The IBC-Br index of economic activity in Brazil fell 0.09 percent month-over-month in September of 2018, following an upwardly revised 0.53 percent rise in August and compared to market expectations of a 0.5 percent decline. The reading pointed to the first contraction in economic activity in four months. Year-on-year, the Brazilian economy advanced a non-seasonally adjusted 0.72 percent, below 2.3 percent in August. Leading Economic Index in Brazil averaged 0.18 percent from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 3.42 percent in June of 2018 and a record low of -3.39 percent in May of 2018.
Leading Economic Index in Brazil is expected to be 0.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Brazil to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil IBC-Br Economic Activity Index is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.