News

UK GDP Growth Revised Higher to 1.3%
The British economy expanded 1.3% on quarter in the last three months of 2020, higher than 1% in the preliminary estimate. Government expenditure (6.7% vs 6.4% in the first estimate), particularly healthcare and education; business investment (5.9% vs 1.3%) and inventories were revised upwards while household consumption experienced a bigger fall (-1.7% vs -0.2%). Net external demand also contributed negatively to the GDP as imports rose more than exports. Q3 figures were revised up to show a 16.9% growth. Despite two consecutive quarters of growth, the level of GDP was still 7.3% below its pre-pandemic level. The levels of business investment and household consumption remain 7.4% and 9.2% lower than their pre-pandemic levels respectively. The contraction for 2020 was also revised to 9.8%, from the first estimate of a 9.9% decline.
Published on 2021-03-31

UK Economy Expands Faster than Forecast in Q4
UK gross domestic product grew by 1.0 percent on quarter in the October to December period of 2020, easing from a 16.1 percent expansion in the previous quarter but beating market expectations of 0.5 percent, a preliminary estimate showed. Despite two consecutive quarters of growth, the level of GDP was 7.8 percent below its pre-pandemic level. Government consumption advanced 6.4 percent (vs 12.9 percent in Q3) on the back of higher spending on healthcare and education, and fixed investment rose 2.1 percent (vs 20.3 percent in Q3), driven by a large increase in transport equipment. Meanwhile, household consumption decreased by 0.2 percent (vs 19.3 percent in Q3), due to lower spending in restaurants and hotels following the reintroduction of restrictions. Net external demand also contributed negatively to the GDP as imports rose more than exports. Over the year 2020 as a whole, GDP contracted by 9.9 percent, the largest annual fall on record.
Published on 2021-02-12

UK Q3 GDP Growth Revised Higher to 16%
UK GDP expanded 16 percent in the three months to September 2020, revised from the first estimate of 15.5 percent growth and compared with a record 18.8 percent contraction in the previous three-month period. This was the strongest pace of expansion in the economy since the series began in 1955, supported by a recovery in private consumption, government consumption and, to a lesser extent, business investment in line with the easing of lockdown restrictions in the third quarter. Still, the level of UK GDP in the third quarter was 8.6 percent below its pre-pandemic level, revised from the previous estimate of being 9.7 percent lower. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the UK economy fell by a revised 8.6 percent.
Published on 2020-12-22

UK Economy Grows by Record 15.5% in Q3
UK GDP expanded 15.5 percent in the three months to September 2020, partially recovering from a record contraction of 19.8 percent seen in the previous period and compared with market expectations of a 15.8 percent growth, a preliminary estimate showed. This was the strongest pace of expansion in the economy since the series began in 1955, reflecting the continued easing of lockdown restrictions as well as some recovery of activity from the steep contraction in April. Household consumption increased 18.3 percent (vs -26.3 percent in Q2) driven by higher spending on restaurants and hotels and transport, and gross fixed capital formation rose 15.1 percent (vs -21.6 percent in Q2) boosted by dwellings investment and business investment. Still, household consumption and business investment remained well below pre-pandemic levels. Public spending advanced 7.8 percent (vs -14.6 percent in Q2), while net external demand contributed negatively to the GDP as imports rose more than exports.
Published on 2020-11-12

UK Economy Shrinks Slightly Less than Initial Estimates
The British economy shrank 19.8 percent on quarter in the three months to June of 2020, slightly less than a preliminary estimate of a 20.4 percent drop. Still, it remains the biggest contraction ever and the second consecutive quarterly decline in GDP, officially entering a recession, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the government measures taken to reduce transmission of the virus. Gross fixed capital formation fell less than initially anticipated (-21.6 percent vs -25.5 percent) while both household consumption (-23.6 percent vs -23.1 percent) and government spending (-14.6 percent vs -14 percent) sank more. Private consumption accounted for more than three-quarters of the fall in GDP, reflecting the implementation of public health restrictions, the mandated closures of non-essential shops and forms of social distancing. Net external demand contributed positively as imports (-22.7 percent) fell more than exports (-11 percent).
Published on 2020-09-30

UK Economy Enters Steep Recession in Q2
UK gross domestic product shrank by 20.4 percent in the second quarter of 2020, the most since comparable records began in 1955 and compared to market expectations of a 20.5 percent contraction, a preliminary estimate showed. That was the second consecutive quarterly decline in GDP, officially entering a recession, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the government measures taken to reduce transmission of the virus. Private consumption accounted for more than 70 percent of the decline in the GDP, down by 23.1 percent; there were also notable falls in gross fixed capital formation (-25.5 percent) and government consumption (-14.0 percent). Net external demand contributed positively as imports fell more than exports.
Published on 2020-08-12

UK Economy Contracts Most in Over 40 Years
Britain's economy shrank by 2.2 percent in the first quarter of 2020, compared with a preliminary estimate of a 2.0 percent fall. That was the largest drop in UK GDP since the third quarter of 1979 as a coronavirus lockdown from mid-March forced non-essential businesses to close and consumers to stay at home. Household consumption dropped by 2.9 percent (vs preliminary -1.7 percent), the most in over four decades, driven by declines in spending on transport, restaurants and hotels, and clothing and footwear, due to the effects of social distancing measures. Fixed investment shrank 1.1 percent (vs preliminary -1 percent), due to falls in government investment, dwellings investment and business investment, while government consumption decreased by 4.1 percent (vs preliminary -2.6 percent), reflecting declines in health and education expenditure. The negative contribution of net trade was revised downwards, with both exports and imports tumbling more than initially thought.
Published on 2020-06-30

UK Economy Contracts the Most since 2008
Britain's gross domestic product shrank by 2.0 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2020, after showing no growth in the previous period and compared to market expectations of a 2.5 percent slump, a preliminary estimate showed. That was the steepest contraction since the fourth quarter of 2008 as a coronavirus lockdown from mid-March forced businesses to close and consumers to stay at home. Household consumption dropped by 1.7 percent, also the largest fall since the fourth quarter of 2008, driven by declines in spending on transport, restaurants and hotels, and clothing and footwear, due to the effects of social distancing measures. Fixed investment shrank 1 percent, due to falls in investment in dwellings as well as government investment, while government consumption decreased 2.6 percent, reflecting declines in health and education expenditure. In addition, exports tumbled 10.8 percent and imports were down 5.3 percent as the pandemic hit global trade demand.
Published on 2020-05-13

UK Economy Stagnates in Q4
Britain's gross domestic product was flat in the fourth quarter of 2019, unrevised from the preliminary estimate and compared with a 0.5 percent expansion in the previous period. Household consumption was unchanged in the three months to December, marking the first period that it has not increased since the fourth quarter of 2015, while gross fixed capital formation dropped the most in nearly two years, led by a contraction in business investment. Meanwhile, government consumption rebounded firmly, driven by education and health, and net trade contributed positively to the GDP as exports rose more than imports. On the production side, services activity grew at a softer pace, while production output fell due to declines in manufacturing, and mining and quarrying. In addition, construction output dropped into contraction territory.
Published on 2020-03-31

UK Economy Stalls in Q4
Britain's gross domestic product was flat in the fourth quarter of 2019, following an upwardly revised 0.5 percent expansion in the previous three-month period and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed. Household spending rose at the weakest rate in four years, while government spending increased the most since the first quarter of 2012. Net trade also contributed positively to growth, while fixed capital formation contracted 1.6 percent driven by declines in investment in information and communication technology (ICT) equipment, dwellings, transport, and intellectual property products. On the production side, services and construction output rose, while production output declined.
Published on 2020-02-11

UK Q3 GDP Growth Revised Higher
Britain's quarterly economic growth was revised slightly higher to 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2019, from a preliminary estimate of 0.3 percent, as net trade made a larger positive contribution than previously estimated. The expansion was also supported by household consumption, while gross capital formation and government expenditure contributed negatively to GDP growth.
Published on 2019-12-20

UK Economy Rebounds in Q3
Britain's economy grew 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2019, recovering from a 0.2 percent contraction in the previous three-month period and missing market expectations of a 0.4 percent expansion, a preliminary estimate showed. Year-on-year, the economy grew 1 percent, the weakest pace of expansion since the first quarter of 2010.
Published on 2019-11-11

UK GDP Contraction Confirmed in Q2
UK gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent in the second quarter of 2019, unrevised from the previous estimate and compared to the previous period's figure of 0.6 percent. Gross capital formation contracted sharply, while private consumption, government spending and net trade contributed positively to GDP growth. On the production side, industrial output fell the most since the fourth quarter of 2012.
Published on 2019-09-30

UK Economy Suffers 1st Contraction in Nearly 7 Years
Britain's economy shrank 0.2 percent in the second quarter of 2019, compared to forecasts that had pointed to stagnation and following a 0.5 percent growth in the previous three-month period, a preliminary estimate showed. That was the first quarter of contraction since the last quarter of 2012.
Published on 2019-08-09

UK Q1 GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.5%
Britain's quarterly economic growth was confirmed at 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2019, above the previous three-month period's figure of 0.2 percent. Household expenditure, government consumption and investment contributed positively to GDP growth, while net trade contributed negatively.
Published on 2019-06-28

UK GDP Growth Accelerates to 0.5% in Q1
The UK economy grew by 0.5 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2019, accelerating from a 0.2 percent expansion in the previous period and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed. Private consumption, government consumption and gross capital formation contributed positively, while net trade contributed negatively to GDP growth.
Published on 2019-05-10

UK Q4 GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.2%
Britain's quarterly economic growth was confirmed at 0.2 percent in the three months to December 2018, below the previous three-month period's revised figure of 0.7 percent. Household consumption and government spending supported the expansion, while gross capital formation and net trade contributed negatively to GDP growth.
Published on 2019-03-29

UK GDP Growth Slows to 0.2% in Q4
The UK economy grew by 0.2 percent on quarter in the three months to December 2018, easing from a 0.6 percent expansion in the previous period and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed. Private consumption and government consumption were the main driver of growth, while gross capital formation and net trade contributed negatively. Compared with the same quarter in the previous year, the economy expanded by 1.3 percent. It has not been weaker since Q2 2012 and continues its relatively subdued performance over the last year. Considering 2018 full year, UK GDP increased by 1.4 percent, the weakest it has been since 2009.
Published on 2019-02-11

UK Q3 GDP Growth Confirmed at Near 2-Year High
Britain's quarterly economic growth was confirmed at 0.6 percent in the three months to September 2018, the strongest expansion since the last quarter of 2016 and following a 0.4 percent advance in the previous period. Household spending and exports were the main drivers of growth while business investment has fallen for three consecutive quarters, which has not been seen since the global financial crisis, in part due to Brexit-related economic and political uncertainty.
Published on 2018-12-21

UK Economy Grows at Fastest Pace in Nearly 2 Years
The British economy grew by 0.6 percent on quarter in the three months to September 2018, following a 0.4 percent expansion in the previous period and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed. It was the strongest growth rate since the last quarter of 2016 as household spending and exports rose firmly while business investment contracted at the fastest pace since early 2016 in part due to Brexit-related economic and political uncertainty. Compared with a year earlier, the economy grew 1.5 percent.
Published on 2018-11-09