China | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.97 4 4.1 4.1 4.2 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.1 4.1 5.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 407.90 300 384 400 381 415 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 46.20 50.2 46.7 55.43 48.14 65.49 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 6.84 6.88 6.95 7.15 7.08 8.17 [+]
Stock Market 3157.87 3100 3070 2980 3010 2510 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.59 3.62 3.65 3.69 3.72 4.3 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.90 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 5.8 percent [+]
GDP 11064.66 12600 12600 12600 13400 14800 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 742352.00 762118 786041 809963 822625 982649 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 318911.50 319806 328128 336451 341422 387422 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 6497.50 6890 6890 6890 6890 8330 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13571.70 14520 14520 14520 13958 18450 USD [+]
GDP Constant Prices 180683.00 364000 519000 696000 420292 790000 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Agriculture 8654.00 23000 42000 65000 31477 71372 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 8361.00 29003 25687 26220 26134 26146 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 61919.00 143059 132210 133660 133466 133489 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 102024.00 236179 217993 220458 220124 220164 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 8105.00 20338 18573 18827 18791 18795 CNY HML [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.97 4 4.1 4.1 4.2 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77603.00 77785 77818 77850 77908 78525 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 976.00 976 974 973 973 973 Thousand [+]
Labour Costs 103.60 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5903000.00 5459008 5176222 4912700 5928969 5350877 [+]
Wages 67569.00 75200 75200 75200 81300 90300 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 59470.00 61100 61100 61100 65600 74500 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2300.00 2300 2300 2300 2430 2620 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1374.62 1378 1379 1381 1381 1407 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.18 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.50 102 102 102 103 104 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.10 105 106 107 102 115 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.10 1.8 1.9 1.9 2 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 631.21 632 625 639 639 640 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 105.50 100 100 101 101 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.50 8.7 7.4 6 6.5 5.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 106.86 107 108 109 109 109 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 113.50 114 114 114 114 114 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -1.60 1.3 1.5 3 1.1 6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.1 4.1 5.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.00 16 16 16 16.99 20 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 4.75 4.76 4.25 5.1 5.1 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 6730.00 6807 6784 6780 6768 6650 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 49640.00 50137 51663 53168 54656 69961 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 160140.00 160862 161673 162363 162925 164790 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 342485.22 341038 341413 341435 341455 341663 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1110.00 1010 1000 1078 1078 1078 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3053567.00 3057356 3063005 3054069 3040365 2840000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 10600.00 16659 16045 15476 15464 15562 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50 1.25 1.55 1.72 1.78 3.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 12.90 14.1 13.78 13.2 15.59 12.7 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 1125976.52 1136904 1169323 1201760 1234116 1585638 CNY HML [+]
Reverse Repo Rate 2.45 2.49 2.47 2.48 2.48 2.49 percent [+]
Fixed Asset Investment 8.60 8.67 8.73 8.72 8.72 8.72 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 407.90 300 384 400 381 415 USD HML [+]
Exports 1910.30 1530 1804 1690 1792 2100 USD HML [+]
Imports 1502.20 1630 1515 1290 1503 1680 USD HML [+]
Current Account 190.00 641 362 279 374 413 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.80 2.75 2.49 2.24 2.39 3.12 percent [+]
External Debt 14207.00 15366 15317 15268 15526 18276 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 94.15 93.86 94.22 94.3 94.31 94.31 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 341.08 1120 755 1250 629 1290 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -190.00 12.53 111 138 -2.09 70.41 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 128.50 153 152 152 153 152 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1842.56 1844 1845 1846 1846 1846 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3929.00 3750 3733 3718 3949 3576 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 2123.00 1915 1923 1931 1876 2023 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 6.11 6.07 5.93 5.79 5.73 5.73 [+]
Exports to India 5949567.00 4842119 5813371 5427068 5706446 5550864 USD THO [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 46.20 50.2 46.7 55.43 48.14 65.49 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.80 -3.54 -4 -4.46 -4.22 -3.41 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -44.00 -801 -744 -720 -716 -716 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 187841.00 198654 200688 202723 206393 246179 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 16073.00 14088 13956 14304 14416 14551 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 16915.00 18941 17065 16634 16380 16366 CNY HML [+]
Military Expenditure 225712.60 241007 244110 247212 251959 302645 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 51.20 51.4 51.4 51 51.37 51 [+]
Services PMI 52.80 52.4 52.2 52.5 52.7 52 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.60 50.6 51.4 51.7 51.3 53.4 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 54.50 54.6 54.49 54.49 54.5 52 percent [+]
Industrial Production 6.50 5.8 5.7 5.8 6.64 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.51 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.61 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.90 5.2 6.82 6.83 6.86 4.5 percent [+]
New Orders 52.30 52.51 52.55 52.55 52.56 52.56 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 10815.70 11075 11166 11257 11196 10950 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2096000.00 2373148 2399082 2340920 2331299 2337758 [+]
Car Production 1747700.00 1932454 2037107 2000539 1986066 1992867 Units [+]
Car Registrations 1751300.00 1991072 2068835 2005427 1986189 2000108 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.20 -0.07 -0.01 0 0 0 percent [+]
Mining Production 0.50 0.06 -1.72 -0.7 -1.12 -1.04 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 55.90 55.05 55.1 55.1 55.1 55.1 [+]
Steel Production 72259.00 74147 72767 72651 72891 72904 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.95 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.99 4.95 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 26 26 26 29 29 [+]
Composite Pmi 51.50 51.29 51.17 51.11 51.08 51.07 [+]
Cement Production 22846.00 22174 21063 21416 21431 21384 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 2278030.00 2908802 4474652 3418560 3108355 3545342 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 78.00 78 76 74 75 94 [+]
Electricity Production 476700.00 506782 501459 502739 503077 503047 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 36 39 38 38 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 84 82 81 85 90 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 112.00 111 110 109 108 105 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.86 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.82 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 10.70 9.8 9.7 9.6 10.55 8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 292661.30 302128 307890 313652 320558 387162 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 33616.00 34752 35181 35610 36114 41768 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.5 1 1 0.29 3 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 116.60 116 116 116 116 116 [+]
Consumer Credit 273698.34 279431 295753 311428 326382 440761 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.70 0.68 0.67 0.65 0.65 0.58 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 44.40 45.68 46.28 47 47.74 55.69 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 10.40 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.75 2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]