Germany - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Germany including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Germany economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.8 3.9 4 4 4 percent
Inflation Rate 1.70 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade 23700.00 24300 24500 21800 17400 11400 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 68.30 65.9 65.9 65.9 65.9 59.9 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 1.22
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.07
Stock Market 13169.17
points
12876 12533 12200 11876 9572
Government Bond 10Y 0.56
percent
0.51 0.52 0.52 0.31 0.58
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80
percent
0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80
percent
2.6 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3
GDP 3466.76
USD Billion
4020 4020 4020 4020 4370
GDP Constant Prices 733.83
EUR Billion
732 734 736 738 750
Gross National Product 836.45
EUR Billion
837 843 847 854 891
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 149.23
EUR Billion
153 155 157 160 175
GDP per capita 45551.51
USD
46700 46700 46700 46700 47200
GDP per capita PPP 44072.39
USD
46000 46000 46000 46000 46600
GDP From Agriculture 5.67
EUR Billion
5.07 4.88 4.78 3.98 3.65
GDP From Construction 39.16
EUR Billion
29.43 36.27 38.79 42.6 44.9
GDP From Manufacturing 171.90
EUR Billion
168 167 168 166 170
GDP From Public Administration 133.60
EUR Billion
133 130 133 143 150
GDP From Services 121.46
EUR Billion
109 117 120 123 130
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.60
percent
3.8 3.9 4 4 4
Employed Persons 44380.00
Thousand
44650 44770 44790 44800 45900
Unemployed Persons 2384.96
Thousand
2710 2720 2730 2800 3010
Unemployment Change -29.00
Thousand
12 15 11 7 15
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.60
percent
1.7 1.8 1.8 2 2.3
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.60
percent
6.7 6.8 6.8 7.2 7.9
Labour Costs 112.39
Index Points
115 116 117 121 126
Productivity 104.60
Index Points
108 109 110 109 113
Job Vacancies 706.86
Thousand
689 691 687 670 640
Wages 3775.00
EUR/Month
3880 3900 3920 3940 4110
Wages in Manufacturing 110.60
Index Points
115 116 117 118 126
Wage Growth 0.70
percent
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.8
Minimum Wages 8.84
EUR/Hour
9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 10.5
Population 82.80
Million
83.1 83.1 83.1 83.1 83.75
Retirement Age Women 65.42
65.6 65.6 65.6 65.6 66
Retirement Age Men 65.42
65.6 65.6 65 65.6 66
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.90
percent
61.6 61.8 62 62 64
Living Wage Family 1990.00
EUR/Month
1600 1600 1650 1650 1850
Living Wage Individual 1240.00
EUR/Month
1300 1300 1350 1350 1550
Part Time Employment 10824.70
Thousand
11200 11300 11400 11800 13500
Wages Low Skilled 2050.00
EUR/Month
2090 2090 2140 2140 2280
Wages High Skilled 3550.00
EUR/Month
3600 3600 3650 3650 3750
Employment Change 0.30
percent
0.5 0.5 0.18 0.4 0.2
Employment Rate 74.80
percent
75.5 75.5 75.6 75.9 75.4
Full Time Employment 29343.50
Thousand
30300 30400 30500 31200 32500
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.70
percent
1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60
percent
0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 110.60
Index Points
115 117 119 123 134
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.40
Index Points
108 110 112 116 128
Core Consumer Prices 110.30
Index Points
117 119 121 123 136
Core Inflation Rate 1.48
percent
1.9 1.9 2 2.3 2.5
Producer Prices 105.60
Index Points
112 114 116 116 127
Producer Prices Change 2.50
percent
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.3
Export Prices 106.10
Index Points
105 106 107 107 111
Import Prices 102.10
Index Points
101 102 102 103 108
Food Inflation 2.90
percent
2.5 2.4 2.5 2 2.5
CPI Housing Utilities 110.40
Index Points
117 119 121 127 145
CPI Transportation 108.60
Index Points
113 115 117 120 132
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.33
percent
0.02 0.05 0.16 0.5 1.75
Money Supply M1 2056.10
EUR Billion
2140 2180 2190 2200 2400
Money Supply M2 2867.30
EUR Billion
2950 2990 3000 3130 3540
Money Supply M3 2905.70
EUR Billion
3260 3340 3420 3500 4510
Foreign Exchange Reserves 166842.00
EUR Million
171000 172000 173000 175000 181000
Banks Balance Sheet 7871.70
EUR Billion
8790 8930 9150 9320 10200
Loans to Private Sector 1377.62
EUR Billion
1430 1440 1354 1480 1700
Private Debt to GDP 149.50
percent
142 142 142 142 132
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1665.00
EUR Billion
2510 2710 2980 3280 5680
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 23700.00
EUR Million
24300 24500 21800 17400 11400
Exports 116500.00
EUR Million
107100 106500 106700 94300 91300
Imports 92800.00
EUR Million
82800 82000 84900 76900 79900
Current Account 25400.00
EUR Million
32100 22600 21700 17400 15400
External Debt 4628099.00
EUR Million
5220000 5290000 5360000 5450000 5790000
Current Account to GDP 8.30
percent
6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.2
Capital Flows 27930.14
EUR Million
32200 20800 20700 18800 14800
Foreign Direct Investment 1607.54
EUR Million
17400 12900 8500 2500 2130
Gold Reserves 3373.64
Tonnes
3400 3400 3400 3400 3400
Terrorism Index 4.92
4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
Tourist Arrivals 35555.00
Thousand
38800 38800 38800 38800 41100
Weapons Sales 2813.00
USD Million
2177 2245 2314 2382 1560
Crude Oil Production 43.00
BBL/D/1K
44 44 44 44 44
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 68.30
percent
65.9 65.9 65.9 65.9 59.9
Government Budget 1.20
percent of GDP
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1
Government Budget Value 13.37
EUR Billion
-1 31 -10 13 9
Government Spending 139.50
EUR Billion
143 144 145 146 157
Government Spending to GDP 44.30
percent
43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.5
Government Revenues 346.12
EUR Billion
321 342 332 365 381
Government Debt 1771214.80
EUR Million
1890000 1910000 1930000 1950000 2070000
Fiscal Expenditure 332.75
EUR Billion
322 311 342 352 372
Military Expenditure 40985.40
USD Million
40749 41110 41471 41832 43697
Asylum Applications 16460.00
12150 19030 17420 4300 1900
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 117.20
Index Points
116 116 116 112 105
Services PMI 55.80
Index Points
53.6 53.8 54.2 52.6 53.3
Manufacturing PMI 63.30
58.2 58 57.9 55.9 54.9
Composite Pmi 58.90
Index Points
55.4 55.6 55.7 53.7 53.1
Industrial Production 5.60
percent
3.3 3.2 3 2.5 2.2
Industrial Production Mom 3.40
percent
-0.6 0.4 -0.7 0.9 0.6
Manufacturing Production 6.30
percent
3.2 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.4
Capacity Utilization 87.10
percent
86.4 86.4 85.02 86.8 86.2
New Orders 121.90
Index Points
116 115 114 122 126
Factory Orders -0.40
percent
-0.8 1 -1.7 0.6 0.6
Changes in Inventories -3.23
EUR Billion
-1.37 -0.96 -0.67 -5.66 0
Bankruptcies 1637.00
Companies
1910 1890 1800 1830 1750
Corporate Profits 193.15
EUR Billion
202 205 207 211 235
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 17.40
19.2 20.2 18.8 24.7 25.3
Car Production 361700.00
Units
567000 522000 545000 375000 393000
Car Registrations 253950.00
Cars
364000 325000 308000 269000 287000
Internet Speed 15298.72
KBps
15650 15592 15655 15569 14103
IP Addresses 38794861.00
IP
40515022 40736836 40899654 41007821 40527892
Mining Production 5.20
percent
1.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.9
Steel Production 3485.00
Thousand Tonnes
3880 3720 3280 3010 3050
Competitiveness Index 5.65
Points
5.63 5.63 5.63 5.63 5.87
Competitiveness Rank 5.00
4 4 4 4 3
Corruption Index 81.00
Points
83 83 83 83 85
Corruption Rank 10.00
8 8 8 8 7
Ease of Doing Business 20.00
15 15 15 15 13
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 10.80
Index Points
10.8 10.6 10.5 10.1 9
Retail Sales MoM 2.30
percent
-0.6 -0.2 -0.7 0.9 0.2
Retail Sales YoY 4.40
percent
2.4 2.2 2.4 2.6 1.8
Consumer Spending 400.22
EUR Billion
403 405 407 408 423
Disposable Personal Income 482.95
EUR Billion
483 485 487 488 508
Personal Savings 9.90
percent
9.6 9.5 9.4 9.2 8
Consumer Credit 236732.00
EUR Million
256000 260000 264000 278000 298000
Private Sector Credit 2851725.00
EUR Million
2820000 2830000 2840000 2860000 3120000
Bank Lending Rate 2.50
percent
2.7 2.8 2.8 3 3.4
Gasoline Prices 1.64
USD/Liter
1.63 1.58 1.6 1.55 1.55
Households Debt To Gdp 53.10
percent of GDP
51.2 51.2 51.2 51.2 49.5
Households Debt To Income 82.68
percent
73.8 73.8 73.8 73.8 69.6
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Construction Output 5.60
percent
2.3 2 1.9 4.2 1.1
Housing Index 142.22
Index Points
151 155 157 163 184
Building Permits 25982.00
36080 38210 34050 41700 49700
Construction Pmi 53.70
54.8 53.7 53.6 52.9 51.6
Construction Orders 1.50
percent
3.8 3.4 3.2 3.2 2.7
Home Ownership Rate 51.70
percent
51.4 51.4 51.4 51.4 51
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.72
percent
31 29.72 29.72 29.72 29.72
Personal Income Tax Rate 47.50
percent
47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 18
Social Security Rate 39.76
percent
39.76 39.76 39.76 39.76 39.76
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.33
percent
19.33 19.33 19.33 19.33 19.33
Social Security Rate For Employees 20.43
percent
20.27 20.43 20.43 20.43 20.43
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 6.65
celsius
0.73 11.93 16.05 4.06 8.37
Precipitation 33.58
mm
46.23 61.75 72.5 55.43 60.29