Markets Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Currency 5.34 5.46 5.52 5.57 5.63 5.75
Stock Market (points) 86732.58 84306 81741 79254 76846 72029
Government Bond 10Y (%) 7.09 7.12 7.22 7.31 7.41 7.61

Overview Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -1.50 -4 -1.5 -1.2 0.7 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -0.30 -6 -5 -6 0.6 3.5
Unemployment Rate (%) 12.60 13.7 13.5 13.3 13 12.3
Inflation Rate (%) 2.40 1.9 1.9 1.7 2 3.3
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.31 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 3.00 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.75 3.5
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 25
Balance of Trade (USD Million) 6701.81 5600 4100 1500 2500 2200
Current Account (USD Million) 3839.60 -4500 -3900 -5900 -3500 -2800
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.70 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.3 -3.3
Government Debt to GDP (%) 75.79 86 86 86 88 85
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.90 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5 -9 -9
Business Confidence (points) 34.70 31 38 45 57 62
Manufacturing PMI (points) 36.00 30 43 47 50 52
Services PMI (points) 27.40 30 40 45 47 50.8
Consumer Confidence (points) 47.30 36 40 46 47 50
Retail Sales MoM (%) -2.50 -2 0.3 0.7 0.5 1
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 34.00 34 34 34 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 27.50 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5

GDP Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -1.50 -4 -1.5 -1.2 0.7 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -0.30 -6 -5 -6 0.6 3.5
GDP (USD Billion) 2020.00 2150 2150 2150 2250 2250
GDP Constant Prices (BRL Million) 291912.45 288816 297522 283982 303921 293922
Gross National Product (BRL Million) 1758716.18 1706082 1745779 1730167 1851646 1790723
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (BRL Million) 285059.50 266981 292080 263741 282259 272972
GDP per capita (USD) 11026.24 10910 11730 11730 11900 11900
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 14282.70 14133 16500 16500 14133 15028
GDP From Agriculture (BRL Million) 25137.07 22219 19182 12929 13837 13381
GDP From Construction (BRL Million) 12825.35 13051 13925 12923 13831 13376
GDP From Manufacturing (BRL Million) 27686.97 29173 31459 28451 30449 29447
GDP From Mining (BRL Million) 2483.50 2288 2756 2678 2866 2771
GDP From Public Administration (BRL Million) 39465.21 38999 38929 37477 40108 38788
GDP From Services (BRL Million) 175788.56 174417 179048 174864 187141 180984
GDP From Transport (BRL Million) 7978.92 8010 8501 8143 8715 8428
GDP From Utilities (BRL Million) 6916.01 6601 6388 6369 6816 6591

Labour Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 12.60 13.7 13.5 13.3 13 12.3
Employed Persons (Million ) 89.24 93.2 93.5 92 92 92.5
Unemployed Persons (Million ) 12.81 12 12.1 12 12 12
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 59.00 62.1 62.1 62.5 62.5 62.5
Labour Costs (points) 122.65 100 100 115 115 115
Wages (BRL/Month) 2398.00 2360 2440 2470 2370 2550
Minimum Wages (BRL/Month) 1045.00 1045 1045 1045 1120 1120
Population (Million) 210.15 211 211 212 212 214
Retirement Age Women 62.00 60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65
Living Wage Family (BRL/Month) 2360.00 2450 2450 2550 2550 2450
Living Wage Individual (BRL/Month) 1390.00 1500 1500 1550 1550 1550
Productivity (points) 122.65 113 114 115 115 117
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand ) -860.50 50 75 -310 40 80
Wages High Skilled (BRL/Month) 4730.00 4600 4600 4600 4600 4600
Wages In Manufacturing (BRL/Month) 2407.00 2410 2420 2440 2410 2500
Employment Rate (%) 51.60 54.6 54.7 54.8 54.8 55.1

Prices Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 2.40 1.9 1.9 1.7 2 3.3
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.31 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 5331.91 5313 5327 5411 5455 5589
Core Inflation Rate (%) 2.52 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.7 3.4
Producer Prices (points) 845.85 852 847 882 900 944
Export Prices (points) 122.36 135 133 135 135 135
Import Prices (points) 111.14 124 120 124 124 122
Food Inflation (%) 4.87 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.6 3.8
Producer Prices Change (%) 7.70 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 7
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 9125.92 9150 9372 9286 9318 9592
CPI Transportation (points) 4903.34 5087 5040 5146 5138 5316

Money Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Interest Rate (%) 3.00 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.75 3.5
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 25
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 339317.00 380000 383500 384000 384000 387000
Banks Balance Sheet (BRL Million) 6877781.57 6850000 6900000 6930000 6930000 6980000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 2.55 2.78 2.78 2.78 3.28 3.78
Loan Growth (%) 0.00 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet (BRL Thousand) 3855260010.00 3850000000 3850000000 3850000000 3850000000 4129251291

Trade Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Balance of Trade (USD Million) 6701.81 5600 4100 1500 2500 2200
Current Account (USD Million) 3839.60 -4500 -3900 -5900 -3500 -2800
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.70 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.3 -3.3
Imports (USD Million) 11611.00 13000 14900 14500 15500 15800
Exports (USD Million) 18312.00 18600 19000 16000 18000 18000
External Debt (USD Million) 633825.30 697000 685000 734000 734000 734000
Terms of Trade (points) 110.10 109 111 109 109 111
Capital Flows (USD Million) 4119.20 -700 -420 -1030 -1030 -750
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 234.25 500 5100 6000 6000 5500
Remittances (USD Million) 204.90 275 280 285 285 270
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 67.40 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.6
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 3168.00 3000 3200 3200 3200 3500
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 6621.00 6850 6850 6850 6900 6900
Weapons Sales (USD Million) 111.00 70 70 70 70 70

Government Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 75.79 86 86 86 88 85
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.90 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5 -9 -9
Government Budget Value (BRL Million) -115800.00 -60000 -50000 -90000 -65000 -75000
Government Spending (BRL Million) 175075.73 101144 120362 194514 113563 201322
Government Revenues (BRL Million) 101150.00 90000 100000 140000 146000 148000
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 30769.00 27500 27500 27500 27500 28100
Government Debt (BRL Million) 5758363.33 5800000 5880000 5880000 5880000 5995350

Taxes Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 34.00 34 34 34 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 27.50 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5
Sales Tax Rate (%) 17.00 17 17 17 17 17
Social Security Rate (%) 39.80 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 28.80 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 11.00 11 11 11 11 11

Business Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Business Confidence (points) 34.70 31 38 45 57 62
Manufacturing PMI (points) 36.00 30 43 47 50 52
Services PMI (points) 27.40 30 40 45 47 50.8
Composite Pmi (points) 26.50 27 42 48 50 52
Industrial Production (%) -3.80 -5 -0.5 1.5 1.8 2.2
Industrial Production Mom (%) -9.10 -5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1
Manufacturing Production (%) -4.20 -7 -0.5 0.7 1.5 2.5
Capacity Utilization (%) 78.70 78 78.5 79 79 80
Total Vehicle Sales 39498.00 178000 186000 190000 190000 196000
Car Production (Units) 1847.00 100000 150000 170000 190000 250000
Car Registrations (Thousand) 56.00 230 235 240 240 250
Leading Economic Index (%) -5.90 -1.5 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.8
Mining Production (%) -0.50 -3 -5 -1.5 0.5 1.5

Consumer Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) 47.30 36 40 46 47 50
Retail Sales MoM (%) -2.50 -2 0.3 0.7 0.5 1
Retail Sales YoY (%) -1.20 -2.7 -1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9
Consumer Spending (BRL Million) 1162204.32 1118538 1158713 1164779 1246562 1205547
Consumer Credit (BRL Million) 2051284.00 1817660 1882507 1882355 2063592 1948237
Private Sector Credit (BRL Million) 3374864.00 3260000 3290000 3310000 3310000 3420000
Bank Lending Rate (%) 46.12 46.12 46.12 46.12 46.62 47.12
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.72 0.82 0.78 0.74 0.7 0.67

Housing Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Housing Index (points) 129.80 130 129 130 129 130


This page has economic forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy.