The terms of trade in New Zealand declined 3.0 percent in the December quarter of 2018, following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent decrease in the previous three-month period and compared with market expectations of a 1 percent fall. Export prices declined 1.7 percent (vs +3.7 percent in Q3), as prices for dairy products plunged 5.7 percent. Among non-food manufactures, aluminium prices declined 4.9 percent. Meanwhile, import prices climbed 1.4 percent (vs +3.7 percent in Q3), led by a 7.5 percent jump in petroleum products (vs +6.5 in Q3). Also, electrical machinery prices surged 7.8 percent. Notably, import price for non-fuel crude materials fell 0.6 percent following a 10.0 percent jump in the previous three months. Terms of Trade in New Zealand averaged 1068.92 Index Points from 1957 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 1472 Index Points in the fourth quarter of 2017 and a record low of 796 Index Points in the fourth quarter of 1975.
Terms of Trade in New Zealand is expected to be 1424.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Terms of Trade in New Zealand to stand at 1383.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Terms of Trade is projected to trend around 1370.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.