Brazil - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 12.00 11.8 11.4 11.2 10.9 9.8 percent
Inflation Rate 2.95 3 3.1 3.3 3.4 5 percent
Interest Rate 7.00 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 percent
Balance of Trade 4997.77 5000 4500 4000 4000 3000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 69.49 72 72 65.95 72 75 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 3.23
3.31 3.43 3.55 3.67 4.21
Stock Market 79831.76
points
76132 72545 69133 65874 44781
Government Bond 10Y 9.92
percent
10.1 10.2 10.3 11.72 11.39
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10
percent
0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.40
percent
1.9 2.5 3.1 3.3 2.9
GDP 1796.19
USD Billion
1970 1970 1970 1970 2350
GDP Constant Prices 295644.96
BRL Million
280900 287000 294011 290000 299000
Gross National Product 1609208.89
BRL Million
1800000 1850000 1622940 1910000 2000000
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 263924.50
BRL Million
268000 271000 270465 275000 306000
GDP per capita 10826.30
USD
11200 11200 10903 11200 11730
GDP per capita PPP 14023.70
USD
16000 16000 13645 16000 18800
GDP From Agriculture 18334.73
BRL Million
24500 22342 18743 13743 15500
GDP From Construction 15514.00
BRL Million
16663 16843 17251 17759 19200
GDP From Manufacturing 31490.74
BRL Million
27268 28563 30700 29670 33500
GDP From Mining 2644.23
BRL Million
2250 2370 2560 2640 2860
GDP From Public Administration 39977.20
BRL Million
39719 39822 39777 39730 37500
GDP From Services 177647.94
BRL Million
170000 173000 174000 175000 175000
GDP From Transport 8427.19
BRL Million
7875 7986 8237 8177 9140
GDP From Utilities 6435.41
BRL Million
6520 6650 6360 6450 6660
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 12.00
percent
11.8 11.4 11.2 10.9 9.8
Employed Persons 91.95
Million
91.2 91.1 91.57 91 92
Unemployed Persons 12.57
Million
12.9 12.9 12.05 12 9
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.80
percent
61.9 61.9 61.31 62 62.8
Labour Costs 121.89
Index Points
122 122 123 125 139
Wages 2142.00
BRL/Month
2058 2025 2089 2100 2500
Minimum Wages 937.00
BRL/Month
1090 1090 1090 1090 1280
Population 206.08
Million
208 208 209 209 212
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Living Wage Family 2380.00
BRL/Month
2383 2385 2386 2387 2386
Living Wage Individual 1450.00
BRL/Month
1467 1473 1479 1486 1477
Non Farm Payrolls -12.29
Thousand
25 58 59.77 30 20
Productivity 121.89
Index Points
124 124 123 145 162
Wages High Skilled 4280.00
BRL/Month
4290 4290 4066 4430 4600
Wages In Manufacturing 2113.00
BRL/Month
2075 2078 2059 2140 2560
Wages Low Skilled 1310.00
BRL/Month
1280 1290 1193 1300 1350
Employment Rate 54.40
percent
54.5 54.4 54.53 54.9 56
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.95
percent
3 3.1 3.3 3.4 5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.44
percent
0.53 0.51 0.49 0.4 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 4916.46
Index Points
4900 4960 4998 5000 5360
Core Inflation Rate 3.83
percent
5.2 5.1 5 5.9 5.1
GDP Deflator 8.30
percent
82.76 82.86 82.96 83.06 144
Producer Prices 693.66
Index Points
650 660 712 690 950
Export Prices 126.64
Index Points
126 126 126 126 125
Import Prices 115.37
Index Points
115 115 114 125 145
Food Inflation -1.87
percent
1.1 1.4 1.6 2 6
Producer Prices Change -3.50
percent
1.1 1.5 2 2.3 4.8
CPI Housing Utilities 8391.88
Index Points
8470 8505 8525 8534 8494
CPI Transportation 4705.06
Index Points
4786 4821 4834 4730 5200
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 7.00
percent
6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
Cash Reserve Ratio 45.00
percent
45 45 47.02 45 45
Money Supply M0 296755.46
BRL Million
286448 284295 283757 283494 281811
Money Supply M1 363025.90
BRL Million
351857 350681 350308 349990 347480
Money Supply M2 2442263.27
BRL Million
2460273 2466874 2470032 2471010 2456572
Money Supply M3 5742712.44
BRL Million
5838421 5892123 5937335 5974864 6088436
Foreign Exchange Reserves 373972.00
USD Million
367536 363889 361755 360344 549000
Banks Balance Sheet 5859154.84
BRL Million
5700000 5650000 5861964 6000000 6100000
Loans to Private Sector 717988.00
BRL Million
697908 687330 679178 672749 645290
Deposit Interest Rate 12.40
percent
8.5 8.5 294 8 8
Loan Growth 0.40
percent
0.2 0.4 0.82 1 1.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3164861703.00
BRL Thousand
3174094908 3173390110 3171569530 3169567217 3153325615
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 4997.77
USD Million
5000 4500 4000 4000 3000
Exports 17595.29
USD Million
19100 18700 16298 23100 25000
Imports 12597.51
USD Million
14100 14200 12229 15000 22000
Current Account -2388.00
USD Million
-1200 -1500 -19000 -18000 -500
Current Account to GDP -1.30
percent
-1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7
External Debt 683699.11
USD Million
674076 678301 676115 671621 734000
Terms of Trade 109.77
Index Points
109 109 108 93 100
Capital Flows -1804.80
USD Million
-1081 -1295 -1482 -1644 1030
Foreign Direct Investment 5020.00
USD Million
5427 5199 4926 4703 7000
Remittances 193.50
USD Million
193 191 189 187 180
Gold Reserves 67.29
Tonnes
66.41 65.17 64.04 62.93 56.79
Crude Oil Production 2550.00
BBL/D/1K
2585 2582 2579 2577 2554
Terrorism Index 1.57
1.07 1.01 0.95 0.9 1.3
Tourist Arrivals 6578.00
Thousand
0 0 0 0 0
Weapons Sales 109.00
USD Million
55.54 63.93 72.31 80.7 83.09
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 69.49
percent
72 72 65.95 72 75
Government Budget -8.90
percent of GDP
-9 -9 -6.79 -9 -7
Government Budget Value -30038.00
BRL Million
-33412 -29078 -26210 -24087 -110000
Government Spending 105371.40
BRL Million
102919 101556 100490 99440 91654
Government Revenues 115088.68
BRL Million
110631 110596 110108 109343 101335
Military Expenditure 22839.30
USD Million
23585 23085 22585 22085 21909
Government Debt 4852557.49
BRL Million
4922529 4949356 4962055 4964793 4851100
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 58.30
Index Points
59 60 61 65 61
Services PMI 47.40
Index Points
51.8 51.3 51 51.5 52.7
Manufacturing PMI 52.40
51.2 51.9 52 52.8 52.8
Composite Pmi 48.80
Index
50.5 50.1 48.84 51.4 53.6
Industrial Production 4.70
percent
2.8 4.1 2.6 2.5 2.1
Industrial Production Mom 0.20
percent
0.5 0.6 0.14 0.4 1.1
Manufacturing Production 2.60
percent
1.1 2.5 1.53 0.4 1.8
Capacity Utilization 77.70
percent
78 78 78.71 79 79
Changes in Inventories 1437.43
BRL Million
19000 28000 6865 30000 21000
Total Vehicle Sales 171988.00
168084 166085 164442 162895 176000
Car Production 213707.00
Units
191000 191000 232163 190000 190000
Car Registrations 213.00
Thousand
200 197 195 193 180
Leading Economic Index 0.49
percent
-0.1 0.1 0.18 0.2 0.2
Small Business Sentiment 55.50
50.2 50.3 56.13 51 51
Internet Speed 6819.06
KBps
9002 9593 9947 10325 12169
IP Addresses 26855780.00
IP
25338992 24954191 24585854 24238713 22074778
Mining Production 2.20
percent
2.98 3.15 3.23 0.2 1.5
Steel Production 3030.00
Thousand Tonnes
2971 2923 2878 2836 2580
Competitiveness Index 4.14
Points
4.13 4.13 4.06 4.13 4.18
Competitiveness Rank 80.00
79 79 79 79 77
Ease of Doing Business 125.00
115 115 125 114 112
Corruption Index 40.00
Points
42 42 37 42 45
Corruption Rank 79.00
74 74 78 74 72
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 100.50
Index Points
102 102 101 102 103
Retail Sales MoM 0.70
percent
0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 1
Retail Sales YoY 5.90
percent
2.6 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.1
Consumer Spending 1048827.44
BRL Million
1130000 1140000 1053816 1170000 1300000
Consumer Credit 1640317.00
BRL Million
1633204 1632428 1631212 1629789 1617122
Private Sector Credit 2841767.00
BRL Million
2861583 2872580 2880529 3300000 3690000
Bank Lending Rate 58.12
percent
58.18 58.77 59.42 65.94 55.43
Gasoline Prices 1.24
USD/Liter
1.24 1.24 1.19 1.18 1.07
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 129.40
Index Points
129 129 128 128 118
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00
percent
34 34 34 34 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 27.50
percent
27.5 27.5 28 28 28
Sales Tax Rate 17.00
percent
17 17 17 17 17
Social Security Rate 39.80
percent
39.8 39.8 40 40 40
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.80
percent
28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11