Exports from China dropped 3.2 percent year-on-year in September 2019 to USD 218.12 billion, after a 1 percent fall in August and compared to market estimates of 3 percent decline. This was the steepest yearly fall in overseas sales since February, amid weakening global demand and ongoing trade dispute with the US. Meanwhile, following a recent first phase of a trade deal, US President Donald Trump suspended a threatened tariff hike set for October 15th. Sales went down for unwrought aluminium and products (-14.2 percent); coke & semi-coke (-25.8 percent); steel products (-10.4 percent); crude oil (-70.5 percent), rare earth (-27.9 percent) and rice (-46.9 percent). Conversely, sales of coal jumped (34.5 percent). Among major trade partners, exports fell to the US (-17.8 percent); but rose to Japan (11 percent), South Korea (4.4 percent), Taiwan (29.5 percent), the EU (1.3 percent) and the ASEAN countries (11.5 percent). Exports in China averaged 643.11 USD HML from 1981 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2315.23 USD HML in December of 2017 and a record low of 12.50 USD HML in February of 1983.
Exports in China is expected to be 2150.00 USD HML by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Exports in China to stand at 2250.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Exports is projected to trend around 2210.00 USD HML in 2020, according to our econometric models.