Brazil | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

The Brazilian economy is expected to emerge from a 2-year recession in 2017, as private investment and production continue to improve while consumption will likely remain subdued amid high unemployment. The inflation is forecasted to slow further and reach 4.1 percent by the year-end while the central bank will likely cut rates by an additional 275 bps to 8.5 percent by the end of the year. Government spending is expected to contract after a cap on fiscal expenditure was approved and as additional reforms, including cuts in pensions and social benefits are being implemented. The economic recovery is heavily dependent on the government ability to pass such reforms, reduce fiscal imbalances and restore consumer and business confidence. This page has economic forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 13.00 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.6 10.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.71 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 9.25 8.25 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 6298.00 5500 4800 5000 4500 3000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 69.49 70 70 72 72 75 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 3.15 3.33 3.37 3.4 3.43 3.8 [+]
Stock Market 68714.66 62700 62100 61400 60800 53800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 10.13 10.58 10.69 10.79 10.9 12.05 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -0.40 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.9 percent [+]
GDP 1796.19 1820 1820 1970 1970 2400 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 283460.35 287000 285600 280900 287000 299000 BRL Million [+]
Gross National Product 1560168.58 1680000 1750000 1800000 1850000 2000000 BRL Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 248569.48 263000 266000 268000 271000 306000 BRL Million [+]
GDP per capita 10826.30 10050 10050 11200 11200 11730 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 14023.70 14500 14500 16000 16000 18800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 23855.60 17698 13000 24500 17741 15500 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Construction 15825.31 16144 16836 16663 16843 19200 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 26298.50 29672 27741 26370 28022 33500 [+]
GDP From Mining 2438.91 2490 2480 2250 2370 2860 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 38657.59 39374 38893 38518 38888 37500 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Services 169630.32 180000 180000 170000 173000 175000 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Transport 7574.90 7983 7727 7642 7897 9140 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 6445.94 6240 6390 6520 6650 6660 BRL Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.00 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.6 10.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 90.24 90 91 91.2 91.1 92 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 13.49 13.25 13.5 12.9 12.9 9 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.70 61.8 61.8 61.9 61.9 62.8 percent [+]
Labour Costs 121.68 130 120 122 122 139 Index Points [+]
Wages 2104.00 2037 2050 2058 2025 2500 BRL/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 937.00 937 937 1090 1090 1280 BRL/Month [+]
Population 206.08 207 207 208 208 212 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4100.00 4250 4250 4290 4290 4600 BRL/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 2071.00 2054 2060 2075 2075 2560 BRL/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1200.00 1250 1250 1280 1290 1350 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2187.00 2258 2259 2259 2259 2259 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1608.90 1675 1676 1677 1677 1677 BRL/Month [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 9.82 -10 19 25 58 20 Thousand [+]
Productivity 121.68 135 138 125 125 162 Index Points [+]
Employment Change -3.60 1.5 1.8 -3.5 3 1 percent [+]
Employment Rate 53.70 54.3 54.4 54.5 54.4 56 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.71 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.24 0.2 0.3 0.39 0.4 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 4843.87 4847 4852 4900 4960 5360 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.22 5.1 5 5.2 5.1 5.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 8.30 7.85 8.17 8.08 8 8.19 percent [+]
Producer Prices 671.01 660 640 650 660 950 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 123.71 121 120 121 121 125 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 114.91 112 113 115 115 145 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -0.66 2.3 2.4 3 3.24 6 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.80 -1.2 0.7 1.1 1.5 4.8 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 8173.99 8234 8307 8403 8473 8837 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 4496.43 4507 4518 4521 4522 5200 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 9.25 8.25 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 255860.26 256760 255143 254810 254758 254751 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M1 314687.69 314246 313601 313590 313595 313591 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2393014.91 2436163 2483038 2507043 2536631 2610051 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M3 5497325.88 5610095 5727488 5845623 5963697 7127443 BRL Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 381029.00 384287 387559 389320 390244 549000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5715530.53 5800000 5800000 5700000 5650000 6100000 BRL Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 769432.00 758950 748680 738988 729882 664309 BRL Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 12.40 9 8.5 8.5 8.5 8 percent [+]
Loan Growth 0.40 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.4 1.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3017308939.00 3083218724 3120045113 3155220049 3188509986 3435169040 BRL Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 6298.00 5500 4800 5000 4500 3000 USD Million [+]
Exports 18769.00 19000 18500 19100 18700 25000 USD Million [+]
Imports 12471.00 13500 13700 14100 14200 22000 USD Million [+]
Current Account 1330.40 1200 1100 1200 1500 -500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.30 -1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.7 percent [+]
External Debt 666944.32 683573 671428 675098 677432 734000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 107.66 94 91 109 109 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 1281.80 1989 1782 2062 1827 1030 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 3991.40 5917 6110 6136 6140 7000 USD Million [+]
Remittances 202.30 185 190 193 195 194 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 67.29 67.27 67.28 67.27 67.27 67.27 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2550.00 2598 2600 2600 2600 2600 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 1.74 1.19 1.01 0.91 0.81 1.52 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6578.00 6586 6692 6724 6755 6864 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 109.00 65.46 66.9 68.5 70.11 87.83 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 69.49 70 70 72 72 75 percent [+]
Government Budget -8.90 -8.5 -8.5 -9 -9 -7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -51060.00 -42465 -43268 -44264 -45069 -110000 BRL Million [+]
Government Spending 106481.83 104334 104534 104600 104594 104601 BRL Million [+]
Government Revenues 104100.00 108020 107248 108346 108768 109391 BRL Million [+]
Military Expenditure 22839.30 22841 22347 22394 22440 23071 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 4674598.72 4801903 4930069 5055487 5178484 6284956 BRL Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 52.60 51.7 52.5 53 53.1 51 [+]
Services PMI 48.80 52 52 51.8 51.3 52.7 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.00 52.1 52.7 52.4 52.1 52.8 [+]
Composite Pmi 49.40 51 50.9 50.5 50.1 53.6 Index [+]
Industrial Production 0.50 1.5 0.1 0.7 1.1 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.00 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.10 0.6 1 1.1 2.5 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.00 77.5 78 78 78 79 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 22385.89 36000 15000 19000 28000 21000 BRL Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 151703.00 152866 155003 156267 156259 176000 [+]
Car Production 224763.00 184000 186000 191000 191000 190000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 185.00 183 181 182 182 182 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.50 0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Small Business Sentiment 50.00 48.9 49 50.2 50.3 51 [+]
Steel Production 2649.00 2669 2696 2691 2688 2689 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 4.50 -0.5 -1.1 3.57 3.46 1.5 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.13 4.13 4.18 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 81.00 81 81 79 79 77 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 123.00 116 115 115 115 112 [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 39 40 42 42 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 76 75 74 74 72 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 99.50 101 101 102 102 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.20 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.00 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 2.1 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1003617.65 1090000 1110000 1130000 1140000 1300000 BRL Million [+]
Consumer Credit 1595396.00 1623456 1651277 1678844 1706159 1965955 BRL Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 2850441.00 2851819 3120000 2852963 2853395 3690000 BRL Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 63.30 60.82 59.27 58.39 57.9 55.43 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.20 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.04 1 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Home Ownership Rate 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 percent [+]
Housing Index 129.80 129 129 128 128 125 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 27.50 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.80 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.80 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]