Germany | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Germany including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Germany economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.8 3.8 3.9 4 5.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.80 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 20000.00 20600 24300 24500 21800 11400 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 68.30 66.8 65.9 65.9 65.9 59.9 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.18 1.16 1.15 1.13 1.12 0.99 [+]
Stock Market 13044.79 12800 12700 12600 12400 11000 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.48 0.51 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.58 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.10 2 2.1 2 1.9 2.3 percent [+]
GDP 3466.76 3720 4020 4020 4020 4370 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 726.42 730 732 734 736 750 EUR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 823.14 832 837 843 847 891 EUR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 147.79 151 153 155 157 175 EUR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 45551.51 46200 46700 46700 46700 47200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 44072.39 45600 46000 46000 46000 46600 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 5.46 4.16 4.85 4.76 4.72 3.65 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 36.77 40.8 29.35 36.32 35.57 44.9 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 168.54 164 164 165 165 170 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 128.61 134 134 129 129 150 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Services 119.30 120 108 117 114 130 EUR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.8 3.8 3.9 4 5.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 44281.00 44590 44650 44770 44790 45900 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 2448.91 2700 2710 2720 2730 3010 Thousand [+]
Unemployment Change -23.00 6 12 15 11 15 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.70 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.3 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.40 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 7.9 percent [+]
Labour Costs 111.97 114 115 116 117 126 Index Points [+]
Productivity 106.40 107 108 109 110 113 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 683.67 699 689 691 687 640 Thousand [+]
Wages 3745.00 3860 3880 3900 3920 4110 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 160.90 114 115 116 117 126 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 1.20 1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.8 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 8.84 8.84 9.5 9.5 9.5 10.5 EUR/Hour [+]
Population 82.80 82.8 83.1 83.1 83.1 83.75 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.42 65.42 65.6 65.6 65.6 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.42 65.42 65.6 65.6 65.43 66 [+]
Employment Change 0.30 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.18 0.2 percent [+]
Employment Rate 74.80 75.4 75.5 75.5 75.6 75.4 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 29310.80 30200 30300 30400 30500 32500 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 10849.50 11100 11200 11300 11400 13500 Thousand [+]
Living Wage Family 1428.30 1550 1600 1600 1650 1850 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1145.70 1250 1300 1300 1350 1550 EUR/Month [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.80 61.4 61.6 61.8 62 64 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.80 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 109.60 113 115 117 119 134 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 102.40 106 108 110 112 128 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 109.50 115 117 119 121 136 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.48 1.8 1.9 1.9 2 2.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 105.20 110 112 114 116 127 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.10 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.3 percent [+]
Export Prices 105.60 105 105 106 107 111 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 99.80 101 101 102 102 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.20 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 109.80 115 117 119 121 145 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 107.90 111 113 115 117 132 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.06 0.02 0.05 0.16 1.75 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 2002.30 2100 2140 2180 2190 2400 EUR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 2850.80 2910 2950 2990 3000 3540 EUR Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 2889.90 3140 3260 3340 3420 4510 EUR Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 169937.00 170000 171000 172000 173000 181000 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 7854293.00 8620000 8790000 8930000 9150000 10200000 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1377.62 1420 1430 1440 1354 1700 EUR Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1621.10 2390 2510 2710 2980 5680 EUR Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 149.50 144 142 142 142 132 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 20000.00 20600 24300 24500 21800 11400 EUR Million [+]
Exports 103100.00 95300 107100 106500 106700 91300 EUR Million [+]
Imports 83000.00 74700 82800 82000 84900 79900 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 17800.00 19400 32100 22600 21700 15400 EUR Million [+]
External Debt 4676221.00 5170000 5220000 5290000 5360000 5790000 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 8.30 6.7 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.2 percent [+]
Capital Flows 11258.45 19000 32200 20800 20700 14800 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2938.46 -6400 17400 12900 8500 2130 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 3374.14 3400 3400 3400 3400 3400 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 43.00 44 44 44 44 44 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 35555.00 36200 38800 38800 38800 41100 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 2813.00 2382 2303 2224 2145 1560 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 68.30 66.8 65.9 65.9 65.9 59.9 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.80 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 9.83 13 -1 31 -10 9 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending 140.11 142 143 144 145 157 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending to GDP 44.30 44.2 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.5 percent [+]
Government Revenues 337.54 355 321 342 332 381 EUR Billion [+]
Government Debt 1786779.20 1880000 1890000 1910000 1930000 2070000 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 327.70 342 322 311 342 372 EUR Billion [+]
Asylum Applications 15000.00 5600 12150 19030 17420 1900 [+]
Military Expenditure 40985.40 41832 42017 42202 42387 43697 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 115.20 116 116 116 116 105 [+]
Services PMI 55.20 52.4 53.6 53.8 54.2 53.3 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 60.50 58.8 58.2 58 57.9 54.9 [+]
Composite Pmi 56.90 54.9 55.4 55.6 55.7 53.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 4.70 3.2 3.3 3.2 3 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.60 0.8 -0.6 0.4 -0.7 0.6 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 5.30 3 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.4 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 86.70 86.2 86.4 86.4 84.32 86.2 percent [+]
New Orders 119.50 120 116 115 114 126 Index Points [+]
Factory Orders 3.60 2.5 -0.8 1 -1.7 0.6 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -5.48 -2.89 -2.25 -1.48 -1.13 -0.06 EUR Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 1633.00 1870 1910 1890 1800 1750 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 189.11 199 202 205 207 235 EUR Billion [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 17.60 17.5 19.2 20.2 18.8 25.3 [+]
Car Production 522780.00 369000 567000 522000 545000 393000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 288035.00 262000 364000 325000 308000 287000 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.65 5.57 5.63 5.63 5.63 5.87 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 5.00 5 4 4 4 3 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 82 83 83 83 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 9 8 8 8 7 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 17.00 16 15 15 15 13 [+]
Mining Production 1.50 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 percent [+]
Steel Production 3628.68 3000 3880 3720 3280 3050 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 10.80 11 10.8 10.6 10.5 9 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.40 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -0.7 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.80 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.4 1.8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 398.56 401 403 405 407 423 EUR Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 478.41 481 483 485 487 508 EUR Billion [+]
Personal Savings 9.70 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.4 8 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 234378.00 252000 256000 260000 264000 298000 EUR Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 2808659.00 2800000 2820000 2830000 2840000 3120000 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.39 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.4 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.62 1.56 1.61 1.58 1.6 1.55 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 53.10 52.3 51.2 51.2 51.2 49.5 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 82.32 75.9 73.8 73.8 73.8 69.6 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Construction Output 4.00 2.5 2.3 2 1.9 1.1 percent [+]
Housing Index 140.83 147 151 155 157 184 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 26943.00 34600 36080 38210 34050 49700 [+]
Construction Pmi 53.40 55 54.8 53.7 53.6 51.6 [+]
Construction Orders 1.30 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.2 2.7 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 51.90 51.6 51.4 51.4 51.4 51 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.72 29.72 30.81 29.72 29.72 29.72 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 47.50 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 18.79 18.79 18.79 18.79 18.44 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.76 39.76 39.76 39.76 39.76 39.76 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.33 19.33 19.33 19.33 19.33 19.33 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 20.43 20.43 20.46 20.43 20.43 20.43 percent [+]