Germany | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Germany including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Germany economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.90 4 4.1 4.1 4.2 5.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 22000.00 23100 20600 24300 24500 11400 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 68.30 66.8 66.8 65.9 65.9 59.9 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 1.16 1.12 1.11 1.1 1.08 0.96 [+]
Stock Market 12208.95 12300 12200 12100 12000 10600 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.51 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.54 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.70 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.3 percent [+]
GDP 3466.76 3720 3720 4020 4020 4370 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 717.56 723 725 728 730 748 EUR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 815.75 822 825 827 830 891 EUR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 143.53 147 149 151 154 175 EUR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 45551.51 46200 46200 46700 46700 47200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 44072.39 45600 45600 46000 46000 46600 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 5.06 4.62 4.16 4.93 4.97 3.65 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 28.79 37.9 40.8 29.85 36.97 44.9 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 161.69 163 164 164 167 170 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 133.31 138 140 138 135 150 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Services 106.81 118 120 109 119 130 EUR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.90 4 4.1 4.1 4.2 5.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 44070.00 44360 44590 44650 44770 45900 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 2472.64 2780 2800 2810 2820 3010 Thousand [+]
Unemployment Change 7.00 -10 6 12 15 15 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.60 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.3 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.70 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.8 percent [+]
Labour Costs 111.34 113 114 115 116 126 Index Points [+]
Productivity 103.70 106 107 108 109 113 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 730.80 705 699 689 691 640 Thousand [+]
Wages 3745.00 3820 3860 3880 3900 4110 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 109.60 113 114 115 116 126 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 0.60 0.7 1 0.9 0.8 1.5 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 8.84 8.84 8.84 9.5 9.5 10.5 EUR/Hour [+]
Population 82.80 82.8 82.8 83.1 83.1 83.75 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.42 65.42 65.42 65.6 65.6 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.42 65.42 65.42 65.6 65.6 66 [+]
Employment Change 0.50 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 percent [+]
Employment Rate 74.60 75.2 75.4 75.5 75.5 75.4 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 29310.80 30100 30200 30300 30400 32500 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 10849.50 11000 11100 11200 11300 13500 Thousand [+]
Living Wage Family 1428.30 1550 1550 1600 1600 1850 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1145.70 1250 1250 1300 1300 1550 EUR/Month [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.30 61.2 61.4 61.6 61.8 64 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 109.00 111 113 115 117 134 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.80 104 106 108 110 128 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 109.00 113 115 117 119 136 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.58 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.8 percent [+]
Producer Prices 104.50 108 110 112 114 127 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.40 3.1 3.6 2.7 2.6 2.3 percent [+]
Export Prices 106.00 104 105 105 106 111 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 101.30 101 101 101 102 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.60 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 109.30 113 115 117 119 145 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 107.00 110 111 113 115 132 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.18 -0.06 0.02 0.05 1.75 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 1972.10 2070 2100 2140 2180 2400 EUR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 2813.30 2880 2910 2950 2990 3540 EUR Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 2853.70 3020 3140 3260 3340 4510 EUR Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 7993302.00 8450000 8620000 8790000 8930000 10200000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 171295.00 171000 170000 171000 172000 181000 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1364.36 1410 1420 1430 1440 1700 EUR Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1616.40 2410 2690 2810 3210 6680 EUR Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 149.50 144 144 142 142 132 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 22000.00 23100 20600 24300 24500 11400 EUR Million [+]
Exports 110603.00 106400 95300 107100 106500 91300 EUR Million [+]
Imports 88603.00 83300 74700 82800 82000 79900 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 17285.68 23800 19400 32100 22600 15400 EUR Million [+]
External Debt 4770189.00 5090000 5170000 5220000 5290000 5790000 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 8.30 6.7 6.7 6.2 6.2 5.2 percent [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 4425.97 9700 -6400 17400 12900 2130 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 5234.80 21500 19000 32200 20800 14800 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 3377.94 3400 3400 3400 3400 3400 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 44.00 44 44 44 44 44 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 2813.00 2286 2362 2287 2212 1573 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 35555.00 36200 36200 38800 38800 41100 Thousand [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 68.30 66.8 66.8 65.9 65.9 59.9 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.80 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -5.10 -9 13 -1 31 9 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending 138.86 141 142 143 144 157 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending to GDP 44.30 44.2 44.2 43.8 43.8 43.5 percent [+]
Government Revenues 325.30 327 355 321 342 381 EUR Billion [+]
Government Debt 1786779.20 1870000 1880000 1890000 1910000 2070000 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 330.40 336 342 322 311 372 EUR Billion [+]
Asylum Applications 15095.00 52930 15600 32150 29030 9400 [+]
Military Expenditure 40985.40 41303 41726 41858 41990 42548 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 115.10 112 109 111 111 105 [+]
Services PMI 53.50 54.1 52.4 53.6 53.8 53.3 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 58.30 55.2 53.8 54.2 54.8 53.9 [+]
Composite Pmi 55.10 53 52.9 53.4 54.4 53.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 5.00 2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.20 -0.9 0.8 -0.6 0.4 0.6 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.90 1.8 2 2.2 2.1 2.4 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 86.00 86.2 86.2 86.4 86.4 86.2 percent [+]
New Orders 114.60 113 120 116 115 126 Index Points [+]
Factory Orders 1.00 -2.1 2.5 -0.8 1 0.6 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -7.97 -5.74 -4.57 -4.39 -4.04 -4.02 EUR Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 1573.00 1810 1870 1910 1890 1750 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 187.45 196 199 202 205 235 EUR Billion [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 17.50 19.6 17.5 19.2 20.2 25.3 [+]
Car Production 463300.00 535000 369000 567000 522000 393000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 327693.00 302000 262000 364000 325000 287000 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.57 5.57 5.57 5.63 5.63 5.87 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 5.00 5 5 4 4 3 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 82 82 83 83 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 9 9 8 8 7 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 17.00 16 16 15 15 13 [+]
Steel Production 3605.14 3270 3000 3880 3720 3050 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -2.40 0.1 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 10.60 9.7 9.2 9.5 10.2 9 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.50 -1 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.80 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 395.46 399 401 403 405 423 EUR Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 475.41 479 481 483 485 508 EUR Billion [+]
Personal Savings 9.80 10.2 9.8 9.6 9.5 8 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 231929.00 248000 252000 256000 260000 298000 EUR Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 2779551.00 2790000 2800000 2820000 2830000 3120000 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.54 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.4 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.52 1.45 1.43 1.46 1.45 1.55 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 53.40 52.3 52.3 51.2 51.2 49.5 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 82.32 75.9 75.9 73.8 73.8 69.6 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Construction Output 6.40 3.8 2.5 2.3 2 1.1 percent [+]
Housing Index 139.53 143 147 151 155 184 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 26682.00 33900 34600 36080 38210 49700 [+]
Construction Pmi 55.10 55.2 55 54.8 53.7 51.6 [+]
Construction Orders 6.40 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.4 2.7 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 51.90 51.6 51.6 51.4 51.4 51 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.72 29.72 29.72 29.72 29.72 29.72 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 47.50 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.76 39.76 39.76 39.76 39.76 39.76 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.33 19.33 19.33 19.33 19.33 19.33 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 20.43 20.43 20.43 20.43 20.43 20.43 percent [+]