This page has economic forecasts for New Zealand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the New Zealand economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.90 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 percent
Inflation Rate 1.90 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 percent
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2 2 percent
Balance of Trade -1559.87 -450 400 -500 -1550 -300 NZD Million
Government Debt to GDP 22.20 21.5 20 20 20 21 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 0.69
0.65 0.65 0.64 0.64 0.62
Stock Market 8809.70
points
9261 9196 9130 9065 8810
Government Bond 10Y 2.74
percent
2.64 2.68 2.72 2.76 2.93
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00
percent
0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80
percent
2.7 2.8 3.1 2.5 2.6
GDP 205.85
USD Billion
215 225 225 225 250
GDP Constant Prices 61875.00
NZD Million
62535 62791 63484 63235 65893
Gross National Product 65229.00
NZD Million
65855 66638 67251 66860 69527
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 15637.00
NZD Million
16014 16086 16122 16028 16907
GDP per capita 37852.87
USD
38100 38500 38500 38500 38900
GDP per capita PPP 36085.84
USD
36600 37100 37100 37100 37700
GDP From Agriculture 3360.00
NZD Million
3281 3318 3464 3444 3464
GDP From Construction 3824.00
NZD Million
3941 3909 3943 3920 4160
GDP From Manufacturing 6000.00
NZD Million
6103 6142 6186 6150 6444
GDP From Mining 602.00
NZD Million
784 774 621 617 827
GDP From Public Administration 2611.00
NZD Million
2633 2676 2692 2676 2780
GDP From Services 41215.00
NZD Million
41648 41938 42493 42245 43970
GDP From Transport 2877.00
NZD Million
2886 2905 2966 2949 3047
GDP From Utilities 1784.00
NZD Million
1777 1768 1839 1829 1876
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.90
percent
4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3
Employed Persons 2663.00
Thousand
2654 2600 2640 2645 2700
Unemployed Persons 109.00
Thousand
124 123 124 125 125
Employment Change 1.10
percent
0.5 1.1 0.2 0.79 0.4
Labor Force Participation Rate 71.10
percent
70.9 70.8 70.8 70.9 71.2
Labour Costs 1174.00
Index Points
1179 1184 1190 1195 1241
Productivity 168.99
Index Points
169 169 169 169 169
Job Vacancies 190.92
Index Points
189 189 189 189 189
Job Advertisements 45508.88
45887 46336 46640 46830 47167
Wages 31.39
NZD/Hour
31.57 31.8 31.93 32.18 33.72
Wages in Manufacturing 29.92
NZD/Hour
29.7 31.2 30.12 30.45 34
Minimum Wages 16.50
NZD/Hour
16.5 18 18 18 20
Population 4.84
Million
4.91 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.90
percent
11.44 11.53 11.22 11.19 11.31
Part Time Employment 554.00
Thousand
560 557 558 561 580
Employment Rate 68.30
percent
68.39 68.51 68.62 68.68 68.9
Full Time Employment 2107.00
Thousand
2125 2141 2156 2171 2280
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.90
percent
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 1024.00
Index Points
1020 1027 1032 1043 1060
Core Consumer Prices 1024.00
Index Points
1028 1035 1041 1047 1071
Core Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
2.2 2.32 2.58 2.25 2.11
GDP Deflator 1183.00
Index Points
1180 1182 1182 1181 1182
Producer Prices 1124.00
Index Points
1130 1134 1134 1140 1145
Export Prices 1182.00
Index Points
1189 1197 1186 1189 1188
Import Prices 814.00
Index Points
835 843 851 856 875
Inflation Expectations 2.03
percent
2.07 2.03 2.01 2.02 2.01
Food Inflation 0.60
percent
0.6 1 2 2 1.7
Cpi Housing Utilities 1042.00
Index Points
1030 1038 1049 1062 1071
CPI Transportation 1044.00
Index Points
1034 1034 1037 1064 1075
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 1.75 1.75 2 2
Interbank Rate 2.52
percent
2.52 2.52 2.52 2.77 2.77
Money Supply M0 6538.00
NZD Million
8920 8857 8859 8859 8859
Money Supply M1 67345.00
NZD Million
68950 70406 71819 73218 85370
Money Supply M3 302781.00
NZD Million
302203 301649 301484 301429 301435
Foreign Exchange Reserves 27645.00
NZD Million
29302 28964 29073 29068 29066
Banks Balance Sheet 546634.00
NZD Million
551271 551742 552447 552406 552560
Deposit Interest Rate 3.20
percent
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.45 3.45
Loans To Private Sector 110547.00
NZD Million
111955 112820 113602 114331 118888
Central Bank Balance Sheet 28882.00
NZD Million
28949 29074 29037 29032 29036
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1559.87
NZD Million
-450 400 -500 -1550 -300
Exports 4327.71
NZD Million
5250 5500 4800 3900 5100
Imports 5887.57
NZD Million
5700 5100 5300 5450 5400
Current Account -1620.00
NZD Million
-2922 75 -650 -4271 -2882
Current Account to GDP -2.80
percent
-2.8 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4
External Debt 278453.00
NZD Million
282124 283751 285588 287288 301741
Terms of Trade 1452.00
Index Points
1401 1419 1394 1390 1358
Capital Flows -1736.00
NZD Million
2374 1388 414 1301 1734
Foreign Direct Investment -1510.00
NZD Million
297 818 622 501 508
Tourist Arrivals 258155.00
550000 390000 390000 250000 530000
Terrorism Index 0.61
0.4 0.2 0.2 0.61 0.3
Weapons Sales 4.00
USD Million
2.5 5 5 5 1.5
Crude Oil Production 25.00
BBL/D/1K
24.54 24.55 24.55 24.55 24.55
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 22.20
percent
21.5 20 20 20 21
Government Budget 1.50
percent of GDP
2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1
Government Budget Value 4069.00
NZD Million
6588 8143 8373 8602 12240
Government Spending 11766.00
NZD Million
11736 11839 12131 12060 12390
Government Revenues 109973.00
NZD Million
108100 111193 112641 114089 122913
Fiscal Expenditure 104014.00
NZD Million
101512 103049 104268 105487 110673
Military Expenditure 2225.60
USD Million
2300 2450 2450 2450 2480
Asylum Applications 23.00
Persons
18.57 18.97 18.45 18.77 18.66
Government Debt 59480.00
NZD Million
61000 58000 58000 58000 57000
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence -37.10
percent
-34 -32 -30 -27 15
Manufacturing PMI 53.50
52.3 53.1 52.6 53 54
Industrial Production 2.10
percent
2.8 3 3.6 1.81 3.4
Capacity Utilization 93.20
percent
92.47 92.58 92.52 92.62 92.73
Changes in Inventories 136.00
NZD Million
450 600 80 -400 380
Car Registrations 5488.00
5906 5555 5554 5552 5551
Internet Speed 14708.73
KBps
21208 22079 22937 23780 30799
IP Addresses 1778178.00
IP
1899649 1894925 1902392 1903245 1908450
Services Pmi 53.90
57.54 53.4 53.29 53.22 53.12
Steel Production 47.56
Thousand Tonnes
53.97 53.84 54.2 54.07 54
Competitiveness Index 77.51
Points
78.01 78.01 78.01 78.01 80.51
Competitiveness Rank 18.00
18 18 18 18 18
Composite Pmi 53.10
53.4 54.1 53.7 53 53.8
Ease of Doing Business 1.00
1 1 2 2 2
Corruption Index 89.00
Points
89 89 89 89 89
Corruption Rank 1.00
1 1 1 1 1
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 103.50
Index Points
104 104 104 105 106
Retail Sales MoM 1.10
percent
1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3
Retail Sales YoY 3.10
percent
4 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.7
Consumer Spending 37833.00
NZD Million
38450 38501 39006 38779 40594
Private Sector Credit 446475.00
NZD Million
451811 457275 462701 468009 511715
Bank Lending Rate 9.34
percent
9.33 9.33 9.33 9.58 9.58
Households Debt To GDP 92.20
percent of GDP
92.56 92.67 92.78 92.89 93.49
Households Debt To Income 166.00
percent
166 166 166 166 166
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Building Permits 2675.00
2000 2100 2150 2300 2400
Housing Index 0.80
percent
-0.2 0.5 0.3 0.7 1.2
Construction Output 8.10
percent
3.7 3.8 4 3.6 4
Home Ownership Rate 64.80
percent
64.58 64.29 64.29 64.29 62.6
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent
28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent
33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
Social Security Rate For Companies 3.00
percent
3 3 3 3 3
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 8
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature 8.20
celsius
11.86 14.61 10.45 11.33 10.62



New Zealand - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook