The ANZ Business Confidence Index in New Zealand came in at -37.1 in November 2018, unchanged from the previous month. Inflation expectations were little-changed (2.29 vs 2.22 in October), while activity outlook (7.6 vs 7.4) and ease of credit (-31.1 vs -31.4) improved a bit. At the same time, profit expectations increased (-13.5 vs -15.3), while export intentions (8.3 vs 14.2) and capacity utilization (9.5 vs 13.5) softened markedly, and investment intentions (-4.1 vs -3.3) weakened. Among sector, residential construction intentions picked up (29.2 vs 4.5), and commercial construction rebounded sharply (16.7 vs -23.8). Meantime, the retail sector remained the least positive though continued to bounce back. Business Confidence in New Zealand averaged 5.38 percent from 1970 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 80.90 percent in February of 1994 and a record low of -76.40 percent in December of 1974.
Business Confidence in New Zealand is expected to be -36.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in New Zealand to stand at -32.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Business Confidence is projected to trend around 15.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.