News

ECB Holds Rates, Raises Inflation Forecasts
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at its March 2026 meeting, reaffirming its commitment to stabilizing inflation at 2% in the medium term. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, with the deposit facility at 2.0% and marginal lending rate at 2.4%. Policymakers highlighted that the Middle East war has significantly increased uncertainty, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for growth. The ECB raised its inflation forecasts, particularly for 2026, due to higher energy prices driven by the Middle East war. Headline inflation is now projected at 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028. Core inflation projections were also increased, while growth forecasts were cut, especially for 2026, as the war’s impact on commodity markets, real incomes, and confidence takes its toll. The ECB expects GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028.
Published on 2026-03-19

ECB Holds Rates, Raises Inflation Forecasts
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at its March 2026 meeting, reaffirming its commitment to stabilizing inflation at 2% in the medium term. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, with the deposit facility at 2.0% and marginal lending rate at 2.4%. Policymakers highlighted that the Middle East war has significantly increased uncertainty, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for growth. The ECB raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6%, with 2027 at 2.0% and 2028 at 2.1%, citing elevated energy prices. Core inflation projections were also revised upward, while growth forecasts were slashed, particularly for 2026, due to the war’s global impact on commodity markets, real incomes, and confidence. The ECB now expects GDP growth of just 0.9% in 2026, followed by 1.3% in 2027 and 1.4% in 2028.
Published on 2026-03-19

ECB Set to Hold Rates Amid Rising Inflation Risks
The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for a sixth straight meeting on Thursday, maintaining a cautious stance as policymakers navigate heightened uncertainty driven by escalating Middle East tensions and persistent inflation risks. The ECB will also release updated economic projections, while President Christine Lagarde’s press conference will be closely watched for signals on how the bank plans to address the economic fallout from the ongoing conflict. Last week, Lagarde reiterated the ECB’s commitment to ensuring inflation remains under control, stating that the bank will "do all that is necessary" to achieve this goal. Recent remarks from officials suggest a shift toward a more hawkish approach, as policymakers remain vigilant about the risk of another energy shock potentially triggering structural inflationary pressures.
Published on 2026-03-19

ECB Lagarde Vows to Tame Inflation Amid Energy Shock
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the central bank will do everything necessary to keep inflation under control despite the latest surge in energy prices. Speaking in an interview on Tuesday, Lagarde stressed that policymakers remain committed to preventing a repeat of the sharp price spikes seen in recent years. “I can assure you ... that we will do everything necessary to keep inflation under control and to ensure that the French, the Europeans, do not experience inflationary increases like those we saw in 2022 and 2023,” she said. Lagarde noted that Europe is now better positioned to absorb the current energy shock than it was during the 2022 crisis, thanks to stronger policy responses and improved resilience across the region. However, she also warned that uncertainty and market volatility remain elevated
Published on 2026-03-10

ECB Minutes Show Undershoot Worries Before Iran War
The European Central Bank said policymakers expected inflation to drop further below their 2% target before the recent surge in energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Minutes from the February 4–5 meeting showed officials were comfortable keeping interest rates unchanged and believed the overall outlook was stable, supported by the euro’s strength against the dollar. At the time, inflation was projected to fall below target in the near term, though policymakers warned that volatile energy prices could quickly alter the outlook. That risk has now become more visible after oil prices jumped more than 20% this week, which could push inflation higher in the short run since Europe relies heavily on imported energy. Markets are now pricing in a small chance of a rate hike by December. For now, the bank says its policy stance is appropriate, but it remains ready to adjust if inflation risks intensify.
Published on 2026-03-05

ECB Minutes Show Undershoot Worries Before Iran War
The European Central Bank said policymakers expected inflation to drop further below their 2% target before the recent surge in energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Minutes from the February 4–5 meeting showed officials were comfortable keeping interest rates unchanged and believed the overall outlook was stable, supported by the euro’s strength against the dollar. At the time, inflation was projected to fall below target in the near term, though policymakers warned that volatile energy prices could quickly alter the outlook. That risk has now become more visible after oil prices jumped more than 20% this week, which could push inflation higher in the short run since Europe relies heavily on imported energy. Markets are now pricing in a small chance of a rate hike by December. For now, the bank says its policy stance is appropriate, but it remains ready to adjust if inflation risks intensify.
Published on 2026-03-05

ECB Minutes Show Undershoot Worries Before Iran War
The European Central Bank said policymakers expected inflation to drop further below their 2% target before the recent surge in energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Minutes from the February 4–5 meeting showed officials were comfortable keeping interest rates unchanged and believed the overall outlook was stable, supported by the euro’s strength against the dollar. At the time, inflation was projected to fall below target in the near term, though policymakers warned that volatile energy prices could quickly alter the outlook. That risk has now become more visible after oil prices jumped more than 20% this week, which could push inflation higher in the short run since Europe relies heavily on imported energy. Markets are now pricing in a small chance of a rate hike by December. For now, the bank says its policy stance is appropriate, but it remains ready to adjust if inflation risks intensify.
Published on 2026-03-05

ECB Holds Rates Steady, Outlook Remains Uncertain
The ECB left interest rates unchanged at its first policy meeting of 2026, reiterating that inflation is expected to stabilize at its 2% target over the medium term. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations was maintained at 2.15%, while the deposit facility and marginal lending rates were kept at 2.0% and 2.4%, respectively. The ECB said the euro area economy remains resilient, but cautioned that the outlook remains uncertain, particularly due to global trade policy risks and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Speaking at the ECB press conference, President Lagarde reiterated that both the central bank and the euro area inflation outlook are in a “good place.” She warned that inflation figures may move unevenly in the months ahead, but emphasized that policy decisions should not be driven by any single data release. Lagarde also acknowledged that uncertainty around the inflation outlook is higher than normal, reflecting the volatility of the global policy environment.
Published on 2026-02-05

ECB Holds Rates Steady, Outlook Remains Uncertain
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at its first policy meeting of 2026, in line with expectations, reiterating that inflation is expected to stabilize at its 2% target over the medium term. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations was maintained at 2.15%, while the deposit facility and marginal lending rates were kept at 2.0% and 2.4%, respectively. The ECB said the euro area economy remains resilient, supported by low unemployment, healthy private-sector balance sheets, the gradual rollout of public spending on defense and infrastructure, and the lingering supportive effects of earlier rate cuts. However, policymakers cautioned that the outlook remains uncertain, particularly due to global trade policy risks and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Investor attention now turns to President Christine Lagarde’s press conference for any signals on how the ECB is assessing the impact of a stronger euro on the inflation outlook.
Published on 2026-02-05

ECB to Hold Rates, Outlook Clouded by Strong Euro
The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, as policymakers weigh the impact of a weaker US dollar and a wave of low-priced Chinese imports on the inflation outlook. Data released Wednesday showed euro area inflation eased to 1.7% in January, the lowest since September 2024, while core inflation unexpectedly slipped to 2.2%, its lowest level since October 2021. The ECB has held policy steady since June, and markets see little scope for near-term shifts as the eurozone economy shows signs of resilience and inflation remains close to target, with President Christine Lagarde expected to reiterate that policy is in a “good place.” Still, the euro’s recent rally has sparked concern within the Governing Council: Austria’s Martin Kocher warned that further appreciation could push the ECB to resume rate cuts, while France’s François Villeroy de Galhau pointed to the dollar’s recent depreciation as a key factor shaping the bank’s outlook.
Published on 2026-02-05

ECB to Hold Rates, Outlook Clouded by Strong Euro
The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, as policymakers weigh the impact of a stronger euro and a wave of low-priced Chinese imports on the inflation outlook. Data released Wednesday showed euro area inflation eased to 1.7% in January, the lowest since September 2024, while core inflation unexpectedly slipped to 2.2%, its lowest level since October 2021. The ECB has held policy steady since June, and markets see little scope for near-term shifts as the eurozone economy shows signs of resilience and inflation remains close to target, with President Christine Lagarde expected to reiterate that policy is in a “good place.” Still, the euro’s recent rally has sparked concern within the Governing Council: Austria’s Martin Kocher warned that further appreciation could push the ECB to resume rate cuts, while France’s François Villeroy de Galhau pointed to the dollar’s recent depreciation as a key factor shaping the bank’s outlook.
Published on 2026-02-05

ECB Seen Holding Rates as Policymakers Weigh FX Moves
The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, as policymakers weigh the impact of a weaker US dollar and a wave of low-priced Chinese imports on the inflation outlook. Data released Wednesday showed euro area inflation eased to 1.7% in January, the lowest since September 2024, while core inflation unexpectedly slipped to 2.2%, its lowest level since October 2021. The ECB has held policy steady since June, and markets see little scope for near-term shifts as the eurozone economy shows signs of resilience and inflation remains close to target, with President Christine Lagarde expected to reiterate that policy is in a “good place.” Still, the euro’s recent rally has sparked concern within the Governing Council: Austria’s Martin Kocher warned that further appreciation could push the ECB to resume rate cuts, while France’s François Villeroy de Galhau pointed to the dollar’s recent depreciation as a key factor shaping the bank’s outlook.
Published on 2026-02-05

ECB Maintains Patient Stance on Policy Rates
ECB policymakers noted that the central bank could afford to be patient, but stressed that this should not be interpreted as hesitancy to act or an asymmetric approach. According to the accounts from the December 2025 meeting, the ECB currently viewed its monetary policy stance as appropriate, though not static. Officials observed that economic activity had proven more resilient than expected, unemployment remained at historically low levels, and the inflation outlook was favorable, with prices projected to stay around target over the forecast horizon. However, the ECB acknowledged that future developments could materially diverge from the current outlook, given the range of potential risks. As a result, monetary policy will be calibrated as conditions evolve, rather than following a predetermined path. The ECB left borrowing costs unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting in December 2025, with the main refinancing rate remaining at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate holding at 2%.
Published on 2026-01-22

ECB Leaves Rates on Hold as Expected
The ECB left borrowing costs unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting in December 2025, with the main refinancing rate remaining at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate holding at 2.0%. The decision came in line with expectations.
Published on 2025-12-18

ECB Leaves Rates on Hold as Expected
The ECB left borrowing costs unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting in December 2025, with the main refinancing rate remaining at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate holding at 2.0%. The decision came in line with expectations. Policymakers reiterated they will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. Meanwhile, the central bank released new staff projections. Economic growth is expected to be stronger than in the September projections, driven especially by domestic demand. Growth has been revised up to 1.4% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 and is expected to remain at 1.4% in 2028. Headline inflation is seen averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. Inflation has been revised up for 2026, mainly because staff now expect services inflation to decline more slowly.
Published on 2025-12-18

ECB Leaves Rates on Hold as Expected
The ECB left borrowing costs unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting in December 2025, with the main refinancing rate remaining at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate holding at 2.0%. The decision came in line with expectations and policymakers reiterated they will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. During the regular press conference, President Lagarde noted that there had been no discussion of either rate hikes or cuts at this time. The President also emphasized that the ECB does not have a predetermined path for interest rates and, given the high degree of uncertainty, cannot provide forward guidance. Meanwhile, the central bank released new economic projections. Growth has been revised up to 1.4% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 and is expected to remain at 1.4% in 2028. Headline inflation is seen averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027 and 2% in 2028. Inflation has been revised up for 2026, mainly because of services.
Published on 2025-12-18

ECB Leaves Rates on Hold as Expected
The ECB left borrowing costs unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting in December 2025, with the main refinancing rate remaining at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate holding at 2.0%. The decision came in line with expectations. Policymakers reiterated they will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
Published on 2025-12-18

ECB to Hold Rates for 4th Meeting
The ECB is widely expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting in December 2025, with the main refinancing rate remaining at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate holding at 2.0%. ECB President Christine Lagarde has recently noted that monetary policy is in a “good place”. Recent data showed the Euro Area economy grew by 0.3% in Q3, significantly faster than the ECB had projected in its September forecasts, while inflation stood at 2.1% in November, slightly above the 2% target. Investors will also focus on the ECB’s outlook for 2026, particularly whether a rate hike could come into consideration, with market-implied odds of a hike by the end of 2026 hovering around 30%. The central bank will also release updated staff projections and is expected to revise its growth forecasts higher.
Published on 2025-12-18

ECB Officials See No Urgency to Ease Further
ECB policymakers agreed that keeping interest rates unchanged remained appropriate amid elevated uncertainty, with some members even suggesting that no additional easing may be necessary, according to the minutes of the October 29–30 meeting. The Governing Council judged that monetary policy is currently “in a good place,” supported by a resilient economy and inflation moving close to target. However, officials emphasized that inflation risks remain two-sided and stressed that the 2% deposit rate should be viewed as “sufficiently robust” for managing potential shocks. With the economic and inflation outlook broadly aligned with the ECB’s September projections, several policymakers argued that the rate-cutting cycle may have already reached its endpoint, as long as current favorable conditions persist. Others, however, urged maintaining a fully open stance regarding future policy moves.
Published on 2025-11-27

ECB Officials See No Urgency to Ease Further: Minutes
ECB policymakers agreed that keeping interest rates unchanged remained appropriate amid elevated uncertainty, with some members even suggesting that no additional easing may be necessary, according to the minutes of the October 29–30 meeting. The Governing Council judged that monetary policy is currently “in a good place,” supported by a resilient economy and inflation moving close to target. However, officials emphasized that inflation risks remain two-sided and stressed that the 2% deposit rate should be viewed as “sufficiently robust” for managing potential shocks. With the economic and inflation outlook broadly aligned with the ECB’s September projections, several policymakers argued that the rate-cutting cycle may have already reached its endpoint, as long as current favorable conditions persist. Others, however, urged maintaining a fully open stance regarding future policy moves.
Published on 2025-11-27