The Westpac-McDermott Miller consumer confidence index in New Zealand edged down to 103.1 in the third quarter of 2019, the lowest in seven years and compared to market expectations of 104, as global trade policy and a recent 50bps rate cut from the RBNZ particularly weighed on confidence for the 5-year economic outlook (down 13 points to -1.1). In addition, the 1-year economic outlook also fell (down 4.6 points to -9.2). On the bright side, the expected financial situation sub-index soared 16.4 points to 13.2 as households reacted positively to a fall in borrowing rates. Nonetheless, the ‘good time to buy’ sub-index declined 2.8 points to 15.1, hinting that consumers remain hesitant to spend and rather took advantage of looser monetary policy to pay down debt. Consumer Confidence in New Zealand averaged 111.10 Index Points from 1988 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 130.90 Index Points in the second quarter of 1994 and a record low of 79.10 Index Points in the first quarter of 1991.
Consumer Confidence in New Zealand is expected to be 102.50 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in New Zealand to stand at 107.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Consumer Confidence is projected to trend around 106.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.