Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months decreased for a second consecutive month to 2.5% in February 2026, the lowest since October 2024, from 2.6% in January. Expectations for inflation three years ahead also went down to 2.5% from 2.6% while expectations for five years ahead remained unchanged at 2.3%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged. Meanwhile, expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months declined to 3.6% from 3.7%, while expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time remained unchanged at 4.7%. Elsewhere, expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 1.2%, while expectations for spending growth rose to 3.5% from 3.4%. Expectations for economic growth became less negative (-0.9% vs -1.1%), while the expected unemployment rate decreased (10.8% vs 11%). source: European Central Bank

Inflation Expectations In the Euro Area decreased to 2.50 percent in February from 2.60 percent in January of 2026. Inflation Expectations in Euro area averaged 3.17 percent from 2020 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 5.80 percent in October of 2022 and a record low of 1.90 percent in October of 2020. This page includes a chart with historical data for Euro Area Inflation Expectations. Euro Area Inflation Expectations Over the Next 12 months - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2026.

Inflation Expectations In the Euro Area decreased to 2.50 percent in February from 2.60 percent in January of 2026. Inflation Expectations in Euro area is expected to be 2.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Euro Area Inflation Expectations Over the Next 12 months is projected to trend around 1.90 percent in 2027 and 2.10 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-02-27 09:00 AM
ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations
Jan 2.6% 2.8% 2.9%
2026-03-27 09:00 AM
ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations
Feb 2.5% 2.6% 2.5%
2026-04-29 08:00 AM
ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations
Mar 2.5% 2.9%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.30 2.40 percent Mar 2026
Food Inflation 2.40 2.60 percent Feb 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations 2.50 2.60 percent Feb 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 2.50 1.90 percent Mar 2026
Inflation Rate MoM 1.20 0.60 percent Mar 2026


Euro Area Inflation Expectations Over the Next 12 months
In the Euro Area, inflation expectations refer to the median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months and are part of the Consumer Expectations Survey published by the ECB. The results include responses from Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Ireland, Greece, Austria, Portugal, and Finland, with the poll's coverage at 96% of the euro area’s GDP and 94% of its population.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
2.50 2.60 5.80 1.90 2020 - 2026 percent Monthly

News Stream
Euro Area Inflation Expectations Fall for 2nd Month in February
Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months decreased for a second consecutive month to 2.5% in February 2026, the lowest since October 2024, from 2.6% in January. Expectations for inflation three years ahead also went down to 2.5% from 2.6% while expectations for five years ahead remained unchanged at 2.3%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged. Meanwhile, expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months declined to 3.6% from 3.7%, while expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time remained unchanged at 4.7%. Elsewhere, expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 1.2%, while expectations for spending growth rose to 3.5% from 3.4%. Expectations for economic growth became less negative (-0.9% vs -1.1%), while the expected unemployment rate decreased (10.8% vs 11%).
2026-03-27
Eurozone Inflation Expectations Fall to 6-Month Low
Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months decreased to 2.6% in January 2026, the lowest in six months, from 2.8% in December. Expectations for inflation three years ahead were unchanged at 2.6%, while inflation expectations for five years ahead decreased to 2.3%, from 2.4%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged in January. Respondents in lower income quintiles continued to report on average slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-horizon expectations than those in higher income quintiles, a trend observed since 2023. However, the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained closely aligned across income groups. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).
2026-02-27
Eurozone Inflation Expectations Steady Short-Term
Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months were unchanged at 2.8% in December 2025. By contrast, expectations over longer horizons edged higher: three-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.6% from 2.5%, while five-year-ahead expectations increased to 2.4% from 2.2%. Uncertainty around inflation expectations for the next 12 months also remained unchanged in December. Respondents in the lowest income quintiles continued to report slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-term expectations than those in higher income groups, consistent with a trend observed since 2023. Despite this gap, inflation perceptions and expectations evolved in broadly similar ways across income categories. Younger respondents (18–34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older groups (35–54 and 55–70).
2026-01-30