Euro Area | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

Eurozone’s economic growth is expected to gain steam in 2017, driven by investment and exports as global demand picks up. At the same time, private consumption is set to expand at a slower pace as wage growth is likely to remain constrained in the near term while the upturn in inflation is forecast to erode household purchasing power. Still, unemployment rate is expected to reach 9.3 percent by the end of the year, with job creation significantly outpacing labour force growth. The European Central Bank is likely to start raising rates by the end of 2018. As for the bloc’s public finances, the budget deficit is expected to fall to 1.4 percent of GDP in 2017, mainly driven by lower interest payments and wage bill moderation in the public sector. The public debt should narrow to 89 percent of GDP, due to primary surpluses, steady real GDP growth, the uptick in inflation, and reduced average interest rates. This page has economic forecasts for Euro Area including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Euro Area economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.30 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 7.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.40 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 17858.90 29000 24000 29000 31000 25000 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 89 89 89 88.7 87.8 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.12 1.1 1.09 1.08 1.07 0.89 [+]
Stock Market 3543.68 3480 3450 3340 3380 2810 points [+]
Government Bond 10y -0.46 -0.46 -0.47 -0.47 -0.48 -0.55 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.90 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2 percent [+]
GDP 11602.40 12400 12600 12800 13000 14800 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2547.55 2580 2590 2600 2610 2930 EUR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 532.34 507 510 512 514 530 EUR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 38589.44 38900 39000 39100 39200 41300 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 37722.04 37800 37900 38000 38100 40200 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.30 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 7.7 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 14930.00 15100 14900 14700 14600 14200 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 154.77 154 155 155 155 161 Million [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.80 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.4 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 18.70 19.2 19 18.8 18.6 16.2 percent [+]
Productivity 103.80 105 106 107 108 115 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 100.40 110 103 114 99.3 120 Index Points [+]
Wages 1681.00 1820 1840 1860 1880 2030 EUR/Month [+]
Wage Growth 1.40 1.8 2 2.3 2.2 2.8 percent [+]
Population 339.89 340 340 341 341 346 Million [+]
Full Time Employment 112867.40 113200 113600 113800 114200 119000 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 0.40 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 57.10 57.3 57.4 57.6 57.8 60 percent [+]
Part Time Employment 31101.30 31300 31300 31400 31400 34200 Thousand [+]
Retirement Age Men 64.63 64.63 64.59 64.6 64.65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 63.94 63.94 63.88 63.94 63.88 65 [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.40 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.92 103 104 105 107 119 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.17 104 105 107 108 120 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.90 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.9 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 107.15 109 110 111 112 117 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 104.50 108 110 112 114 129 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.30 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.2 2.2 percent [+]
Import Prices 104.40 102 102 102 105 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.40 3.4 3.2 3 2.8 2.5 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 100.66 101 101 101 101 103 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 101.40 103 104 106 107 119 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.37 -0.32 -0.24 -0.16 -0.07 0.8 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 7436703.00 7620000 7750000 7850000 8016069 10900000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 10899337.00 10760000 10840000 10900000 11385370 11800000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 11566750.00 11900000 12000000 12100000 12026293 15900000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 346031.00 356000 360000 367000 346095 389000 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4232941.00 4220000 4350000 4560000 4660000 6020000 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 10743031.00 10940000 10980000 11000000 10879902 11700000 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.40 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 percent [+]
Lending Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1 percent [+]
Loan Growth 2.40 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 1.9 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 17858.90 29000 24000 29000 31000 25000 EUR Million [+]
Exports 167676.30 185000 182000 184000 207000 190000 EUR Million [+]
Imports 149817.40 156000 158000 155000 176000 165000 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 21.50 34.5 34.8 48.2 32.2 37.4 EUR Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.30 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.4 1.9 percent [+]
External Debt 13558785.12 13600000 13700000 13800000 13900000 14900000 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 15.49 60.2 15.2 54.5 26.39 41.2 EUR Billion [+]
Gold Reserves 504.77 505 505 505 505 505 Tonnes [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 89 89 89 88.7 87.8 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.50 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Spending 532.14 537 540 542 537 566 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending to GDP 47.70 49.1 48.8 48.6 48.5 46.8 percent [+]
Government Debt 9440246.00 9720000 9770000 9830000 9880000 11200000 EUR Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 0.90 0.66 0.47 0.25 0.36 1.2 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 57.30 57.3 54.1 53.7 54.5 53.1 [+]
Services PMI 54.70 54.7 53.4 52.7 54.4 53.3 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 55.70 55.7 54.6 53.9 54.2 51.9 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 1.40 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.3 2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.50 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.60 2.2 2 1.7 2.3 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.60 82.6 82.8 82.9 83 84.8 percent [+]
Changes In Inventories 7.58 7.13 7.4 7.43 7.41 7.41 EUR Billion [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 37.70 37.7 16 12 17 36 [+]
Car Registrations 809.13 798 897 904 859 948 Thousand [+]
Mining Production -8.80 -0.2 0.2 0.4 1.5 2.1 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -1.30 -1.3 -7.2 -9.2 -10 -2.4 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.10 0.1 0.2 0.6 -0.2 1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.50 2 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1394.61 1380 1390 1390 1411 1400 EUR Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1674881.00 1690000 1700000 1710000 1705635 1780000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 11.98 11.6 11.4 11.1 11 10.5 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 12993273.70 12960000 13040000 13100000 13335374 14000000 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.25 2.38 2.45 2.68 2.77 3.67 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 109.20 110 107 106 106 107 [+]
Consumer Credit 628778.08 628000 636000 647000 632808 701000 EUR Million [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 58.60 57.8 57.4 57.2 57 53.7 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 93.55 91.98 91.95 91.92 91.56 87.07 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output 3.20 0.3 0.5 0.7 1 2.3 percent [+]
Housing Index 103.75 105 106 107 108 112 Index Points [+]
Construction Pmi 53.20 52.8 52.2 52 52.6 52 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 66.40 66.4 66.4 66.4 66.4 66.4 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.30 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 42.00 42 42 42 42 42 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.80 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 percent [+]