New Zealand | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for New Zealand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the New Zealand economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.8 0.9 0.67 0.64 0.64 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.80 5 4.9 5 5 5.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.70 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 85.00 -49.62 -121 -140 -145 -147 NZD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 24.60 23.65 23.59 23.47 23.35 22.32 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 0.73 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.7 0.62 [+]
Stock Market 7814.78 7540 7470 7390 7320 6480 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.00 3.02 3.05 3.08 3.11 3.44 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.8 0.9 0.67 0.64 0.64 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50 2.4 2.7 2.67 2.75 2.3 percent [+]
GDP 185.02 180 180 190 187 250 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 58802.00 58113 58097 58117 58113 58125 NZD Million [+]
Gross National Product 60997.00 61849 61794 62001 62051 62168 NZD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 14396.00 14684 14763 14831 14895 15532 NZD Million [+]
GDP per capita 36842.00 37055 36940 37350 37407 38420 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 35269.10 35150 35150 35806 35878 36100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 3207.00 3237 3255 3251 3248 3232 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 3446.00 3484 3482 3492 3479 3487 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 5916.00 5807 5831 5806 5823 5816 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 729.00 790 797 798 794 792 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2535.00 2508 2514 2528 2536 2616 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Services 39055.00 39132 39353 39573 39790 41897 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 2485.00 2369 2375 2366 2366 2364 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 1656.00 1636 1649 1635 1648 1642 NZD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.80 5 4.9 5 5 5.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2535.00 2544 2551 2553 2559 2575 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 128.00 126 122 122 120 120 Thousand [+]
Employment Change -0.20 0.36 0.39 0.24 0.43 0.47 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 70.00 70.05 69.95 69.98 69.96 69.96 percent [+]
Labour Costs 1146.00 1151 1155 1160 1165 1208 Index Points [+]
Productivity 166.68 165 164 165 165 165 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 195.60 212 217 220 218 190 Index Points [+]
Job Advertisements 42366.20 42060 41637 41040 40390 35125 [+]
Wages 30.15 30.25 30.3 30.45 30.58 31.53 NZD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 28.47 -120 22.18 -114 19.18 17.91 NZD Million/Quarter [+]
Minimum Wages 15.75 15.25 15.25 16 16 16.75 NZD/Hour [+]
Population 4.75 4.78 4.8 4.81 4.81 5 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Employment Rate 66.70 67.32 67.43 67.46 67.51 67.6 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 2004.00 2016 2025 2033 2039 2070 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 536.00 536 540 535 540 538 Thousand [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.10 12.4 12.7 12.56 12.45 12.52 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.70 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.29 0.19 0.24 0.25 0.27 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 1226.00 1229 1232 1236 1239 1271 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 1228.00 1231 1235 1238 1242 1276 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.74 1.86 1.52 1.11 1.29 1.34 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1155.00 1184 1188 1191 1194 1198 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 1083.00 1092 1097 1102 1106 1116 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 1139.00 1174 1162 1144 1136 1141 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 793.00 794 799 799 797 796 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 1071.00 1060 1074 1068 1069 1069 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.30 3.1 3.22 3.28 3.3 3.32 percent [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.10 2.31 2.03 2.1 2.16 2.18 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 2.05 2.08 2.24 2.4 2.56 3.93 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 5882.00 3826 3595 3569 3564 3563 NZD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 61936.00 61611 63242 64795 66325 81158 NZD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 150882.00 153875 154562 155212 155829 160407 NZD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 282011.00 278097 278947 279087 279017 278861 NZD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 24687.00 25911 25610 25676 25676 25675 NZD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 520745.00 517190 518188 518340 518469 518503 NZD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 3.20 3.32 3.2 3.19 3.19 3.42 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 27575.00 26565 26503 26524 26527 26526 NZD Million [+]
Loans To Private Sector 103771.00 107782 109244 110603 111860 120310 NZD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 85.00 -49.62 -121 -140 -145 -147 NZD Million [+]
Exports 4633.00 4224 4340 4381 4349 4355 NZD Million [+]
Imports 4548.00 4383 4392 4420 4424 4422 NZD Million [+]
Current Account -618.00 -4856 -2634 97.26 -1895 -2571 NZD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -4.08 -4.08 -4.19 -4.3 -5.37 percent [+]
External Debt 263282.00 263656 264771 265824 266876 276294 NZD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 1437.00 1448 1444 1424 1404 1397 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 96.00 2925 297 1429 1716 1594 NZD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1441.00 459 386 439 469 471 NZD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 233991.00 226600 200400 181400 168500 142400 [+]
Crude Oil Production 26.00 26.28 26.28 26.28 26.28 26.28 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 6.00 5.03 9.27 10.72 12.16 17.89 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.23 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.44 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 24.60 23.65 23.59 23.47 23.35 22.32 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.70 0.3 0.9 -0.2 -0.38 -2.15 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 1831.00 2385 2618 2542 2466 590 NZD Million [+]
Government Spending 11207.00 11215 11277 11331 11389 11938 NZD Million [+]
Government Revenues 98159.00 100084 100904 101732 102560 109477 NZD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 95880.00 95348 96050 96361 96673 98746 NZD Milliom [+]
Asylum Applications 32.00 36.51 36.06 36.23 36.22 36.2 Persons [+]
Government Debt 61880.00 60691 61201 60879 60556 57386 NZD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2067.00 2060 2101 2081 2060 1978 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 18.30 13.34 12.25 10.67 9.46 5.16 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 57.90 55.91 56.08 56.14 56.18 56.18 [+]
Industrial Production 0.40 0.55 0.67 0.76 0.84 1.12 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 92.10 93 92.25 92.58 92.72 92.74 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -228.00 268 122 139 161 175 NZD Million [+]
Car Registrations 5115.00 6367 6093 6199 6077 6081 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.31 5.25 5.25 5.31 5.33 5.29 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 13.00 15 15 14 13 17 [+]
Composite Pmi 57.90 57.58 57.66 57.81 57.91 57.95 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 [+]
Corruption Index 90.00 89 88 88 89 89 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 1.00 2 1 1 2 2 [+]
Services Pmi 57.30 57.66 57.47 57.44 57.44 57.45 [+]
Steel Production 55.44 53.49 54.87 54.77 54.89 54.86 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 112.40 114 114 114 114 114 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 2.00 1.41 1.42 1.27 1.18 1.17 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 5.40 5.44 6.09 5.91 5.58 5.45 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 36061.00 36104 36330 36496 36643 37515 NZD Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 420455.00 422248 424009 424908 425335 424400 NZD Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 9.34 9.35 9.41 9.5 9.6 10.35 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 248163.00 259821 264081 268281 272423 310787 NZD Million [+]
Households Debt To Income 167.20 169 169 170 171 175 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Building Permits 2533.00 2544 2565 2566 2562 2563 [+]
Housing Index -0.20 0.8 0.58 0.61 0.61 0.61 percent [+]
Construction Output 4.90 6.16 6.11 10.75 11.93 12.07 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 64.80 64.58 64.5 64.43 64.36 62.86 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28 28 28 28 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00 32.96 32.93 32.93 32.93 32.93 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 8 8 8 8 percent [+]