United Kingdom - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

UK GDP growth is expected to slow further in 2018 as public spending cuts and Brexit-related uncertainty weigh on the economy. Still, the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its equilibrium rate of around 4.5 percent in the near term although wage growth is likely to remain low, resulting in falling real wages. Inflation is forecast to fall towards the Bank of England's 2 percent target over the next 12 months, easing the squeeze on households' finances, and house price inflation is seen to average just over 3 percent. In addition, business investment and exports are likely to be supported by the pickup in global growth. Interest rates are set to rise slowly. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.8 percent
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2 percent
Interest Rate 0.50 0.75 0.75 1 1 2 percent
Balance of Trade -965.00 -3000 -3000 -3500 -3700 -1800 GBP Million
Government Debt to GDP 85.30 86.5 86.5 86.5 85.1 82.1 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 1.40
1.38 1.36 1.33 1.31 1.21
Stock Market 7421.03
points
6826 6656 6490 6327 5718
Government Bond 10Y 1.54
percent
1.53 1.71 1.91 2.14 3.36
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.40
percent
1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5
GDP 2647.90
USD Billion
3050 3050 3050 3180 3290
GDP Constant Prices 492785.00
GBP Million
492044 494312 499191 493758 513773
Gross National Product 508627.00
GBP Million
498093 506822 515239 504272 530289
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 84133.00
GBP Million
83404 83825 85227 82514 87716
GDP per capita 41602.98
USD
42600 42600 42600 43130 43870
GDP per capita PPP 38901.05
USD
40200 40200 40200 40700 41100
GDP From Agriculture 2627.00
GBP Million
2642 2672 2661 2660 2739
GDP From Construction 28021.00
GBP Million
28131 28249 28385 28407 29214
GDP From Manufacturing 44457.00
GBP Million
43733 44202 45035 44017 46350
GDP From Mining 4969.00
GBP Million
5155 5260 5034 5140 5181
GDP From Public Administration 19777.00
GBP Million
19915 19890 20034 19925 20619
GDP From Services 349531.00
GBP Million
349504 350514 354075 350674 364417
GDP From Transport 19246.00
GBP Million
19201 19168 19496 19395 20066
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.20
percent
4.3 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.8
Employed Persons 32262.00
Thousand
32160 32180 32190 32220 32700
Unemployed Persons 855.30
Thousand
852 849 855 866 885
Part Time Employment 8582.00
Thousand
8700 8730 8760 8800 8960
Full Time Employment 23679.00
Thousand
23640 23660 23670 23740 23990
Employment Rate 75.40
percent
75.6 75.5 75.2 75.2 74.6
Claimant Count Change 11.60
Thousand
11 9 10 5 6
Labor Force Participation Rate 78.80
percent
79.4 79.6 80 79.9 81
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.10
percent
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 2
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.50
percent
11.2 11 11.2 11.3 11.9
Labour Costs 105.50
Index Points
105 106 106 106 110
Productivity 101.90
Index Points
103 104 104 105 108
Job Vacancies 815.00
Thousand
785 786 787 785 792
Wages 513.00
GBP/Week
518 520 522 524 539
Wage Growth 2.80
percent
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.2
Wages in Manufacturing 596.00
GBP/Week
602 604 606 608 622
Minimum Wages 7.83
GBP/Hour
7.83 7.83 7.83 8 8.5
Population 65.81
Million
66.29 66.29 66.29 66.33 67.16
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65.5 66
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65.5 66
Living Wage Family 1280.00
GBP/Month
1350 1350 1350 1440 1520
Living Wage Individual 970.00
GBP/Month
1170 1170 1250 970 1470
Average Weekly Hours 32.00
Hours
32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.3
Employment Change 55.00
Thousand
91 -64 150 100 110
Wages Low Skilled 1330.00
GBP/Month
1350 1350 1350 1450 1550
Wages High Skilled 2210.00
GBP/Month
2360 2360 2360 2410 2490
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.50
percent
2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.00
Index Points
106 107 107 108 112
Harmonised Consumer Prices 105.00
Index Points
106 107 107 108 112
Core Consumer Prices 105.13
Index Points
106 107 108 108 113
Core Inflation Rate 2.30
percent
2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
GDP Deflator 104.55
Index Points
106 106 107 108 114
Producer Prices Change 2.40
percent
2.5 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5
Export Prices 112.80
Index Points
115 116 116 117 120
Import Prices 111.10
Index Points
112 113 113 114 116
Food Inflation 3.00
percent
2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2
Inflation Expectations 2.90
percent
2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2
Producer Prices 112.60
Index Points
113 114 115 116 120
CPI Housing Utilities 103.16
Index Points
105 105 105 106 110
CPI Transportation 106.77
Index Points
107 108 110 109 115
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.50
percent
0.75 0.75 1 1 2
Interbank Rate 0.75
percent
0.77 0.77 1.02 1.02 2.02
Money Supply M0 81518.00
GBP Million
95600 97500 99500 102100 122400
Money Supply M1 1715394.00
GBP Million
1889000 1955000 2029400 2071000 2510800
Money Supply M2 2363560.00
GBP Million
2510700 2562000 2632100 2691000 3129100
Money Supply M3 2828684.00
GBP Million
2999800 3063000 3110000 3164000 3420000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 164209.80
USD Million
168000 172000 176000 179000 205000
Banks Balance Sheet 3789669.00
GBP Million
4050000 4110000 4180000 4250000 4510000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 589865.00
GBP Million
611000 622000 629000 641000 700200
Loans to Private Sector 2381400.00
GBP Million
2440000 2470000 2510000 2550000 2810000
Deposit Interest Rate 0.25
percent
0.5 0.5 0.75 0.75 1.75
Lending Rate 0.75
percent
1 1 1.25 1.25 2.25
Private Debt to GDP 217.05
percent
215 215 215 211 208
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -965.00
GBP Million
-3000 -3000 -3500 -3700 -1800
Exports 52447.00
GBP Million
54200 54800 55100 55400 57700
Imports 53412.00
GBP Million
57200 57800 58600 59100 59500
Current Account -18443.00
GBP Million
-22700 -19800 -26700 -20400 -22800
Current Account to GDP -4.10
percent
-3.7 -3.7 -3.3 -2.5 -1.5
External Debt 6385526.00
GBP Million
6383000 6452000 6512000 6583000 6811000
Terms of Trade 101.50
Index Points
103 103 103 103 103
Capital Flows 24382.00
GBP Million
15400 17900 40000 13600 36900
Foreign Direct Investment 8667.00
GBP Million
26300 -700 15200 36200 15900
Gold Reserves 310.30
Tonnes
310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production 739.00
BBL/D/1K
750 750 750 700 550
Terrorism Index 5.10
5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
Tourism Revenues 1560.00
GBP Million
2100 2500 2240 1450 2490
Tourist Arrivals 2590.00
Thousand
3460 3340 2810 2300 2990
Weapons Sales 1214.00
USD Million
1336 1265 1194 1222 1278
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 85.30
percent
86.5 86.5 86.5 85.1 82.1
Government Budget -2.30
percent of GDP
-2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6
Government Budget Value 4950.00
GBP Million
21600 15980 9450 17400 9980
Government Spending 91747.00
GBP Million
92043 91976 92940 92294 95654
Government Spending to GDP 41.10
percent
41 41 41 41.5 42
Government Debt 262.00
GBP Million
-3970 -7850 -6130 -2020 -5460
Military Expenditure 54216.80
USD Million
54338 54671 55005 55195 57442
Asylum Applications 2935.00
persons
3040 3070 2710 2980 2210
Government Revenues 61424.00
GBP Million
55960 53400 57890 57450 61870
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence -4.00
Index Points
6 5 4 5 2
Manufacturing PMI 55.10
56.8 55.4 56 55.7 53.4
Services PMI 51.70
Index Points
53.6 53 53.4 53.8 54.1
Industrial Production 2.20
percent
2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1
Industrial Production Mom 0.10
percent
-0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.34 0.3
Manufacturing Production 2.50
percent
2.8 3.3 2.5 3 2.3
Capacity Utilization 81.20
percent
82.7 82.7 82.8 82.9 82.7
New Orders 12701.00
GBP Million
15000 15290 15450 15620 16480
Factory Orders 4.00
Net Balance
6 5 3 2 -2
Changes in Inventories -760.00
GBP Million
-477 -509 -136 126 101
Bankruptcies 4382.00
Companies
3580 3500 3600 4335 4000
Corporate Profits 109353.00
GBP Million
113000 114000 114000 115000 121000
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -44.70
-12 -6 2 3 12
Car Production 145475.00
Units
159400 162000 125000 164200 132000
Car Registrations 474069.00
261000 471000 190000 571000 196000
Small Business Sentiment 23.00
15 16 14 12 10
Internet Speed 16920.86
KBps
19592 20115 20629 21136 26174
IP Addresses 27493519.00
IP
27724943 27792189 27772468 27811855 27862632
Private Investment 0.30
percent
0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5
Mining Production 1.30
percent
2.5 2.4 2.5 2.3 2
Steel Production 574.00
Thousand Tonnes
630 620 720 680 850
Competitiveness Index 5.51
Points
5.51 5.51 5.51 5.55 5.61
Competitiveness Rank 8.00
8 8 8 7 6
Composite Pmi 52.50
54 53.8 52.9 53 52.8
Corruption Index 82.00
Points
83 83 83 84 85
Corruption Rank 8.00
8 8 8 7 6
Ease of Doing Business 7.00
6 6 6 7 5
Electricity Production 30349.00
Gigawatt-hour
24900 26000 30000 27100 30200
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -7.00
Index Points
-12 -12 -10 -10 -6
Retail Sales MoM -1.20
percent
0.4 0.2 0.7 -0.2 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 1.10
percent
1.9 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.7
Consumer Spending 325299.00
GBP Million
325802 326754 329528 326884 339153
Disposable Personal Income 332967.00
GBP Million
335600 336100 337100 338000 361400
Personal Savings 5.30
percent
4.9 4.8 4.5 4.7 7.9
Bank Lending Rate 1.50
percent
1.75 1.75 2 2 3
Households Debt To Gdp 86.50
percent of GDP
88.5 88.5 88.5 85 82
Households Debt To Income 126.42
percent
130 130 130 127 132
Consumer Credit 1647.00
GBP Million
1650 1770 1680 1720 2130
Gasoline Prices 1.68
USD/Liter
1.59 1.5 1.41 1.33 0.93
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Starts 35590.00
43110 42740 38950 43220 44750
Construction Output -3.00
percent
0.9 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.2
Housing Index 737.50
Index Points
732 734 736 738 749
Mortgage Approvals 63.91
Thousand
71.4 72.9 73.7 75.1 97.6
Mortgage Applications 38120.00
Units
44600 45800 47600 47900 52600
Home Ownership Rate 63.40
percent
63.1 63.1 63.1 62 61.5
Construction Orders -1.30
percent
2.9 2.5 1.8 2.4 2.5
Construction Pmi 47.00
52.6 51.5 52.9 53.2 52.9
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 18 17
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 25.80
percent
25.8 25.8 25.8 26 25.8
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80
percent
13.8 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.8
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00
percent
12 12 12 11.96 12
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 6.92
celsius
9.96 13.43 6.35 4.35 8.7
Precipitation 224.90
mm
73.51 95.45 126 101 101