Germany - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Germany including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Germany economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4 percent
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.6 1.8 2 2.3 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade 25187.00 24500 21800 17400 24000 11400 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 64.10 62.4 62.4 62.4 60.5 60.1 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 1.18
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.08
Stock Market 13077.72
points
11500 11143 10796 10460 9218
Government Bond 10Y 0.52
percent
0.62 0.77 0.97 1.21 2.95
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30
percent
0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30
percent
2.6 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3
GDP 3466.76
USD Billion
4020 4020 4020 4140 4370
GDP Constant Prices 739.90
EUR Billion
737 742 755 741 790
Gross National Product 840.62
EUR Billion
837 847 860 840 900
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 149.03
EUR Billion
150 151 152 150 160
GDP per capita 45551.51
USD
46700 46700 46700 46900 47200
GDP per capita PPP 44072.39
USD
46000 46000 46000 46300 46600
GDP From Agriculture 4.79
EUR Billion
5.58 5.65 4.9 5.07 5.13
GDP From Construction 40.61
EUR Billion
36.77 39.34 41.54 30.1 43.47
GDP From Manufacturing 168.23
EUR Billion
171 174 172 170 180
GDP From Public Administration 140.80
EUR Billion
131 135 144 136 151
GDP From Services 120.76
EUR Billion
122 123 124 114 129
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40
percent
3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4
Employed Persons 44609.00
Thousand
44770 44790 44800 44850 45900
Unemployed Persons 2383.75
Thousand
2420 2430 2490 2520 2710
Unemployment Change -7.00
Thousand
15 11 7 11 15
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.50
percent
1.8 1.8 2 2 2.3
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.10
percent
5.9 5.7 5.4 5.5 6.4
Labour Costs 113.00
Index Points
114 115 116 116 120
Productivity 104.60
Index Points
105 105 106 107 111
Job Vacancies 692.47
Thousand
691 687 670 691 640
Wages 3809.00
EUR/Month
3900 3920 3940 3980 4110
Wages in Manufacturing 110.90
Index Points
111 112 112 113 115
Wage Growth 0.50
percent
1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.8
Minimum Wages 8.84
EUR/Hour
8.84 8.84 8.84 9.5 9.5
Population 82.80
Million
83.1 83.1 83.1 83.44 83.75
Retirement Age Women 65.58
65.58 65.58 65.58 65.67 65.75
Retirement Age Men 65.58
65.58 65.58 65.58 65.67 65.75
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.70
percent
61.8 62 62 62.4 64
Living Wage Family 1990.00
EUR/Month
2000 2000 2000 2150 2200
Living Wage Individual 1240.00
EUR/Month
1300 1300 1300 1360 1450
Part Time Employment 10992.70
Thousand
11300 11400 11800 12000 13500
Wages Low Skilled 2050.00
EUR/Month
2140 2140 2140 2200 2280
Wages High Skilled 3550.00
EUR/Month
3650 3650 3650 3700 3750
Employment Change 0.30
percent
0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3
Employment Rate 76.00
percent
75.5 75.6 75.9 76 75.4
Full Time Employment 29742.30
Thousand
30400 30500 31200 31400 32500
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60
percent
1.6 1.8 2 2.3 2.4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent
0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 110.70
Index Points
111 112 113 113 118
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.20
Index Points
103 104 105 106 111
Core Consumer Prices 110.10
Index Points
111 112 113 113 119
Core Inflation Rate 1.38
percent
1.9 2 2.3 2.1 2.5
Producer Prices 106.80
Index Points
106 107 108 109 113
Producer Prices Change 2.00
percent
1.6 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3
Export Prices 106.70
Index Points
106 107 107 108 111
Import Prices 102.30
Index Points
102 103 103 104 107
Food Inflation 3.30
percent
2.4 2.5 2 2.1 2.5
CPI Housing Utilities 111.10
Index Points
111 112 113 113 118
CPI Transportation 109.50
Index Points
109 110 111 111 116
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.33
percent
-0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.08 0.42
Money Supply M1 2061.30
EUR Billion
2180 2190 2200 2220 2400
Money Supply M2 2913.10
EUR Billion
2990 3000 3130 3200 3540
Money Supply M3 2948.80
EUR Billion
3340 3420 3500 3620 4510
Foreign Exchange Reserves 166970.00
EUR Million
172000 173000 175000 176000 181000
Banks Balance Sheet 7836.32
EUR Billion
8640 8950 9150 9400 10200
Loans to Private Sector 1403.08
EUR Billion
1440 1460 1480 1510 1700
Private Debt to GDP 147.70
percent
142 142 142 138 132
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1738.40
EUR Billion
2710 2980 3280 3420 5680
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 25187.00
EUR Million
24500 21800 17400 24000 11400
Exports 116060.00
EUR Million
106500 106700 94300 107700 91300
Imports 90873.00
EUR Million
82000 84900 76900 83700 79900
Current Account 29100.00
EUR Million
22600 21700 17400 30600 15400
External Debt 4583404.00
EUR Million
4750000 4860000 4910000 4980000 5510000
Current Account to GDP 8.00
percent
6.2 6.2 6.2 5.7 5.2
Capital Flows 15944.69
EUR Million
20800 20700 18800 30600 14800
Foreign Direct Investment 9115.00
EUR Million
12900 8500 2500 15100 2130
Gold Reserves 3373.60
Tonnes
3400 3400 3400 3400 3400
Terms Of Trade 104.30
Index Points
104 104 104 104 104
Terrorism Index 4.92
4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
Tourist Arrivals 35555.00
Thousand
38800 38800 38800 40000 42100
Weapons Sales 1653.00
USD Million
2014 1934 1854 1816 1780
Crude Oil Production 44.00
BBL/D/1K
44 44 44 44 44
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 64.10
percent
62.4 62.4 62.4 60.5 60.1
Government Budget 1.30
percent of GDP
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 1
Government Budget Value 70.64
EUR Billion
31 -10 13 -2 9
Government Spending 141.23
EUR Billion
142 142 144 143 151
Government Spending to GDP 43.90
percent
43.8 43.8 43.8 43.6 43.2
Government Revenues 419.06
EUR Billion
342 332 365 325 381
Government Debt 1771735.10
EUR Million
1890000 1910000 1920000 1940000 2070000
Fiscal Expenditure 348.42
EUR Billion
311 342 352 327 372
Military Expenditure 43023.00
USD Million
40858 41480 42102 42425 46314
Asylum Applications 10755.00
19030 17420 4300 10900 1900
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 102.10
Index Points
102 104 103 103 100
Services PMI 53.00
Index Points
53 52.6 54.9 54.6 53.3
Manufacturing PMI 58.10
56.3 54.9 56.3 55.9 54.9
Composite Pmi 54.60
Index Points
54.2 53.6 55.9 55.5 53.1
Industrial Production 3.20
percent
3.2 3 2.5 2.9 2.2
Industrial Production Mom 1.00
percent
0.4 -0.7 0.9 -0.3 0.6
Manufacturing Production 4.10
percent
3.1 2.8 2.6 3 2.4
Capacity Utilization 87.70
percent
86.4 86.8 86.8 86.7 86.2
New Orders 108.80
Index Points
111 115 116 117 121
Factory Orders -0.90
percent
1 -1.7 0.6 -0.6 0.6
Changes in Inventories -5.20
EUR Billion
-5.14 -2.37 -5.66 -2.42 -4.79
Bankruptcies 1624.00
Companies
1890 1800 1830 1890 1750
Corporate Profits 191.47
EUR Billion
205 207 211 214 235
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -8.20
7.9 17.5 19.1 15.6 25
Car Production 487600.00
Units
522000 545000 375000 572000 393000
Car Registrations 314055.00
325000 308000 269000 368000 287000
Internet Speed 15298.72
KBps
16309 16496 16819 17001 18203
IP Addresses 38794861.00
IP
42257710 42402709 43368195 43415303 48098428
Mining Production -10.00
percent
1.5 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9
Steel Production 3900.00
Thousand Tonnes
3720 3280 3010 3900 3050
Competitiveness Index 5.65
Points
5.65 5.65 5.65 5.76 5.87
Competitiveness Rank 5.00
5 5 5 4 3
Corruption Index 81.00
Points
82 82 82 83 84
Corruption Rank 12.00
11 11 11 10 9
Ease of Doing Business 20.00
19 19 19 18 17
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 10.80
Index Points
10.6 10.5 10.1 9.8 9
Retail Sales MoM -0.60
percent
-0.1 0.1 0.9 -0.4 0.2
Retail Sales YoY 1.30
percent
1.7 2.1 2.6 2.5 1.8
Consumer Spending 399.74
EUR Billion
406 404 409 406 428
Disposable Personal Income 484.70
EUR Billion
490 493 495 498 515
Personal Savings 10.20
percent
9.5 9.4 9.7 9.4 9.1
Consumer Credit 239327.00
EUR Million
252000 257000 265000 271000 295000
Private Sector Credit 2878928.00
EUR Million
2890000 2910000 2920000 2930000 3120000
Bank Lending Rate 2.48
percent
2.48 2.48 2.48 2.73 3.23
Gasoline Prices 1.72
USD/Liter
1.6 1.51 1.42 1.34 0.93
Households Debt To Gdp 53.10
percent of GDP
51.2 51.2 51.2 50.4 49.5
Households Debt To Income 82.68
percent
73.8 73.8 73.8 71.6 69.6
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Construction Output -0.90
percent
2.5 1.9 4.2 3.6 1.1
Housing Index 146.27
Index Points
149 155 159 162 175
Building Permits 25152.00
38210 34050 41700 36500 49700
Construction Pmi 50.90
54.6 55.9 54.4 54 52
Construction Orders 13.00
percent
3.4 3.2 3.2 3 2.7
Home Ownership Rate 51.70
percent
51.4 51.4 51.4 51.2 51
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.79
percent
29.79 29.79 29.79 29.79 29.79
Personal Income Tax Rate 47.50
percent
47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 40.21
percent
40.21 40.21 40.21 40.21 40.21
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.43
percent
19.43 19.43 19.43 19.43 19.43
Social Security Rate For Employees 20.78
percent
20.78 20.78 20.78 20.78 20.78
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 6.65
celsius
11.93 16.05 4.06 0.73 8.37
Precipitation 33.58
mm
61.75 72.5 55.43 46.33 60.29