The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers expect inflation to slow to 2.34% over the next two years in Q3 2026, down from 2.53% in the previous period, marking the lowest reading since Q4 2025. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations also moderated to 2.60%, down from 3.41% in Q1. Conversely, longer-term expectations accelerated, with five-year inflation forecasts rising to 2.31% from 2.22%, while ten-year expectations edged up to 2.20% from 2.19%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to rise to 2.73% from 2.34% by the end of the September quarter and further to 3.21% over the next year. The survey was conducted after the RBNZ’s monetary policy decision in May 2026. source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Inflation Expectations in New Zealand decreased to 2.34 percent in the third quarter of 2026 from 2.53 percent in the second quarter of 2026. Inflation Expectations in New Zealand averaged 2.52 percent from 1987 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 8.30 percent in the third quarter of 1987 and a record low of 1.24 percent in the second quarter of 2020. This page provides - New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. New Zealand Business 2-Year Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on August of 2026.

Inflation Expectations in New Zealand decreased to 2.34 percent in the third quarter of 2026 from 2.53 percent in the second quarter of 2026. Inflation Expectations in New Zealand is expected to be 2.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the New Zealand Business 2-Year Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2027 and 1.90 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-05-13 03:00 AM
Business Inflation Expectations
Q2 2.53% 2.37% 1.7%
2026-08-13 03:00 AM
Business Inflation Expectations
Q3 2.34% 2.53% 2.7%
2026-11-17 02:00 AM
Business Inflation Expectations
Q4 2.34% 3.2%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
ANZ Commodity Prices YoY 0.50 2.70 percent Jul 2026
CPI 1359.00 1339.00 points Jun 2026
Core Consumer Prices 1346.00 1336.00 points Jun 2026
Core Inflation Rate 3.20 3.20 percent Jun 2026
CPI Housing Utilities 1479.00 1463.00 points Jun 2026
CPI Transportation 1384.00 1306.00 points Jun 2026
Export Prices 1613.00 1658.00 points Mar 2026
Export Prices -2.70 5.30 percent Mar 2026
Food Inflation YoY 1.90 2.50 percent Jul 2026
GDP Deflator 1563.00 1556.00 points Mar 2026
Import Prices 1034.00 1041.00 points Mar 2026
Import Prices -0.70 1.50 percent Mar 2026
Business Inflation Expectations 2.34 2.53 percent Sep 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 4.10 3.10 percent Jun 2026
Inflation Rate QoQ 1.50 0.90 percent Jun 2026
Input Producer Prices 1536.00 1493.00 points Jun 2026
PPI Input 2.90 1.40 percent Jun 2026
PPI Output 1.60 0.80 percent Jun 2026
Producer Prices 1530.00 1506.00 points Jun 2026
Producer Prices Change 3.20 2.20 percent Jun 2026


New Zealand Business 2-Year Inflation Expectations
In New Zealand, business inflation expectations refer to two-year inflation forecast. Two years is seen as the timeframe when any central bank monetary policy action will filter through to prices.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
2.34 2.53 8.30 1.24 1987 - 2026 percent Quarterly
NSA

News Stream
New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Outlook Falls to 2.34%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers expect inflation to slow to 2.34% over the next two years in Q3 2026, down from 2.53% in the previous period, marking the lowest reading since Q4 2025. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations also moderated to 2.60%, down from 3.41% in Q1. Conversely, longer-term expectations accelerated, with five-year inflation forecasts rising to 2.31% from 2.22%, while ten-year expectations edged up to 2.20% from 2.19%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to rise to 2.73% from 2.34% by the end of the September quarter and further to 3.21% over the next year. The survey was conducted after the RBNZ’s monetary policy decision in May 2026.
2026-08-13
New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Outlook Climbs to 2.53%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.53% over the next two years in Q2 2026, up from 2.37% in the previous period, marking the highest reading since Q4 2023. This comes as rising fuel prices are expected to drive broader inflation pressures across the economy. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations also climbed to 3.41%, the highest in over two years, up from 2.59% in Q1. In contrast, longer-term expectations eased, with five-year inflation forecasts falling to 2.22% from 2.31%, and ten-year expectations declining to 2.19% from 2.30%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to rise to 2.34% from 2.25% by the end of the June quarter, and to increase further to 3.01% over the next year. The update comes ahead of the RBNZ’s monetary policy decision in May 2026.
2026-05-13
New Zealand Q1 Inflation Outlook Highest in 2 Years
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.37% for the next two years in Q1 2026, the highest reading since Q1 2024 and up from 2.28% in the previous quarter. One-year inflation expectations also rose to 2.59% from 2.39%, marking the highest in seven quarters. Additionally, longer-term projections showed that five-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 2.31% from 2.22%, and ten year expectations went up to 2.3% from 2.18%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to stand at 2.25% by the end of March 2026, unchanged from the previous three-month period. The adjustment follows the RBNZ’s recent decision to cut the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.25% on 26 November 2025.
2026-02-13