The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.28% for the next two years in Q4 2025, unchanged from the previous three-month period. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations edged up slightly to 2.39% from 2.37%, suggesting that price pressures are expected to stay contained in the near term. Longer-term views were mixed, with five-year-ahead inflation expectations easing to 2.22% from 2.26%, while ten-year expectations inched higher to 2.18% from 2.15%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents now expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to stand at 2.25% by the end of December 2025, notably lower than the 3.02% forecast in the previous quarter, before rising modestly to 2.31% by September 2026. The adjustment follows the RBNZ’s recent decision to cut the OCR by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025. source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Inflation Expectations in New Zealand remained unchanged at 2.28 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 2.28 percent in the third quarter of 2025. Inflation Expectations in New Zealand averaged 2.52 percent from 1987 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 8.30 percent in the third quarter of 1987 and a record low of 1.24 percent in the second quarter of 2020. This page provides - New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. New Zealand Business 2-Year Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2026.

Inflation Expectations in New Zealand remained unchanged at 2.28 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 2.28 percent in the third quarter of 2025. Inflation Expectations in New Zealand is expected to be 2.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the New Zealand Business 2-Year Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 1.70 percent in 2026 and 1.60 percent in 2027, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2025-08-07 03:00 AM
Business Inflation Expectations
Q3 2.28% 2.29% 1.8%
2025-11-11 02:00 AM
Business Inflation Expectations
Q4 2.28% 2.28% 2.5%
2026-02-13 02:30 AM
Business Inflation Expectations
Q1 2.28% 1.7%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
ANZ Commodity Prices YoY -2.30 -2.40 percent Jan 2026
CPI 1327.00 1319.00 points Dec 2025
Core Consumer Prices 1325.00 1317.00 points Dec 2025
Core Inflation Rate 3.20 3.10 percent Dec 2025
CPI Housing Utilities 1454.00 1447.00 points Dec 2025
CPI Transportation 1287.00 1258.00 points Dec 2025
Export Prices 1575.00 1601.00 points Sep 2025
Export Prices -1.60 0.30 percent Sep 2025
Food Inflation YoY 4.00 4.40 percent Dec 2025
GDP Deflator 1541.00 1536.00 points Sep 2025
Import Prices 1026.00 1021.00 points Sep 2025
Import Prices 0.50 -3.70 percent Sep 2025
Business Inflation Expectations 2.28 2.28 percent Dec 2025
Inflation Rate YoY 3.10 3.00 percent Dec 2025
Inflation Rate 0.60 1.00 percent Dec 2025
Input Producer Prices 1479.00 1476.00 points Sep 2025
PPI Input 0.20 0.60 percent Sep 2025
PPI Output 0.60 0.60 percent Sep 2025
Producer Prices 1492.00 1483.00 points Sep 2025
Producer Prices Change 3.30 4.20 percent Sep 2025


New Zealand Business 2-Year Inflation Expectations
In New Zealand, business inflation expectations refer to two-year inflation forecast. Two years is seen as the timeframe when any central bank monetary policy action will filter through to prices.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
2.28 2.28 8.30 1.24 1987 - 2025 percent Quarterly
NSA

News Stream
New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Outlook Steady at 2.28%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.28% for the next two years in Q4 2025, unchanged from the previous three-month period. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations edged up slightly to 2.39% from 2.37%, suggesting that price pressures are expected to stay contained in the near term. Longer-term views were mixed, with five-year-ahead inflation expectations easing to 2.22% from 2.26%, while ten-year expectations inched higher to 2.18% from 2.15%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents now expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to stand at 2.25% by the end of December 2025, notably lower than the 3.02% forecast in the previous quarter, before rising modestly to 2.31% by September 2026. The adjustment follows the RBNZ’s recent decision to cut the OCR by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025.
2025-11-11
New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectations at 2.28%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.28% for the next two years in Q3 2025, edging down from 2.29% in the previous three-month period. Additionally, one-year inflation expectations eased to 2.37% from 2.41%. Meanwhile, longer-term projections showed that five-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 2.26% from 2.18%, while ten-year expectations remained unchanged at 2.15%. As for interest rates, respondents forecast the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to be at 3.02% by the end of the September 2025 quarter, declining further to 2.86% by the end of the June 2026 quarter.
2025-08-07
New Zealand Q2 Inflation Expectations Highest in A Year
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations revealed that business managers now see inflation averaging 2.29% over the next two years as of Q2 2025, up from 2.06% in the previous quarter—the highest in a year. One-year inflation expectations also rose to 2.41% from 2.15%r—the highest in four quarters. Longer-term projections showed five-year-ahead inflation expectations edging up to 2.18% from 2.13%, while 10-year expectations increased to 2.15% from 2.07%. As for interest rates, respondents forecast the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to stand at 3.77% by the end of Q1 2025, before declining to 3.23% by year-end.
2025-05-16