The Federal Reserve's policy rate stands at 3.75% – 4.00%. Interest rate futures price an implied rate of 3.93% at the 28 October 2026 decision, 5 basis points above the current level. Markets assign a 0% probability to a cut, 82% to no change and 18% to a hike, with 3.75% – 4.00% the single most likely outcome at 82%.
Trading Economics Implied Policy Rates are measures of how financial markets price future central bank policy decisions. Trading Economics derives market-implied forward curves by combining interest rate futures prices, tied to representative short-term benchmark rates, with scheduled decision dates from its economic calendar. The difference between the implied rate following a policy meeting and the prevailing policy rate reflects the expected basis-point move. Based on this expected change, the market-implied probability of rate adjustments are derived for each upcoming central bank meetings.