Euro Area | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

Eurozone’s economic growth is expected to gain steam in 2017, driven by investment and exports as global demand picks up. At the same time, private consumption is set to expand at a slower pace as wage growth is likely to remain constrained in the near term while the upturn in inflation is forecast to erode household purchasing power. Still, unemployment rate is expected to reach 9.3 percent by the end of the year, with job creation significantly outpacing labour force growth. The European Central Bank is likely to start raising rates by the end of 2018. As for the bloc’s public finances, the budget deficit is expected to fall to 1.4 percent of GDP in 2017, mainly driven by lower interest payments and wage bill moderation in the public sector. The public debt should narrow to 89 percent of GDP, due to primary surpluses, steady real GDP growth, the uptick in inflation, and reduced average interest rates. This page has economic forecasts for Euro Area including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Euro Area economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.10 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 7.9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.30 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 26587.50 24000 29000 31000 29000 25000 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 89 89 88.7 88.7 87.8 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Stock Market 3446.03 3440 3410 3370 3340 2960 points [+]
Currency 1.18 1.12 1.11 1.1 1.08 0.96 [+]
Government Bond 10y -0.45 -0.4 -0.41 -0.41 -0.42 -0.46 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.20 2 1.9 1.9 1.9 2 percent [+]
GDP 11885.66 12800 12800 13600 13600 14800 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2562.91 2590 2600 2610 2620 2930 EUR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 532.34 542 544 546 548 567 EUR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 39105.31 39100 39100 39700 39700 41300 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38234.81 38000 38000 38900 38900 40200 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.10 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 7.9 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 14613.00 14800 14700 14600 14500 14200 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 154.77 156 156 157 158 162 Million [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.80 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.4 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 18.70 18.2 18 17.8 17.6 15.1 percent [+]
Productivity 103.80 106 107 108 109 115 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 100.40 103 114 99.3 111 120 Index Points [+]
Wages 1681.00 1840 1860 1880 1900 2030 EUR/Month [+]
Wage Growth 1.40 2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.8 percent [+]
Population 341.01 341 341 343 343 346 Million [+]
Employment Change 0.40 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 111779.20 113600 113800 114200 114400 119000 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 57.10 57.4 57.6 57.8 57.9 60 percent [+]
Part Time Employment 31212.80 31300 31400 31400 31500 34200 Thousand [+]
Retirement Age Men 64.54 64.54 64.54 64.7 64.7 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 64.32 64.32 64.32 64.5 64.5 65 [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.30 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.50 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.44 104 105 107 109 121 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.76 105 107 108 110 125 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.20 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.9 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 107.15 110 111 112 113 122 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 104.10 107 109 111 113 129 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.50 3.9 3.6 3.2 3 2.2 percent [+]
Import Prices 103.50 102 102 104 104 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.10 2.7 3 2.8 2.7 2.5 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 100.59 104 106 108 110 125 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 101.90 103 105 107 109 121 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.38 -0.24 -0.16 -0.07 -0.02 0.8 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 7531513.00 7750000 7850000 7980000 8120000 10900000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 10986252.00 11240000 11400000 11600000 11800000 13800000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 11649911.00 11900000 12100000 12300000 12500000 15900000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 346031.00 360000 364000 366000 369000 389000 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4248280.00 4350000 4560000 4660000 4780000 6020000 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 10725036.00 10980000 11000000 11070000 11140000 11700000 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.40 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 percent [+]
Lending Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1 percent [+]
Loan Growth 2.60 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.2 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 26587.50 24000 29000 31000 29000 25000 EUR Million [+]
Exports 187244.20 182000 184000 207000 189000 190000 EUR Million [+]
Imports 160656.70 158000 155000 176000 160000 165000 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 28.10 34.8 48.2 32.2 32.4 37.4 EUR Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.30 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.4 1.9 percent [+]
External Debt 13959630.30 13700000 13800000 13900000 14000000 14900000 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 95.70 15.2 54.5 36.8 62.3 41.2 EUR Billion [+]
Gold Reserves 504.77 505 505 505 505 505 Tonnes [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 89 89 88.7 88.7 87.8 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.50 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Spending 532.14 540 542 544 546 566 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending to GDP 47.70 47.5 47.5 47.3 47.3 46.8 percent [+]
Government Debt 9588159.00 9770000 9830000 9880000 9890000 11200000 EUR Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Services PMI 55.40 54.4 53.7 54.4 54.2 53.3 Index Points [+]
Business Confidence 1.05 0.86 0.75 0.78 0.81 1 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 56.60 54.1 53.7 54.5 54.8 53.1 [+]
Composite Pmi 55.70 54.6 53.9 54.2 58.8 51.9 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 2.60 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.2 2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.60 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.40 2 1.7 2.3 2.4 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 83.20 82.8 82.9 83 83.1 84.8 percent [+]
Changes In Inventories 7.58 7.4 7.43 7.41 7.4 7.41 EUR Billion [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 35.60 26 22 25 24 32 [+]
Car Registrations 913.08 897 904 908 871 948 Thousand [+]
Mining Production 2.50 0.2 0.4 1.5 2 2.1 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Retail Sales MoM 0.50 0.2 0.6 -0.2 0.2 1 percent [+]
Consumer Confidence -1.70 -4.2 -3.6 -2.2 -2 -6.3 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.10 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1394.61 1430 1440 1450 1460 1600 EUR Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1693338.00 1700000 1710000 1720000 1730000 1820000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 12.31 11.4 11.1 11 11 10.5 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 12985280.80 13440000 13600000 13800000 13900000 15400000 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.19 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.2 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 636580.71 656000 677000 694000 696000 717000 EUR Million [+]
Economic Optimism Index 111.20 107 106 106 107 107 [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 58.60 58.2 58.2 57 57 53.7 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 93.55 91.9 91.9 90.5 90.5 87.1 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Construction Output 3.40 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.3 percent [+]
Housing Index 105.45 106 107 108 109 117 Index Points [+]
Construction Pmi 53.10 52.2 52 52.6 52.7 52 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 66.40 66.2 66.2 66 66 65.9 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Personal Income Tax Rate 42.00 42 42 42 42 42 percent [+]
Corporate Tax Rate 24.30 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.80 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 percent [+]