New Zealand - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for New Zealand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the New Zealand economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.2 percent
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.1 percent
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.75 percent
Balance of Trade -143.00 -300 -300 400 -500 -300 NZD Million
Government Debt to GDP 22.20 21.5 21.5 20 20 21 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 0.67
0.67 0.66 0.66 0.65 0.63
Stock Market 9375.97
points
9299 9235 9173 9111 8866
Government Bond 10Y 2.67
percent
2.67 2.71 2.74 2.78 2.95
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00
percent
1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80
percent
2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6
GDP 205.85
USD Billion
215 215 225 225 250
GDP Constant Prices 61875.00
NZD Million
61572 62535 62791 63484 65893
Gross National Product 65229.00
NZD Million
63719 65855 66573 66925 69392
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 15637.00
NZD Million
15444 16014 16070 16044 16874
GDP per capita 37852.87
USD
38100 38100 38500 38500 38900
GDP per capita PPP 36085.84
USD
36600 36600 37100 37100 37700
GDP From Agriculture 3360.00
NZD Million
3349 3281 3315 3447 3457
GDP From Construction 3824.00
NZD Million
3864 3941 3906 3923 4152
GDP From Manufacturing 6000.00
NZD Million
6022 6103 6136 6156 6431
GDP From Mining 602.00
NZD Million
763 784 773 618 826
GDP From Public Administration 2611.00
NZD Million
2572 2633 2673 2679 2775
GDP From Services 41215.00
NZD Million
40665 41648 41897 42287 43885
GDP From Transport 2877.00
NZD Million
2805 2886 2902 2952 3041
GDP From Utilities 1784.00
NZD Million
1740 1777 1766 1830 1872
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50
percent
4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.2
Employed Persons 2631.00
Thousand
2650 2654 2600 2640 2700
Unemployed Persons 124.00
Thousand
123 124 123 124 125
Employment Change 0.50
percent
1.1 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.4
Labor Force Participation Rate 70.90
percent
71 70.9 70.8 70.8 71.2
Labour Costs 1168.00
Index Points
1174 1179 1184 1189 1238
Productivity 168.99
Index Points
168 168 168 168 168
Job Vacancies 190.92
Index Points
190 190 189 189 189
Job Advertisements 45099.12
45269 46140 46673 47008 47605
Wages 31.08
NZD/Hour
31.55 31.57 32.04 32.27 34.49
Wages in Manufacturing 29.37
NZD/Hour
29.6 29.7 31.2 29.84 34
Minimum Wages 16.50
NZD/Hour
16.5 16.5 18 18 20
Population 4.84
Million
4.91 4.91 5.1 5.1 5.2
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.90
percent
10.94 11.44 11.53 11.22 11.31
Part Time Employment 545.00
Thousand
553 560 556 558 579
Employment Rate 67.70
percent
67.47 67.64 67.43 67.58 67.49
Full Time Employment 2093.00
Thousand
2109 2126 2144 2159 2286
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50
percent
1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 1015.00
Index Points
1022 1023 1029 1033 1063
Core Consumer Prices 1015.00
Index Points
1012 1016 1022 1026 1038
Core Inflation Rate 1.01
percent
0.75 0.86 0.96 1.05 1.09
GDP Deflator 1183.00
Index Points
1188 1184 1187 1186 1186
Producer Prices 1124.00
Index Points
1130 1130 1134 1134 1145
Export Prices 1182.00
Index Points
1197 1189 1197 1186 1188
Import Prices 814.00
Index Points
828 835 843 851 875
Inflation Expectations 2.04
percent
1.91 1.91 1.94 1.92 1.91
Food Inflation -0.10
percent
0.3 0.6 1 2 1.7
Cpi Housing Utilities 1031.00
Index Points
1028 1033 1040 1050 1074
CPI Transportation 1020.00
Index Points
1006 1037 1036 1038 1078
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.75
Interbank Rate 2.30
percent
2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 3.3
Money Supply M0 6348.00
NZD Million
9266 9179 9181 9182 9182
Money Supply M1 67413.00
NZD Million
68059 69600 71115 72605 86862
Money Supply M3 301499.00
NZD Million
297672 298430 298517 298420 298258
Foreign Exchange Reserves 31462.00
NZD Million
31371 31117 31208 31203 31200
Banks Balance Sheet 543344.00
NZD Million
548258 550871 551459 551906 552043
Deposit Interest Rate 3.20
percent
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.2
Loans To Private Sector 110548.00
NZD Million
112053 113298 114442 115505 122822
Central Bank Balance Sheet 29606.00
NZD Million
29393 29295 29507 29460 29460
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -143.00
NZD Million
-300 -300 400 -500 -300
Exports 5350.00
NZD Million
3600 5250 5500 4800 5100
Imports 5492.00
NZD Million
5700 5550 5100 5300 5400
Current Account -1620.00
NZD Million
-4509 -2922 75 -650 -2882
Current Account to GDP -2.80
percent
-2.8 -2.8 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4
External Debt 278453.00
NZD Million
276068 277430 278968 280381 293560
Terms of Trade 1452.00
Index Points
1445 1401 1419 1394 1358
Capital Flows -1736.00
NZD Million
1861 1650 1086 1329 1672
Foreign Direct Investment -1510.00
NZD Million
168 434 502 547 526
Tourist Arrivals 246682.00
255000 550000 390000 390000 530000
Terrorism Index 0.61
0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3
Weapons Sales 4.00
USD Million
2.5 2.5 5 5 1.5
Crude Oil Production 24.00
BBL/D/1K
23.9 23.91 23.91 23.91 23.91
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 22.20
percent
21.5 21.5 20 20 21
Government Budget 1.50
percent of GDP
2 2 1.6 1.6 1
Government Budget Value 4069.00
NZD Million
5755 6588 6876 7164 10433
Government Spending 11766.00
NZD Million
11589 11736 11828 12072 12366
Government Revenues 104227.00
NZD Million
106404 108100 109038 109976 119251
Fiscal Expenditure 99812.00
NZD Million
100649 101512 102162 102812 108817
Military Expenditure 2225.60
USD Million
2300 2300 2450 2450 2480
Asylum Applications 24.00
Persons
20.67 19.97 20.35 20.22 20.25
Government Debt 59480.00
NZD Million
61000 61000 58000 58000 57000
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence -50.30
percent
-57 -56 -50 -46 15
Manufacturing PMI 52.05
51.8 52.3 53.1 52.6 54
Industrial Production 2.10
percent
3.2 2.8 3 3.6 3.4
Capacity Utilization 92.80
percent
93.02 92.47 92.48 92.48 92.68
Changes in Inventories 136.00
NZD Million
-300 450 600 80 380
Car Registrations 5785.00
6069 5906 5842 5821 5813
Internet Speed 14708.73
KBps
20324 21208 22079 22937 30799
IP Addresses 1778178.00
IP
1880073 1899649 1894925 1902392 1908450
Services Pmi 53.20
54.13 57.54 54.66 54.68 54.68
Steel Production 61.84
Thousand Tonnes
54.89 56.21 56.2 56.06 55.92
Competitiveness Index 5.37
Points
5.37 5.37 5.42 5.42 5.47
Competitiveness Rank 13.00
13 13 11 11 10
Composite Pmi 53.10
52.7 53.4 54.1 53.7 53.8
Ease of Doing Business 1.00
1 1 1 1 1
Corruption Index 89.00
Points
90 90 90 90 90
Corruption Rank 1.00
2 2 2 2 2
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 103.50
Index Points
107 104 104 104 106
Retail Sales MoM 1.10
percent
0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3
Retail Sales YoY 3.10
percent
3.6 4 4.2 3.8 3.7
Consumer Spending 37833.00
NZD Million
37595 38450 38463 38817 40515
Private Sector Credit 439629.00
NZD Million
443644 448167 452822 457270 497168
Bank Lending Rate 9.34
percent
9.34 9.34 9.34 9.34 10.34
Households Debt To Gdp 91.80
Percent
91.47 91.38 91.28 91.21 90.74
Households Debt To Income 166.00
percent
166 166 166 166 166
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Building Permits 2522.00
2250 2000 2100 2150 2400
Housing Index 0.90
percent
-1.6 -1.6 -1.3 -1.3 1.2
Construction Output 8.10
percent
4.2 3.7 3.8 4 4
Home Ownership Rate 64.80
percent
64.58 64.58 64.29 64.29 62.6
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent
28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent
33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
Social Security Rate For Companies 3.00
percent
3 3 3 3 3
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 8
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 8.20
celsius
6.69 11.86 14.61 10.45 10.62