Gross domestic product increased 1 percent from the third quarter, when it gained 0.5 percent, Statistics New Zealand said in Wellington today. The median estimate of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.8 percent expansion. The economy grew 3.7 percent from a year earlier.
The fastest annual growth since mid-2004 justifies Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard's decision to leave interest rates at a record-high 8.25 percent to combat inflation in the $104 billion economy. Bollard signaled today that he won't cut borrowing costs this year amid global market turmoil and as the property market cools and a drought cuts farm production.
Consumer confidence slumped to a 10-year low in the first quarter, according to a survey published on March 26 by Westpac Banking Corp. and McDermott Miller Ltd. Finance Minister Michael Cullen last week said he couldn't rule out the possibility the economy may slip into a recession.
Seven of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News say Bollard will cut interest rates this year. Eight expect no change until 2009. The central bank reviews the official cash rate on April 24.
The benchmark official cash rate is at a ``roughly appropriate level at the moment,'' Bollard told a Euromoney conference in Sydney today. The bank expects annual inflation to stay above the 1 percent-to-3 percent range Bollard targets until mid-2009. Consumer prices rose 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier.
Economic growth in the fourth quarter was stoked by commercial building, dairy exports and production from the Tui oil field, which began output in late July.
Overseas shipments of goods and services rose 5.4 percent in the quarter, led by dairy products and oil, the statistics agency said. Imports volumes rose 4.3 percent.
Dairy shipments, which make up one-fifth of the nation's exports, rose after a late start to the season slowed third-quarter sales. Auckland-based Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world's biggest dairy exporter, said on Jan. 29 that sales in the six months through November were buoyed by rising milk production and higher prices.
Commercial construction rose 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter and manufacturing increased, led by dairy and meat processing. Business investment surged 6.2 percent as companies purchased plant and machinery to relieve capacity constraints.
Farm production increased, led by output from dairy farms. Mining, forestry and fishing rose 7.9 percent.
Residential construction fell 1.6 percent. Demand for property is declining amid rising home-loan interest rates and a slump in immigration to the lowest in more than six years. House sales dropped 32 percent in February from a year earlier, according to Real Estate Institute figures.
Consumer spending, which makes up 60 percent of the economy, rose 0.5 percent from the third quarter, when it gained 0.4 percent. Spending on alcohol, food and other so-called non-durable goods fell 1.4 percent. Purchases of durable items rose 1.5 percent, led mostly by clothing and recreation goods.
New Zealanders are cutting back on purchases of cars, computers and appliances as they pay higher interest costs on their mortgages and credit cards. The lending rate on a two-year fixed home loan was 9.5 percent in January compared with 8.2 percent a year earlier.