The business climate indicator in the Euro Area picked up to 1.09 in November 2018 from a 17-month low of 1.01 in the previous month and above market consensus of 0.96. Managers' assessment of past production improved markedly, as did, to a lesser extent, their production expectations and their appraisal of their overall orders books. By contrast, managers' views on their stocks of finished products and export orders books deteriorated. Business Confidence in the Euro Area averaged 0 Index Points from 1985 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 1.62 Index Points in January of 2018 and a record low of -3.27 Index Points in March of 2009.
Business Confidence in Euro Area is expected to be 1.11 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Euro Area to stand at 1.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Business Climate Indicator is projected to trend around 1.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.