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BoE Holds Rates Amid Iran Risks
The Bank of England voted 8–1 to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in April 2026, with one member preferring an increase to 4% and several policymakers indicating they could consider additional rate increases in the future. Policymakers highlighted that the conflict in the Middle East has created significant uncertainty for global energy prices. While monetary policy cannot directly influence them, the Committee aims to ensure any inflationary impact feeds through in a way consistent with the 2% target over the medium term, with outcomes dependent on the scale and duration of the shock and how it spreads through the economy. CPI inflation has risen to 3.3% and is expected to move higher later in the year as energy costs pass through, raising the risk of second round effects in wages and pricing. However, a loosening labour market and weaker growth may help contain inflation pressures, while tighter financial conditions since the conflict began are also expected to dampen demand.
Published on 2026-04-30

BoE Holds Rates Amid Iran Risks
The Bank of England voted 8–1 to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in April 2026, with one member preferring an increase to 4%. Policymakers highlighted that the conflict in the Middle East has created significant uncertainty for global energy prices, though monetary policy cannot directly influence them. Instead, the Committee aims to ensure any inflationary impact feeds through in a way consistent with the 2% target over the medium term, with outcomes dependent on the scale and duration of the shock and how it spreads through the economy. CPI inflation has risen to 3.3% and is expected to move higher later in the year as energy costs pass through, raising the risk of second round effects in wages and pricing. However, a loosening labour market and weaker growth may help contain inflation pressures, while tighter financial conditions since the conflict began are also expected to dampen demand.
Published on 2026-04-30

BoE Holds Rates Amid Iran Risks
The Bank of England voted 8–1 to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in April 2026, with one member preferring an increase to 4% and several policymakers indicating they could consider additional rate increases in the future. Policymakers highlighted that the conflict in the Middle East has created significant uncertainty for global energy prices. While monetary policy cannot directly influence them, the Committee aims to ensure any inflationary impact feeds through in a way consistent with the 2% target over the medium term, with outcomes dependent on the scale and duration of the shock and how it spreads through the economy. CPI inflation has risen to 3.3% and is expected to move higher later in the year as energy costs pass through, raising the risk of second round effects in wages and pricing. However, a loosening labour market and weaker growth may help contain inflation pressures, while tighter financial conditions since the conflict began are also expected to dampen demand.
Published on 2026-04-30

BoE Seen Holding Rates Amid Iran Risks
The Bank of England is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as policymakers grapple with heightened uncertainty stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict and its inflationary impact. Governor Andrew Bailey and the Monetary Policy Committee are likely to resist any immediate policy shift, instead focusing on scenario analysis to assess how a prolonged energy shock could affect growth, jobs, and price stability. Rising oil and gas costs have disrupted the prior disinflation trend, with evidence mounting that higher input prices are feeding through to consumers. While markets have flirted with pricing in rate hikes, most economists expect a cautious hold, reflecting limited clarity on the duration of the shock and still-fragile labour market conditions. Communication will be key after March’s market volatility, with officials expected to strike a more balanced tone, acknowledging upside inflation risks while avoiding signals that could trigger another sharp repricing.
Published on 2026-04-30

BoE Expected to Keep Rates Steady Amid Iran War Risks
The Bank of England is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as policymakers grapple with heightened uncertainty stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict and its inflationary impact. Governor Andrew Bailey and the Monetary Policy Committee are likely to resist any immediate policy shift, instead focusing on scenario analysis to assess how a prolonged energy shock could affect growth, jobs, and price stability. Rising oil and gas costs have disrupted the prior disinflation trend, with evidence mounting that higher input prices are feeding through to consumers. While markets have flirted with pricing in rate hikes, most economists expect a cautious hold, reflecting limited clarity on the duration of the shock and still-fragile labour market conditions. Communication will be key after March’s market volatility, with officials expected to strike a more balanced tone, acknowledging upside inflation risks while avoiding signals that could trigger another sharp repricing.
Published on 2026-04-30

BoE Expected to Keep Rates Steady Amid Iran War Risks
The Bank of England is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as policymakers grapple with heightened uncertainty stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict and its inflationary impact. Governor Andrew Bailey and the Monetary Policy Committee are likely to resist any immediate policy shift, instead focusing on scenario analysis to assess how a prolonged energy shock could affect growth, jobs, and price stability. Rising oil and gas costs have disrupted the prior disinflation trend, with evidence mounting that higher input prices are feeding through to consumers. While markets have flirted with pricing in rate hikes, most economists expect a cautious hold, reflecting limited clarity on the duration of the shock and still-fragile labour market conditions. Communication will be key after March’s market volatility, with officials expected to strike a more balanced tone, acknowledging upside inflation risks while avoiding signals that could trigger another sharp repricing.
Published on 2026-04-30

BoE Seen Holding Rates Amid Iran Risks
The Bank of England is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as policymakers grapple with heightened uncertainty stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict and its inflationary impact. Governor Andrew Bailey and the Monetary Policy Committee are likely to resist any immediate policy shift, instead focusing on scenario analysis to assess how a prolonged energy shock could affect growth, jobs, and price stability. Rising oil and gas costs have disrupted the prior disinflation trend, with evidence mounting that higher input prices are feeding through to consumers. While markets have flirted with pricing in rate hikes, most economists expect a cautious hold, reflecting limited clarity on the duration of the shock and still-fragile labour market conditions. Communication will be key after March’s market volatility, with officials expected to strike a more balanced tone, acknowledging upside inflation risks while avoiding signals that could trigger another sharp repricing.
Published on 2026-04-30

BoE Holds Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Risks Rise
The Bank of England unanimously voted to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% in March 2026, as the conflict in the Middle East has caused a sharp rise in global energy and commodity prices, pushing up household fuel and utility costs and raising business expenses. Prior to this shock, domestic prices and wages had been showing continued disinflation. The MPC is closely monitoring the risk of second-round effects on wages and prices, which could increase the longer energy costs remain high. Recent data showed headline inflation at 0.1% in February, with medium-term pressures largely unchanged. Higher energy prices are expected to push CPI to between 3% and 3.5% over the next few quarters, though a slowdown in economic activity from rising costs could limit second-round effects. The Committee will continue to assess developments in the Middle East and global markets, ready to adjust policy as needed to maintain price stability and support sustainable growth.
Published on 2026-03-19

BoE Seen Holding Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Risks Rise
The BoE is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as policymakers assess rising inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict. The sharp increase in oil and gas prices has complicated the outlook, pushing inflation expectations higher and prompting markets to abandon earlier bets on a near-term rate cut. Prior to the escalation in geopolitical tensions, a reduction to 3.50% had been seen as highly likely, but that conviction has faded as energy prices climbed above $100 per barrel and uncertainty over the duration of the conflict persists. The Monetary Policy Committee is therefore expected to adopt a cautious tone, potentially adjusting its forward guidance to emphasise data dependency rather than signalling imminent easing. Investors will closely scrutinise policymakers’ comments for clues on how persistent they expect inflationary pressures to be. While most economists still expect rate cuts later in the year, the timing and extent remain highly uncertain.
Published on 2026-03-19

Bank of England Keeps Rates Steady
The Bank of England kept its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in February, with a narrow 5 to 4 vote, as policymakers balanced easing inflation pressures against risks from a weakening economy. Four members supported a 25 basis point cut, highlighting growing divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee. Inflation remains above the 2% target but is expected to fall back to around that level from April due partly to energy price developments. Pay growth and services inflation have continued to ease, reflecting subdued economic growth and rising slack in the labour market. Policymakers noted that risks of persistent inflation have diminished, while weaker demand and a softening jobs market pose downside risks. Bank Rate has already been reduced by 150 basis points since August 2024, lowering policy restrictiveness. The committee signalled that further rate cuts are likely but will depend on incoming inflation data, with future decisions expected to be finely balanced.
Published on 2026-02-05

Bank of England to Keep Rates Steady
The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, as policymakers wait for clearer evidence that inflation is under control despite growing concern about the labor market. Markets see less than a 1% chance of a rate cut and most economists expect a 7 to 2 vote to hold, with only Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra likely to support a reduction. Inflation remains elevated at 3.4% but is forecast to fall to the 2% target in the second quarter, keeping hawkish members cautious. At the same time, unemployment has risen to 5.1% and redundancies have increased, raising concerns about economic weakness. Recent data has been mixed, with stronger GDP growth, solid retail sales and improving business activity offset by labor market deterioration. Governor Andrew Bailey is expected to back a hold while signalling further gradual easing ahead, with markets pricing about a 70% chance of the next rate cut in April.
Published on 2026-02-05

Bank of England Cuts Rate As Expected
The Bank of England cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, its lowest level since 2022, as easing inflation and growing signs of economic strain prompted policymakers to act. The move marked the first rate cut since August. Five policymakers voted for the cut while four favored holding rates, a less dovish-than-expected split that prompted traders to scale back expectations for further BOE rate cuts. The MPC stated that future policy easing will be guided by developments in the inflation outlook, adding that the degree of policy restrictiveness has diminished. UK inflation slowed to 3.2% in November, the lowest in 8 months and below the BoE’s forecast of 3.4%. At the same time, GDP contracted for a second month in October, while private-sector wage growth continued to cool.
Published on 2025-12-18

Bank of England Cuts Rate As Expected
The Bank of England cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, its lowest level since 2022, as easing inflation and growing signs of economic strain prompted policymakers to act. The move marked the first rate cut since August, following rate holds in September and November. Five policymakers voted for the cut while four wanted to keep the rate unchanged. UK annual inflation slowed to 3.2% in November, the lowest reading in eight months and below the BoE’s forecast of 3.4%. At the same time, GDP contracted for a second consecutive month in October, while private-sector wage growth continued to cool. Investors will closely watch the vote split and guidance from the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee for signals on the policy outlook in 2026. Markets increasingly believe the central bank is nearing the end of its easing cycle, with only one additional rate cut fully priced in for next year.
Published on 2025-12-18

Bank of England Cuts Rate As Expected
The Bank of England cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, its lowest level since 2022, as easing inflation and growing signs of economic strain prompted policymakers to act. The move marked the first rate cut since August. Five policymakers voted for the cut while four wanted to keep the rate unchanged. The MPC stated that future policy easing will be guided by developments in the inflation outlook, adding that the degree of policy restrictiveness has diminished. UK inflation slowed to 3.2% in November, the lowest in eight months and below the BoE’s forecast of 3.4%. At the same time, GDP contracted for a second month in October, while private-sector wage growth continued to cool. Investors will closely watch the vote split and guidance from the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee for signals on the policy outlook in 2026. Markets increasingly believe the central bank is nearing the end of its easing cycle, with only one additional rate cut fully priced in for next year.
Published on 2025-12-18

BoE to Resume Rate Cuts
The Bank of England is widely expected to cut the Bank Rate by 25bps to 3.75% at its December 2025 meeting, marking the first reduction since August after holding rates steady in September and November. Such a move would lower borrowing costs to their weakest level since 2022, amid easing inflation and mounting signs of economic strain. UK annual inflation slowed to 3.2% in November, the lowest reading in eight months and below the BoE’s forecast of 3.4%. At the same time, GDP contracted for a second consecutive month in October, while private-sector wage growth continued to cool. Investors will closely watch the vote split and guidance from the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee for signals on the policy outlook in 2026. Markets increasingly believe the central bank is nearing the end of its easing cycle, with only one additional rate cut fully priced in for next year.
Published on 2025-12-18

BoE Hold Rates at 4%
The Bank of England’s MPC voted 5–4 to keep the Bank Rate at 4% at its 5 November meeting, in line with expectations. Four members preferred a 25 bps cut to 3.75%, reflecting growing support for easing. Policymakers noted that CPI inflation has peaked and underlying disinflation is progressing, helped by a still-restrictive policy stance, softer pay growth, and easing services inflation. A subdued economy and rising labour-market slack are also reinforcing disinflation. The MPC said risks around achieving the 2% target are now more evenly balanced: inflation persistence has become less concerning, while downside risks from weak demand have grown. Still, members stressed the need for more evidence on both fronts. As previous rate cuts have reduced policy restrictiveness, future reductions will depend on incoming data. If disinflation continues as expected, the Bank Rate is likely to move lower gradually.
Published on 2025-11-06

BoE Expected to Hold Rates at 4%
The Bank of England is expected to keep its key rate unchanged at 4% during its November meeting, as policymakers balance easing inflation with signs of a cooling economy. Consumer price growth slowed to 3.8% in September, still nearly double the 2% target but continuing to trend lower, while wage and employment data suggest the labor market is softening. These developments have strengthened expectations for rate cuts in the coming months. Investors are also weighing the impact of upcoming fiscal tightening, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves expected to announce tax increases and spending restraint in her November 26 budget to address high borrowing costs. Her recent pre-budget speech emphasized fiscal discipline and the need to stabilize public finances. With uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget and policymakers seeking clearer evidence that price pressures are easing sustainably, the BoE is likely to adopt a cautious “wait-and-see” stance before considering monetary easing.
Published on 2025-11-06

BoE Keeps Rates Steady
The Bank of England voted 7–2 to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 4%, with two members favoring a 25 bps cut to 3.75%. The MPC also voted 7–2 to slow quantitative tightening, reducing gilt holdings by £70 billion over the next year, to £488 billion. Policymakers highlighted progress in disinflation after past shocks, supported by restrictive policy, though inflation remains above target. CPI stood at 3.8% in August and is expected to rise slightly in September before trending back toward 2%. Wage growth, while still elevated, has eased and is forecast to slow further, while services inflation has remained steady. The MPC flagged upside risks to medium-term inflation but noted subdued GDP growth, a loosening labor market, and slack in the economy. Looking ahead, the committee stressed a gradual, data-driven approach, with no pre-set path for rate cuts, keeping flexibility to respond to future developments.
Published on 2025-09-18

BoE Likely to Maintain Rates
The Bank of England is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 4% during its September 2025 meeting, following a 25 bps cut in August, as it navigates slow growth alongside still-elevated inflation. August CPI came in at 3.8%, matching July’s 18-month high, with inflation forecast to reach 4% in September and remain above the 2% target until spring 2027. While wage growth has slowed to 4.8% for basic pay, the labor market continues to exert upward pressure on prices. UK economic growth remains weak, with just 0.2% expansion in the three months to July. The BoE is likely to maintain its cautious pace on quantitative tightening, slowing the £100 billion annual gilt unwind amid market volatility; holdings have fallen from £875 billion in 2022 to £558 billion. Governor Andrew Bailey has signaled that the rate path is “open,” and polls suggest the Monetary Policy Committee may reduce the gilt unwind to around £67.5 billion.
Published on 2025-09-18

BoE Likely to Maintain Rates
The Bank of England is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 4% during its September 2025 meeting, following a 25 bps cut in August, as it navigates slow growth alongside still-elevated inflation. August CPI came in at 3.8%, matching July’s 18-month high, with inflation forecast to reach 4% in September and remain above the 2% target until spring 2027. While wage growth has slowed to 4.8% for basic pay, the labor market continues to exert upward pressure on prices. UK economic growth remains weak, with just 0.2% expansion in the three months to July. The BoE is likely to maintain its cautious pace on quantitative tightening, slowing the £100 billion annual gilt unwind amid market volatility; holdings have fallen from £875 billion in 2022 to £558 billion. Governor Andrew Bailey has signaled that the rate path is “open,” and polls suggest the Monetary Policy Committee may reduce the gilt unwind to around £67.5 billion.
Published on 2025-09-18