Markets Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Stock Market (points) 7000.08 6883 6750 6619 6490 6233
Currency 1.40 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.33
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.75 0.83 0.89 0.96 1.03 1.18

Overview Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 1.30 4.8 4.2 2.3 1.5 0.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -7.30 17.5 7.5 3.8 4 6.5
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.00 5.5 5.8 5.6 6.4 6.1
Inflation Rate (%) 0.40 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.7 2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.10 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Interest Rate (%) 0.10 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -7123.00 -1150 240 -2800 1200 -800
Current Account (GBP Million) -26300.00 -18000 -20000 -27400 -18700 -22600
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.50 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -3.6 -3.6
Government Debt to GDP (%) 100.20 107 107 107 110 110
Government Budget (% of GDP) -16.90 -10 -10 -10 -4.4 -4.4
Business Confidence (points) -22.00 -10 -16 -8 -6 -6
Services PMI (points) 56.30 54 53.2 52 53.2 52.9
Manufacturing PMI (points) 58.90 55 53.6 52 52.8 52.6
Consumer Confidence (points) -16.00 -14 -10 -8 -6 -6
Retail Sales MoM (%) 2.10 -1.6 -0.8 0.6 1.2 0.7
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 19
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45

GDP Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 1.30 4.8 4.2 2.3 1.5 0.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -7.30 17.5 7.5 3.8 4 6.5
GDP (USD Billion) 2829.11 2460 2460 2460 2990 2990
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 504742.00 507870 503261 534316 521339 555226
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 538785.00 520993 536828 551136 548382 584026
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 93469.00 90993 88593 89277 96101 102348
GDP per capita (USD) 43688.40 41100 41100 41100 41900 41900
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 46699.30 45200 45200 45200 45910 45910
Economic Activity Index (%) -7.80 15.9 7.5 3.8 4 6.5
GDP From Agriculture (GBP Million) 2922.00 3052 3227 3013 3028 3225
GDP From Construction (GBP Million) 29141.00 29186 24024 29549 31255 33287
GDP From Manufacturing (GBP Million) 45261.00 43788 42399 47276 46599 49628
GDP From Mining (GBP Million) 4719.00 4812 5728 5003 4694 4999
GDP From Public Administration (GBP Million) 24633.00 23279 28696 21877 25589 27252
GDP From Services (GBP Million) 359787.00 360538 364494 382166 371574 395726
GDP From Transport (GBP Million) 17224.00 17822 16031 20938 17596 18740

Labour Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.00 5.5 5.8 5.6 6.4 6.1
Employed Persons (Thousand) 32374.00 29750 29950 30100 30900 32200
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 2682.80 2900 2800 2550 2510 2050
Employment Rate (%) 75.00 75.2 75.4 75.8 76 76.2
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 86.60 -86 -40 -32 -60 -26
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.00 78.4 78.5 78.8 79 79.2
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.00 2.5 2.2 2 1.5 1.4
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 14.50 15 15.3 15.1 15.9 15.9
Productivity (points) 100.00 99.1 99.5 100 101 101
Labour Costs (points) 112.00 118 112 114 114 116
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 601.00 560 640 690 710 750
Wages (GBP/Week) 572.00 542 574 580 582 589
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 630.00 606 637 641 641 651
Wage Growth (%) 4.80 2.2 2.5 1.6 1.7 1.5
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 8.72 9.15 9.15 9.15 9.15 9.5
Population (Million) 67.03 67.33 67.33 67.33 67.71 67.71
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 29.90 30 29 31 31 32
Employment Change (Thousand) -147.00 36 25 50 75 30

Prices Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Inflation Rate (%) 0.40 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.7 2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.10 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 109.10 109 110 114 111 113
Harmonised Consumer Prices (points) 109.09 110 110 114 111 113
Core Consumer Prices (points) 109.60 110 111 114 112 114
Core Inflation Rate (%) 0.90 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.8
GDP Deflator (points) 107.73 105 113 110 111 113
Producer Prices Change (%) 0.90 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.3
Food Inflation (%) -0.60 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.4 2.4
Inflation Expectations (%) 2.70 2.2 1.7 1.9 2 1.9
Retail Price Index (%) 1.40 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.2
Producer Prices (points) 110.00 110 110 123 110 113
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 105.10 107 107 112 107 109
CPI Transportation (points) 115.20 113 113 118 116 119
Core Producer Prices (points) 111.20 112 112 121 112 115

Money Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Interest Rate (%) 0.10 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Interbank Rate (%) 0.08 0.09 0.09 1.1 0.09 0.09
Money Supply M0 (GBP Million) 94642.00 99700 100500 99100 101500 102900
Money Supply M1 (GBP Million) 2216139.00 2259000 2298000 2250800 2295100 2360800
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 2841549.00 2899100 2926000 2919100 2934200 2989100
Money Supply M3 (GBP Million) 3284227.00 3380000 3422000 3410000 3460000 3550000
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 4254940.00 4360000 4450000 4590000 4630000 4700000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 939052.00 937200 951600 945200 941500 936100
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2654482.00 2860000 2860000 2880000 2890000 2920000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 1.25 0 0
Lending Rate (%) 0.35 0.35 0.35 1.25 0.35 0.35
Private Debt to GDP (%) 190.30 230 230 230 227 227

Trade Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -7123.00 -1150 240 -2800 1200 -800
Current Account (GBP Million) -26300.00 -18000 -20000 -27400 -18700 -22600
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.50 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -3.6 -3.6
Imports (GBP Million) 53302.00 47200 49100 51500 52600 55500
Exports (GBP Million) 46179.00 47440 52000 52700 53200 54700
External Debt (GBP Million) 7287334.00 7754000 7702000 7697000 7664000 7627000
Capital Flows (GBP Million) 37969.00 18900 16400 12900 22600 16600
Foreign Direct Investment (GBP Million) -2769.00 16200 -10400 9900 18900 10500
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 310.29 310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 980.00 750 750 750 800 800
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) -16442.00 -13260 -12200 -10800 -12800 -14800
Tourism Revenues (GBP Million) 780.00 1850 1800 1940 1750 2240
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 1446.00 2800 2650 2440 2890 2910

Government Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Government Debt to GDP (%) 100.20 107 107 107 110 110
Government Budget (% of GDP) -16.90 -10 -10 -10 -4.4 -4.4
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -19147.00 -32600 -32200 -18440 -17500 -12600
Government Spending (GBP Million) 104020.00 109000 108200 109500 108400 111200
Government Spending to GDP (%) 54.40 46 46 46 42 42
Government Debt (GBP Billion) 2131.20 2510 2490 2210 2060 2300
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 63187.00 49800 51200 62270 57600 65270
Asylum Applications (persons) 3160.00 1380 1250 1910 1150 1810

Taxes Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 19
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate (%) 20.00 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate (%) 27.80 27.8 27.8 25.8 27.8 27.8
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 14.00 14 14 12 14 14

Business Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Business Confidence (points) -22.00 -10 -16 -8 -6 -6
Services PMI (points) 56.30 54 53.2 52 53.2 52.9
Manufacturing PMI (points) 58.90 55 53.6 52 52.8 52.6
Industrial Production (%) -3.50 14.8 5.1 5 3.2 2.6
Industrial Production Mom (%) 1.00 0.8 0.6 1 0.8 0.7
Manufacturing Production (%) -4.20 19 5.9 6 4.5 3.6
Capacity Utilization (%) 73.90 78 77 75 76 80
New Orders (GBP Million) 9923.00 12500 13200 12180 12500 13600
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -5.00 10 9 12 10 8
Bankruptcies (Companies) 3071.00 4500 4200 5800 5100 4400
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 116632.00 114000 112200 115000 119000 122000
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 60.40 25 9 5 10 5
Car Production (Units) 105008.00 108000 119200 87000 81000 99000
Car Registrations 283964.00 185000 289000 136000 256200 169000
Small Business Sentiment -7.00 -2 15 6 9 5
Leading Economic Index (%) -1.60 4.8 4.2 2.3 1.5 0.9
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 710.00 850 800 800 800 850
Private Investment (%) 5.90 4 4.5 3.6 2.5 1.5
Mining Production (%) -11.30 10.6 6.2 4 3.6 2.3
Composite PMI (points) 56.40 54.5 53.2 53.4 54 53.8

Consumer Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Consumer Confidence (points) -16.00 -14 -10 -8 -6 -6
Retail Sales MoM (%) 2.10 -1.6 -0.8 0.6 1.2 0.7
Retail Sales YoY (%) -3.70 7.4 6.5 2.6 2 3.4
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 318772.00 326787 315550 352034 330885 352393
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 370173.00 351882 414594 360337 385469 410524
Personal Savings (%) 15.60 12 13 10 9 7
Bank Lending Rate (%) 1.10 1.1 1.1 2 1.1 1.1
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 88.90 92 92 92 88 88
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) -45.00 20 9 7 5 9
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) -1246.00 -3000 -771 725 725 -962
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.73 1.55 1.47 1.37 1.33 1.26

Housing Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Housing Starts (units) 42110.00 29460 30900 32330 34600 38710
Construction Output (%) -4.30 25.1 6.5 5.1 4.3 3.8
Housing Index (points) 439.00 436 430 425 422 429
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 87.67 76 62 66 74 78
Home Loans (GBP Million) 6171.00 6500 4900 3600 4000 2900
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.20 64 64 64 63 63
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 463.08 468 466 464 460 466
Construction Orders (%) -12.90 37 4.5 5 4.4 3.7
Construction PMI (points) 61.70 55 53.2 53.8 54 54.5


This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.