China | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

The Chinese economy is expected to decelerate in 2017 as the property sector cools, manufacturing growth slows, and government fiscal stimulus is pulled back due to unsustainable levels of debt. The growth trajectory so far this year is consistent with central bank target of 6.5 percent. As a result of government intervention in the housing market via ongoing regulatory curbs, housing price growth is expected to slow down. Private and state investment especially that of infrastructure is expected to continue to drive growth although excessive investment will indicate a problem of overcapacity. Inflation is forecasted to gradually recover and reach 2.1 percent by the end of the year, in line with PBoC targets. However, Moody's recent downgrade of China's debt rating from Aa3 to A1 will be expected to dampen the ability of 'loose' credit to prop up the nation's finances and may signal a call to action for policymakers to end the reliance on debt. This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.97 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.4 1.7 2 2.4 3.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.1 5.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 427.50 480 400 250 490 415 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 46.20 46.7 46.7 48.2 48.2 50.2 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 6.76 6.88 6.95 7.01 7.08 7.83 [+]
Stock Market 3243.69 3150 3120 3090 3060 2710 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.60 3.66 3.69 3.73 3.76 4.16 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.90 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 5.8 percent [+]
GDP 11199.15 11500 11500 12300 12300 13900 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 742352.00 786041 809963 822625 835288 982649 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 318911.50 328128 336451 341422 346394 387422 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 6894.50 6890 6890 6890 6890 8330 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 14400.90 14520 14520 15300 15300 18450 USD [+]
GDP Constant Prices 381490.00 519000 796000 200000 420000 890000 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Agriculture 21987.00 42000 65000 29912 29897 71372 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 22326.30 33050 49409 8713 22163 49059 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 131243.70 131779 131711 131720 131719 131719 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 206516.00 215512 214471 214591 214577 214579 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 17474.50 18458 18333 18349 18347 18347 CNY HML [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.97 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77603.00 77818 77850 77908 77967 78525 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 976.00 974 973 973 973 973 Thousand [+]
Labour Costs 103.50 103 103 104 103 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5231000.00 5011734 4791072 5819341 5168202 5185877 [+]
Wages 67569.00 72200 72200 76300 76300 85300 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 59470.00 63100 63100 67600 67600 74500 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2300.00 2300 2300 2430 2430 2620 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1374.62 1379 1381 1381 1381 1407 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.4 1.7 2 2.4 3.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.4 0.4 0.17 0.17 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.50 102 102 103 103 104 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.20 103 103 103 104 111 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.20 2 2 2 2.1 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 631.21 625 639 639 640 640 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 105.50 105 106 106 107 110 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.50 5.5 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 105.44 107 107 107 107 107 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 112.44 112 112 111 111 111 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -1.20 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.3 6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.1 5.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.00 17 17 17 17 20 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 4.54 4.25 4.48 4.47 4.47 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 6700.00 6729 6717 6704 6694 6585 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 51020.00 52409 54102 55770 57421 73170 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 163130.00 166471 169976 173542 177122 212436 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 345025.62 345451 346730 348016 349215 357426 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1540.00 1000 1135 1141 1141 1141 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3056789.00 3061972 3052716 3038773 3023688 2840000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 17800.00 16287 15558 15586 15688 15706 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50 1.55 1.72 1.78 1.84 3.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 12.90 12.8 12.5 12.5 12.4 11.7 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 1141255.77 1174207 1208431 1242214 1276019 1609871 CNY HML [+]
Reverse Repo Rate 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.46 percent [+]
Fixed Asset Investment 8.60 8.3 8 8.1 7.9 7.2 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 427.50 480 400 250 490 415 USD HML [+]
Exports 1965.91 1900 1890 1700 1750 2100 USD HML [+]
Imports 1538.26 1420 1490 1450 1260 1680 USD HML [+]
Current Account 184.00 360 275 370 484 410 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.80 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2 percent [+]
External Debt 14207.00 15317 15268 15526 15783 18276 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 93.78 93.81 93.87 93.88 93.88 93.88 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 650.74 769 1250 638 666 1290 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -190.00 111 138 -2.09 64.65 70.41 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 128.50 152 152 153 153 152 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1842.56 1845 1846 1846 1846 1846 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3903.00 3733 3718 3940 3948 3576 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 2123.00 1923 1931 1876 1821 2023 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 6.11 5.93 5.79 5.73 5.67 5.73 [+]
Exports to India 6087765.00 6316711 6246407 6322997 6291611 6301000 USD THO [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 46.20 46.7 46.7 48.2 48.2 50.2 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.80 -4 -4 -4.2 -4.2 -3.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 15.40 -840 -759 -729 -714 -699 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 187841.00 200688 202723 206393 210064 246179 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 17082.00 15235 15345 15268 15218 15174 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 27016.00 19483 18994 17751 17493 17317 CNY HML [+]
Military Expenditure 225712.60 244110 247212 251959 256706 302645 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 51.70 51.62 51 50.9 51 51 [+]
Services PMI 51.60 52.2 52.5 52.7 51.9 52 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.40 50.4 51.7 51.3 51.2 53.4 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 54.90 54.5 54.4 54.76 54 52 percent [+]
Industrial Production 7.60 6.2 6 5.9 5.8 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.81 0.3 0.2 0.64 0.63 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 8.00 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.4 5.5 percent [+]
New Orders 53.10 52.99 53.05 53.02 53.03 53.03 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 10815.70 11166 11257 11196 11135 10950 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2171900.00 2306319 2293844 2275912 2281404 2282186 [+]
Car Production 1844900.00 1995751 1979187 1959568 1965823 1966174 Units [+]
Car Registrations 1831800.00 1985133 1973630 1944042 1952015 1954394 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.20 0.1 0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 percent [+]
Mining Production -0.10 0.9 1.3 1.5 0.9 1.2 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 55.90 55.1 55.1 55.1 55.1 55.1 [+]
Steel Production 73231.00 71976 71979 72198 72231 72187 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.95 4.93 4.93 4.97 4.99 4.95 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 26 26 29 29 29 [+]
Composite Pmi 51.10 51 51.4 52 51.7 52.4 [+]
Cement Production 22080.90 21042 21400 21398 21330 21357 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 2904760.00 4573712 3199336 3408154 4012256 3694151 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 78.00 76 74 75 76 94 [+]
Electricity Production 476700.00 501459 502739 503077 503033 503047 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 39 38 38 38 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 82 81 85 89 90 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 113.30 112 110 109 108 105 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.93 0.6 0.6 0.84 0.84 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 11.00 10.5 10.6 10.4 10 8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 292661.30 307890 313652 320558 327464 387162 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 33616.00 35181 35610 36114 36618 41768 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 1.1 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 116.60 116 116 116 116 116 [+]
Consumer Credit 280011.40 296993 313501 329324 344437 454750 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.66 0.67 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.58 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 44.40 46.28 47 47.74 48.49 55.69 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Index 10.20 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.1 2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]