United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities was 0.94% in November of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities reached a record high of 100.00 in March of 2020 and a record low of 0.00 in September of 1971. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on February of 2026.