Brazil | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

The Brazilian economy is expected to emerge from a 2-year recession in 2017, as private investment and production continue to improve while consumption will likely remain subdued amid high unemployment. The inflation is forecasted to slow further and reach 4.1 percent by the year-end while the central bank will likely cut rates by an additional 275 bps to 8.5 percent by the end of the year. Government spending is expected to contract after a cap on fiscal expenditure was approved and as additional reforms, including cuts in pensions and social benefits are being implemented. The economic recovery is heavily dependent on the government ability to pass such reforms, reduce fiscal imbalances and restore consumer and business confidence. This page has economic forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.90 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 13.70 13.7 14 14.1 13.8 10.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.08 4 3.9 4.1 4.2 4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 11.25 10.25 9.75 8.5 8.5 8 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 6969.00 3900 4500 4800 5000 3000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 69.49 70 70 70 72 75 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 3.26 3.15 3.18 3.28 3.24 3.74 [+]
Stock Market 64085.41 64300 63700 61700 62400 52000 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 10.91 10.16 10.26 10.36 10.46 12.07 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.90 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -2.50 -1.7 -0.2 0.5 0.6 1.9 percent [+]
GDP 1803.65 1580 1580 1580 1620 2010 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 285112.89 280000 287000 285600 287900 299000 BRL Million [+]
Gross National Product 1589356.15 1640000 1680000 1750000 1800000 2000000 BRL Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 254786.37 262000 263000 266000 268000 306000 BRL Million [+]
GDP per capita 11211.89 10050 10050 10050 11200 11730 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 14532.98 14500 14500 14500 16000 18800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 12045.26 16742 16838 16826 16827 18500 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Construction 16175.80 15947 16125 15816 15632 18200 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 27844.17 28051 29655 27729 26335 33500 [+]
GDP From Mining 2540.72 2470 2568 2534 2438 2860 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 39273.35 39581 39627 39204 39084 40400 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Services 175996.33 170370 172197 172753 166409 209000 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Transport 7719.30 7576 7812 7589 7324 9140 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 6342.14 6348 6299 6340 6316 6240 BRL Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.70 13.7 14 14.1 13.8 10.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 88.95 90 90 91 91.2 92 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 14.18 13.15 13.25 13.5 12.9 9 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.60 61.8 61.8 61.8 61.9 62.8 percent [+]
Labour Costs 136.18 135 130 120 122 139 Index Points [+]
Wages 2110.00 2020 2037 2050 2058 2500 BRL/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 937.00 937 937 937 1090 1280 BRL/Month [+]
Population 206.08 207 207 207 208 212 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4100.00 4200 4250 4250 4290 4600 BRL/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 2038.00 2030 2054 2060 2075 2560 BRL/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1200.00 1230 1250 1250 1280 1350 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2187.00 2255 2258 2259 2259 2259 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1608.90 1670 1675 1676 1677 1677 BRL/Month [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 59.86 -40 -10 -9 -5 20 Thousand [+]
Productivity 136.18 132 135 138 135 162 Index Points [+]
Employment Change -3.60 1 1.5 1.8 -3.49 1 percent [+]
Employment Rate 53.10 54.2 54.3 54.4 54.5 56 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.08 4 3.9 4.1 4.2 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.14 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.39 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 4828.44 4840 4870 4920 4970 5360 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.99 5.3 5.1 5 5.2 5.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 8.30 7.53 7.85 8.17 8.08 8.19 percent [+]
Producer Prices 693.69 720 730 740 750 1050 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 131.68 133 133 133 133 125 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 113.74 111 112 113 115 145 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.51 4.9 4.8 4.7 5 6 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.14 6.7 5.9 5.7 5.8 4.8 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 7934.70 7909 7915 7899 7888 7840 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 4523.61 4517 4511 4509 4509 5900 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 11.25 10.25 9.75 8.5 8.5 8 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 263654.53 255885 258106 258605 258714 258729 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M1 309897.99 311962 312729 312679 312704 312712 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2342597.56 2348601 2354879 2371856 2369589 2387573 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M3 5423627.99 5506121 5622852 5743364 5864222 7174013 BRL Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 374945.00 378681 382587 384709 385802 549000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5835949.35 6100000 6300000 6500000 6700000 8500000 BRL Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 775267.00 766543 754147 742293 731148 645014 BRL Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 12.40 9.7 9 8.5 8.5 8 percent [+]
Loan Growth -0.20 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3045141681.00 3115162199 3186752471 3256885844 3326429757 4047897084 BRL Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 6969.00 3900 4500 4800 5000 3000 USD Million [+]
Exports 17686.00 16900 18000 18500 19100 25000 USD Million [+]
Imports 10717.00 13000 13500 13700 14100 22000 USD Million [+]
Current Account 1152.80 -1900 -1000 1100 1200 -500 USD Million [+]
External Debt 678952.08 648061 671377 654835 657169 434000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.30 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.6 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 115.77 104 94 91 115 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 1757.00 1276 1496 1290 1492 1030 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 5577.40 7305 7404 7404 7404 7000 USD Million [+]
Remittances 193.40 195 194 195 195 195 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 67.29 67.32 67.32 67.33 67.34 67.34 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2730.00 2696 2695 2695 2695 2695 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 1.74 2.21 1.19 1.01 0.91 1.52 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 5813.00 5819 5824 5828 5828 5807 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 109.00 64.03 65.46 66.9 68.5 87.83 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 69.49 70 70 70 72 75 percent [+]
Government Budget -8.90 -8.5 -8.5 -8.5 -9 -7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -15422.53 -48636 -44162 -44287 -45056 -110000 BRL Million [+]
Government Spending 95500.22 106389 104210 104210 104272 104263 BRL Million [+]
Government Revenues 118046.54 110188 110605 109683 110850 111008 BRL Million [+]
Military Expenditure 31953.60 32146 31957 31768 31734 31900 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 4547705.05 4611647 4718861 4819306 4917126 5820914 BRL Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 53.70 56.4 56.3 55.6 56 51 [+]
Services PMI 50.30 48 49 50 50.2 52.7 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.10 50 50.1 50.3 50.4 52.8 [+]
Composite Pmi 50.40 49 50 50.3 50.5 53.6 Index [+]
Industrial Production 1.10 1 1.5 0.1 0.7 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.80 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.30 0.2 0.6 1 1.1 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.10 77.3 77.5 78 78 79 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -36262.39 1110 3600 1500 1900 21000 BRL Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 131516.00 122000 133635 134394 134923 176000 [+]
Car Production 191069.00 185000 184000 186000 191000 190000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 157.00 171 167 166 166 165 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.44 0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.06 0.2 percent [+]
Small Business Sentiment 49.90 30.8 49.14 37 49.2 43 [+]
Steel Production 2895.00 2909 2848 2842 2852 2851 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 7.00 -1 -0.5 -1.1 3.65 1.5 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.13 4.18 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 81.00 81 81 81 79 71 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 123.00 116 116 115 115 112 [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 38 39 40 42 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 76 76 75 74 72 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 103.40 104 104 104 104 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.90 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -4.00 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 2.1 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1042210.39 1070000 1090000 1110000 1130000 1300000 BRL Million [+]
Consumer Credit 1577269.00 1596116 1624214 1652066 1679664 1967049 BRL Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 2840595.00 2836898 2829840 3120000 2816715 3690000 BRL Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 68.05 67.49 66.18 65.44 65.01 55.43 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.14 1.18 1.15 1.09 1.08 1.08 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Home Ownership Rate 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 percent [+]
Housing Index 130.22 130 130 130 130 129 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 27.50 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.80 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.80 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]