New Zealand - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for New Zealand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the New Zealand economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.50 5 5 4.4 5.1 5.2 percent
Inflation Rate 1.60 2.1 1.9 1.7 2 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.25 3 percent
Balance of Trade 640.00 952 7.36 -457 -181 -95.42 NZD Million
Government Debt to GDP 24.60 25.32 25.05 24.77 24.5 24.7 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 0.74
0.71 0.7 0.68 0.67 0.62
Stock Market 8125.31
points
8114 7979 7846 7716 6749
Government Bond 10Y 2.98
percent
3.07 3.21 3.34 3.49 4.13
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60
percent
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.70
percent
2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.3
GDP 185.02
USD Billion
176 181 186 200 250
GDP Constant Prices 60618.00
NZD Million
61255 61507 61675 61822 61935
Gross National Product 62839.00
NZD Million
63158 63374 63468 63510 63049
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 15178.00
NZD Million
15178 15201 15180 15155 14779
GDP per capita 36842.00
USD
36525 36759 36993 37640 38420
GDP per capita PPP 35269.10
USD
34850 35100 35351 35300 36100
GDP From Agriculture 3360.00
NZD Million
3307 3285 3264 3245 3055
GDP From Construction 3811.00
NZD Million
3804 3809 3803 3799 3715
GDP From Manufacturing 5943.00
NZD Million
5920 5905 5890 5874 5716
GDP From Mining 761.00
NZD Million
749 743 738 734 708
GDP From Public Administration 2529.00
NZD Million
2544 2547 2547 2546 2516
GDP From Services 40090.00
NZD Million
40562 40764 40951 41122 42153
GDP From Transport 2769.00
NZD Million
2814 2826 2835 2841 2838
GDP From Utilities 1715.00
NZD Million
1720 1717 1715 1713 1692
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50
percent
5 5 4.4 5.1 5.2
Employed Persons 2605.00
Thousand
2624 2644 2656 2668 2703
Unemployed Persons 122.00
Thousand
120 118 117 116 116
Employment Change 0.50
percent
0.75 0.86 0.51 0.59 0.38
Labor Force Participation Rate 71.00
percent
71.02 71.05 71 70.97 70.47
Labour Costs 1158.00
Index Points
1163 1168 1173 1178 1226
Productivity 167.98
Index Points
167 168 167 167 166
Job Vacancies 199.01
Index Points
200 198 196 194 175
Job Advertisements 44192.14
44021 43776 43283 42751 37261
Wages 30.74
NZD/Hour
30.96 31.2 31.39 31.57 32.83
Wages in Manufacturing 29.24
NZD Million/Quarter
149 258 371 472 1280
Minimum Wages 16.50
NZD/Hour
15.75 16.5 16.5 16.5 17.5
Population 4.75
Million
4.81 4.81 4.9 4.9 5
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.20
percent
11.81 11.63 11.64 11.72 11.75
Part Time Employment 552.00
Thousand
553 554 553 553 551
Employment Rate 67.80
percent
67.92 68.03 68.01 67.98 66.66
Full Time Employment 2050.00
Thousand
2065 2079 2089 2098 2120
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60
percent
2.1 1.9 1.7 2 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.47 0.39 0.46 0.39 0.43
Consumer Price Index CPI 1006.00
Index Points
918 757 686 585 382
Core Consumer Prices 1006.00
Index Points
908 756 708 646 743
Core Inflation Rate 1.60
percent
1.6 1.73 1.8 1.94 2.45
GDP Deflator 1176.00
Index Points
1180 1184 1185 1185 1181
Producer Prices 1094.00
Index Points
1104 1109 1112 1114 1113
Export Prices 1117.00
Index Points
1083 1078 1076 1074 1031
Import Prices 773.00
Index Points
775 772 771 772 771
Inflation Expectations 2.10
percent
2.05 2.16 2.17 2.2 2.61
Food Inflation 2.30
percent
2.28 2.31 2.33 2.35 2.42
CPI Transportation 1020.00
Index Points
1016 1015 1015 1013 999
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 1.75 1.75 2.25 3
Interbank Rate 2.15
percent
2.21 2.36 2.52 2.67 4.21
Money Supply M0 6359.00
NZD Million
3929 3646 3615 3608 3607
Money Supply M1 65542.00
NZD Million
66309 66423 66415 66383 65901
Money Supply M3 292600.00
NZD Million
290971 290141 289694 289429 288070
Foreign Exchange Reserves 29143.00
NZD Million
30452 30218 30116 30048 29190
Banks Balance Sheet 528128.00
NZD Million
533045 533192 532504 531585 519881
Deposit Interest Rate 3.20
percent
3.96 3.79 3.62 3.46 5
Loans To Private Sector 108255.00
NZD Million
109194 109240 109186 109106 108052
Central Bank Balance Sheet 30187.00
NZD Million
29830 29675 29464 29288 27362
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 640.00
NZD Million
952 7.36 -457 -181 -95.42
Exports 5550.00
NZD Million
5095 5076 5021 4968 4410
Imports 4911.00
NZD Million
5125 5119 5084 5047 4630
Current Account -4680.00
NZD Million
437 -653 -4055 -3046 -2630
Current Account to GDP -2.70
percent
-4.09 -4.1 -4.11 -4.12 -5.06
External Debt 270567.00
NZD Million
273534 274529 275187 275627 272897
Terms of Trade 1446.00
Index Points
1443 1438 1433 1427 1361
Capital Flows 2146.00
NZD Million
561 1337 1890 1368 1720
Foreign Direct Investment -679.00
NZD Million
197 627 581 534 500
Tourist Arrivals 513349.00
452600 368100 303400 257100 145600
Terrorism Index 0.61
0.28 0.18 0.09 0 0.62
Weapons Sales 6.00
USD Million
-4.12 0.07 4.27 8.46 18.13
Crude Oil Production 32.00
BBL/D/1K
33.92 34.49 34.98 35.4 37.52
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 24.60
percent
25.32 25.05 24.77 24.5 24.7
Government Budget 0.70
percent of GDP
0.54 0.63 0.71 0.79 -0.54
Government Budget Value 1831.00
NZD Million
1965 2168 2371 2574 -646
Government Spending 11451.00
NZD Million
11589 11677 11703 11743 11764
Government Revenues 104227.00
NZD Million
102310 104166 106022 107878 115315
Fiscal Expenditure 99812.00
NZD Milliom
97000 97936 98871 99807 100765
Military Expenditure 2067.00
USD Million
1966 2006 2046 2087 1989
Asylum Applications 17.00
Persons
21.62 23.07 24.54 25.95 39.87
Government Debt 61880.00
NZD Million
58763 58718 58672 58627 39680
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence -37.80
Index Points
-22.5 -17.52 -12.98 -9.48 2.48
Manufacturing PMI 55.61
53.65 53.94 53.87 53.78 53.57
Industrial Production 0.00
percent
0.4 0.54 0.65 0.75 1.1
Capacity Utilization 92.80
percent
91.97 92.12 91.66 91.63 91.13
Changes in Inventories -541.00
NZD Million
121 202 206 185 166
Car Registrations 4464.00
4813 4729 4603 4484 3492
Internet Speed 14708.73
KBps
18632 19435 20405 20984 23323
IP Addresses 1778178.00
IP
1835372 1840007 1841556 1840501 1760770
Services Pmi 56.00
55.95 55.91 55.85 55.8 55.46
Steel Production 60.57
Thousand Tonnes
63.03 64.66 65.6 66.12 66.75
Competitiveness Index 5.37
Points
5.34 5.34 5.34 5.34 5.3
Competitiveness Rank 13.00
13 13 13 13 17
Composite Pmi 54.00
54.16 54.4 54.49 54.51 54.39
Ease of Doing Business 1.00
1 1 1 1 3
Corruption Index 90.00
Points
90 90 90 90 92
Corruption Rank 1.00
2 2 2 1 2
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 107.40
Index Points
108 109 109 109 110
Retail Sales MoM 0.20
percent
0.57 0.52 0.6 0.54 0.55
Retail Sales YoY 4.10
percent
4.01 3.61 3.62 3.5 3.59
Consumer Spending 37052.00
NZD Million
37572 37786 37973 38147 38925
Private Sector Credit 428661.00
NZD Million
430793 431761 432199 432364 430760
Bank Lending Rate 9.31
percent
9.33 9.39 9.48 9.58 10.42
Households Debt To Income 167.50
percent
167 167 167 166 162
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Building Permits 2461.00
2481 2437 2393 2352 2074
Housing Index 0.20
percent
0.43 0.64 0.54 0.57 0.56
Construction Output 4.90
percent
0.78 2.1 3.73 5.8 7.98
Home Ownership Rate 64.80
percent
64.75 64.68 64.6 64.53 63.66
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent
29 29 29 29 29
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent
33 33 33 33 34
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 14
Social Security Rate 11.00
percent
10 10 10 10 9
Social Security Rate For Companies 3.00
percent
2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.35
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent
7.34 7.34 7.34 7.34 6.28
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 8.20
celsius
14.58 8.43 6.69 11.86 10.62