This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.1 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.82 4 4 4.2 4.2 4 percent
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.6 percent
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade 340.16 560 150 210 190 350 USD HML
Government Debt to GDP 47.60 48.2 48.7 48.7 48.7 50.2 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 6.93
6.92 6.95 6.98 7.01 7.14
Stock Market 2703.51
points
2783 2745 2708 2671 2529
Government Bond 10Y 3.38
percent
3.68 3.72 3.75 3.79 3.94
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60
percent
1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.50
percent
6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 5.8
GDP 12237.70
USD Billion
12700 13200 13200 13200 13900
Gross National Product 824828.40
CNY HML
879267 878442 878442 877617 988871
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 346440.80
CNY HML
369306 368959 368959 368613 415341
GDP per capita 7329.09
USD
7400 7950 7950 7950 8330
GDP per capita PPP 15308.71
USD
16100 16800 16800 16800 18450
GDP From Agriculture 42173.00
CNY HML
69788 9483 23523 44872 78488
GDP From Construction 41590.00
CNY HML
59364 10206 26805 44252 66764
GDP From Manufacturing 222165.00
CNY HML
298477 72545 154059 236384 335683
GDP From Services 345773.00
CNY HML
455216 119736 242368 367902 511960
GDP From Transport 29556.00
CNY HML
39232 9437 20280 31448 44122
GDP Constant Prices 650899.00
CNY HML
881712 211704 446194 692557 991621
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.82
percent
4 4 4.2 4.2 4
Employed Persons 77640.00
Tens of Thousands
77690 77740 77740 77688 77820
Unemployed Persons 968.00
Tens of Thousands
968 968 968 969 969
Labour Costs 104.80
Index Points
102 105 105 105 103
Wages 74318.00
CNY/Year
79500 84100 84100 84100 88300
Wages in Manufacturing 64452.00
CNY/Year
69600 74500 74500 74500 79500
Minimum Wages 2420.00
CNY/Month
2420 2540 2540 2540 2630
Population 1390.08
Million
1398 1407 1407 1404 1415
Retirement Age Women 50.00
50 50 50 50 50
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.50
percent
2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.6
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent
0.3 0.21 0.18 0.19 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.50
Index Points
104 105 104 105 110
Core Consumer Prices 101.80
Index Points
104 104 104 103 108
Core Inflation Rate 1.80
percent
2.2 1.66 1.65 1.65 1.8
GDP Deflator 656.41
Index Points
628 679 682 685 640
Producer Prices 103.30
Index Points
109 107 109 108 119
Producer Prices Change 3.30
percent
3.5 3.9 4.2 4 5.5
Export Prices 104.10
Index Points
104 104 105 105 105
Import Prices 105.80
Index Points
107 108 108 108 108
Food Inflation 3.30
percent
1.7 2 2.2 2.2 2
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 4.35
percent
4.35 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.5
Cash Reserve Ratio 14.50
percent
14.5 14.5 14 14 13
Interbank Rate 3.62
percent
3.13 3.28 3.28 3.28 4.28
Money Supply M0 7010.00
CNY Billion
6998 6990 6977 6962 6829
Money Supply M1 54010.00
CNY Billion
54490 55098 55692 56265 60595
Money Supply M2 179560.00
CNY Billion
182068 185120 188341 191577 220250
Central Bank Balance Sheet 366229.75
CNY HML
368656 371487 374282 376986 397486
Banks Balance Sheet 697.00
CNY Billion
1350 1222 1223 1224 1223
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3053098.00
USD Million
3024192 2987118 2960166 2937795 2840000
Loans to Private Sector 7288.00
CNY HML
13888 13994 14683 14970 14961
Deposit Interest Rate 0.35
percent
0.35 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5
Loan Growth 13.10
percent
13 12.5 12.4 13.1 11.7
Loans To Banks 1327637.38
CNY HML
1366212 1405232 1444055 1482827 1828251
Reverse Repo Rate 2.55
percent
2.6 2.65 2.65 2.65 3.5
Fixed Asset Investment 5.70
percent
6.4 6.4 6.5 5.76 6.2
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 340.16
USD HML
560 150 210 190 350
Exports 2172.83
USD HML
2100 1950 1960 2010 2130
Imports 1832.67
USD HML
1840 1800 1750 1820 2000
Current Account 160.00
USD HML
330 -138 72.22 118 67.52
Current Account to GDP 1.30
percent
1 0.8 0.8 0.8 1
External Debt 17106.00
USD HML
17800 18500 18500 16581 19000
Terms of Trade 98.39
Index Points
97.03 96.86 97.04 97.02 97.09
Foreign Direct Investment 1076.60
USD HML
1300 747 1000 717 1500
Capital Flows -160.00
USD HML
510 275 77.75 12.96 620
Tourist Arrivals 2917.00
Tens of Thousands
2961 3050 3050 2978 3100
Gold Reserves 1842.60
Tonnes
1843 1843 1843 1843 1843
Crude Oil Production 3732.00
BBL/D/1K
3662 3765 3765 3765 3576
Terrorism Index 5.54
5.54 5.54 5.54 5.54 5.54
Weapons Sales 1131.00
USD Million
1872 1840 1809 1777 1735
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 47.60
percent
48.2 48.7 48.7 48.7 50.2
Government Budget -3.50
percent of GDP
-4.2 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.4
Government Budget Value -357.10
CNY HML
-359 -273 -60 -537 -496
Government Spending 203330.00
CNY HML
216750 216546 216546 216343 243769
Government Revenues 15727.00
CNY HML
11500 15000 18600 15021 13000
Fiscal Expenditure 12031.00
CNY HML
25000 22500 28800 18378 26800
Military Expenditure 228173.00
USD Million
256000 280000 280000 244916 300000
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 50.20
Index Points
51.4 51.6 52 51.3 51
Manufacturing PMI 50.10
51.2 51.6 50.9 50.8 50.1
Non Manufacturing PMI 53.90
percent
54.6 53 52.6 54.2 52
Services PMI 50.80
Index Points
52.2 52.3 53 52.38 52
Industrial Production 5.90
percent
6.2 6.2 6 6.5 5.2
Industrial Production Mom 0.48
percent
0.3 0.48 0.1 0.2 0.3
Manufacturing Production 6.10
percent
6 6.1 6.2 5.9 5.5
New Orders 50.80
Index Points
51.15 51.24 51.19 51.19 51.19
Changes in Inventories 14186.00
CNY HML
13495 13353 13212 13070 14565
Total Vehicle Sales 2380100.00
2430592 2329318 2334136 2345062 2342291
Car Production 2002200.00
Units
2044078 1972771 1975625 1981941 1980111
Car Registrations 2046800.00
2103257 1983887 1984064 2005411 2000438
Internet Speed 7583.32
KBps
10629 11021 11404 11778 14747
IP Addresses 98862937.00
IP
72038908 68739509 65559121 62493452 39428876
Mining Production 3.80
percent
1.5 -0.5 -0.4 2.88 1.2
Steel Production 80845.00
Thousand Tonnes
81269 81036 80950 80990 81001
Capacity Utilization 76.50
percent
77 77.3 77.4 77.5 77.5
Competitiveness Index 72.61
Points
73.11 73.11 73.11 73.11 75.61
Competitiveness Rank 28.00
28 28 28 28 28
Composite Pmi 50.50
52.3 51.4 52.4 52.2 52.4
Cement Production 22043.20
Ten Thousands of Tonnes
20740 20141 20575 20475 20470
Corporate Profits 4917340.00
CNY Million
7700000 1720000 3800000 4102204 8250000
Ease of Doing Business 46.00
79 78 78 78 77
Electricity Production 533000.00
Gigawatt-hour
577299 564328 566903 566865 566782
Corruption Index 41.00
Points
41 41 41 41 41
Corruption Rank 77.00
77 77 77 77 77
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 119.10
Index Points
118 117 116 115 105
Retail Sales MoM 0.64
percent
0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 8.60
percent
8.4 8.5 8.1 7.7 8
Consumer Spending 317509.70
CNY HML
338465 338148 338148 337830 380656
Disposable Personal Income 36396.00
CNY
39103 39709 40315 40921 45968
Personal Savings 0.35
percent
0.35 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1
Bank Lending Rate 4.35
percent
4.35 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.5
Consumer Credit 356536.29
CNY HML
373351 389534 405011 419768 519138
Gasoline Prices 0.92
USD/Liter
0.91 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.8
Households Debt To GDP 49.30
percent of GDP
49.6 50 51 51 55
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Index 8.60
percent
8.2 8.5 8 7.8 6
Home Ownership Rate 90.00
percent
90 90 90 90 90
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 17.00
percent
17 17 17 17 17
Social Security Rate 48.00
percent
48 48 48 48 48
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00
percent
37 37 37 37 37
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature -5.24
celsius
0.1 -4.26 17.58 10.66 6.78
Precipitation 17.59
mm
20.21 17.24 47.56 46.91 48.95



China - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook