The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.53% over the next two years in Q2 2026, up from 2.37% in the previous period, marking the highest reading since Q4 2023. This comes as rising fuel prices are expected to drive broader inflation pressures across the economy. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations also climbed to 3.41%, the highest in over two years, up from 2.59% in Q1. In contrast, longer-term expectations eased, with five-year inflation forecasts falling to 2.22% from 2.31%, and ten-year expectations declining to 2.19% from 2.30%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to rise to 2.34% from 2.25% by the end of the June quarter, and to increase further to 3.01% over the next year. The update comes ahead of the RBNZ’s monetary policy decision in May 2026. source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Inflation Expectations in New Zealand increased to 2.53 percent in the second quarter of 2026 from 2.37 percent in the first quarter of 2026. Inflation Expectations in New Zealand averaged 2.52 percent from 1987 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 8.30 percent in the third quarter of 1987 and a record low of 1.24 percent in the second quarter of 2020. This page provides - New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. New Zealand Business 2-Year Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on June of 2026.

Inflation Expectations in New Zealand increased to 2.53 percent in the second quarter of 2026 from 2.37 percent in the first quarter of 2026. Inflation Expectations in New Zealand is expected to be 2.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the New Zealand Business 2-Year Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2027 and 1.90 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-02-13 02:30 AM
Business Inflation Expectations
Q1 2.37% 2.28% 1.7%
2026-05-13 03:00 AM
Business Inflation Expectations
Q2 2.53% 2.37% 1.7%
2026-08-07 03:00 AM
Business Inflation Expectations
Q3 2.53% 3%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
ANZ Commodity Prices YoY 1.30 2.50 percent May 2026
CPI 1339.00 1327.00 points Mar 2026
Core Consumer Prices 1336.00 1325.00 points Mar 2026
Core Inflation Rate 3.20 3.20 percent Mar 2026
CPI Housing Utilities 1463.00 1454.00 points Mar 2026
CPI Transportation 1306.00 1287.00 points Mar 2026
Export Prices 1613.00 1658.00 points Mar 2026
Export Prices -2.70 5.30 percent Mar 2026
Food Inflation YoY 2.60 3.40 percent Apr 2026
GDP Deflator 1561.00 1542.00 points Dec 2025
Import Prices 1034.00 1041.00 points Mar 2026
Import Prices -0.70 1.50 percent Mar 2026
Business Inflation Expectations 2.53 2.37 percent Jun 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 3.10 3.10 percent Mar 2026
Inflation Rate QoQ 0.90 0.60 percent Mar 2026
Input Producer Prices 1493.00 1472.00 points Mar 2026
PPI Input 1.40 -0.50 percent Mar 2026
PPI Output 0.80 0.10 percent Mar 2026
Producer Prices 1506.00 1494.00 points Mar 2026
Producer Prices Change 2.20 3.50 percent Mar 2026


New Zealand Business 2-Year Inflation Expectations
In New Zealand, business inflation expectations refer to two-year inflation forecast. Two years is seen as the timeframe when any central bank monetary policy action will filter through to prices.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
2.53 2.37 8.30 1.24 1987 - 2026 percent Quarterly
NSA

News Stream
New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Outlook Climbs to 2.53%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.53% over the next two years in Q2 2026, up from 2.37% in the previous period, marking the highest reading since Q4 2023. This comes as rising fuel prices are expected to drive broader inflation pressures across the economy. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations also climbed to 3.41%, the highest in over two years, up from 2.59% in Q1. In contrast, longer-term expectations eased, with five-year inflation forecasts falling to 2.22% from 2.31%, and ten-year expectations declining to 2.19% from 2.30%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to rise to 2.34% from 2.25% by the end of the June quarter, and to increase further to 3.01% over the next year. The update comes ahead of the RBNZ’s monetary policy decision in May 2026.
2026-05-13
New Zealand Q1 Inflation Outlook Highest in 2 Years
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.37% for the next two years in Q1 2026, the highest reading since Q1 2024 and up from 2.28% in the previous quarter. One-year inflation expectations also rose to 2.59% from 2.39%, marking the highest in seven quarters. Additionally, longer-term projections showed that five-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 2.31% from 2.22%, and ten year expectations went up to 2.3% from 2.18%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to stand at 2.25% by the end of March 2026, unchanged from the previous three-month period. The adjustment follows the RBNZ’s recent decision to cut the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.25% on 26 November 2025.
2026-02-13
New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Outlook Steady at 2.28%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.28% for the next two years in Q4 2025, unchanged from the previous three-month period. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations edged up slightly to 2.39% from 2.37%, suggesting that price pressures are expected to stay contained in the near term. Longer-term views were mixed, with five-year-ahead inflation expectations easing to 2.22% from 2.26%, while ten-year expectations inched higher to 2.18% from 2.15%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents now expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to stand at 2.25% by the end of December 2025, notably lower than the 3.02% forecast in the previous quarter, before rising modestly to 2.31% by September 2026. The adjustment follows the RBNZ’s recent decision to cut the OCR by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025.
2025-11-11