The budget deficit in the UK widened to GBP 7.96 billion in October 2018 from GBP 6.37 billion in the same month a year earlier and larger an expected 5.35 billion gap. Excluding state-controlled banks, the deficit rose to GBP 8.82 billion from GBP 7.24 billion, also above market consensus of a GBP 6.15 billion gap. This was the biggest October shortfall for three years, mainly driven by an increase in government expenditure on goods and services, as well as social benefits. Meanwhile, tax receipts continued to grow robustly. Still, for the first seven months of the 2018/19 financial year, the budget deficit narrowed sharply by 30 percent to GBP 26.7 billion, the lowest in 13 years. Debt stood at GBP 1.79 trillion at the end of October equivalent to 84 percent of GDP, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points on October 2017. Government Debt in the United Kingdom averaged -4075.35 GBP Million from 1993 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 13262 GBP Million in January of 2017 and a record low of -19991 GBP Million in April of 2012.
Government Debt in the United Kingdom is expected to be -1420.00 GBP Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Government Debt in the United Kingdom to stand at -3200.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing is projected to trend around -2460.00 GBP Million in 2020, according to our econometric models.