Markets Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Currency 1.26 1.29 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.24
Stock Market (points) 6845.17 7435 7368 7300 7234 6975
Government Bond 10Y (%) 1.25 1.63 1.68 1.74 1.8 2.04
Overview Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.60 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.50 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.10 4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8
Inflation Rate (%) 2.40 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.10 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5
Interest Rate (%) 0.75 1 1 1.25 1.25 2
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -3300.00 -1900 -2300 -1900 -2300 -400
Current Account (GBP Million) -20317.00 -26700 -20400 -20470 -17700 -22800
Current Account to GDP (%) -4.10 -3.7 -3 -3 -3 -2.8
Government Debt to GDP (%) 85.30 85 83.8 83.8 83.8 82.5
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.30 -2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4
Business Confidence (Index Points) -16.00 -8 -12 1 5 2
Manufacturing PMI 53.10 55.1 52.3 54.4 54.2 51
Services PMI (Index Points) 50.40 51 48 52 54.5 54.1
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) -13.00 -16 -20 -8 -7 -6
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.50 0.7 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 19
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
GDP Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.60 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.50 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5
GDP (USD Billion) 2622.43 2850 3060 3060 3060 3170
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 509120.00 510081 511057 513115 516757 526016
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 515919.00 512459 518927 523142 523658 528469
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 85936.00 87596 86824 86417 87225 90333
GDP per capita (USD) 42514.49 42800 43200 43200 43200 43800
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 39753.24 40200 40700 40700 40700 41100
GDP From Agriculture (GBP Million) 2927.00 2993 2960 2963 2971 3087
GDP From Construction (GBP Million) 28672.00 28647 28229 28464 29102 29542
GDP From Manufacturing (GBP Million) 45701.00 46423 46414 46075 46387 47873
GDP From Mining (GBP Million) 4692.00 4524 4646 4679 4762 4665
GDP From Public Administration (GBP Million) 20726.00 20989 21030 21041 21037 21645
GDP From Services (GBP Million) 362756.00 362731 364117 366292 368197 374063
GDP From Transport (GBP Million) 19568.00 19670 19476 19714 19862 20285
Labour Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.10 4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8
Employed Persons (Thousand) 32476.00 32510 32580 32620 32710 33700
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 992.60 942 951 955 964 1015
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 8508.00 8460 8420 8400 8420 8190
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 23968.00 24050 24160 24220 24290 25510
Employment Rate (%) 75.70 75.2 75.2 75.1 75 74.6
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 21.90 10 5 7 11 6
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.00 80 79.9 79.9 80.2 81
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.00 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 11.40 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.9
Labour Costs (Index Points) 103.90 106 106 107 108 110
Productivity (Index Points) 101.20 103 103 104 105 108
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 848.00 815 820 819 814 792
Wages (GBP/Week) 528.00 522 524 526 529 539
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 607.00 603 605 607 609 619
Wage Growth (%) 3.30 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.8
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 7.83 7.83 8 8 8 8.5
Population (Million) 66.19 66.19 66.36 66.36 66.36 66.98
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65.5 65.5 65.5 66
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65.5 65.5 65.5 66
Living Wage Family (GBP/Month) 1300.00 1350 1440 1440 1440 1520
Living Wage Individual (GBP/Month) 895.00 1170 1290 1290 1290 1370
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 32.20 32.2 32.2 32.3 32.3 32.3
Employment Change (Thousand) 79.00 150 100 85 -82 110
Wages Low Skilled (GBP/Month) 1320.00 1350 1450 1450 1450 1550
Wages High Skilled (GBP/Month) 2330.00 2360 2410 2410 2410 2490
Prices Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Inflation Rate (%) 2.40 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.10 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI (Index Points) 106.70 107 107 108 109 112
Harmonised Consumer Prices (Index Points) 106.74 107 107 108 109 112
Core Consumer Prices (Index Points) 106.50 108 107 108 109 113
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.90 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
GDP Deflator (Index Points) 104.22 105 106 107 108 112
Producer Prices Change (%) 3.30 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.5
Food Inflation (%) 0.90 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.20 2.6 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.2
Producer Prices (Index Points) 115.10 115 115 117 117 120
CPI Housing Utilities (Index Points) 105.80 105 105 106 107 110
CPI Transportation (Index Points) 110.80 110 109 113 114 115
Core Producer Prices (Index Points) 113.00 113 114 115 115 119
Money Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Interest Rate (%) 0.75 1 1 1.25 1.25 2
Money Supply M0 (GBP Million) 81737.00 89500 98100 104200 106900 122400
Money Supply M1 (GBP Million) 1781457.00 1979400 2041000 2111000 2181000 2510800
Interbank Rate (%) 0.90 0.85 0.85 1.1 1.1 1.85
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 2415645.00 2602100 2651000 2746000 2856000 3129100
Money Supply M3 (GBP Million) 2879456.00 3020000 3124000 3184000 3224000 3420000
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 173215.06 172000 175000 179000 185000 205000
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 3763025.00 4180000 4250000 4280000 4320000 4510000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 592950.00 615000 625000 636000 645000 689200
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2438704.00 2510000 2550000 2580000 2630000 2810000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.75 0.75 1.5
Lending Rate (%) 1.00 1 1 1.25 1.25 2
Private Debt to GDP (%) 229.40 227 225 225 225 221
Trade Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -3300.00 -1900 -2300 -1900 -2300 -400
Current Account (GBP Million) -20317.00 -26700 -20400 -20470 -17700 -22800
Current Account to GDP (%) -4.10 -3.7 -3 -3 -3 -2.8
Imports (GBP Million) 56683.00 56500 57100 57800 58500 59500
Exports (GBP Million) 53383.00 55100 55400 55900 56200 57700
External Debt (GBP Million) 6382913.00 6512000 6583000 6655000 6669000 6811000
Capital Flows (GBP Million) 13843.00 40000 13600 16500 16500 36900
Foreign Direct Investment (GBP Million) 22199.00 15200 36200 22500 -9700 15900
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 310.30 310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 842.00 950 800 800 800 750
Tourism Revenues (GBP Million) 2008.00 1900 1870 2600 2700 2490
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 3234.00 2810 3220 4010 3490 3040
Government Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Government Debt to GDP (%) 85.30 85 83.8 83.8 83.8 82.5
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.30 -2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -3357.00 1500 5100 -4400 -2200 2100
Government Spending (GBP Million) 92514.00 93285 93567 93224 93902 96199
Government Spending to GDP (%) 41.10 41 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.1
Government Debt (GBP Million) -7956.00 -1420 -1240 -3210 -3200 -2460
Asylum Applications (persons) 2925.00 2710 2980 2850 2900 2210
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 59931.00 57890 64450 57420 58900 61870
Taxes Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 19
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Social Security Rate (%) 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 12.00 12 12 12 12 12
Business Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Business Confidence (Index Points) -16.00 -8 -12 1 5 2
Manufacturing PMI 53.10 55.1 52.3 54.4 54.2 51
Services PMI (Index Points) 50.40 51 48 52 54.5 54.1
Industrial Production (%) -0.80 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2
Industrial Production Mom (%) -0.60 0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.6 0.5
Manufacturing Production (%) -1.00 2.5 3 2.6 2.5 2.3
Capacity Utilization (%) 80.20 83.2 83.2 83 82.9 82.7
New Orders (GBP Million) 11075.00 15450 15620 15780 15820 16480
Factory Orders (Net Balance) 10.00 5 2 2 1 -2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 4308.00 4400 4500 4900 4800 4600
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 114178.00 114000 115000 116000 116000 121000
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -67.50 -67 -76 -48 -20 12
Car Production (Units) 140374.00 115000 164200 162500 165000 137000
Car Registrations 158639.00 175000 571000 267000 485000 196000
Small Business Sentiment -18.00 1 -2 5 10 10
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.40 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5
Private Investment (%) -1.20 -0.6 -1 0.6 0.5 0.5
Mining Production (%) -1.70 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.4 2
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 660.00 720 680 640 640 850
Composite Pmi 50.70 52.9 51.5 53.4 54.1 52.8
Electricity Production (Gigawatt-hour) 25086.00 30000 27100 25100 26000 30200
Consumer Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) -13.00 -16 -20 -8 -7 -6
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.50 0.7 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) 2.20 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.7
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 334676.00 334731 336610 337699 339696 345188
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 335929.00 337100 338000 340500 342200 361400
Personal Savings (%) 4.40 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 7.9
Bank Lending Rate (%) 1.75 1.75 1.75 2 2 2.75
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 86.10 88.5 87 87 87 85
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 894.00 1680 1720 1790 1850 2130
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.60 1.65 1.62 1.59 1.56 1.45
Housing Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Housing Starts (units) 41190.00 38950 43220 43400 45100 44750
Construction Output (%) 3.80 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.2
Housing Index (Index Points) 726.90 755 762 769 775 795
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 67.09 66.2 70.1 75.5 79.6 97.6
Mortgage Applications (Units) 39697.00 42600 44900 45400 48900 52600
Home Ownership Rate (%) 63.40 63.1 62.5 62.5 62.5 62
Construction Orders (%) -30.70 1.5 2.5 4.5 3.6 2.5
Construction Pmi 53.40 53.8 50.8 53.6 53.2 52.9


UK GDP growth is expected to slow further in 2018 as public spending cuts and Brexit-related uncertainty weigh on the economy. Still, the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its equilibrium rate of around 4.5 percent in the near term although wage growth is likely to remain low, resulting in falling real wages. Inflation is forecast to fall towards the Bank of England's 2 percent target until the end of the year, easing the squeeze on households' finances, and house price inflation is seen to average just over 3 percent. In addition, business investment and exports are likely to be supported by the pickup in global growth. Interest rates are set to rise slowly. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.