New Zealand | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for New Zealand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the New Zealand economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.68 0.68 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 5 4.9 5 5.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.20 0.5 0.6 0.8 2.18 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 578.00 160 -61.46 -122 -139 -146 NZD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 24.60 23.71 23.65 23.59 23.47 22.32 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 0.71 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.6 [+]
Stock Market 7441.57 7140 7070 6850 6930 5770 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.80 3.19 3.22 3.25 3.29 3.79 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.68 0.68 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.70 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.52 2.3 percent [+]
GDP 173.75 180 180 180 162 250 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 58178.00 58611 58693 58815 58875 59119 NZD Million [+]
Gross National Product 61130.00 62102 62504 62653 62879 63279 NZD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 14370.00 14554 14623 14692 14759 15454 NZD Million [+]
GDP per capita 36801.40 36940 37037 36940 37205 38420 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 35158.64 35150 35150 35150 35322 36100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 3145.00 3103 3112 3126 3145 3151 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 3575.00 3587 3573 3580 3577 3578 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 5754.00 5725 5719 5736 5727 5731 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 781.00 810 812 816 811 808 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2449.00 2470 2483 2489 2498 2563 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Services 38459.00 38982 39225 39461 39692 42100 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 2450.00 2478 2468 2485 2472 2480 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 1615.00 1618 1612 1617 1613 1615 NZD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 5 4.9 5 5.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2539.00 2557 2573 2588 2600 2658 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 132.00 137 136 135 137 136 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 1.20 0.87 0.89 0.98 0.91 0.96 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 70.60 70.69 70.78 70.86 70.93 71.44 percent [+]
Labour Costs 1141.00 1145 1150 1154 1158 1203 Index Points [+]
Productivity 166.55 167 167 167 167 167 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 144.40 148 147 146 146 145 Index Points [+]
Job Advertisements 43303.77 43655 44480 45083 45452 46148 [+]
Wages 29.96 30.09 30.2 30.23 30.37 31.29 NZD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 29.22 193 37.18 185 41.37 183 NZD Million/Quarter [+]
Minimum Wages 15.75 15.25 15.25 15.25 16 16.75 NZD/Hour [+]
Population 4.75 4.76 4.78 4.8 4.81 5 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Employment Rate 66.90 67.26 67.29 67.43 67.42 67.58 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 1992.00 2006 2018 2027 2036 2077 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 546.00 543 541 546 541 544 Thousand [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.60 12.35 12.53 12.96 12.84 12.76 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.20 0.5 0.6 0.8 2.18 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.00 0.6 0.56 0.45 0.41 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 1226.00 1232 1238 1243 1248 1293 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 1227.00 1233 1239 1245 1250 1308 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.16 2.29 2.52 2.2 1.89 1.88 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1152.00 1161 1166 1167 1169 1172 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 1068.00 1075 1080 1083 1086 1094 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 1040.00 1067 1070 1060 1058 1057 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 764.00 768 769 771 772 771 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 1085.00 1093 1082 1095 1088 1093 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.20 0.13 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 2.26 2.28 2.34 2.36 2.36 2.36 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 5897.00 94560 74672 63005 55806 14779 NZD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 59856.00 59960 61495 63562 65636 87391 NZD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 150882.00 153070 153875 154562 155212 160407 NZD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 275412.00 284015 279595 274314 270723 243029 NZD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 26562.00 26119 26145 26155 26153 26153 NZD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 506189.00 505373 504524 504394 504268 504232 NZD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 3.20 3.45 3.32 3.2 3.19 3.42 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 25464.00 25777 25699 25703 25709 25708 NZD Million [+]
Loans To Private Sector 103441.00 105185 106445 107610 108682 116136 NZD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 578.00 160 -61.46 -122 -139 -146 NZD Million [+]
Exports 4750.00 4384 4142 4255 4251 4240 NZD Million [+]
Imports 4172.00 4353 4352 4331 4329 4332 NZD Million [+]
Current Account -2335.00 -949 -4698 -2301 1258 -2187 NZD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -4.08 -4.08 -4.08 -4.19 -5.37 percent [+]
External Debt 261128.00 263714 265000 266132 267308 278661 NZD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 1362.00 1371 1381 1374 1362 1354 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -2568.00 1660 3013 427 974 1749 NZD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 680.00 562 430 463 452 467 NZD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 311866.00 254028 273990 312009 296428 292119 [+]
Crude Oil Production 33.00 33.19 33.18 33.18 33.18 33.18 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 6.00 0.78 5.03 9.27 10.72 17.89 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.23 0.1 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.44 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 24.60 23.71 23.65 23.59 23.47 22.32 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.70 0.3 0.3 0.9 -0.2 -2.15 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 1831.00 2152 2385 2618 2542 590 NZD Million [+]
Government Spending 10994.00 11089 11147 11197 11251 11815 NZD Million [+]
Government Revenues 98159.00 99264 100084 100904 101732 109477 NZD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 95880.00 94646 95348 96050 96361 98746 NZD Milliom [+]
Asylum Applications 41.00 35.25 36.51 36.06 36.23 36.2 Persons [+]
Government Debt 61880.00 60180 60691 61201 60879 57386 NZD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2446.70 2408 2426 2443 2422 2329 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 11.00 10.1 8.89 7.95 7.2 4.45 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 56.80 56.61 56.59 56.6 56.62 56.64 [+]
Industrial Production 2.30 2 2.81 3.52 3.67 2.75 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 93.60 93.51 93.85 93.43 93.15 93.19 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 906.00 250 258 114 125 166 NZD Million [+]
Car Registrations 4546.00 5074 5051 4898 5032 4905 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.31 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.33 5.29 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 13.00 15 15 15 13 17 [+]
Composite Pmi 58.70 58.48 58.36 58.32 58.31 58.32 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 [+]
Corruption Index 90.00 89 89 88 88 89 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 1.00 2 2 1 1 2 [+]
Steel Production 55.08 53.04 52.69 53 52.85 52.79 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Services Pmi 52.80 56 55.47 55.46 55.51 55.56 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 111.90 111 112 112 112 112 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.50 0.91 1.08 1.01 0.94 0.95 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.60 3.95 4.24 4.83 4.53 4.58 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 35298.00 36000 36208 36476 36651 37822 NZD Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 413464.00 419916 425915 431801 437605 495420 NZD Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 9.35 9.41 9.44 9.45 9.45 9.44 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 248163.00 255501 259821 264081 268281 310787 NZD Million [+]
Households Debt To Income 167.90 170 171 172 173 181 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Building Permits 2651.00 2563 2583 2587 2584 2584 [+]
Housing Index 0.90 0.63 0.92 0.84 0.87 0.86 percent [+]
Construction Output 20.90 15.6 14.7 14.69 15.53 17.11 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 64.80 64.65 64.58 64.5 64.43 62.86 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28 28 28 28 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00 33 32.96 32.93 32.93 32.93 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 8 8 8 8 percent [+]