Brazil - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 13.10 12.8 12.6 12.9 13 12.1 percent
Inflation Rate 2.76 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 5 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 8 percent
Balance of Trade 6140.00 7600 5500 4500 9000 3000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 74.04 72 72 72 73 75 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 3.65
3.47 3.59 3.72 3.85 4.41
Stock Market 80122.31
points
80570 76711 73039 69535 57137
Government Bond 10Y 10.85
percent
10.28 10.85 11.45 12.08 14.97
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10
percent
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.10
percent
2.5 2.4 2.3 3.2 2.9
GDP 1796.19
USD Billion
1970 1970 1970 2200 2350
GDP Constant Prices 291838.95
BRL Million
293377 299193 298551 294553 314889
Gross National Product 1670120.83
BRL Million
1628098 1628519 1708534 1600965 1802033
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 268026.06
BRL Million
251879 267092 274191 252732 289196
GDP per capita 10826.30
USD
11200 11200 11200 11300 11730
GDP per capita PPP 14023.70
USD
16000 13645 16000 17000 18800
GDP From Agriculture 13159.91
BRL Million
22682 18555 13463 25781 14199
GDP From Construction 15334.12
BRL Million
15160 15700 15687 15853 16545
GDP From Manufacturing 29938.38
BRL Million
28914 31869 30627 27700 32303
GDP From Mining 2569.13
BRL Million
2560 2676 2628 2554 2772
GDP From Public Administration 39712.57
BRL Million
40282 40457 40626 40387 42849
GDP From Services 179153.55
BRL Million
176066 179780 183274 175105 193304
GDP From Transport 8343.01
BRL Million
8136 8528 8535 7981 9002
GDP From Utilities 6540.83
BRL Million
6584 6513 6691 6879 7057
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.10
percent
12.8 12.6 12.9 13 12.1
Employed Persons 90.58
Million
91.1 90.63 91 90.64 92
Unemployed Persons 13.69
Million
12.9 13.57 12 13.57 9
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.60
percent
61.9 61.58 62 61.61 62.8
Labour Costs 136.28
Index Points
122 122 125 121 139
Wages 2169.00
BRL/Month
2160 2175 2200 2230 2500
Minimum Wages 954.00
BRL/Month
954 954 954 1050 1190
Population 207.66
Million
208 209 209 210 212
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Living Wage Family 2380.00
BRL/Month
2400 2400 2400 2450 2450
Living Wage Individual 1450.00
BRL/Month
1473 1479 1486 1482 1474
Non Farm Payrolls 56.15
Thousand
58 58.21 30 58.15 20
Productivity 136.28
Index Points
127 131 145 130 162
Wages High Skilled 4280.00
BRL/Month
4430 4430 4430 4500 4600
Wages In Manufacturing 2199.00
BRL/Month
2150 2200 2230 2240 2480
Wages Low Skilled 1310.00
BRL/Month
1300 1300 1300 1380 1450
Employment Rate 53.60
percent
54.4 53.56 54.9 54.1 56
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.76
percent
2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.22
percent
0.49 0.5 0.4 0.48 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 4961.84
Index Points
4992 5036 5108 5160 5594
Core Inflation Rate 2.96
percent
5.1 5 5.9 2.56 5.1
GDP Deflator 3.80
percent
3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Producer Prices 713.04
Index Points
686 693 710 722 775
Export Prices 132.54
Index Points
124 128 125 125 125
Import Prices 119.48
Index Points
115 116 125 115 145
Food Inflation -2.11
percent
-0.5 1.6 2 3 4.5
Producer Prices Change -0.50
percent
1.5 2 2.3 2.5 4.8
CPI Housing Utilities 8368.90
Index Points
8307 8506 8719 8585 9549
CPI Transportation 4780.04
Index Points
4629 4767 4889 4844 5354
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent
6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 8
Cash Reserve Ratio 25.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Money Supply M0 263342.86
BRL Million
263911 270816 268365 263828 262153
Money Supply M1 333043.71
BRL Million
318607 322848 321192 320182 320616
Money Supply M2 2492743.34
BRL Million
2458670 2455763 2453431 2451118 2423403
Money Supply M3 5917453.39
BRL Million
6017479 6139934 6262193 6384134 7703179
Foreign Exchange Reserves 379979.00
USD Million
376677 376176 375432 374583 549000
Banks Balance Sheet 5920108.90
BRL Million
5650000 5854027 6000000 5854027 6100000
Loans to Private Sector 685049.00
BRL Million
662372 642306 623284 605245 458907
Deposit Interest Rate 12.40
percent
11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 13.4
Loan Growth 0.60
percent
0.4 0.55 1 0.75 1.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3175974117.00
BRL Thousand
3115569019 3105928070 3101232042 3098944645 3096773174
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 6140.00
USD Million
7600 5500 4500 9000 3000
Exports 19932.00
USD Million
21800 20000 19500 24000 25000
Imports 13790.00
USD Million
14200 14500 15000 15000 22000
Current Account 620.00
USD Million
-1500 -19000 -18000 -528 -500
Current Account to GDP -0.48
percent
-1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 -1.7
External Debt 673910.02
USD Million
672262 680388 672692 679981 734000
Terms of Trade 110.93
Index Points
108 110 100 108 86.21
Capital Flows 1247.50
USD Million
-223 -196 -165 -175 1030
Foreign Direct Investment 2618.00
USD Million
5164 5402 5432 5435 7000
Remittances 195.00
USD Million
203 190 188 200 197
Gold Reserves 67.30
Tonnes
67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3
Crude Oil Production 2615.00
BBL/D/1K
2613 2639 2639 2620 2620
Terrorism Index 1.57
1.01 0.95 0.9 0.85 1.51
Weapons Sales 45.00
USD Million
45 45 45 45 45
Tourist Arrivals 6578.00
Thousand
6400 6500 6600 6575 6000
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 74.04
percent
72 72 72 73 75
Government Budget -7.80
percent of GDP
-9 -7.8 -9 -7.8 -5
Government Budget Value -57631.08
BRL Million
-26340 -21836 -16386 -18342 -110000
Government Spending 114104.48
BRL Million
107813 113915 151247 117756 159524
Government Revenues 105659.17
BRL Million
101552 114359 105437 109248 116039
Military Expenditure 25751.34
USD Million
22932 22475 22017 21969 20878
Government Debt 4984707.60
BRL Million
5048249 5078357 5068796 5026271 4719753
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 55.50
Index Points
60 61 65 54.71 61
Services PMI 50.00
Index Points
51.3 51 51.5 50.4 52.7
Manufacturing PMI 52.30
51.9 52 52.8 52 52.8
Composite Pmi 50.60
Index
51.7 51.2 51.1 50.4 53.6
Industrial Production 1.30
percent
4.1 2.6 2.5 2.37 2.1
Industrial Production Mom -0.10
percent
0.6 1.61 0.4 0.43 1.1
Manufacturing Production 1.60
percent
2.5 2.08 0.4 0.89 1.8
Capacity Utilization 78.20
percent
78 77.59 79 77.02 79
Changes in Inventories -28869.36
BRL Million
28000 7003 30000 10288 21000
Total Vehicle Sales 178699.00
142510 142340 142051 141639 176000
Car Production 266111.00
Units
191000 209173 190000 204640 190000
Car Registrations 217.00
Thousand
202 196 189 192 191
Leading Economic Index -0.74
percent
0.1 0.19 0.2 -0.02 0.2
Small Business Sentiment 53.60
50.3 50.81 51 52.73 51
Internet Speed 6819.06
KBps
9593 9947 10325 10729 12317
IP Addresses 26855780.00
IP
26693623 26704333 26721060 26725164 26743459
Mining Production -1.30
percent
1.89 2.53 0.2 3.01 1.5
Steel Production 3065.00
Thousand Tonnes
2749 2750 2750 2750 2750
Competitiveness Index 4.14
Points
4.13 4.1 4.13 4.1 4.18
Competitiveness Rank 80.00
79 80 79 80 77
Ease of Doing Business 125.00
115 125 114 125 112
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
42 37 42 37 45
Corruption Rank 96.00
74 93 74 98 72
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 102.20
Index Points
103 103 104 103 103
Retail Sales MoM 0.30
percent
0.3 0.1 0.5 0.6 1
Retail Sales YoY 6.50
percent
2.2 2.4 3.8 3.5 2.1
Consumer Spending 1089471.43
BRL Million
1033839 1061413 1114529 1033904 1175522
Consumer Credit 1669077.00
BRL Million
1658816 1660758 1659804 1660369 1660209
Private Sector Credit 2863905.00
BRL Million
2846645 2842750 3300000 2838135 3690000
Bank Lending Rate 57.21
percent
56.71 56.71 56.71 56.71 58.21
Households Debt To Gdp 21.60
Percent
21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Gasoline Prices 1.21
USD/Liter
1.21 1.14 1.07 1.01 0.71
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 129.30
Index Points
129 129 129 129 130
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00
percent
34 34 34 34 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 27.50
percent
27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5
Sales Tax Rate 17.00
percent
17 17 17 17 17
Social Security Rate 39.80
percent
39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.80
percent
28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 24.74
celsius
24.02 24.29 25.42 25.32 25.3