News

ECB Hikes Rates for First Time Since 2023
The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its June 2026 meeting, the first increase since 2023, as policymakers emphasized their commitment to anchoring inflation at the 2% medium-term target. The move follows rising energy costs and persistent inflation risks driven by the Iran conflict and disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The ECB stated that the Middle East war is amplifying inflationary pressures, and the rate increase is supported across scenarios assessing its impact on the euro area’s outlook. The ECB also revised its inflation forecasts upward, now expecting headline inflation to reach 3.0% in 2026 (up from 2.6%) and 2.3% in 2027 (up from 2.0%). Core inflation was also raised to 2.5% for both 2026 and 2027, from previous estimates of 2.3% and 2.2%, respectively. For economic growth, the ECB slightly lowered its Eurozone GDP projections, forecasting expansion of 0.8% in 2026 (down from 0.9%) and 1.2% in 2027 (down from 1.3%).
Published on 2026-06-11

ECB Hikes Rates for First Time Since 2023
The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its June 2026 meeting, the first increase since 2023, as policymakers reaffirmed their commitment to steering monetary policy to ensure inflation stabilizes at its 2% medium-term target. The decision comes amid surging energy costs and the growing risk of persistent inflation, fueled by the conflict with Iran and disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The ECB noted that the Middle East war is intensifying inflationary pressures, and the rate hike remains justified across various scenarios assessing how the shock could evolve and impact the euro area’s medium-term outlook.
Published on 2026-06-11

ECB Set to Raise Interest Rates for 1st Time Since 2023
The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25bps at its June 2026 meeting as policymakers respond to surging energy costs and the growing risk of persistent inflation amid the conflict with Iran and disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The move would mark the ECB's first rate increase since 2023, lifting the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. The expected hike comes after euro area inflation accelerated to 3.2% in May, remaining well above the ECB's 2% target. Core inflation also rose to 2.5% from 2.2% in April. Alongside the rate decision, the ECB will release updated macroeconomic projections, with experts anticipating significant upward revisions to inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Investors will closely parse President Lagarde’s press conference for clues on future policy moves. Markets currently expect at least one more rate hike this year, though uncertainty lingers after data revealed the eurozone economy contracted in Q1 2026.
Published on 2026-06-11

ECB Set to Raise Interest Rates for 1st Time Since 2023
The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25bps at its June 2026 meeting as policymakers respond to surging energy costs and the growing risk of persistent inflation amid the conflict with Iran and disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The move would mark the ECB's first rate increase since 2023, lifting the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. The expected hike comes after euro area inflation accelerated to 3.2% in May, remaining well above the ECB's 2% target. Core inflation also rose to 2.5% from 2.2% in April. Alongside the rate decision, the ECB will release updated macroeconomic projections, with experts anticipating significant upward revisions to inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Investors will closely parse President Lagarde’s press conference for clues on future policy moves. Markets currently price in two to three rate hikes this year, though uncertainty lingers after data revealed the eurozone economy contracted in Q1 2026.
Published on 2026-06-11

ECB Set to Raise Interest Rates
The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in its June 2026 meeting as policymakers confront soaring energy costs and the prospect of sustained inflation in the coming months, fueled by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This move, the first in a year, follows an acceleration in eurozone inflation, with consumer prices rising 3.2% in May, up from 3% in April and well above the ECB’s 2% target. Core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, also climbed to 2.5% from 2.2% in April. Alongside the rate decision, the ECB will release updated macroeconomic projections, with experts anticipating significant upward revisions to inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Investors will closely parse President Lagarde’s press conference for clues on future policy moves. Markets currently price in two to three rate hikes this year, though uncertainty lingers after data revealed the eurozone economy contracted in Q1 2026.
Published on 2026-06-11

ECB Set to Raise Interest Rates
The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25bps at its June 2026 meeting as policymakers respond to surging energy costs and the growing risk of persistent inflation amid the conflict with Iran and disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The move would mark the ECB's first rate increase since 2023, lifting the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. The expected hike comes after euro area inflation accelerated to 3.2% in May, remaining well above the ECB's 2% target. Core inflation also rose to 2.5% from 2.2% in April. Alongside the rate decision, the ECB will release updated macroeconomic projections, with experts anticipating significant upward revisions to inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Investors will closely parse President Lagarde’s press conference for clues on future policy moves. Markets currently price in two to three rate hikes this year, though uncertainty lingers after data revealed the eurozone economy contracted in Q1 2026.
Published on 2026-06-11

ECB Set to Raise Interest Rates
The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in its June 2026 meeting as policymakers confront soaring energy costs and the prospect of sustained inflation in the coming months, fueled by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This move, the first in a year, follows an acceleration in eurozone inflation, with consumer prices rising 3.2% in May, up from 3% in April and well above the ECB’s 2% target. Core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, also climbed to 2.5% from 2.2% in April. Alongside the rate decision, the ECB will release updated macroeconomic projections, with experts anticipating significant upward revisions to inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Investors will closely parse President Lagarde’s press conference for clues on future policy moves. Markets currently price in two to three rate hikes this year, though uncertainty lingers after data revealed the eurozone economy contracted in Q1 2026.
Published on 2026-06-11

ECB Officials Were Open to a Rate Rise in April: Minutes
A number of ECB members viewed the April decision to keep rates unchanged as a close call and indicated they would have supported a rate hike had it been proposed, according to the latest ECB meeting minutes. Policymakers warned that the energy-driven supply shock was proving more persistent than previously expected, increasing the risk of broader and more entrenched inflationary pressures, while the war in the Middle East was seen as a key source of uncertainty for both inflation and growth. Members also acknowledged the increasingly difficult trade-off facing monetary policy, as slowing economic activity and weakening confidence coincided with rising inflation risks. Several officials noted that even with two projected rate hikes this year, inflation was still expected to remain slightly above the ECB’s target. While rates were ultimately left unchanged in April, the ECB reiterated its readiness to tighten policy further if needed.
Published on 2026-05-28

ECB Officials Were Open to a Rate Rise in April: Minutes
A number of ECB members viewed the April decision to keep rates unchanged as a close call and indicated they would have supported a rate hike had it been proposed, according to the latest ECB meeting minutes. Policymakers warned that the energy-driven supply shock was proving more persistent than previously expected, increasing the risk of broader and more entrenched inflationary pressures, while the war in the Middle East was seen as a key source of uncertainty for both inflation and growth. Members also acknowledged the increasingly difficult trade-off facing monetary policy, as slowing economic activity and weakening confidence coincided with rising inflation risks. Several officials noted that even with two projected rate hikes this year, inflation was still expected to remain slightly above the ECB’s target. Investors expect the ECB to raise its key rates by 25 basis points on June 11, with at least one additional hike priced in by the end of the year.
Published on 2026-05-28

ECB Officials Were Open to a Rate Rise in April: Minutes
A number of ECB members viewed the April decision to keep rates unchanged as a close call and indicated they would have supported a rate hike had it been proposed, according to the latest ECB meeting minutes. Policymakers warned that the energy-driven supply shock was proving more persistent than previously expected, increasing the risk of broader and more entrenched inflationary pressures, while the war in the Middle East was seen as a key source of uncertainty for both inflation and growth. Members also acknowledged the increasingly difficult trade-off facing monetary policy, as slowing economic activity and weakening confidence coincided with rising inflation risks. Several officials noted that even with two projected rate hikes this year, inflation was still expected to remain slightly above the ECB’s target. Investors expect the ECB to raise its key rates by 25 basis points on June 11, with at least one additional hike priced in by the end of the year.
Published on 2026-05-28

ECB Holds Rates Steady as Iran War Raises Inflation Risks
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility at 2.0%, as policymakers adopted a cautious stance, assessing the impact of the Iran war on inflation and growth. While the ECB remains well-positioned to navigate uncertainty, officials noted that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified. They emphasized that longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored, though shorter-term expectations have risen significantly. At the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the decision to hold rates was unanimous, though policymakers debated various options, including a possible hike. She added that the discussion centered on the fact that the ECB is "certainly moving away" from its baseline scenario.
Published on 2026-04-30

ECB Holds Rates Steady as Iran War Raises Inflation Risks
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility at 2.0%, as policymakers adopted a cautious stance, assessing the impact of the Iran war on inflation and growth. While the ECB remains well-positioned to navigate uncertainty, officials noted that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified. They emphasized that longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored, though shorter-term expectations have risen significantly. At the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the decision to hold rates was unanimous, though policymakers debated various options, including a possible hike. She added that the discussion centered on the fact that the ECB is "certainly moving away" from its baseline scenario.
Published on 2026-04-30

ECB Holds Rates Steady as Iran War Raises Inflation Risks
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility at 2.0%, as policymakers adopted a cautious stance, assessing the impact of the Iran war on inflation and growth. While the ECB remains well-positioned to navigate uncertainty, officials noted that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified. They emphasized that longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored, though shorter-term expectations have risen significantly. The war’s impact on medium-term inflation and economic activity will depend on the duration and intensity of the energy price shock, as well as its indirect and second-round effects. The longer the conflict persists and energy prices stay elevated, the greater the likely impact on broader inflation and the economy.
Published on 2026-04-30

ECB to Hold Rates Amid Iran War Impact
The European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its April meeting, as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach to gauge the impact of the Iran war on inflation and economic growth. ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Isabel Schnabel have signaled the bank will take its time before deciding on further tightening, with investors closely watching the press conference for any additional cues. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.6% in March, the highest since July 2024, driven by rising energy costs. Despite the cautious stance, markets are fully pricing in three ECB rate hikes in 2026, with the first potentially arriving as early as June.
Published on 2026-04-30

ECB to Hold Rates in April Amid Iran War Impact
The European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its April meeting, as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach to gauge the impact of the Iran war on inflation and economic growth. ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Isabel Schnabel have signaled the bank will take its time before deciding on further tightening, with investors closely watching the press conference for any additional cues. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.6% in March, the highest since July 2024, driven by rising energy costs. Despite the cautious stance, markets are fully pricing in three ECB rate hikes in 2026, with the first potentially arriving as early as June.
Published on 2026-04-30

ECB Signals No Fixed Rate Path Amid Uncertainty
ECB policymakers acknowledged that the war in the Middle East had made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for growth, although the central bank was well positioned to navigate this uncertainty, minutes from the March ECB meeting showed. The environment could change rapidly, and uncertainty regarding both the war and its economic impact was likely to remain very high in the future, but it was also possible that this uncertainty might be resolved over the coming weeks or months. Although the near-term inflation outlook had been revised up substantially, inflation was still seen to stabilise around the 2% target over the medium term. Against this background, keeping rates unchanged in March while retaining optionality for future meetings was a prudent approach. The meeting-by-meeting approach without any pre-commitment to a particular rate path was especially helpful at this juncture.
Published on 2026-04-16

ECB Signals No Fixed Rate Path Amid Uncertainty
ECB policymakers acknowledged that the war in the Middle East had made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for growth, although the central bank was well positioned to navigate this uncertainty, minutes from the March ECB meeting showed. The environment could change rapidly, and uncertainty regarding both the war and its economic impact was likely to remain very high in the future, but it was also possible that this uncertainty might be resolved over the coming weeks or months. Although the near-term inflation outlook had been revised up substantially, inflation was still seen to stabilise around the 2% target over the medium term. Against this background, keeping rates unchanged in March while retaining optionality for future meetings was a prudent approach. The meeting-by-meeting approach without any pre-commitment to a particular rate path was especially helpful at this juncture.
Published on 2026-04-16

ECB Acknowledges Uncertain Outlook, Signals No Fixed Rate Path
ECB policymakers acknowledged that the war in the Middle East had made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for growth, although the central bank was well positioned to navigate this uncertainty, minutes from the March ECB meeting showed. The environment could change rapidly, and uncertainty regarding both the war and its economic impact was likely to remain very high in the future, but it was also possible that this uncertainty might be resolved over the coming weeks or months. Although the near-term inflation outlook had been revised up substantially, inflation was still seen to stabilise around the 2% target over the medium term. Against this background, keeping rates unchanged in March while retaining optionality for future meetings was a prudent approach. The meeting-by-meeting approach without any pre-commitment to a particular rate path was especially helpful at this juncture.
Published on 2026-04-16

ECB Holds Rates, Raises Inflation Forecasts
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at its March 2026 meeting, reaffirming its commitment to stabilizing inflation at 2% in the medium term. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, with the deposit facility at 2.0% and marginal lending rate at 2.4%. Policymakers highlighted that the Middle East war has significantly increased uncertainty, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for growth. The ECB raised its inflation forecasts, particularly for 2026, due to higher energy prices driven by the Middle East war. Headline inflation is now projected at 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028. Core inflation projections were also increased, while growth forecasts were cut, especially for 2026, as the war’s impact on commodity markets, real incomes, and confidence takes its toll. The ECB expects GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028.
Published on 2026-03-19

ECB Holds Rates, Raises Inflation Forecasts
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at its March 2026 meeting, reaffirming its commitment to stabilizing inflation at 2% in the medium term. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, with the deposit facility at 2.0% and marginal lending rate at 2.4%. Policymakers highlighted that the Middle East war has significantly increased uncertainty, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for growth. The ECB raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6%, with 2027 at 2.0% and 2028 at 2.1%, citing elevated energy prices. Core inflation projections were also revised upward, while growth forecasts were slashed, particularly for 2026, due to the war’s global impact on commodity markets, real incomes, and confidence. The ECB now expects GDP growth of just 0.9% in 2026, followed by 1.3% in 2027 and 1.4% in 2028.
Published on 2026-03-19