The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the Euro Area fell to 0.53 in March 2019 from 0.69 in the previous month and well below market expectations of 0.66. It was the lowest reading since November 2016, as all the five components of the indicator worsened: while managers' views of the past production, their production expectations, and their assessments of both overall and export order books declined significantly, their appraisal of the stocks of finished products worsened only slightly. Business Confidence in the Euro Area averaged 0 Index Points from 1985 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1.62 Index Points in January of 2018 and a record low of -3.29 Index Points in March of 2009.
Business Confidence in Euro Area is expected to be 0.60 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Euro Area to stand at 0.99 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Business Climate Indicator is projected to trend around 0.75 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.