Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months declined to 3.5% in May 2026, the lowest level in three months, down from 4.0% in each of the previous two months, which marked the highest reading since 2023. Consumers also expect house prices to rise by 3.6% over the next year, slightly below 3.7% in April. Expectations for mortgage interest rates were unchanged at 4.9%. Meanwhile, longer-term inflation expectations were steady, at 2.9% for three years ahead and 2.4% for five years ahead. Uncertainty around 12-month inflation expectations eased but remained elevated compared with levels seen before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Elsewhere, consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months rose to 1.0% from 0.8% in April. Economic growth expectations for the year ahead improved to -1.7% from -2.2% and expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead ticked up slightly to 11.3% from 11.2% in April. source: European Central Bank

Inflation Expectations In the Euro Area decreased to 3.50 percent in May from 4 percent in April of 2026. Inflation Expectations in Euro area averaged 3.20 percent from 2020 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 5.80 percent in October of 2022 and a record low of 1.90 percent in October of 2020. This page includes a chart with historical data for Euro Area Inflation Expectations. Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2026.

Inflation Expectations In the Euro Area decreased to 3.50 percent in May from 4 percent in April of 2026. Inflation Expectations in Euro area is expected to be 4.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 2.50 percent in 2027 and 2.10 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-06-01 08:00 AM
ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations
Apr 4% 4% 4.3%
2026-06-26 08:00 AM
ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations
May 3.5% 4% 3.9%
2026-07-29 08:00 AM
ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations
Jun 3.5% 4.7%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.40 2.60 percent Jun 2026
Food Inflation 1.60 2.20 percent May 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.50 4.00 percent May 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations 3Y 2.90 2.90 percent May 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations 5Y 2.40 2.40 percent May 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 2.80 3.20 percent Jun 2026
Inflation Rate MoM -0.10 0.10 percent Jun 2026


Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations
In the Euro Area, 12-month inflation expectations represent the median forecast for price increases over the next year, as measured by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Consumer Expectations Survey. The survey covers key eurozone economies, including Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Ireland, Greece, Austria, Portugal, and Finland, encompassing 96% of the euro area’s GDP and 94% of its population.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
3.50 4.00 5.80 1.90 2020 - 2026 percent Monthly
NSA

News Stream
Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations Ease
Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months declined to 3.5% in May 2026, the lowest level in three months, down from 4.0% in each of the previous two months, which marked the highest reading since 2023. Consumers also expect house prices to rise by 3.6% over the next year, slightly below 3.7% in April. Expectations for mortgage interest rates were unchanged at 4.9%. Meanwhile, longer-term inflation expectations were steady, at 2.9% for three years ahead and 2.4% for five years ahead. Uncertainty around 12-month inflation expectations eased but remained elevated compared with levels seen before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Elsewhere, consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months rose to 1.0% from 0.8% in April. Economic growth expectations for the year ahead improved to -1.7% from -2.2% and expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead ticked up slightly to 11.3% from 11.2% in April.
2026-06-26
Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations Unchanged in April
Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months were steady at 4% in April 2026, the same as in March and staying at 2023-highs. Consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.7% over the next 12 months, which was unchanged from March and expectations for mortgage interest rates also remained unchanged. In addition, expectations for inflation three years ahead decreased to 2.9% from 3% and inflation expectations for five years ahead remained unchanged at 2.4%. Meanwhile, economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became more negative, decreasing to -2.2% from -2.1%. By contrast, expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead decreased to 11.2% from 11.3% in March. In addition, consumers’ nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months decreased to 0.8% in April from 1.2% in March.
2026-06-01
Eurozone Inflation Expectations Spike Amid Geopolitical Risks
Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months jumped to 4.0% in March 2026, the highest level since October 2023 and up sharply from 2.5% in February. This marked the largest monthly increase since early 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted energy markets. The escalating Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a surge in energy prices and internsifed fears of broader inflationary pressures. Longer-term expectations also rose, with three-year inflation forecasts climbing to 3.0% in March from 2.5% in February, and five-year expectations edging up to 2.4% from 2.3%. Uncertainty over short-term inflation grew, though the upward trend in expectations was consistent across income groups. Lower-income respondents reported slightly higher near-term expectations, while younger respondents (18-34) continued to anticipate lower inflation than older age groups.
2026-04-28