The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% at its October 2026 meeting, following a 25bps hike in September, the first rate increase since 2023. However, investors will be closely watching policymakers’ comments for clues about the future policy path, particularly from Chair Kevin Warsh, as markets currently price in another 25bps hike in December. Recent inflation data have reinforced concerns about persistent price pressures. The US annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% in each of the previous two months and above market expectations of 3.6%, largely driven by higher energy prices. Meanwhile, producer prices surged 6.3% year over year, marking the fastest increase since December 2022 and significantly exceeding expectations of 5.3%. Elevated oil prices are likely to sustain upward pressure on inflation. Meanwhile, the labor market has settled into a “low-fire, low-hire” pattern. source: Federal Reserve

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. Interest Rate in the United States averaged 5.39 percent from 1971 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 20.00 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Fed Funds Interest Rate - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2026.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. Interest Rate in the United States is expected to be 4.25 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Fed Funds Interest Rate is projected to trend around 4.25 percent in 2027 and 4.00 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-09-16 06:00 PM Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr 4.1% 3.6%
2026-09-16 06:00 PM Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr 3.9% 3.4%
2026-09-16 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 4% 3.75% 4% 4%
2026-10-28 06:00 PM FOMC Statement
2026-10-28 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 4% 4.0% 4.0%
2026-10-28 06:30 PM Fed Press Conference


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Banks Balance Sheet 26105.00 25991.30 USD Billion Oct 2026
Fed Balance Sheet 6753604.00 6755639.00 USD Million Oct 2026
Foreign Exchange Reserves 38578.00 38343.00 USD Million Aug 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 3.70 3.40 percent Sep 2026
Fed Interest Rate 4.00 3.75 percent Sep 2026
Loans to Private Sector 2959.02 2934.90 USD Billion Sep 2026
Money Supply M0 5449800.00 5411600.00 USD Million Sep 2026
Money Supply M1 20061.20 19967.30 USD Billion Sep 2026
Money Supply M2 23342.80 23217.90 USD Billion Aug 2026
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.10 percent Sep 2026


United States Fed Funds Interest Rate
In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
4.00 3.75 20.00 0.25 1971 - 2026 percent Daily

News Stream
Fed to Keep Rates Steady
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% at its October 2026 meeting, following a 25bps hike in September, the first rate increase since 2023. However, investors will be closely watching policymakers’ comments for clues about the future policy path, particularly from Chair Kevin Warsh, as markets currently price in another 25bps hike in December. Recent inflation data have reinforced concerns about persistent price pressures. The US annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% in each of the previous two months and above market expectations of 3.6%, largely driven by higher energy prices. Meanwhile, producer prices surged 6.3% year over year, marking the fastest increase since December 2022 and significantly exceeding expectations of 5.3%. Elevated oil prices are likely to sustain upward pressure on inflation. Meanwhile, the labor market has settled into a “low-fire, low-hire” pattern.
2026-10-28
Warsh Comments Boost Bets on Fed Rate Hold in October
Fed Chair Warsh refrained from signalling the outcome of this month’s FOMC meeting, but said hotter-than-expected inflation had not altered his assessment of the US economy, prompting traders to further scale back expectations of an October rate hike. Speaking at an IMF summit in Bangkok, Chair Warsh said that “I don’t prejudge meetings. I don’t believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year", but added that "the world has broadly conformed with our expectations”. He also reiterated his concerns over persistent inflation, noting that central banks in the US and elsewhere recognised that price pressures remained uncomfortably elevated. The Fed raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points 3.75%-4% in September 2026, marking its first increase since 2023. All 19 policymakers backed the move, while a majority also projected a further hike before year-end.
2026-10-16
Fed Likely to Raise Rates Again This Year
Most Fed policymakers judged that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year-end. However, they emphasized that they approached each meeting with an open mind and that future decisions would depend on incoming economic data, its implications for the outlook, and the balance of risks, according to the minutes of the September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting. Minutes also showed that all policymakers supported raising the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.75%-4%. Participants generally emphasized that inflation remained elevated while the labor market appeared to be near full employment, with some signs of strengthening, and that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace. Furthermore, almost all participants assessed that, while inflation risks were tilted to the upside, risks to the labor market had diminished and were now broadly balanced.
2026-10-07