China - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.83 3.8 4 4 4.2 5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.30 2 2.3 3 2.5 2.7 percent
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.5 4.5 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade 279.10 51000000000 560 250 280 350 USD HML
Government Debt to GDP 47.60 48.2 48.2 48.7 48.7 50.2 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 6.84
6.86 6.89 6.92 6.95 7.08
Stock Market 2797.49
points
2734 2698 2664 2629 2496
Government Bond 10Y 3.71
percent
3.69 3.72 3.76 3.8 3.94
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80
percent
1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.70
percent
6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 5.8
GDP 12237.70
USD Billion
12700 12700 13200 13200 13900
Gross National Product 824828.40
CNY HML
765038 879267 878442 878442 988871
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 346440.80
CNY HML
328580 369306 368959 368959 415341
GDP per capita 7329.09
USD
7400 7400 7950 7950 8330
GDP per capita PPP 15308.71
USD
16100 16100 16800 16800 18450
GDP From Agriculture 22087.00
CNY HML
42590 69789 9483 23523 78488
GDP From Construction 25169.20
CNY HML
38495 59364 10206 26805 66764
GDP From Manufacturing 144656.40
CNY HML
208393 298477 72545 154059 335683
GDP From Services 227575.60
CNY HML
324311 455216 119736 242368 511961
GDP From Transport 19042.10
CNY HML
28064 39232 9437 20280 44122
GDP Constant Prices 418961.00
CNY HML
612867 881712 211597 446193 991621
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.83
percent
3.8 4 4 4.2 5
Employed Persons 77640.00
Tens of Thousands
77690 77690 77740 77740 77820
Unemployed Persons 969.00
Tens of Thousands
967 967 967 967 968
Labour Costs 104.60
Index Points
105 102 105 105 103
Wages 74318.00
CNY/Year
79500 79500 84100 84100 88300
Wages in Manufacturing 64452.00
CNY/Year
69600 69600 74500 74500 79500
Minimum Wages 2420.00
CNY/Month
2420 2420 2540 2540 2630
Population 1390.08
Million
1398 1398 1407 1407 1415
Retirement Age Women 50.00
50 50 50 50 50
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.30
percent
2 2.3 3 2.5 2.7
Inflation Rate Mom 0.70
percent
0.23 0.3 0.18 0.18 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.30
Index Points
104 104 105 104 110
Core Consumer Prices 102.00
Index Points
104 104 104 104 108
Core Inflation Rate 2.00
percent
2.1 2.2 1.93 1.93 1.8
GDP Deflator 630.75
Index Points
633 628 634 634 640
Producer Prices 104.10
Index Points
111 109 107 109 120
Producer Prices Change 4.10
percent
4 4.1 3.9 4.2 5.5
Export Prices 101.00
Index Points
101 101 101 101 101
Import Prices 106.90
Index Points
108 109 110 110 110
Food Inflation 1.70
percent
1.4 1.7 2 2.2 2
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 4.35
percent
4.35 4.35 4.5 4.5 5.5
Cash Reserve Ratio 15.50
percent
16 16 15 15 15
Interbank Rate 3.71
percent
3.71 3.71 3.86 3.86 4.86
Money Supply M0 6980.00
CNY Billion
6966 6946 6930 6915 6765
Money Supply M1 53830.00
CNY Billion
54361 55185 55994 56779 63585
Money Supply M2 178870.00
CNY Billion
180240 183698 187211 190729 225391
Central Bank Balance Sheet 362616.86
CNY HML
364769 367402 370023 372556 393445
Banks Balance Sheet 1280.00
CNY Billion
1240 1252 1259 1259 1259
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3109716.00
USD Million
3107582 3101088 3094496 3088206 2840000
Loans to Private Sector 15200.00
CNY HML
15236 14699 14388 14399 14423
Deposit Interest Rate 0.35
percent
0.35 0.35 0.5 0.5 1.5
Loan Growth 13.20
percent
12.6 12.6 12.5 12.4 11.7
Loans To Banks 1313906.80
CNY HML
1325409 1363885 1401989 1440116 1817020
Reverse Repo Rate 2.55
percent
2.6 2.6 2.65 2.65 3.5
Fixed Asset Investment 5.30
percent
6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.2
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 279.10
USD HML
51000000000 560 250 280 350
Exports 2174.30
USD HML
2130 2200 2050 2062 2230
Imports 1895.20
USD HML
1820 1840 1800 1750 2000
Current Account 58.00
USD HML
260 330 -120 156 106
Current Account to GDP 1.30
percent
1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.2
External Debt 17106.00
USD HML
17800 17800 18500 18500 19000
Terms of Trade 94.48
Index Points
92.99 91.75 91.56 91.49 91.38
Foreign Direct Investment 865.00
USD HML
950 1300 747 1000 1500
Capital Flows -58.00
USD HML
220 510 474 377 620
Tourist Arrivals 2917.00
Tens of Thousands
2961 2961 3050 3050 3100
Gold Reserves 1842.60
Tonnes
1843 1843 1843 1843 1843
Crude Oil Production 3761.00
BBL/D/1K
3764 3662 3764 3764 3576
Terrorism Index 5.54
5.39 5.27 5.27 5.28 5.57
Weapons Sales 1131.00
USD Million
1750 1872 1840 1809 1735
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 47.60
percent
48.2 48.2 48.7 48.7 50.2
Government Budget -3.50
percent of GDP
-4.2 -4.2 -3.8 -3.8 -3.4
Government Budget Value -167.50
CNY HML
-310 -359 -273 -60 -496
Government Spending 203330.00
CNY HML
194040 216750 216546 216546 243769
Government Revenues 11077.00
CNY HML
13500 11500 15000 18600 13000
Fiscal Expenditure 15137.00
CNY HML
21000 25000 22500 28800 26800
Military Expenditure 228173.00
USD Million
256000 256000 280000 280000 300000
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 51.30
Index Points
50.9 51.4 51.6 52 51
Manufacturing PMI 50.60
50.9 51.2 51.6 50.9 53.4
Non Manufacturing PMI 54.20
percent
54 54.6 53 52.6 52
Services PMI 51.50
Index Points
52.8 52.2 52.3 53 52
Industrial Production 6.10
percent
6.1 6.2 6.2 6 5.2
Industrial Production Mom 0.52
percent
0.7 0.3 0.49 0.1 0.3
Manufacturing Production 6.10
percent
6.5 6 6.1 6.2 5.5
New Orders 52.20
Index Points
52.03 52.4 52.35 52.37 52.37
Changes in Inventories 14186.00
CNY HML
13121 13495 13353 13212 14565
Total Vehicle Sales 2103400.00
2390259 2405034 2387178 2389599 2390991
Car Production 1705200.00
Units
2036789 2044503 2031620 2033828 2034378
Car Registrations 1789900.00
2027668 2049179 2018426 2020696 2024431
Internet Speed 7583.32
KBps
10226 10629 11021 11404 14747
IP Addresses 98862937.00
IP
75461774 72038908 68739509 65559121 39428876
Mining Production 2.00
percent
2.8 1.5 -0.5 -0.4 1.2
Steel Production 81241.00
Thousand Tonnes
80816 81379 81399 81280 81289
Capacity Utilization 76.80
percent
77 77 77.3 77.4 77.5
Competitiveness Index 5.00
Points
5 5 5 5 5
Competitiveness Rank 27.00
27 27 27 27 26
Composite Pmi 52.00
52.5 52.3 51.4 52.4 52.4
Cement Production 20018.00
Ten Thousands of Tonnes
19284 19680 19657 19593 19620
Corporate Profits 3903810.00
CNY Million
5620000 7700000 1720000 3800000 8250000
Ease of Doing Business 78.00
79 79 78 78 77
Electricity Production 640000.00
Gigawatt-hour
568115 577395 572526 572807 572871
Corruption Index 41.00
Points
41 41 42 42 42
Corruption Rank 77.00
78 78 94 93 77
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 119.70
Index Points
118 117 116 115 105
Retail Sales MoM 0.65
percent
0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 9.00
percent
8.5 8.4 8.5 8.1 8
Consumer Spending 317509.70
CNY HML
303127 338465 338148 338148 380656
Disposable Personal Income 36396.00
CNY
38270 39103 39709 40315 45968
Personal Savings 0.35
percent
0.3 0.35 0.3 0.3 1.1
Bank Lending Rate 4.35
percent
4.35 4.35 4.5 4.5 5.5
Consumer Credit 350646.49
CNY HML
355357 370644 385226 399073 495266
Gasoline Prices 0.89
USD/Liter
0.91 0.86 0.81 0.76 0.6
Households Debt To Gdp 48.40
percent of GDP
49.3 49.6 50 51 55
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 7.00
percent
4.9 5 5.2 5 4
Home Ownership Rate 90.00
percent
90 90 90 90 90
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 17.00
percent
17 17 17 17 17
Social Security Rate 48.00
percent
48 48 48 48 48
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00
percent
37 37 37 37 37
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature -5.24
celsius
17.57 0.1 -4.26 17.58 6.78
Precipitation 17.59
mm
89.56 20.21 17.24 47.56 48.95