Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months jumped to 4.0% in March 2026, the highest level since October 2023 and up sharply from 2.5% in February. This marked the largest monthly increase since early 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted energy markets. The escalating Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a surge in energy prices and internsifed fears of broader inflationary pressures. Longer-term expectations also rose, with three-year inflation forecasts climbing to 3.0% in March from 2.5% in February, and five-year expectations edging up to 2.4% from 2.3%. Uncertainty over short-term inflation grew, though the upward trend in expectations was consistent across income groups. Lower-income respondents reported slightly higher near-term expectations, while younger respondents (18-34) continued to anticipate lower inflation than older age groups. source: European Central Bank

Inflation Expectations In the Euro Area increased to 4 percent in March from 2.50 percent in February of 2026. Inflation Expectations in Euro area averaged 3.19 percent from 2020 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 5.80 percent in October of 2022 and a record low of 1.90 percent in October of 2020. This page includes a chart with historical data for Euro Area Inflation Expectations. Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on May of 2026.

Inflation Expectations In the Euro Area increased to 4 percent in March from 2.50 percent in February of 2026. Inflation Expectations in Euro area is expected to be 3.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 1.90 percent in 2027 and 2.10 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-03-27 09:00 AM
ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations
Feb 2.5% 2.6% 2.5%
2026-04-28 08:00 AM
ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations
Mar 4% 2.5% 2.9%
2026-05-28 08:00 AM
ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations
Apr 4% 4.3%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.20 2.30 percent Apr 2026
Food Inflation 2.20 2.40 percent Mar 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations 4.00 2.50 percent Mar 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations 3Y 3.00 2.50 percent Mar 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations 5Y 2.40 2.30 percent Mar 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 3.00 2.60 percent Apr 2026
Inflation Rate MoM 1.00 1.30 percent Apr 2026


Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations
In the Euro Area, 12-month inflation expectations represent the median forecast for price increases over the next year, as measured by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Consumer Expectations Survey. The survey covers key eurozone economies, including Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Ireland, Greece, Austria, Portugal, and Finland, encompassing 96% of the euro area’s GDP and 94% of its population.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
4.00 2.50 5.80 1.90 2020 - 2026 percent Monthly
NSA

News Stream
Eurozone Inflation Expectations Spike Amid Geopolitical Risks
Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months jumped to 4.0% in March 2026, the highest level since October 2023 and up sharply from 2.5% in February. This marked the largest monthly increase since early 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted energy markets. The escalating Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a surge in energy prices and internsifed fears of broader inflationary pressures. Longer-term expectations also rose, with three-year inflation forecasts climbing to 3.0% in March from 2.5% in February, and five-year expectations edging up to 2.4% from 2.3%. Uncertainty over short-term inflation grew, though the upward trend in expectations was consistent across income groups. Lower-income respondents reported slightly higher near-term expectations, while younger respondents (18-34) continued to anticipate lower inflation than older age groups.
2026-04-28
Euro Area Inflation Expectations Fall for 2nd Month in February
Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months decreased for a second consecutive month to 2.5% in February 2026, the lowest since October 2024, from 2.6% in January. Expectations for inflation three years ahead also went down to 2.5% from 2.6% while expectations for five years ahead remained unchanged at 2.3%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged. Meanwhile, expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months declined to 3.6% from 3.7%, while expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time remained unchanged at 4.7%. Elsewhere, expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 1.2%, while expectations for spending growth rose to 3.5% from 3.4%. Expectations for economic growth became less negative (-0.9% vs -1.1%), while the expected unemployment rate decreased (10.8% vs 11%).
2026-03-27
Eurozone Inflation Expectations Fall to 6-Month Low
Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months decreased to 2.6% in January 2026, the lowest in six months, from 2.8% in December. Expectations for inflation three years ahead were unchanged at 2.6%, while inflation expectations for five years ahead decreased to 2.3%, from 2.4%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged in January. Respondents in lower income quintiles continued to report on average slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-horizon expectations than those in higher income quintiles, a trend observed since 2023. However, the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained closely aligned across income groups. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).
2026-02-27