The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for third-quarter 2026 real GDP growth, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, stood at 3.7% on October 6, unchanged from October 1 after rounding. Following recent releases from the US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Institute for Supply Management, increases in the nowcasts for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth, from 3.3% to 3.4% and 21.4% to 21.5%, respectively, were offset by a larger drag from net exports. The estimated contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth fell from -2.59 percentage points to -2.69 percentage points. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

GDPNow in the United States averaged 2.60 percent from 2014 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 37.00 percent in October of 2020 and a record low of -53.80 percent in June of 2020. United States Atlanta Fed GDPNow - values, historical data and charts - was last updated on October of 2026.

United States Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Atlanta Fed GDPNow is a real-time model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta that provides a “nowcast” of US real GDP growth for the current quarter before the official estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The model estimates 13 GDP subcomponents: personal consumption expenditures; private fixed investment; change in private inventories; exports; imports; federal government consumption and investment; and state and local government consumption and investment, with several categories further broken down into underlying components. GDPNow is updated as new economic data are released, typically six or seven times a month, and produces a data-driven estimate with no subjective adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed or the Federal Reserve.