Brazil | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

The Brazilian economy is expected to emerge from a 2-year recession in 2017, as private investment and production continue to improve while consumption will likely remain subdued amid high unemployment. The inflation is forecasted to slow further and reach 4.1 percent by the year-end while the central bank will likely cut rates by an additional 275 bps to 8.5 percent by the end of the year. Government spending is expected to contract after a cap on fiscal expenditure was approved and as additional reforms, including cuts in pensions and social benefits are being implemented. The economic recovery is heavily dependent on the government ability to pass such reforms, reduce fiscal imbalances and restore consumer and business confidence. This page has economic forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 12.80 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.6 10.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.46 2.7 3 3.5 3.9 5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 8.25 8.25 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 5599.00 5500 4800 5000 4500 3000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 69.49 70 70 72 72 75 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 3.13 3.14 3.11 3.07 3.04 2.69 [+]
Stock Market 75389.75 62700 62100 61400 60800 53800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 9.65 10.58 10.69 10.79 10.9 12.05 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.30 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.9 percent [+]
GDP 1796.19 1820 1820 1970 1970 2400 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 288139.83 287000 285600 280900 287000 299000 BRL Million [+]
Gross National Product 1616034.08 1680000 1750000 1800000 1850000 2000000 BRL Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 253869.44 263000 266000 268000 271000 306000 BRL Million [+]
GDP per capita 10826.30 10050 10050 11200 11200 11730 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 14023.70 14500 14500 16000 16000 18800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 22012.33 17698 13000 24500 18545 15500 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Construction 15458.89 15559 16836 16663 16843 19200 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 28065.11 29664 27736 26365 28009 33500 [+]
GDP From Mining 2514.54 2490 2480 2250 2370 2860 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 39294.72 39410 38921 38551 38949 37500 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Services 173377.31 180000 180000 170000 173000 175000 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Transport 7809.32 7878 7676 7607 7800 9140 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 6303.01 6240 6390 6520 6650 6660 BRL Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 12.80 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.6 10.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 90.68 90 91 91.2 91.1 92 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 13.33 13.25 13.5 12.9 12.9 9 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.70 61.8 61.8 61.9 61.9 62.8 percent [+]
Labour Costs 135.94 130 120 122 122 139 Index Points [+]
Wages 2106.00 2037 2050 2058 2025 2500 BRL/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 937.00 937 937 1090 1090 1280 BRL/Month [+]
Population 206.08 207 207 208 208 212 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4100.00 4250 4250 4290 4290 4600 BRL/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 2074.00 2054 2060 2075 2078 2560 BRL/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1200.00 1250 1250 1280 1290 1350 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2187.00 2258 2259 2259 2259 2259 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1608.90 1675 1676 1677 1677 1677 BRL/Month [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 35.46 -10 19 25 58 20 Thousand [+]
Productivity 135.94 135 138 135 135 162 Index Points [+]
Employment Change -3.60 1.5 1.8 -3.5 3 1 percent [+]
Employment Rate 53.80 54.3 54.4 54.5 54.4 56 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.46 2.7 3 3.5 3.9 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.19 0.2 0.3 2.71 3.43 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 4853.07 4847 4852 4900 4960 5360 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.91 5.1 5 5.2 5.1 5.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 8.30 7.85 8.17 8.08 8 8.19 percent [+]
Producer Prices 672.76 660 640 650 660 950 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 123.71 121 120 121 121 125 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 114.91 112 113 115 115 145 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -2.01 2.3 2.4 3 3.24 6 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.80 -1.2 0.7 1.1 1.5 4.8 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 8220.58 8286 8410 8487 8533 8538 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 4565.23 4606 4667 4693 4702 5200 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 8.25 8.25 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 252160.31 255263 254275 253949 253726 251686 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M1 309505.43 314246 313601 313590 313595 313591 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2397357.61 2426776 2459590 2470257 2487875 2508202 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M3 5557672.08 5640085 5767837 5893589 6018794 7252489 BRL Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 381843.00 382717 384393 384736 384499 549000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5715530.53 5800000 5800000 5700000 5650000 6100000 BRL Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 764910.00 756954 745909 735534 725781 655336 BRL Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 12.40 9 8.5 8.5 8.5 8 percent [+]
Loan Growth -0.60 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.4 1.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3053913469.00 3101505914 3145204480 3186318896 3225621825 3529183241 BRL Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 5599.00 5500 4800 5000 4500 3000 USD Million [+]
Exports 19475.00 19000 18500 19100 18700 25000 USD Million [+]
Imports 13876.00 13500 13700 14100 14200 22000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -3403.80 1200 1100 1200 1500 -500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.30 -1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.7 percent [+]
External Debt 666944.32 683573 671428 675098 677432 734000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 107.66 94 91 109 109 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -2993.20 215 -136 -466 -379 1030 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 4093.30 5510 5842 5894 5902 7000 USD Million [+]
Remittances 178.80 181 187 190 192 191 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 67.29 67.31 67.31 67.31 67.31 67.31 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2550.00 2598 2600 2600 2600 2600 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 1.74 1.19 1.01 0.91 0.81 1.52 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6578.00 6500 6600 6575 6550 6200 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 109.00 65.46 66.9 68.5 70.11 87.83 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 69.49 70 70 72 72 75 percent [+]
Government Budget -8.90 -8.5 -8.5 -9 -9 -7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -44620.00 -42818 -45252 -46321 -46954 -110000 BRL Million [+]
Government Spending 109282.24 105680 104689 103691 102576 92440 BRL Million [+]
Government Revenues 104206.25 107762 107731 107090 107339 107142 BRL Million [+]
Military Expenditure 22839.30 22841 22347 22394 22440 23071 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 4722126.38 4806612 4936359 5063533 5188294 6312759 BRL Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 55.70 51.7 52.5 53 53.1 51 [+]
Services PMI 49.00 52 52 51.8 51.3 52.7 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.90 52.1 52.7 52.4 52.1 52.8 [+]
Composite Pmi 49.60 51 50.9 50.5 50.1 53.6 Index [+]
Industrial Production 2.50 1.5 0.1 0.7 1.1 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.80 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.10 0.6 1 1.1 2.5 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.40 77.5 78 78 78 79 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -10014.39 36000 15000 19000 28000 21000 BRL Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 151703.00 152866 155003 156267 156259 176000 [+]
Car Production 260349.00 184000 186000 191000 191000 190000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 217.00 205 202 199 196 179 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.41 0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Small Business Sentiment 50.00 48.9 49 50.2 50.3 51 [+]
Steel Production 2832.00 2788 2812 2800 2797 2798 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 4.50 -0.5 -1.1 3.57 3.46 1.5 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.13 4.13 4.18 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 81.00 81 81 79 79 77 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 123.00 116 115 115 115 112 [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 39 40 42 42 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 76 75 74 74 72 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 101.60 101 101 102 102 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.00 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.10 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 2.1 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1023279.04 1090000 1110000 1130000 1140000 1300000 BRL Million [+]
Consumer Credit 1598341.00 1616738 1644143 1671306 1698220 1954116 BRL Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 2835348.00 2832493 3120000 2815692 2808753 3690000 BRL Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 63.77 62.1 60.87 60.16 59.78 55.43 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.20 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.04 1 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Home Ownership Rate 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 percent [+]
Housing Index 129.80 129 129 128 128 125 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 27.50 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.80 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.80 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]