New Zealand - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for New Zealand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the New Zealand economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.40 5 4.6 5.1 4.6 5.2 percent
Inflation Rate 1.10 1.9 1.7 2 1.8 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.25 1.75 3 percent
Balance of Trade -86.00 200 -1000 620 370 710 NZD Million
Government Debt to GDP 22.20 21.5 21.5 21.5 20 21 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 0.69
0.71 0.7 0.69 0.67 0.62
Stock Market 8615.72
points
8236 8077 7921 7768 7186
Government Bond 10Y 2.83
percent
2.88 3.01 3.14 3.27 3.88
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60
percent
0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.90
percent
3.1 3.1 2.6 3.1 2.3
GDP 185.02
USD Billion
182 187 200 220 250
GDP Constant Prices 61061.00
NZD Million
61164 61779 62649 61196 65820
Gross National Product 64124.00
NZD Million
63167 63813 65791 64162 69122
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 15541.00
NZD Million
15177 15413 15945 15343 16752
GDP per capita 36842.00
USD
36787 37640 37640 38000 38420
GDP per capita PPP 35269.10
USD
35217 35475 35300 35500 36100
GDP From Agriculture 3220.00
NZD Million
3398 3380 3304 3383 3471
GDP From Construction 3838.00
NZD Million
3741 3872 3938 3822 4137
GDP From Manufacturing 5936.00
NZD Million
5993 6035 6090 6039 6399
GDP From Mining 776.00
NZD Million
750 774 796 792 836
GDP From Public Administration 2545.00
NZD Million
2571 2565 2611 2566 2743
GDP From Services 40529.00
NZD Million
40490 40729 41583 40707 43688
GDP From Transport 2815.00
NZD Million
2773 2812 2888 2720 3034
GDP From Utilities 1733.00
NZD Million
1768 1734 1778 1795 1868
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.40
percent
5 4.6 5.1 4.6 5.2
Employed Persons 2618.00
Thousand
2645 2657 2670 2680 2715
Unemployed Persons 119.00
Thousand
125 125 125 125 125
Employment Change 0.60
percent
0.1 1.1 0.5 1.1 0.4
Labor Force Participation Rate 70.80
percent
70.8 70.72 70.76 70.74 70.75
Labour Costs 1162.00
Index Points
1152 1152 1152 1152 1152
Productivity 168.43
Index Points
168 168 168 168 167
Job Vacancies 191.48
Index Points
201 199 198 196 179
Job Advertisements 42857.03
43085 42625 42891 43116 42993
Wages 31.03
NZD/Hour
30.46 30.46 31.57 30.46 30.46
Wages in Manufacturing 29.53
NZD/Hour
29 29.6 29.7 31.2 34
Minimum Wages 16.50
NZD/Hour
16.5 16.5 16.5 18 20
Population 4.84
Million
4.81 4.81 4.9 4.85 5
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.20
percent
11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2
Part Time Employment 554.00
Thousand
550 548 549 549 549
Employment Rate 67.70
percent
67.52 67.45 67.48 67.47 67.47
Full Time Employment 2062.00
Thousand
2031 2031 2031 2031 2031
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.10
percent
1.9 1.7 2 1.8 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
0.39 0.46 0.39 0.43 0.43
Consumer Price Index CPI 1011.00
Index Points
1018 1022 1026 1029 1072
Core Consumer Prices 1012.00
Index Points
1248 1258 1023 1026 1059
Core Inflation Rate 1.28
percent
1.63 1.98 1.66 1.95 1.77
GDP Deflator 1190.00
Index Points
1176 1176 1176 1176 1176
Producer Prices 1113.00
Index Points
1119 1123 1132 1129 1130
Export Prices 1174.00
Index Points
1156 1127 1147 1133 1139
Import Prices 802.00
Index Points
825 838 849 855 880
Inflation Expectations 2.00
percent
2.16 2.16 2.18 2.2 2.36
Food Inflation 2.30
percent
0.48 0.85 1.16 1.4 2.22
CPI Transportation 1018.00
Index Points
1018 1006 1040 1036 1087
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 1.75 2.25 1.75 3
Interbank Rate 2.40
percent
2.06 2.21 2.24 2.21 2.2
Money Supply M0 6445.00
NZD Million
5861 6145 6185 6029 6086
Money Supply M1 67077.00
NZD Million
67251 68794 70375 71953 88581
Money Supply M3 295333.00
NZD Million
291195 291129 291165 291215 291269
Foreign Exchange Reserves 29152.00
NZD Million
29188 29202 29205 29204 29204
Banks Balance Sheet 527365.00
NZD Million
518540 519269 519270 519018 518569
Deposit Interest Rate 3.20
percent
3.55 3.4 3.24 3.24 3.58
Loans To Private Sector 108533.00
NZD Million
106508 106257 106121 106047 105961
Central Bank Balance Sheet 27351.00
NZD Million
27937 27860 28025 28065 28037
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -86.00
NZD Million
200 -1000 620 370 710
Exports 4854.00
NZD Million
4990 4250 5910 5290 6620
Imports 4940.00
NZD Million
4790 5250 5290 4920 5910
Current Account -2770.00
NZD Million
-2903 -3365 -2990 -3294 -3145
Current Account to GDP -2.70
percent
-3.93 -4.1 -3.88 -5.38 -4.85
External Debt 270566.00
NZD Million
268722 268293 268456 268394 268411
Terms of Trade 1463.00
Index Points
140 134 133 132 129
Capital Flows 1479.00
NZD Million
1259 1873 1712 1398 1728
Foreign Direct Investment 3167.00
NZD Million
876 118 457 526 521
Tourist Arrivals 283910.00
243300 297200 344100 310400 312100
Terrorism Index 0.61
0.18 0.09 0 0 0.62
Weapons Sales 4.00
USD Million
13.76 13.25 12.75 12.78 19.63
Crude Oil Production 30.00
BBL/D/1K
31.17 31.92 31.19 31.73 31.51
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 22.20
percent
21.5 21.5 21.5 20 21
Government Budget 1.50
percent of GDP
2 2 2 1.6 1
Government Budget Value 1831.00
NZD Million
4415 4415 4415 4415 4415
Government Spending 11461.00
NZD Million
11358 11646 11759 11386 12354
Government Revenues 104227.00
NZD Million
104227 104227 104227 104227 104227
Fiscal Expenditure 99812.00
NZD Million
99812 99812 99812 99812 99812
Military Expenditure 2225.60
USD Million
2040 2086 2131 2118 1957
Asylum Applications 24.00
Persons
18.3 17.29 17.51 17.78 17.93
Government Debt 61880.00
NZD Million
58289 58267 58244 56997 32264
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence -23.40
percent
-20.49 -20.72 -20.47 -20.52 -20.53
Manufacturing PMI 58.93
58.08 55.24 56.6 56.57 56.31
Industrial Production 1.40
percent
0.55 0.36 0.43 0.4 0.41
Capacity Utilization 93.50
percent
92.55 91.34 92.37 91.49 91.96
Changes in Inventories 388.00
NZD Million
222 192 176 178 183
Car Registrations 4403.00
5382 5389 5401 5406 5409
Internet Speed 14708.73
KBps
19425 20324 21208 22079 30799
IP Addresses 1778178.00
IP
1840007 1841556 1840501 1837462 1760770
Services Pmi 55.90
56.22 56.07 56.18 56.13 56.23
Steel Production 47.38
Thousand Tonnes
56.8 55.81 55.77 55.66 55.67
Competitiveness Index 5.37
Points
5.34 5.34 5.34 5.34 5.34
Competitiveness Rank 13.00
13 13 13 13 13
Composite Pmi 56.80
57.56 57.72 57.27 56.86 56.95
Ease of Doing Business 1.00
1 1 1 1 1
Corruption Index 89.00
Points
89 89 89 89 89
Corruption Rank 1.00
1 1 1 1 1
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 111.20
Index Points
111 111 111 111 111
Retail Sales MoM 0.10
percent
1.69 0.35 1.69 0.35 1.67
Retail Sales YoY 3.00
percent
4.4 4.35 3.99 3.79 3.63
Consumer Spending 37650.00
NZD Million
37412 37774 38629 37621 40584
Private Sector Credit 432846.00
NZD Million
437725 442129 446403 450591 491129
Bank Lending Rate 9.35
percent
9.35 9.34 9.34 9.34 9.34
Households Debt To Gdp 92.10
Percent
91.32 91.09 90.89 90.69 89.43
Households Debt To Income 168.10
percent
168 168 168 168 168
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Building Permits 3025.00
2540 2530 2523 2529 2527
Housing Index 0.20
percent
0.22 1.35 0.67 0.7 0.8
Construction Output 4.90
percent
4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
Home Ownership Rate 64.80
percent
64.65 64.58 64.5 64.43 62.6
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent
28 28 28 28 29
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent
33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate 11.00
percent
11 11 11 10 9
Social Security Rate For Companies 3.00
percent
2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.35
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 8
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 8.20
celsius
8.43 6.69 11.86 14.61 10.62