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China Inflation Rate Above Estimates
The consumer price index in China rose by 0.4% yoy in March 2021, after a 0.2% drop a month earlier and compared with market consensus of a 0.3% gain. This was the highest reading since October 2020, amid a sharp rebound in cost of for non-food goods (0.7% vs -0.2% in February), driven by transportation & communication (2.7% vs -1.9%); clothing (0.1% vs -0.5%); rent, fuel & utilities (0.2% vs -0.3%). At the same time, cost of household goods and services was flat after falling 0.2% in February, while prices of other goods and services fell further (-1.5% vs -0.8%). Food prices dropped 0.7%, the second straight fall, with prices of pork declining faster (-18.4% vs -14.9%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices went down 0.5% in March, the first decline in four months, following a 0.6% rise in February.
Published on 2021-04-09

China Consumer Prices Fall Less than Expected
The consumer price index in China dropped by 0.2 percent year-on-year in February 2021, after a 0.3 percent fall a month earlier and compared with market consensus of a 0.4 percent decline. Food prices decreased 0.2 percent, the first drop in three months, with prices of pork declining sharply (-14.9 percent vs -3.9 percent in January). Also, cost for non-food goods continued to fall (-0.2 percent vs -0.8 percent), mainly driven by transportation & communication (-1.9 percent vs -4.6 percent); clothing (-0.5 percent vs -0.2 percent); rent, fuel & utilities (-0.3 percent vs -0.4 percent); household goods and services (-0.2 percent vs 0.0 percent); and other goods and services (-0.8 percent vs -0.9 percent). Meantime, inflation slowed for healthcare (0.3 percent vs 0.4 percent), but picked up for education (0.6 percent vs 0.0 percent). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.6 percent in February.
Published on 2021-03-10

China Consumer Prices Unexpectedly Fall
The consumer price index in China unexpectedly dropped by 0.3 percent year-on-year in January 2021, after a 0.2 percent gain a month earlier and compared with market consensus of a flat reading. The decline was mainly due to lower cost of non food, with prices falling for transport (-4.6% vs -3.1%); rent, fuel, and utilities (-0.4% vs -0.6%); clothing (-0.2% vs -0.1%); and other goods and services (-0.9% vs 2.2%). Meantime, prices of household goods and services were flat for the third straight month. Also, education cost was flat after rising 0.9% in December. In addition, prices of health slowed sharply (0.4% vs 1.3%). Meanwhile, food prices went up 1.6%, the most in three months, following a 1.2% gain in December. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 1% in January, shifting from a 0.4% fall in December, due to adverse weather and rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday.
Published on 2021-02-10

China Inflation Rate Rises More than Expected
The consumer price index in China rose by 0.2 percent year-on-year in December 2020, after a 0.5 percent fall a month earlier and compared with market consensus of a 0.1 percent gain. Food prices went up 1.2 percent, reversing from a 2.0 percent fall in November, amid adverse weather and rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year festival. Pork prices fell less (-1.3% vs -12.5%) after soaring last year due to the African Swine outbreak. Also, there were rises in cost of health (1.3% vs 1.5%), education (0.9% vs 1.0%), and other goods and services (2.2% vs 2.5%). At the same time, prices of household goods and services were flat for the second straight month, while cost fell for transport (-3.1% vs -3.9%); rent, fuel, and utilities (-0.6% vs -0.6%); and clothing (-0.1% vs -0.3%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.7 percent, the most since February, after a 0.6 percent fall in November. For full 2020, consumer prices rose 2.5%.
Published on 2021-01-11

China Consumer Prices Fall for First Time in 11 Years
The consumer price index in China unexpectedly declined by 0.5 percent year-on-year in November of 2020, after a 0.5 percent rise a month earlier and compared with market consensus of a flat reading. This was the first deflation rate since October of 2009 as food prices dropped for the first time in nearly three years (-2 percent), with prices of pork tumbling after soaring last year due to the African Swine outbreak. Also, there were falls in cost of transport (-3.9 percent vs -3.9 percent in October); rent, fuel, and utilities (-0.6 percent vs -0.7 percent); and clothing (-0.3 percent vs -0.3 percent). Meanwhile, prices of household goods and services were flat (vs -0.1 percent), while cost rose for health (1.5 percent vs 1.5 percent); education (1 percent vs 1.1 percent); and other goods and services (2.5 percent vs 2.4 percent). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.6 percent, the steepest drop since May, and following a 0.3 percent decline in October.
Published on 2020-12-09

China Inflation Rate Lowest Since 2009
China's annual inflation rate eased to 0.5 percent in October 2020, the lowest since October 2009 and below market expectations of 0.8 percent. There was a sharp slowdown in prices of food (2.2 percent vs 7.9 percent in September), with pork prices falling for the first time in over 1-1/2 years. Meantime, there were falls in cost of transport (-3.9 percent vs -3.6 percent); rent, fuel, and utilities (-0.7 percent vs -0.8 percent); household goods and services (-0.1 percent vs -0.1 percent); and clothing (-0.3 percent vs -0.4 percent). At the same time, prices rose for health (1.5 percent vs 1.5 percent); and education (1.1 percent vs 0.7 percent); and other goods and services (2.4 percent vs 4.3 percent). On a monthly basis, consumer prices unexpectedly fell by 0.3 percent, the first drop in four months, missing consensus of a 0.2 percent rise.
Published on 2020-11-10

China Inflation Rate Slows to 19-Month Low
China's annual inflation rate eased to 1.7 percent in September 2020 from 2.4 percent in the previous month and slightly below market expectations of 1.8 percent. It was the lowest reading since February 2019, amid a marked slowdown in prices of food (7.9 percent vs 11.2 percent in August). Meantime, cost of non-food products was flat, after a 0.1 percent gain in August. There were declines in cost of transport (-3.6 percent vs -3.9 percent in August); rent, fuel, and utilities (-0.8 percent vs -0.7 percent); household goods and services (-0.1 percent vs -0.1 percent); and clothing (-0.4 percent vs -0.5 percent). At the same time, prices increased for health (1.5 percent vs 1.5 percent); other goods and services (4.3 percent vs 6.1 percent); and education, culture & recreation (0.7 percent vs a flat reading). On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.2 percent in September, the lowest in three months, following a 0.4 percent gain in August.
Published on 2020-10-15

China Inflation Rate Slows to 3-Month Low
China's annual inflation rate eased to 2.4 percent in August 2020 from 2.7 percent in the previous month and in line with market expectations. This was the lowest figure since May as food inflation slowed (11.2 percent vs 13.2 percent in July). Meantime, prices for non-food products and services went up 0.1 percent, compared to a flat reading in July, with cost of other goods and services rising faster (6.1 percent vs 5.1 percent in July). At the same time, health inflation was little-changed (1.5 percent vs 1.6 percent), while cost of education, culture & recreation was flat, after a 0.3 percent rise in July. Also, prices continued to fall for transport (-3.9 percent vs -4.4 percent); rent, fuel, and utilities (-0.7 percent vs -0.7 percent); household goods and services (-0.1 percent vs -0.1 percent); and clothing (-0.5 percent vs -0.5 percent). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in August, following a 0.6 percent gain in July.
Published on 2020-09-09

China Inflation Rate Rises More than Forecast
China's annual inflation rate rose to 2.7 percent in July 2020, recovering further from a 14-month low hit in May and slightly beating market expectations of 2.6 percent. Food inflation hit its highest in three months (13.2 percent vs 11.1 percent in June), amid the coronavirus pandemic and damage caused by floods in central and southern of the country. Meantime, prices for non-food products and services were unchanged, after rising in June. Inflation was flat for other goods and services (at 5.1 percent), while prices increased at a slower pace for both healthcare (1.6 percent vs 1.9 percent) and education, culture & recreation (0.3 percent vs 1.9 percent). At the same time, cost fell for transport (-4.4 percent vs -4.6 percent), rent, fuel, and utilities (-0.7 percent vs -0.6 percent), household goods and services (-0.1 percent vs 0.0 percent), and clothing (-0.5 percent vs -0.4 percent). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.6 percent, the first rise in five months.
Published on 2020-08-10

China Inflation Rate Edges Up to 2.5%
China's annual inflation rate rose to 2.5 percent in June 2020 from a 14-month low of 2.4 percent in the prior month and in line with market expectations. Food inflation accelerated to 11.1 percent from 10.6 percent in May as pork prices continued to rise (81.6 percent vs 81.7 percent). On the other hand, non-food prices slowed (0.3 percent vs 0.4 percent in May), due to healthcare (1.9 percent vs 2.1 percent), education, culture & recreation (1.9 percent vs 2.2 percent), and other goods & services (5.1 percent vs 5.3 percent). Meantime, cost fell for transport (-4.6 percent vs -5.1 percent), rent, fuel, and utilities (-0.6 percent vs -0.5 percent) and clothing (-0.4 percent, the same as in May). On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped 0.1 percent, after a 0.8 percent decline in May and compared with forecasts of a flat reading.
Published on 2020-07-09

China Inflation Rate Slows to 14-Month Low
China's annual inflation rate fell to 2.4% in May 2020 from 3.3% in the previous month, below market consensus of 2.7%. This was the lowest figure since March 2019, amid government control measures to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Food inflation eased to a 9-month low of 10.6% from 14.8% in April, with pork prices rising for 15th month and at a softer rate (81.7% vs 96.9%). Meantime, non-food inflation was unchanged at 0.4% as cost of other goods and services rose by 5.3%, the same as in April, while there were rises in cost of clothing (2.3% vs -0.3%), household goods (0.1% vs 0.3%), education, culture (2.2 % vs 2.5%), and healthcare (2.1% vs 2.2 %). Meantime, cost fell for both rent, fuel and utilities (-0.5% vs -0.1%) and transport (-5.1% vs -3.8%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped by 0.8 percent, after a 0.9 percent decline in April and compared with forecasts of a 0.5% fall.
Published on 2020-06-10

China Inflation Rate Hits 7-Month Low
China's annual inflation rate fell to 3.3 percent in April 2020 from 4.3 percent in the previous month and below market consensus of 3.7 percent. This was the lowest rate since September 2019 as the COVID-19 crisis deepened. Food inflation eased also to a seven-month low of 14.8 percent from 18.3 percent in March, with pork prices rising at a softer rate (96.9 percent vs 116.4 percent). Non-food inflation also slowed to 0.4 percent from 0.7 percent, amid falls in cost of clothing (-0.4 percent vs -0.3 percent), rent, fuel and utilities (-0.3 percent vs -0.1 percent), and transport & communication (-4.9 percent vs -3.8 percent). Upward pressure came from household goods & services (0.1 percent vs 0.3 percent), education, culture & recreation (2 percent vs 2.5 percent), healthcare (2.2 percent, the same as in March) and other goods & services (4.8 percent vs 5.3 percent). On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped 0.9 percent, after a 1.2 percent decline in March.
Published on 2020-05-12

China Inflation Rate Slows More than Estimated
China's annual inflation rate fell to 4.3% in March 2020 from 5.2% in February and compared with market consensus of 4.8%. This was the lowest inflation rate since October 2019, amid government control measures to contain the COVID-19 outbreak, with cost rising less for both food and non-food. Food inflation eased to 18.3% from a near 12-month high of 21.9% in February, with pork prices rising for 13th month and at a softer rate (116.4% vs 135.2%). Non-food inflation also eased to 0.7% to 0.9%, amid falls in cost of clothing (-0.3% vs 0.5%), rent, fuel and utilities (-0.1% vs 0.3%), and transport (-3.8% vs -1.6%), while cost rose for household goods (0.3% vs 0.1%), education, culture (2.5 % vs 1%), healthcare (2.2% vs 2.2 %) and other goods and services (5.3% vs 4.4%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 1.2%, the first drop since June last year, after a 0.8% gain in February.
Published on 2020-04-10

China Inflation Rate Slows to 5.2% in February
China's annual inflation rate fell to 5.2 percent in February 2020 from an over eight-year high of 5.4 percent in January, as non-food prices rose at a softer pace due to clothing (0.5 percent vs 0.6 percent), rent, fuel & utilities (0.3 percent vs 0.5 percent), household goods & services (0.1 percent vs 0.2 percent), education, culture & recreation (1.0 percent vs 2.2 percent), healthcare (2.2 percent vs 2.3 percent) and other goods and services (4.4 percent vs 4.8 percent). In addition, transport & communication prices fell 1.6 percent (vs 0.9 percent in January). Meanwhile, food prices surged 21.9 percent, the most since April 2008, with pork prices rising at a steeper rate (135.2 percent vs 116 percent). Pork prices have been rising amid a prolonged African swine fever epidemic and some lock-downs and transport restrictions on the back of a virus outbreak. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.8 percent, much slower than a 1.4 percent gain in January.
Published on 2020-03-10

China Inflation Rate Highest in Over 8 Years
China's annual inflation rate jumped to 5.4% in January 2020 from 4.5% in December, above market consensus of 4.9%. This was the highest inflation rate since October 2011 due to rising pork prices, stronger demand during the Lunar New Year holiday and the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. Food prices went up 20.6% yoy, the most since April 2008, with pork prices rising for the 11th month in a row and at a steeper rate (116% vs 97% in December). Pork prices have been rising during the last year amid a prolonged African swine fever epidemic and in January 2020, several lockdowns and transport restrictions due to the coronavirus outbreak weighed on the pork cost even more. Non-food price inflation rose to 1.6% from 1.3% in December. Main upward pressure came from clothing (0.6% vs 0.8%); rent, fuel (0.5% vs 0.5%), household goods (0.2% vs 0.4%); transport & communication (0.9% vs -0.7%); education, culture (2.2% vs 1.8%); healthcare (2.3% vs 2.1%) and other goods and services (4.8% vs 4.4%).
Published on 2020-02-10

China Inflation Rate Stays at 8-Year High
China's annual inflation rate unexpectedly steadied at 4.5 percent in December 2019, the same as in the previous month and less than market expectations of 4.7 percent. Still, it remained the highest inflation rate since January 2012, as pork prices surged 97 percent on the back of a prolonged African swine fever epidemic. The government previously said it will use its reserves to provide sufficient pork supply to meet higher demand ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays later in January. Food inflation eased to 17.1 percent from 19.1 percent while non food cost rose at a faster 1.3 percent (1 percent). For full 2019, consumer inflation was at 2.9 percent, in line with the government target of 3 percent. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat in December, compared to market estimates of a 0.3 percent advance and following a 0.4 percent gain in November.
Published on 2020-01-09

China Inflation Rate Highest Since 2012
China's annual inflation rose to 4.5% in November 2019 from 3.8% in the previous month, above market expectations of 4.2%. It is the highest inflation rate since January 2012 as pork prices jumped 110% caused by a prolonged African swine fever epidemic. The government recently said it will use the reserves to provide sufficient pork supply to meat demand for China's Lunar New Year holidays in January. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.4%, after a 0.9% jump in October and compared to market estimates of 0.1%.
Published on 2019-12-10

China Inflation Rate Rises to Near 8-Year High
China's annual inflation rose to 3.8 percent in October 2019 from 3 percent in the previous month and above market expectations of 3.3 percent. This was the highest inflation rate since January 2012, mainly due to persistently high pork prices following an outbreak of African swine fever. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.9 percent in October, the same as in September, and higher than market estimates of 0.7 percent.
Published on 2019-11-09

China Inflation Rate Rises to Near 6-Year High
China's annual inflation rose to 3 percent in September 2019 from 2.8 percent in the previous month and above market expectations of 2.9 percent. This was the highest inflation rate since October 2013, mainly due to persistently high pork prices following an outbreak of African swine fever. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.9 percent in September, the most since February, following a 0.7 percent gain in August and higher than market estimates of 0.7 percent.
Published on 2019-10-15

China August Inflation Rate Steady at 2.8%
China's annual inflation rate was at 2.8 percent in August 2019, unchanged from the previous month and above market forecasts of 2.6 percent. It remained the highest consumer inflation rate since February 2018, driven by persistently high pork prices amid an outbreak of African swine fever.
Published on 2019-09-10