Retail sales in New Zealand showed no growth in the three months to September 2018, following a 1.1 percent gain in the previous quarter and well below market expectations of 1 percent. Department stores had the largest increase (7.4 percent vs 3.2 percent in Q2), followed by electrical & electronic goods (3.2 percent vs 2.1 percent); and fuel trade rebounded 0.5 percent in the third quarter, after four consecutive falls. On the other hand, retail trade slowed for hardware, building, & garden supplies (1 percent vs 4.5 percent) and declined 3.3 percent for food & beverage services, after a 0.9 percent rise in the second quarter; such as pharmaceutical & other store-based retailing (-3.1 percent vs 0.4 percent). Year-on-year, retail sales grew 2.7 percent in the three months to September, following a 3.1 percent rise in the previous period. Retail Sales MoM in New Zealand averaged 0.73 percent from 1995 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in the third quarter of 2004 and a record low of -2.80 percent in the first quarter of 2009.
Retail Sales MoM in New Zealand is expected to be 1.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in New Zealand to stand at 1.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Retail Sales QoQ is projected to trend around 1.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.