
Industrial Production 0.80
percent		 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.2
Industrial Production Mom -0.40
percent		 0.5 0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.5
Manufacturing Production 1.10
percent		 2.9 2.5 3 2.6 2.3
Capacity Utilization 82.90
percent		 83 83.2 83.2 83 82.7
New Orders 11628.00
GBP Million		 15290 15450 15620 15780 16480
Factory Orders 13.00
Net Balance		 5 3 2 2 -2
Changes in Inventories -96.00
GBP Million		 0.21 -39.23 89.67 139 240
Bankruptcies 4462.00
Companies		 4100 4400 4500 4900 4600
Corporate Profits 107899.00
GBP Million		 114000 114000 115000 116000 121000
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -53.60
 -16 -2 3 4 12
Car Production 137225.00
Units		 162000 115000 164200 162500 137000
Car Registrations 234945.00
 471000 175000 571000 267000 196000
Small Business Sentiment -5.00
 5 15 12 11 10
Internet Speed 16920.86
KBps		 20115 20629 21136 21634 26174
IP Addresses 27493519.00
IP		 27792189 27772468 27811855 27813411 27862632
Leading Economic Index 0.20
percent		 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Mining Production -0.30
percent		 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 2
Private Investment -0.40
percent		 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
Steel Production 582.00
Thousand Tonnes		 620 720 680 640 850
Competitiveness Index 5.51
Points		 5.51 5.51 5.55 5.55 5.61
Competitiveness Rank 8.00
 8 8 7 7 6
Composite Pmi 55.20
 53.8 52.9 53 53.4 52.8
Corruption Index 82.00
Points		 83 83 84 84 85
Corruption Rank 8.00
 8 8 7 7 6
Ease of Doing Business 7.00
 6 6 5 5 5
Electricity Production 30192.00
Gigawatt-hour		 26000 30000 27100 25100 30200
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -9.00
Index Points		 -12 -10 -10 -8 -6
Retail Sales MoM 1.30
percent		 0.2 0.7 -0.2 0.4 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 3.90
percent		 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7
Consumer Spending 331040.00
GBP Million		 331712 334590 335344 333956 344363
Disposable Personal Income 333116.00
GBP Million		 336100 337100 338000 340500 361400
Personal Savings 4.30
percent		 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.9 7.9
Bank Lending Rate 1.50
percent		 1.75 2 2 2.25 3
Households Debt To Gdp 86.70
percent of GDP		 88.5 88.5 87 87 85
Households Debt To Income 126.42
percent		 130 130 132 132 132
Consumer Credit 1405.00
GBP Million		 1770 1680 1720 1790 2130
Gasoline Prices 1.69
USD/Liter		 1.6 1.51 1.43 1.35 0.78
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Starts 39890.00
 42740 38950 43220 43400 44750
Construction Output 1.60
percent		 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.2
Housing Index 730.30
Index Points		 725 728 732 736 749
Mortgage Approvals 64.53
Thousand		 72.9 73.7 75.1 77.2 97.6
Home Ownership Rate 63.40
percent		 63.1 63.1 62 62 61.5
Mortgage Applications 39244.00
Units		 45800 47600 47900 48400 52600
Construction Orders -6.60
percent		 2.5 1.8 2.4 2.2 2.5
Construction Pmi 53.10
 51.5 52.9 53.2 53.6 52.9
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00
percent		 19 19 18 18 17
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent		 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 25.80
percent		 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80
percent		 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00
percent		 12 12 12 12 12
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 6.92
celsius		 13.43 6.35 4.35 10.44 8.7
Precipitation 224.90
mm		 95.45 126 101 104 101