The Federal Reserve's policy rate stands at 3.75% – 4.00%. Interest rate futures price an implied rate of 3.93% at the 28 October 2026 decision, 5 basis points above the current level. Markets assign a 0% probability to a cut, 82% to no change and 18% to a hike, with 3.75% – 4.00% the single most likely outcome at 82%.

United States Implied Policy Rate

Implied policy rates show what interest rate futures are pricing for each central bank’s upcoming decisions. For every bank the table lists its current target, the date of its next meeting, the policy rate implied for that meeting, the move that represents against today’s level, and the probability the market assigns to a cut, no change or a hike.