China | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.95 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.70 2 2 2.1 2 3.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.6 4.6 5.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 402.10 400 450 490 510 350 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 46.20 46.7 48.2 48.2 48.7 50.2 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 6.61 6.59 6.53 6.46 6.39 5.66 [+]
Stock Market 3267.92 3320 3280 3250 3210 2850 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.93 3.69 3.72 3.76 3.8 4.2 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.80 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5 5.8 percent [+]
GDP 11199.15 11500 12300 12300 12300 13900 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 742352.00 803951 815604 827257 838910 953562 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 318911.50 336451 341422 346394 351366 387422 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 6894.50 7090 7400 7400 7400 8330 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 14400.90 14520 15300 15300 15300 18450 USD [+]
GDP Constant Prices 593288.00 796000 200000 420000 592936 890000 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Agriculture 41229.00 65000 8958 21844 41077 71372 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 37265.00 49210 8549 22309 37279 48299 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 201736.00 183916 62950 133032 201948 172869 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 313951.00 381926 105017 205306 313464 375336 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 27167.00 33168 8275 17428 27155 32624 CNY HML [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.95 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77603.00 77594 77577 77560 77543 77213 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 979.00 976 975 974 972 956 Tens of Thousands [+]
Labour Costs 104.00 104 105 105 105 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5231000.00 4797640 5263706 5197074 5088842 5040639 [+]
Wages 67569.00 72200 76300 76300 76300 85300 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 59470.00 63100 67600 67600 67600 74500 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2300.00 2300 2430 2430 2430 2620 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1378.67 1381 1382 1382 1383 1387 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.70 2 2 2.1 2 3.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.4 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.70 102 103 103 104 104 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.30 103 103 104 104 111 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.30 2.1 2 2.1 2.1 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 631.21 637 637 636 636 640 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 105.80 107 107 108 108 111 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.80 6.3 6.5 5.9 5.2 5.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 102.33 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 106.61 102 101 101 102 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -1.10 0.8 1 1.1 1.4 3 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.6 4.6 5.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.00 17 17 17 17 20 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.38 4.89 4.88 4.65 4.47 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 6860.00 6805 6804 6796 6785 6689 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 53560.00 52825 53079 53129 53125 52907 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 167000.00 166880 168000 168861 169476 169090 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 362473.88 351575 351976 351927 351691 348259 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1120.00 854 796 745 712 633 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3119000.00 3126590 3137311 3141651 3141406 2840000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 16000.00 12930 11827 11225 10712 9051 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50 1.84 1.98 2.11 2.25 3.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 13.30 12.5 12.5 12.4 15.55 11.7 percent [+]
Reverse Repo Rate 2.50 2.6 2.7 2.75 2.75 3.5 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 1191183.42 1204109 1231677 1255648 1276202 1338227 CNY HML [+]
Fixed Asset Investment 7.20 7.7 7.6 7.9 7.5 7.2 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 402.10 400 450 490 510 350 USD HML [+]
Exports 2173.69 1990 2000 2150 2130 2230 USD HML [+]
Imports 1771.11 1590 1550 1660 1620 1880 USD HML [+]
Current Account 371.00 280 310 370 460 344 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.80 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2 percent [+]
External Debt 14207.00 18279 18284 18288 18292 21298 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 95.98 99.21 99.86 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1215.85 1250 471 426 425 1290 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -371.00 470 320 -410 220 620 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 128.50 137 136 136 135 133 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1842.56 1813 1798 1781 1765 1631 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3758.00 3718 3788 3787 3785 3576 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 5.54 5.48 5.34 5.21 5.07 4.44 [+]
Weapons Sales 2123.00 1662 1647 1632 1616 1511 USD Million [+]
Exports to India 6202592.00 5098915 5035227 4985729 4964660 4945162 USD THO [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 46.20 46.7 48.2 48.2 48.7 50.2 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.80 -4 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -3.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -36.50 -277 -278 -277 -278 -282 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 187841.00 205613 209003 212393 215784 246574 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 11385.00 12627 12775 12900 12942 12004 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 16566.00 16827 14796 13533 12677 8947 CNY HML [+]
Military Expenditure 225712.60 237221 239693 242166 244638 263723 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 51.80 51.7 50.9 51 51.6 51 [+]
Services PMI 51.90 52.5 52.7 51.9 52.2 52 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.80 51.7 51.3 51.2 50.9 53.4 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 54.80 54.4 55.06 54 55.33 52 percent [+]
Industrial Production 6.10 6 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.48 0.2 0.54 0.19 0.7 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.80 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.5 5.5 percent [+]
New Orders 53.60 54.46 54.03 54.04 54.01 53.96 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 10815.70 10741 10565 10389 10213 9235 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2957600.00 2641154 2598762 2564803 2532775 2273695 [+]
Car Production 2669100.00 2167491 2119319 2076468 2035662 1741582 Units [+]
Car Registrations 2589500.00 2313079 2240762 2178784 2121535 1732407 [+]
Leading Economic Index 100.59 101 101 102 102 107 Index Points [+]
Internet Speed 7583.32 9558 9994 10781 11056 12380 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 98862937.00 81123840 75608212 70456314 65619385 41882833 IP [+]
Steel Production 72362.00 71772 71679 71518 71348 69854 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -1.70 1.3 1.5 0.9 0.8 1.2 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.80 76.27 75.59 75.04 74.72 75.04 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.00 4.95 4.99 4.96 4.99 4.97 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 27.00 28 28 28 29 29 [+]
Composite Pmi 51.60 51.4 52 51.7 51.16 52.4 [+]
Cement Production 22051.00 21626 21644 21362 21183 19528 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 6245080.00 5336887 3950109 2977650 2397392 1487763 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 78.00 78 79 79 79 87 [+]
Electricity Production 503800.00 552018 534353 533291 534247 525607 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 40 41 41 41 42 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 79 78 78 78 77 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 121.30 118 117 115 114 105 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.83 0.6 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 10.20 10.6 10.4 10 10.74 8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 292661.30 318023 324264 330506 336748 389890 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 33616.00 35728 36202 36677 37152 41365 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.4 1.1 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.36 4.42 4.48 4.54 5.02 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 301620.12 313994 330335 345998 360960 462638 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.77 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.58 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 46.80 47.55 47.59 47.53 47.39 45.42 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 5.10 7.7 7.6 7.1 6.8 2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 17.00 42.65 52.55 49.86 43.68 48.25 mm [+]
Temperature -5.00 -4.23 0.96 17.32 11.95 -3.01 celsius [+]