Markets Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Currency 6.38 6.45 6.47 6.49 6.51 6.55
Stock Market (points) 3582.60 3486 3401 3318 3238 3082
Government Bond 10Y (%) 2.99 3.01 3.04 3.06 3.09 3.15

Overview Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.20 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 4.90 5.6 5.6 6 5.5 5.9
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.90 5.1 5.1 5.1 5 5.2
Inflation Rate (%) 0.70 1 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.00 0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.85
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 12.00 12 12 12 12 12
Balance of Trade (USD HML) 667.58 210 420 700 850 910
Current Account (USD HML) 528.00 340 -250 600 600 400
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) 1.90 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 66.80 69 72 72 72 70
Government Budget (% of GDP) -3.70 -3.2 -3 -3 -3 -3
Business Confidence (points) 49.60 52 51.8 51.6 51.5 52
Services PMI (points) 53.40 50.2 52 51 50.5 51.5
Non Manufacturing PMI (%) 53.20 51 50.8 51 52 50.9
Manufacturing PMI (points) 50.00 50.3 50.5 50.5 51 51.3
Consumer Confidence (points) 117.50 120 118 119 117 120
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.30 0.3 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 25.00 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45

GDP Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.20 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 4.90 5.6 5.6 6 5.5 5.9
GDP (USD Billion) 14722.73 15600 16700 16700 16700 16700
Gross National Product (CNY HML) 1009151.00 1065663 1065663 1069700 1064654 1128538
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (CNY HML) 435682.60 460081 460081 461824 459645 487226
GDP per capita (USD) 8405.18 8840 9020 9020 9020 9020
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 16410.80 17700 18210 18210 18210 18210
GDP Constant Prices (CNY HML) 791907.10 962233 258889 544297 835462 1019005
GDP From Agriculture (CNY HML) 51430.10 82108 11967 30106 54259 86953
GDP From Construction (CNY HML) 54537.50 77083 12690 35335 57537 81631
GDP From Manufacturing (CNY HML) 267640.10 330603 85505 185082 282360 350109
GDP From Services (CNY HML) 450761.40 585000 153495 314408 475553 619514
GDP From Transport (CNY HML) 35457.00 43889 10631 24066 37407 46479

Labour Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.90 5.1 5.1 5.1 5 5.2
Employed Persons (Tens of Thousands ) 78657.00 78820 79000 79000 79000 77820
Unemployed Persons (Tens of Thousands ) 1042.00 1060 1000 920 910 950
Wages (CNY/Year) 97379.00 102500 108100 108100 108100 108100
Wages in Manufacturing (CNY/Year) 82783.00 84100 87600 87600 87600 87600
Minimum Wages (CNY/Month) 2480.00 2540 2650 2650 2650 2650
Population (Million) 1443.50 1465 1495 1495 1495 1495
Retirement Age Women 55.00 50 50 50 50 50
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60

Prices Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Inflation Rate (%) 0.70 1 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.00 0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 100.60 113 102 102 103 115
Core Consumer Prices (points) 101.20 102 101 102 102 103
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.20 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.4
GDP Deflator (points) 689.46 695 696 698 701 714
Producer Prices (points) 110.30 106 106 106 106 106
Producer Prices Change (%) 10.70 9.9 4.7 4 3.9 3
Export Prices (points) 106.50 108 107 107 105 108
Import Prices (points) 115.70 110 105 105 100 102
Food Inflation (%) -5.20 0.4 1.9 2.1 2.9 3

Money Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Interest Rate (%) 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.85
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 12.00 12 12 12 12 12
Interbank Rate (%) 2.98 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99
Money Supply M0 (CNY Billion) 8690.00 8887 9210 9210 8900 9220
Money Supply M1 (CNY Billion) 62460.00 63000 63300 63300 61000 60841
Money Supply M2 (CNY Billion) 234280.00 237000 239000 239000 228000 225000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (CNY HML) 391973.65 390000 350000 340000 350000 370063
Banks Balance Sheet (CNY Billion) 1660.00 1300 1700 1400 1300 1800
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 3201000.00 3190000 3190000 3190000 3270000 3200000
Loans to Private Sector (CNY HML) 29278.00 30000 35000 35000 32000 25000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Loan Growth (%) 11.90 11.9 12.2 12.2 12.5 13
Lending Rate (%) 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35
Reverse Repo Rate (%) 2.20 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
Fixed Asset Investment (%) 7.30 6.3 5.1 4.2 4 3.9

Trade Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Balance of Trade (USD HML) 667.58 210 420 700 850 910
Current Account (USD HML) 528.00 340 -250 600 600 400
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) 1.90 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Imports (USD HML) 2389.80 2700 2580 2340 2250 2200
Exports (USD HML) 3057.37 2910 3000 3040 3100 3110
External Debt (USD HML) 24007.90 25000 24500 24500 24500 24500
Terms of Trade (points) 92.05 94.8 98.18 102 107 106
Foreign Direct Investment (USD HML) 1292.60 510 970 970 1000 1500
Capital Flows (USD HML) -528.00 -150 240 230 400 250
Tourist Arrivals (Tens of Thousands ) 3188.00 2500 3100 3100 3100 3100
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 4056.00 4290 3920 3960 3890 3810
Tourism Revenues (CNY Trillion) 6.63 2 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5

Government Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 66.80 69 72 72 72 70
Government Budget (% of GDP) -3.70 -3.2 -3 -3 -3 -3
Government Budget Value (CNY Billion) -435.10 -720 -720 -720 -720 -450
Government Spending (CNY HML) 238874.00 28500 29100 29100 29100 29100
Government Revenues (CNY HML) 13932.00 14000 17000 21000 21000 15000
Fiscal Expenditure (CNY HML) 23922.00 39000 25000 29000 29000 40000
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 244934.00 300000 300000 300000 300000 300000

Taxes Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 25.00 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate (%) 13.00 13 13 13 13 13
Social Security Rate (%) 48.00 48 48 48 48 48
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 27.00 37 37 27 27 27
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 11.00 11 11 11 11 11

Business Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Business Confidence (points) 49.60 52 51.8 51.6 51.5 52
Services PMI (points) 53.40 50.2 52 51 50.5 51.5
Non Manufacturing PMI (%) 53.20 51 50.8 51 52 50.9
Manufacturing PMI (points) 50.00 50.3 50.5 50.5 51 51.3
Industrial Production (%) 3.10 5 4.5 4.5 4.1 5.5
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.05 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) 2.40 4.9 5 4.7 4.6 4.9
Changes in Inventories (CNY HML) 6718.00 8000 15000 15000 15000 12000
Total Vehicle Sales (Units) 2067099.00 1950000 2020000 2110000 2001010 2150000
Car Production (Units) 1767000.00 1900000 2200000 2300000 2100000 2500000
Car Registrations 1751000.00 1900000 1500000 1700000 1750000 2400000
Mining Production (%) 3.20 0.8 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.6
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 83200.00 81000 80000 79000 79000 83000
Capacity Utilization (%) 77.10 77 76.8 76.7 76.8 76
Composite PMI (points) 51.40 51.6 51.4 51 51.3 50.6
Cement Production (Ten Thousands of Tonnes) 20503.81 22000 20100 21500 21500 20000
Electricity Production (Gigawatt-hour) 738350.00 722982 722982 740000 740000 764714
Corporate Profits (CNY Million) 5605140.00 5950000 5600000 5600000 6500000 7150000

Consumer Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Consumer Confidence (points) 117.50 120 118 119 117 120
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.30 0.3 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) 4.40 2.1 0.9 1.4 2 4
Consumer Spending (CNY HML) 387176.10 408858 408858 410407 408471 432981
Disposable Personal Income (CNY) 43834.00 46289 46289 46464 46245 49020
Bank Lending Rate (%) 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 61.30 64 67 70 70 74
Consumer Credit (CNY HML) 528516.16 515906 530896 547096 557585 546345
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.90 0.86 0.81 0.77 0.73 0.7

Housing Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Housing Index (%) 3.80 4 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.3
New Home Sales (CNY HML) 121957.00 110500 100500 100500 103700 125500


This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.