China - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.89 3.9 4 4 4.1 5 percent
Inflation Rate 1.80 2.1 2 2.3 3 2.7 percent
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.5 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade 287.80 490 510 560 350 350 USD HML
Government Debt to GDP 47.60 48.2 48.2 48.2 48.7 50.2 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 6.36
6.37 6.43 6.5 6.57 6.84
Stock Market 3214.36
points
3040 2952 2865 2782 2471
Government Bond 10Y 3.73
percent
3.88 3.99 4.1 4.21 4.7
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40
percent
1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.80
percent
6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 5.8
GDP 11199.15
USD Billion
12300 12300 12300 13100 13900
Gross National Product 742352.00
CNY HML
766478 766107 843573 789120 946943
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 318911.50
CNY HML
329276 329117 362396 339003 406803
GDP per capita 6894.50
USD
7400 7400 7400 7950 8330
GDP per capita PPP 14400.90
USD
15300 15300 15300 16300 18450
GDP From Agriculture 8904.00
CNY HML
22702 42548 69658 9199 78194
GDP From Construction 9583.00
CNY HML
23052 38457 59253 8888 66514
GDP From Manufacturing 68117.00
CNY HML
135509 208192 297917 65820 334423
GDP From Services 112428.00
CNY HML
213228 323997 454362 108452 510039
GDP From Transport 8861.00
CNY HML
18042 28036 39158 8616 43957
GDP Constant Prices 198683.00
CNY HML
393888 612273 880058 192066 987898
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.89
percent
3.9 4 4 4.1 5
Employed Persons 77640.00
Tens of Thousands
77690 77690 77690 77740 77820
Unemployed Persons 971.00
Tens of Thousands
969 966 964 962 944
Labour Costs 103.50
Index Points
104 104 102 104 103
Job Vacancies 4337000.00
5300000 5050000 4400000 6000000 4550000
Wages 74318.00
CNY/Year
76300 76300 76300 81100 85300
Wages in Manufacturing 64452.00
CNY/Year
67600 67600 67600 70500 74500
Minimum Wages 2420.00
CNY/Month
2420 2420 2420 2540 2630
Population 1390.08
Million
1398 1398 1398 1407 1415
Retirement Age Women 50.00
50 50 50 50 50
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.80
percent
2.1 2 2.3 3 2.7
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20
percent
0.12 0.2 0.3 0.18 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.80
Index Points
104 104 105 106 111
Core Consumer Prices 102.00
Index Points
104 104 104 104 108
Core Inflation Rate 2.00
percent
2.1 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.8
GDP Deflator 631.21
Index Points
628 632 628 635 640
Producer Prices 103.40
Index Points
108 110 108 106 118
Producer Prices Change 3.40
percent
2.8 3 3.1 2.9 5.5
Export Prices 98.08
Index Points
104 104 104 104 104
Import Prices 98.61
Index Points
107 109 108 109 108
Food Inflation 0.70
percent
1.1 1.4 1.7 2.2 3
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 4.35
percent
4.35 4.35 4.35 4.5 5.5
Cash Reserve Ratio 16.00
percent
16 16 16 15 15
Interbank Rate 4.18
percent
5.81 5.81 6.06 6.06 6.71
Money Supply M0 7150.00
CNY Billion
7758 7714 7706 7692 7538
Money Supply M1 52540.00
CNY Billion
51085 50847 50760 50710 50294
Money Supply M2 173770.00
CNY Billion
176852 175402 171749 167650 166195
Central Bank Balance Sheet 353225.27
CNY HML
357539 354360 353037 352702 352833
Banks Balance Sheet 1180.00
CNY Billion
1487 934 1223 1138 1144
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3125000.00
USD Million
3099916 3081843 3083891 3095059 2840000
Loans to Private Sector 15600.00
CNY HML
16151 14712 15237 15193 15152
Deposit Interest Rate 0.35
percent
0.35 0.35 0.35 0.5 0.7
Loan Growth 12.70
percent
12.7 12.6 12.6 12.5 11.7
Reverse Repo Rate 2.55
percent
2.6 2.6 2.6 2.65 3.5
Loans To Banks 1256799.21
CNY HML
1294555 1332864 1366982 1397069 1520253
Fixed Asset Investment 7.00
percent
7.9 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.2
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 287.80
USD HML
490 510 560 350 350
Exports 2004.90
USD HML
2150 2130 2200 2050 2230
Imports 1716.36
USD HML
1660 1620 1640 1700 1880
Current Account -282.00
USD HML
577 460 530 442 494
Current Account to GDP 1.30
percent
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.9 2
External Debt 17106.00
USD HML
17800 17800 17800 18500 19000
Terms of Trade 99.46
Index Points
97.17 95.94 96.31 95.46 95.84
Foreign Direct Investment 286.78
USD HML
670 950 1300 747 1500
Capital Flows 282.00
USD HML
-410 220 510 -86.02 620
Tourist Arrivals 2917.00
Tens of Thousands
2961 2961 2961 3050 3100
Gold Reserves 1842.60
Tonnes
1843 1843 1843 1843 1843
Crude Oil Production 3729.00
BBL/D/1K
3814 3815 3662 3814 3576
Terrorism Index 5.54
5.25 5.13 5 4.93 4.41
Weapons Sales 1131.00
USD Million
1554 1677 1801 1759 1529
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 47.60
percent
48.2 48.2 48.2 48.7 50.2
Government Budget -3.50
percent of GDP
-4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -3.8 -3.4
Government Budget Value -171.30
CNY HML
-98 -310 -359 -273 -496
Government Spending 203330.00
CNY HML
193946 193852 216343 199675 242853
Government Revenues 18473.00
CNY HML
18200 13500 11500 15000 13000
Fiscal Expenditure 14696.00
CNY HML
28000 21000 25000 22500 26800
Military Expenditure 228173.00
USD Million
256000 256000 256000 280000 300000
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 51.40
Index Points
51.7 50.9 51.4 51.6 51
Services PMI 52.90
Index Points
51.9 52.8 52.2 52.3 52
Manufacturing PMI 51.10
51.2 50.9 51.2 51.6 53.4
Non Manufacturing PMI 54.80
percent
54.5 54 54.6 53 52
Industrial Production 7.00
percent
7.1 6.5 6.4 6.2 5.2
Industrial Production Mom 0.61
percent
0.19 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.3
Manufacturing Production 7.40
percent
6.4 6.5 6 7.05 5.5
New Orders 52.90
Index Points
53.51 52.99 53.01 52.99 52.99
Changes in Inventories 10815.70
CNY HML
11088 11168 11249 11184 10896
Total Vehicle Sales 2318600.00
2557133 2701314 1942269 2567769 2370113
Car Production 1999800.00
Units
2279017 2307418 1654365 2237577 2035059
Car Registrations 1914400.00
2153980 2422434 1673058 2115781 2038473
Leading Economic Index 100.53
Index Points
102 102 104 100 107
Internet Speed 7583.32
KBps
10781 11056 11465 11849 11770
IP Addresses 98862937.00
IP
79012724 75461774 72038908 68739509 39428876
Steel Production 73980.00
Thousand Tonnes
65852 65633 65726 65776 65755
Mining Production -0.20
percent
0.9 0.8 0.5 -0.47 1.2
Capacity Utilization 76.50
percent
77 78 78 78.3 78.5
Competitiveness Index 5.00
Points
4.96 4.99 4.96 4.98 4.96
Competitiveness Rank 27.00
28 29 28 28 29
Composite Pmi 52.30
51.7 52.5 52.3 51.4 52.4
Cement Production 21072.20
Ten Thousands of Tonnes
21144 21522 21966 21426 21642
Corporate Profits 1553320.00
CNY Million
3700000 5620000 7700000 1720000 8250000
Ease of Doing Business 78.00
79 79 78 78 87
Electricity Production 569900.00
Gigawatt-hour
538374 539433 537392 536463 526345
Corruption Index 41.00
Points
41 41 41 41 42
Corruption Rank 77.00
78 78 78 81 77
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 122.30
Index Points
120 118 118 118 105
Retail Sales MoM 0.66
percent
0.74 0.67 0.5 0.71 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 9.40
percent
9.7 9.5 9.4 9.5 8
Consumer Spending 292661.30
CNY HML
302173 302026 332566 311099 373318
Disposable Personal Income 36396.00
CNY
37436 38270 39103 39709 45968
Personal Savings 0.35
percent
0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 1.1
Bank Lending Rate 4.35
percent
4.41 4.47 4.54 4.59 5.15
Consumer Credit 328697.84
CNY HML
336652 348083 358716 368468 418492
Gasoline Prices 0.87
USD/Liter
0.76 0.72 0.67 0.64 0.44
Households Debt To Gdp 48.00
percent of GDP
49 49.3 49.6 50 55
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 4.70
percent
4 4.5 5 5.2 4
Home Ownership Rate 90.00
percent
90 90 90 90 90
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 17.00
percent
17 17 17 17 17
Social Security Rate 48.00
percent
48 48 48 48 48
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00
percent
37 37 37 37 37
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 17.59
mm
64.56 89.56 20.21 17.24 48.95
Temperature -5.24
celsius
13.07 17.57 0.1 -4.26 6.78