Germany | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Germany including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Germany economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.90 4 4 4.1 4.2 5.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.00 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 25385.00 24300 23100 20600 24300 11400 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 68.30 68.7 67.8 66.8 66.6 59.8 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.12 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 0.86 [+]
Stock Market 12614.13 12200 12100 11700 11900 9880 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.37 percent [+]
30 Year Bond Yield 1.13 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.33 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.70 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.3 percent [+]
GDP 3363.45 3720 3720 3720 4020 4370 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 717.56 716 718 720 722 741 EUR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 815.75 804 806 808 832 821 EUR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 143.53 144 146 149 144 157 EUR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 45260.10 45900 45721 46200 45724 47200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 43787.82 45200 45400 45600 44494 46600 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 5.06 4.56 4.62 4.16 4.93 3.65 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 28.79 34.6 37.9 40.8 29.85 44.9 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 161.69 162 163 164 164 170 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 133.31 137 138 140 138 150 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Services 106.81 116 118 120 109 130 EUR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.90 4 4 4.1 4.2 5.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 44000.00 44221 44360 44590 44650 45900 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 2568.61 2770 2780 2800 2810 3010 Thousand [+]
Unemployment Change -15.00 5 10 5 12 15 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.60 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.7 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.70 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.8 percent [+]
Labour Costs 111.34 115 116 118 112 126 Index Points [+]
Productivity 103.60 105 106 107 104 113 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 705.95 644 638 623 698 599 Thousand [+]
Wages 3745.00 3790 3820 3860 3853 4110 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 108.50 112 116 114 115 126 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 1.10 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 3 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 8.84 8.84 8.84 8.84 9.5 10.5 EUR/Hour [+]
Population 82.18 82.54 82.66 82.88 82.96 83.31 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.42 65.42 65.42 65.42 65.6 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.42 65.42 65.42 65.42 65.6 66 [+]
Employment Change 0.40 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 percent [+]
Employment Rate 75.30 75.1 75.2 75.4 75.5 75.4 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 29974.90 29700 29800 29900 30168 30200 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 10794.80 10900 11000 11100 11043 11500 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.30 61.1 61.2 61.4 61.6 64 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 1428.30 1401 1398 1399 1399 1399 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1145.70 1130 1128 1129 1129 1129 EUR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.00 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 109.00 111 113 115 117 134 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.80 104 106 108 110 128 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 108.60 111 113 115 117 136 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.12 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.8 percent [+]
Producer Prices 104.70 108 110 112 114 127 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.40 4.7 4.1 3.6 2.7 2.3 percent [+]
Export Prices 106.20 104 104 105 107 111 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 102.30 100 101 101 102 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.70 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 109.50 110 110 110 110 113 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 107.90 109 110 111 113 132 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.25 -0.18 -0.06 0.02 1.75 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 1945.10 2020 2070 2100 2083 2400 EUR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 2816.90 2840 2880 2910 2944 3540 EUR Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 2857.70 2980 3020 3140 2981 4510 EUR Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 180726.00 172000 171000 170000 182035 181000 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 7970418.00 8230000 8450000 8620000 7989281 10200000 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1347.49 1400 1410 1420 1340 1700 EUR Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1582.80 2200 2410 2690 1731 6680 EUR Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 149.50 148 146 144 150 132 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 25385.00 24300 23100 20600 24300 11400 EUR Million [+]
Exports 118248.00 106000 106400 95300 107100 91300 EUR Million [+]
Imports 92863.00 81700 83300 74700 82800 79900 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 30200.00 22200 23358 19400 22405 15400 EUR Million [+]
External Debt 4640049.00 5060000 5150000 5290000 4632665 5790000 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 8.80 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.2 5.2 percent [+]
Capital Flows 50041.26 21100 21500 19000 21863 14800 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12291.62 5187 4299 3460 4068 2130 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 3377.94 3400 3400 3400 3373 3400 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 46.00 48 48 48 48 48 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 2813.00 2210 2286 2362 2287 1573 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 34970.00 36200 36200 36200 38800 41100 Thousand [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 68.30 68.7 67.8 66.8 66.6 59.8 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.80 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -5.10 29 -9 13 -1 9 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending 138.86 140 141 141 142 146 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending to GDP 44.30 44.5 44.4 44.2 44.38 43.5 percent [+]
Government Revenues 325.30 341 327 355 321 381 EUR Billion [+]
Government Debt 1786779.20 1850000 1870000 1880000 1784466 1910000 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 330.40 312 336 342 322 372 EUR Billion [+]
Asylum Applications 18075.00 35440 52930 15600 32150 9400 [+]
Military Expenditure 47045.50 46182 46822 47462 47737 49301 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 114.60 108 106 106 106 104 [+]
Services PMI 55.20 55.2 54.1 52.4 53.6 53.3 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 59.40 57.8 55.2 53.8 54.2 53.9 [+]
Composite Pmi 57.30 55.1 53 52.9 53.4 53.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 1.90 1 -0.6 1.3 1.5 2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.40 0.5 -0.9 0.8 -0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.40 1.4 -0.2 1 1.4 2.3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 86.00 84.7 84.8 84.9 85 83.7 percent [+]
New Orders 115.90 108 106 104 106 113 Index Points [+]
Factory Orders 1.00 1.5 -2.1 2.5 -0.8 0.6 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -7.97 -5.61 -5.74 -4.57 -4.39 -4.02 EUR Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 1580.00 1970 1810 1870 1657 1750 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 187.45 187 192 196 198 235 EUR Billion [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 20.60 12.2 8.6 9 16.2 25.3 [+]
Car Production 452100.00 516000 535000 366000 469111 373000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 290697.00 317000 302000 252000 275357 260000 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.57 5.57 5.57 5.57 5.63 5.87 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 5.00 5 5 5 4 3 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 17.00 16 16 16 15 13 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 82 82 82 83 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 9 9 9 8 7 [+]
Steel Production 3842.39 3780 3270 3000 3777 3050 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -1.00 -0.4 0.1 0.8 1.2 1.9 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 10.40 10.4 8.7 8.2 8.5 9 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.10 -0.4 -1 0.7 -0.6 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.30 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.4 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 395.46 395 396 397 399 414 EUR Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 475.41 474 476 478 480 508 EUR Billion [+]
Personal Savings 9.80 9.9 11 9.8 9.6 8 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 231929.00 245000 248000 252000 256000 298000 EUR Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 2760080.00 2740000 2750000 2750000 2817663 2820000 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.51 2.71 2.76 2.82 2.84 3.43 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.50 1.47 1.45 1.43 1.58 1.55 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 53.50 52.7 52.5 52.3 52.1 49.5 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 82.32 78.4 77.4 75.9 75.1 69.6 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output 6.60 2.2 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.1 percent [+]
Housing Index 137.53 138 141 143 145 159 Index Points [+]
Construction Orders 5.60 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.8 2.7 percent [+]
Building Permits 25547.00 33300 33900 34600 36080 49700 [+]
Construction Pmi 54.60 54.9 55.2 55 54.8 51.6 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 51.90 51.6 51.6 51.6 51.5 51 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.72 29.72 29.72 29.72 29.72 29.72 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 47.50 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.76 39.76 39.76 39.76 39.76 39.76 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.33 19.33 19.33 19.33 19.33 19.33 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 20.43 20.43 20.43 20.43 20.43 20.43 percent [+]