Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecasts 3.2% Growth in Q4

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projected annualized real GDP growth of 3.2% for the fourth quarter of 2026 in its initial estimate released on October 28. Meanwhile, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, slightly above the Atlanta Fed’s final GDPNow estimate of 3.3% and above market expectations of 3.2%.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for third-quarter 2026 real GDP growth eased to 3.6% on October 8, from 3.7% on October 6. Following the latest US Census Bureau wholesale trade report, the estimated contribution of inventory investment to Q3 growth fell to 1.98 percentage points from 2.07 percentage points.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for third-quarter 2026 real GDP growth, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, stood at 3.7% on October 6, unchanged from October 1 after rounding. Following recent releases from the US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Institute for Supply Management, increases in the nowcasts for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth, from 3.3% to 3.4% and 21.4% to 21.5%, respectively, were offset by a larger drag from net exports. The estimated contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth fell from -2.59 percentage points to -2.69 percentage points.