Euro Area - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Euro Area including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Euro Area economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 8.50 8.5 8.3 8.2 8.1 7.2 percent
Inflation Rate 1.20 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.7 2.1 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade 26932.60 29000 23400 27000 30500 25000 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 86.70 88.7 88.7 88.7 88.2 87.8 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 1.18
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.08
Stock Market 3572.57
points
3223 3129 3038 2950 2621
Government Bond 10y -0.39
percent
0.05 0.11 0.17 0.24 0.38
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50
percent
2.5 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.3
GDP 11885.66
USD Billion
13600 13600 13600 14300 14800
GDP Constant Prices 2623.82
EUR Billion
2610 2628 2673 2692 2801
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 539.14
EUR Billion
544 550 552 539 578
GDP per capita 39105.31
USD
39700 39700 39700 40900 41300
GDP per capita PPP 38234.81
USD
38900 38900 38900 39500 40200
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.50
percent
8.5 8.3 8.2 8.1 7.2
Unemployed Persons 13716.00
Thousand
13600 13400 13200 13000 12100
Employed Persons 156.65
Million
158 158 159 159 164
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.10
percent
4 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.2
Youth Unemployment Rate 17.30
percent
17 16.8 16.4 16 14
Productivity 105.00
Index Points
107 108 109 110 115
Labour Costs 114.00
Index Points
112 105 116 102 120
Wage Growth 1.70
percent
2 2.2 2.5 2 2.8
Population 341.01
Million
343 343 343 344 346
Full Time Employment 114569.50
Thousand
114400 114600 115000 115400 119000
Employment Change 0.30
percent
0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6
Labor Force Participation Rate 57.30
percent
57.9 58 58 58.4 60
Part Time Employment 31347.80
Thousand
31500 31600 32100 32400 34200
Retirement Age Men 64.36
64.36 64.36 64.36 64.5 64.75
Retirement Age Women 63.96
63.96 63.96 63.96 64.2 64.5
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.20
percent
1.4 1.5 1.8 1.7 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.31
Index Points
103 104 105 105 109
Core Consumer Prices 103.01
Index Points
104 104 104 104 108
Core Inflation Rate 0.70
percent
1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.9
GDP Deflator 108.55
Index Points
110 110 111 112 116
Producer Prices 102.60
Index Points
102 103 104 105 109
Producer Prices Change 2.10
percent
1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2
Import Prices 100.00
Index Points
102 103 105 105 108
Food Inflation 1.90
percent
1.1 1.4 1.5 2 2
CPI Housing Utilities 102.20
Index Points
102 102 104 104 108
CPI Transportation 104.13
Index Points
103 103 105 105 109
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.35
percent
-0.35 -0.35 -0.35 -0.1 0.4
Money Supply M1 7847027.00
EUR Million
8120000 8240000 8480000 8660000 10900000
Money Supply M2 11286499.00
EUR Million
11800000 12000000 12200000 12400000 13800000
Money Supply M3 11937261.00
EUR Million
12500000 12900000 13600000 13900000 15900000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 64.58
USD Billion
70 72 74 78 97
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4552564.00
EUR Million
4780000 4840000 4950000 5080000 6020000
Loans to Private Sector 10945273.00
EUR Million
11140000 11170000 11200000 11270000 11700000
Deposit Interest Rate -0.40
percent
-0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.15 0.35
Lending Rate 0.25
percent
0.25 0.25 0.25 0.5 1
Loan Growth 3.00
percent
3 3.2 3.4 3.2 2.8
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 26932.60
EUR Million
29000 23400 27000 30500 25000
Exports 199939.90
EUR Million
189000 184500 186000 209000 190000
Imports 173007.30
EUR Million
160000 161100 159000 178500 165000
Current Account 40.55
EUR Billion
36.2 45.4 45.1 44.2 37.4
Current Account to GDP 3.50
percent
2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.9
External Debt 13514526.34
EUR Million
14400000 14500000 14600000 14700000 15400000
Capital Flows 85.70
EUR Billion
62.3 18.9 48.9 34.2 41.2
Gold Reserves 504.77
Tonnes
505 505 505 505 505
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 86.70
percent
88.7 88.7 88.7 88.2 87.8
Government Budget -0.90
percent of GDP
-1 -1 -1 -0.8 -0.6
Government Spending 538.81
EUR Billion
541 542 552 546 578
Government Spending to GDP 47.10
percent
46.8 46.8 46.8 46.5 46.8
Government Debt 9685501.30
EUR Million
9890000 9890000 9890000 10500000 11500000
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 1.35
Index Points
1.04 0.91 1.11 1.25 1
Manufacturing PMI 56.20
54.8 55.4 57.9 57.4 53.1
Services PMI 54.70
Index Points
53.8 54.7 56.4 56.1 53.3
Composite Pmi 55.10
Index Points
54.5 55.2 57.5 57 52.7
Industrial Production 3.00
percent
3.2 3.4 2.8 2.6 2.4
Industrial Production Mom 0.50
percent
-0.3 -0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3
Manufacturing Production 2.30
percent
3.4 3.2 3.8 3.6 3.9
Capacity Utilization 84.40
percent
84.4 84.5 84.5 84.1 84.8
Changes In Inventories 7.19
EUR Billion
6.9 9.4 6.8 4.5 6
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 2.40
8.9 16.8 29.1 28.7 32
Car Registrations 927.41
Thousand
925 942 962 917 992
Mining Production 1.70
percent
2 1.9 1.6 1.4 2.1
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 0.40
Index Points
-2.2 -2.6 -2.2 -1.8 -6.6
Retail Sales MoM 0.10
percent
0.4 0.9 -0.4 0.5 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 0.80
percent
2.3 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.7
Consumer Spending 1411.26
EUR Billion
1423 1428 1445 1434 1514
Disposable Personal Income 1733153.00
EUR Million
1760000 1780000 1810000 1830000 1980000
Personal Savings 12.21
percent
11 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.5
Private Sector Credit 13192284.00
EUR Million
13400000 13600000 13800000 14000000 15400000
Bank Lending Rate 2.12
percent
2.12 2.12 2.12 2.37 2.87
Economic Optimism Index 112.70
111 109 110 110 108
Consumer Credit 661169.72
EUR Million
686000 692000 705000 709000 732000
Households Debt To Gdp 57.90
percent of GDP
57 57 57 55 53.7
Households Debt To Income 93.29
percent
90.5 90.5 90.5 88.9 87.1
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 16.10
Index Points
15.8 16.7 18 17.2 15
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Construction Output 0.80
percent
4.5 3.6 1.5 2.6 2.2
Housing Index 109.42
Index Points
111 112 113 114 121
Construction Pmi 52.50
53.4 54.2 55.6 55.1 52.5
Home Ownership Rate 66.40
percent
66 66 66 65.9 65.5
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 23.30
percent
23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3
Personal Income Tax Rate 41.50
percent
41.5 41.5 41.5 41.5 41.5
Sales Tax Rate 20.80
percent
20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8