Exports from China unexpectedly declined by 2.7 percent year-on-year to USD 193.49 billion in April 2019, swinging from a 14.2 percent jump in March and missing market estimates of a 2.3 percent growth. The latest reading on overseas sales reflected weakening global demand as well as renewed trade dispute with the US, at which higher tariffs on USD 200 billion worth of Chinese goods will soon take effect. Sales of steel products fell 2.3 percent to 6.33 million tonnes and were unchanged from the previous month. Also, exports of coal declined 2.0 percent to 0.50 million tonnes, and dropped 12.3 percent from March's 0.57 million tonnes. Sales declined to the US (-13.2 percent), Japan (-16.4 percent), South Korea (-7.7 percent), and Australia (-13.8 percent), while went up to Taiwan (4.6 percent), the EU (6.2 percent), and the ASEAN countries (0.4 percent). Exports in China averaged 629.95 USD HML from 1981 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2315.23 USD HML in December of 2017 and a record low of 12.50 USD HML in February of 1983.
Exports in China is expected to be 1840.00 USD HML by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Exports in China to stand at 1750.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Exports is projected to trend around 2210.00 USD HML in 2020, according to our econometric models.