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Arabica coffee futures rose to nearly $3.10 per pound, their highest level since early September, amid concerns over near-term supply and uncertainty surrounding Brazil’s next harvest. Traders are increasingly worried that coffee shipments from top grower Brazil may not reach ICE warehouses before the December contract expires. Certified stocks remain critically low at 238,976 bags, close to last month’s 27-year low of 217,646 bags. Against this backdrop, market participants are closely monitoring the pace of Brazilian coffee sales and exporters’ willingness to release and ship supplies, as delays could prolong tight market conditions. Meanwhile, attention was also o the 2027 harvest, with an expected strengthening of El Niño towards the end of the year and into early 2027 raising concerns over rainfall patterns and crop development. Weather conditions during key growth stages, particularly flowering and fruit set, will be crucial to the outlook for Brazilian production.

Arabica coffee futures rose to around $2.92 per pound, extending a mild recovery after hitting a two-week low of $2.87 on October 9, partly on signs of tighter supplies from Colombia, the world's second-largest arabica producer. Colombia's Coffee Federation recently reported that coffee production fell 15% yoy to 12.65 million bags in the 2025/26 season, while exports declined 12% to 11.78 million bags. Meanwhile, concerns that El Niño could hurt Brazil's next coffee crop are providing additional support to prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the weather pattern could delay rainfall in Brazil during September and October, when coffee trees typically flower, potentially threatening the 2026/27 crop. Despite ample supplies from Brazil's recently harvested 2026 crop and solid export availability, traders are increasingly focused on the next season. Rainfall across key growing regions will be crucial for flowering and fruit set, ultimately shaping the 2027 crop's production potential.

Arabica coffee futures fell below $2.95 per pound, after reaching its highest level since early September, as expectations of ample supply from Brazil helped ease concerns over next year's crops. The 2026 harvest from the world's top coffee producer, Brazil, is seen at record numbers, with supply estimated at 67.6 million processed bags, up 19.6% from the previous year. Additionally, exports from Brazil in September jumped to its highest level of shippping volume in 20 months, reinforcing expectations of strong output. Meanwhile, Hedgepoint Global Markets estimates a global surplus of 8.9 million bags for the current crop year. Still, concerns over the El Niño phenomenon continue to underpin prices. With rains returning to most producing regions, growers are entering the fertilizer application period for the 2027/28 crop, although producers currently have reduced purchasing power over the input.