Atlanta Fed GDPNow Holds Q3 Growth Estimate at 3.7%

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for third-quarter 2026 real GDP growth, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, stood at 3.7% on October 6, unchanged from October 1 after rounding.

Following recent releases from the US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Institute for Supply Management, increases in the nowcasts for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth, from 3.3% to 3.4% and 21.4% to 21.5%, respectively, were offset by a larger drag from net exports.

The estimated contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth fell from -2.59 percentage points to -2.69 percentage points.