Brazil | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

The Brazilian economy is expected to emerge from a 2-year recession in 2017, as private investment and production continue to improve while consumption will likely remain subdued amid high unemployment. The inflation is forecasted to slow further and reach 4.1 percent by the year-end while the central bank will likely cut rates by an additional 275 bps to 8.5 percent by the end of the year. Government spending is expected to contract after a cap on fiscal expenditure was approved and as additional reforms, including cuts in pensions and social benefits are being implemented. The economic recovery is heavily dependent on the government ability to pass such reforms, reduce fiscal imbalances and restore consumer and business confidence. This page has economic forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 13.60 13.7 14 14.1 13.8 10.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.60 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 10.25 10.25 9.75 8.5 8.5 8 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 7661.00 6400 5500 4800 5000 3000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 69.49 70 70 70 72 75 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 3.29 3.31 3.35 3.44 3.41 3.94 [+]
Stock Market 62130.92 61300 60700 58800 59400 49500 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 10.62 10.76 10.86 10.97 11.08 12.78 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -0.40 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.9 percent [+]
GDP 1803.65 1580 1580 1580 1620 2010 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 283460.35 280000 287000 285600 287900 299000 BRL Million [+]
Gross National Product 1560168.58 1640000 1680000 1750000 1800000 2000000 BRL Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 248569.48 262000 263000 266000 268000 306000 BRL Million [+]
GDP per capita 11211.89 10050 10050 10050 11200 11730 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 14532.98 14500 14500 14500 16000 18800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 23855.60 16558 17972 17698 17751 18500 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Construction 15825.31 15974 16144 15836 15663 18200 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 26298.50 28076 29672 27741 26370 33500 [+]
GDP From Mining 2438.91 2470 2595 2556 2487 2860 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 38657.59 39253 39374 38893 38518 40400 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Services 169630.32 171000 172790 173311 167526 209000 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Transport 7574.90 7900 7983 7727 7642 9140 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 6445.94 6471 6409 6437 6437 6240 BRL Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.60 13.7 14 14.1 13.8 10.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 89.24 90 90 91 91.2 92 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 14.05 13.15 13.25 13.5 12.9 9 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.60 61.8 61.8 61.8 61.9 62.8 percent [+]
Labour Costs 138.66 135 130 120 122 139 Index Points [+]
Wages 2107.00 2020 2037 2050 2058 2500 BRL/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 937.00 937 937 937 1090 1280 BRL/Month [+]
Population 206.08 207 207 207 208 212 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4100.00 4200 4250 4250 4290 4600 BRL/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 2063.00 2030 2054 2060 2075 2560 BRL/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1200.00 1230 1250 1250 1280 1350 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2187.00 2255 2258 2259 2259 2259 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1608.90 1670 1675 1676 1677 1677 BRL/Month [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 34.25 -40 -10 19 25 20 Thousand [+]
Productivity 138.66 132 135 138 139 162 Index Points [+]
Employment Change -3.60 1 1.5 1.8 -3.5 1 percent [+]
Employment Rate 53.20 54.2 54.3 54.4 54.5 56 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.60 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.31 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.33 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 4843.41 4842 4847 4852 4900 5360 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.50 5.3 5.1 5 5.2 5.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 8.30 7.53 7.85 8.17 8.08 8.19 percent [+]
Producer Prices 686.04 680 660 640 650 950 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 129.85 129 127 127 127 125 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 115.86 111 112 113 115 145 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.36 2.4 2.3 2.4 3 6 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.80 -0.7 -1.2 0.7 1.1 4.8 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 8104.50 8119 8248 8347 8438 8931 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 4504.61 4486 4462 4453 4451 5200 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 10.25 10.25 9.75 8.5 8.5 8 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 237651.51 242846 246650 246998 246806 246718 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M1 307874.03 308464 309991 309967 309937 309942 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2342597.56 2348601 2354879 2371856 2369589 2387573 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M3 5423627.99 5506121 5622852 5743364 5864222 7174013 BRL Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 376491.00 377709 381056 382899 383815 549000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5715530.53 5700000 5800000 5800000 5700000 6100000 BRL Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 775267.00 766543 754147 742293 731148 645014 BRL Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 12.40 9.7 9 8.5 8.5 8 percent [+]
Loan Growth -0.20 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3050753991.00 3095773400 3165135473 3232302083 3298844051 3985579104 BRL Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 7661.00 6400 5500 4800 5000 3000 USD Million [+]
Exports 19792.00 20900 19000 18500 19100 25000 USD Million [+]
Imports 12131.00 13000 13500 13700 14100 22000 USD Million [+]
Current Account 2884.20 1900 1200 1100 1200 -500 USD Million [+]
External Debt 678952.08 648061 671377 654835 657169 734000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.30 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.7 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 112.07 104 94 91 112 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 3136.00 1819 2312 2127 2345 1030 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2925.60 6227 6491 6525 6529 7000 USD Million [+]
Remittances 214.60 206 187 192 195 196 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 67.29 67.26 67.27 67.28 67.27 67.27 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2676.00 2676 2674 2675 2675 2675 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 1.74 2.21 1.19 1.01 0.91 1.52 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 5813.00 5819 5824 5828 5828 5807 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 109.00 64.03 65.46 66.9 68.5 87.83 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 69.49 70 70 70 72 75 percent [+]
Government Budget -8.90 -8.5 -8.5 -8.5 -9 -7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -15422.53 -48636 -44162 -44287 -45056 -110000 BRL Million [+]
Government Spending 95500.22 106389 104210 104210 104272 104263 BRL Million [+]
Government Revenues 97693.83 109259 110419 109249 110414 110585 BRL Million [+]
Military Expenditure 22839.30 23334 22841 22347 22394 23071 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 4547705.05 4611647 4718861 4819306 4917126 5820914 BRL Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 51.90 53.5 51.7 52.5 53 51 [+]
Services PMI 49.20 49.4 52 52 51.8 52.7 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.00 51.3 52.1 52.7 52.4 52.8 [+]
Composite Pmi 50.40 50.6 51 50.9 50.5 53.6 Index [+]
Industrial Production -4.50 1 1.5 0.1 0.7 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -5.70 0.2 0.6 1 1.1 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.70 77.3 77.5 78 78 79 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 22385.89 11100 36000 15000 19000 21000 BRL Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 163294.00 122000 146248 147665 149221 176000 [+]
Car Production 237060.00 185000 184000 186000 191000 190000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 196.00 190 179 178 178 178 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.28 0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Small Business Sentiment 48.80 48.5 48.9 49 50.2 51 [+]
Steel Production 2931.00 2994 2935 2940 2948 2946 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 4.40 -1 -0.5 -1.1 3.63 1.5 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.13 4.18 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 81.00 81 81 81 79 77 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 123.00 116 116 115 115 112 [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 38 39 40 42 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 76 76 75 74 72 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 100.50 104 101 101 102 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.00 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.90 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 2.1 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1003617.65 1070000 1090000 1110000 1130000 1300000 BRL Million [+]
Consumer Credit 1577269.00 1596116 1624214 1652066 1679664 1967049 BRL Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 2840595.00 2836898 2829840 3120000 2816715 3690000 BRL Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 68.05 67.49 66.18 65.44 65.01 55.43 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.12 1.18 1.15 1.09 1.08 1.08 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Home Ownership Rate 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 percent [+]
Housing Index 130.00 130 129 129 128 124 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 27.50 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.80 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.80 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]