The terms of trade in New Zealand declined 0.3 percent in the September quarter of 2018, following a downwardly revised 0.4 percent rise in the previous three-month period. Export prices increased 2.3 percent (vs 2.5 percent in Q2) to their highest level in more than nine years, as meat and dairy prices went up. Meanwhile, import prices climbed 2.6 percent (vs 2.1 percent in Q2), led by a 6.4 percent advance for petroleum and petroleum products. Diesel and petrol prices were both up 14 percent, while crude oil was up 1.4 percent, after rising 14 percent in the June quarter. Terms of Trade in New Zealand averaged 1067.56 Index Points from 1957 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 1472 Index Points in the fourth quarter of 2017 and a record low of 796 Index Points in the fourth quarter of 1975.
Terms of Trade in New Zealand is expected to be 1401.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Terms of Trade in New Zealand to stand at 1390.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Terms of Trade is projected to trend around 1358.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.