Retail sales in New Zealand rose 1.1 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2018, following an upwardly revised 0.3 percent growth in the previous quarter and easily beating market expectations of 0.4 percent. Hardware, building, and garden supplies had the largest increase (4.7 percent vs 0.6 percent in Q1), followed by department stores (2.8 percent vs unchanged), electrical and electronic goods (2 percent vs 4.1 percent) and food and beverage services (1.7 percent vs -1 percent). In contrast, sales at supermarket and grocery stores dropped 1.1 percent in the second quarter, after an increase of 1 percent in the previous period; and fuel trade declined 0.7 percent, its fourth consecutive quarterly fall. Year-on-year, retail sales grew 3.1 percent in the three months to June, following a 2.8 percent rise in the previous period. Retail Sales MoM in New Zealand averaged 0.74 percent from 1995 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in the third quarter of 2004 and a record low of -2.80 percent in the first quarter of 2009.
Retail Sales MoM in New Zealand is expected to be 0.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in New Zealand to stand at 1.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Retail Sales QoQ is projected to trend around 1.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.