The Business Climate Indicator for the Euro Area dropped by 0.34 points from the previous month to -0.22 in September 2019, the lowest level since August 2013 and below market expectations of 0.11. All the components of the BCI worsened. The decline was particularly sharp in managers’ assessments of past production, export order books and overall order books. Albeit to a lesser extent, also their production expectations, as well as their views on stocks of finished products deteriorated markedly. Business Confidence in the Euro Area averaged 0 Index Points from 1985 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1.63 Index Points in January of 2018 and a record low of -3.31 Index Points in March of 2009.
Business Confidence in Euro Area is expected to be 0.19 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Euro Area to stand at 0.51 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Business Climate Indicator is projected to trend around 0.75 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.