Brazil's nominal budget deficit decreased markedly to BRL 6.1 billion in October of 2018 from BRL 30.5 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year and well below market expectations of a BRL 61.8 billion gap. Also, the primary budget surplus widened to BRL 7.8 billion from BRL 4.8 billion a year ago, as central government posted a budget surplus of BRL 10.2 billion from a BRL 5.0 billion in October 2017 and state-owned companies registered a budget surplus of BRL 0.69 billion compared to a BRL 0.56 billion deficit a year ago. In contrast, regional governments posted a BRL 3.1 billion gap compared to a BRL 0.4 billion surplus in October 2017. In the January to October period of 2018, the nominal budget shortfall narrowed to BRL 368.8 billion, or 6.49 percent of GDP, from BRL 415.7 billion, or 7.69 percent of GDP, in the same period of 2017. Government Budget Value in Brazil averaged -15198.82 BRL Million from 1998 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 18626.11 BRL Million in January of 2018 and a record low of -123821.44 BRL Million in December of 2015.
Government Budget Value in Brazil is expected to be -55000.00 BRL Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Government Budget Value in Brazil to stand at -54000.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil Government Budget Value is projected to trend around -55000.00 BRL Million in 2020, according to our econometric models.