The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index in New Zealand edged up to 48.4 in August 2019 from a downwardly revised 48.1 in July 2019. The latest reading pointed to the second consecutive contraction in the factory sector, as output fell into negative territory (49.7 from 51.2 in July) and new orders (45.6 from 48.5) and deliveries (48 from 48.9) shrank further. Also, finished stocks declined slightly (53 from 53.1) while employment rose but still remaining in contraction territory (49.3 from 42.3). “Disconcertingly, the PMI adds to a building case over recent times that there has been a palpable softening in demand - at least for manufactured goods,” said BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel. Manufacturing PMI in New Zealand averaged 53.32 from 2002 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 62.80 in June of 2004 and a record low of 36.10 in November of 2008.
Manufacturing PMI in New Zealand is expected to be 47.80 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in New Zealand to stand at 51.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 54.00 in 2020, according to our econometric models.