China | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

The Chinese economy is expected to decelerate in 2017 as the property sector cools, manufacturing growth slows, and government fiscal stimulus is pulled back due to unsustainable levels of debt. The growth trajectory so far this year is consistent with central bank target of 6.5 percent. As a result of government intervention in the housing market via ongoing regulatory curbs, housing price growth is expected to slow down. Private and state investment especially that of infrastructure is expected to continue to drive growth although excessive investment will indicate a problem of overcapacity. Inflation is forecasted to gradually recover and reach 2.1 percent by the end of the year, in line with PBoC targets. However, Moody's recent downgrade of China's debt rating from Aa3 to A1 will be expected to dampen the ability of 'loose' credit to prop up the nation's finances and may signal a call to action for policymakers to end the reliance on debt. This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.95 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.80 1.4 1.7 2 2.4 3.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.1 5.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 419.92 480 400 450 490 350 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 46.20 46.7 46.7 48.2 48.2 50.2 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 6.61 6.53 6.47 6.4 6.34 5.61 [+]
Stock Market 3341.55 3150 3120 3090 3060 2710 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.68 3.66 3.69 3.73 3.76 4.16 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.90 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 5.8 percent [+]
GDP 11199.15 11500 11500 12300 12300 13900 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 742352.00 786041 809963 822625 835288 982649 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 318911.50 328128 336451 341422 346394 387422 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 6894.50 6890 6890 6890 6890 8330 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 14400.90 14520 14520 15300 15300 18450 USD [+]
GDP Constant Prices 381490.00 519000 796000 200000 420000 890000 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Agriculture 21987.00 42000 65000 29912 29897 71372 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 22326.30 33050 49409 8713 22163 49059 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 131243.70 131779 131711 131720 131719 131719 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 206516.00 215512 214471 214591 214577 214579 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 17474.50 18458 18333 18349 18347 18347 CNY HML [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.95 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77603.00 77818 77850 77908 77967 78525 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 976.00 975 973 973 973 974 Tens of Thousands [+]
Labour Costs 103.50 103 103 104 103 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5231000.00 5011734 4791072 5819341 5168202 5185877 [+]
Wages 67569.00 72200 72200 76300 76300 85300 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 59470.00 63100 63100 67600 67600 74500 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2300.00 2300 2300 2430 2430 2620 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1374.62 1379 1381 1381 1381 1407 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.80 1.4 1.7 2 2.4 3.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.4 0.4 0.16 0.15 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.80 102 102 103 103 104 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.20 103 103 103 104 111 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.20 2 2.1 2 2.1 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 631.21 625 639 639 640 640 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 106.30 105 106 106 107 110 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 6.30 5.5 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 103.99 105 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 106.72 105 104 104 103 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -0.20 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.3 6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.1 5.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.00 17 17 17 17 20 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 4.90 4.25 4.59 4.4 4.26 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 6760.00 6717 6703 6692 6681 6572 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 51810.00 52191 53812 55423 57016 72159 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 164520.00 165748 168983 172385 175825 209786 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 347144.40 350479 354153 357324 360271 382024 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1090.00 1000 1091 1098 1098 1098 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3092000.00 3098985 3121265 3132321 3136326 2840000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 14800.00 15844 15289 15370 15493 15510 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50 1.55 1.72 1.78 1.84 3.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 13.20 12.8 12.5 12.5 12.4 11.7 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 1160508.73 1171159 1204911 1237735 1270688 1596079 CNY HML [+]
Reverse Repo Rate 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 percent [+]
Fixed Asset Investment 7.80 8.3 8 8.1 7.9 7.2 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 419.92 480 400 450 490 350 USD HML [+]
Exports 1992.29 1900 1990 2000 2150 2230 USD HML [+]
Imports 1571.86 1420 1590 1550 1660 1880 USD HML [+]
Current Account 529.00 294 250 316 400 347 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.80 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2 percent [+]
External Debt 14207.00 15317 15268 15526 15783 18276 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 97.44 98.86 98.7 98.67 98.67 98.67 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 836.60 734 1250 649 667 1290 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -529.00 150 470 320 -410 620 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 128.50 100 100 100 100 100 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1842.56 1843 1844 1844 1844 1844 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3829.00 3733 3718 3859 3860 3576 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 2123.00 1923 1931 1876 1821 2023 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 6.11 5.93 5.79 5.73 5.67 5.73 [+]
Exports to India 6094426.00 5721218 5401520 5189446 5078280 4923106 USD THO [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 46.20 46.7 46.7 48.2 48.2 50.2 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.80 -4 -4 -4.2 -4.2 -3.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 17.70 -761 -703 -675 -670 -668 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 187841.00 200688 202723 206393 210064 246179 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 10652.00 15215 15372 15347 15314 15293 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 14647.00 21161 18132 16569 15652 11329 CNY HML [+]
Military Expenditure 225712.60 244110 247212 251959 256706 302645 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 51.70 51.81 51.7 50.9 51 51 [+]
Services PMI 52.70 52.2 52.5 52.7 51.9 52 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.60 50.4 51.7 51.3 51.2 53.4 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 53.40 54.5 54.4 53.72 54 52 percent [+]
Industrial Production 6.00 6.2 6 5.9 5.8 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.46 0.3 0.2 0.59 0.59 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.90 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.4 5.5 percent [+]
New Orders 53.10 53.27 53.03 53.07 53.07 53.07 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 10815.70 11166 11257 11196 11135 10950 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2186000.00 2112638 2079191 2050187 2021552 1771925 [+]
Car Production 1789600.00 1771084 1735813 1703654 1673323 1448022 Units [+]
Car Registrations 1875200.00 1894969 1932683 1900396 1900210 1906545 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.20 0.1 0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 percent [+]
Mining Production -3.40 0.9 1.3 1.5 0.9 1.2 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 55.90 55.1 55.1 55.1 55.1 55.1 [+]
Steel Production 74594.00 74084 74246 74276 74248 74244 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.95 4.93 4.93 4.97 4.99 4.95 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 26 26 29 29 29 [+]
Composite Pmi 52.40 51 51.4 52 51.7 52.4 [+]
Cement Production 21185.00 20953 21382 21341 21279 21308 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 4248120.00 4369848 3346911 3339876 3810750 3608606 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 78.00 76 74 75 76 94 [+]
Electricity Production 594500.00 501459 502739 503077 503033 503047 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 39 38 38 38 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 82 81 85 89 90 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 114.70 113 112 110 109 105 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.76 0.6 0.6 0.82 0.82 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 10.10 10.5 10.6 10.4 10 8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 292661.30 307890 313652 320558 327464 387162 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 33616.00 35181 35610 36114 36618 41768 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 1.1 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 116.60 116 116 116 116 116 [+]
Consumer Credit 291009.58 296569 312744 328224 342982 449389 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.58 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 45.50 46.28 47 47.74 48.49 55.69 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Index 8.30 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.1 2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]