Japan’s Business Survey Index for large manufacturers rose to 7.6% in the third quarter of 2026 from -1.8% in Q2, far above market expectations of 2.5%. It was the fastest pace of improvement since Q4 2021, amid government efforts to boost GDP growth and stronger government spending. Looking ahead, manufacturing sentiment is expected to continue to expand, though at a softer rate, to 5.8% in Q4 and 4.9% in Q1 2027. The index, based on a survey of major manufacturers, remains a key barometer for an economy where industrial output plays a central role. The Bank of Japan raised its FY2026 GDP growth projection to 0.6% from 0.5% at its latest meeting, due to resilient domestic demand amid the government’s support measures. However, the board warned that underlying inflation could exceed the 2% target amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. For FY2027, the BoJ lifted its inflation forecast to 2.4% from 2.3%, while raising its GDP growth outlook to 0.8% from 0.7%. source: Cabinet Office, Japan

Business Survey Index Large Manufacturing Firms in Japan increased to 7.60 percent in the third quarter of 2026 from -1.80 percent in the second quarter of 2026. Business Survey Index Large Manufacturing Firms in Japan averaged -0.90 percent from 2004 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 21.60 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 and a record low of -66.00 percent in the first quarter of 2009. This page includes a chart with historical data for Japan Business Survey Index Large Manufacturing Firms. Japan Business Survey Index Large Manufacturing Firms - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2026.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-06-10 11:50 PM
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
Q2 -1.8% 3.8% 4.2% 4.0%
2026-09-10 11:50 PM
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
Q3 7.6% -1.8% 2.5% 2.0%
2026-12-09 11:50 PM
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
Q4


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
BSI Large Manufacturing 7.60 -1.80 percent Sep 2026
Changes in Inventories -2408.50 -1742.10 JPY Billion Jun 2026
Coincident Index 120.60 118.90 points Jul 2026
Eco Watchers Survey Current 46.40 45.70 points Aug 2026
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 48.30 45.80 points Aug 2026
Leading Economic Index 117.70 116.20 Points Jul 2026
Machinery Orders MoM -3.70 9.70 percent Jul 2026
New Orders 1279.73 1275.80 JPY Billion Jul 2026


Japan Business Survey Index Large Manufacturing Firms
The Business Outlook Survey is an analysis of the business leaders' assessments and forecasts of and for the economy in order to gain basic information for keeping track of economic trends. It covers about 15,000 companies that have established their headquarters or principal offices in Japan.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
7.60 -1.80 21.60 -66.00 2004 - 2026 percent Quarterly
NSA

News Stream
Japan Business Sentiment Highest Since 2021
Japan’s Business Survey Index for large manufacturers rose to 7.6% in the third quarter of 2026 from -1.8% in Q2, far above market expectations of 2.5%. It was the fastest pace of improvement since Q4 2021, amid government efforts to boost GDP growth and stronger government spending. Looking ahead, manufacturing sentiment is expected to continue to expand, though at a softer rate, to 5.8% in Q4 and 4.9% in Q1 2027. The index, based on a survey of major manufacturers, remains a key barometer for an economy where industrial output plays a central role. The Bank of Japan raised its FY2026 GDP growth projection to 0.6% from 0.5% at its latest meeting, due to resilient domestic demand amid the government’s support measures. However, the board warned that underlying inflation could exceed the 2% target amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. For FY2027, the BoJ lifted its inflation forecast to 2.4% from 2.3%, while raising its GDP growth outlook to 0.8% from 0.7%.
2026-09-10
Japan Business Sentiment Falls to 1-Year Low
Japan’s Business Survey Index for large manufacturers unexpectedly fell to -1.8% in the second quarter of 2026 from 3.8% in Q1, the first negative reading since the second quarter of 2025. The latest reading missed market expectations of 4.2%, as businesses were weighed down by the Middle East conflict and surging oil prices. This heightened concerns about a potential economic slowdown, renewed inflationary pressures in Japan, and uncertainty over monetary policy. Looking ahead, manufacturing sentiment is expected to return to positive territory at 4.4% in Q3 and accelerate to 5.8% in Q4. The index, based on a survey of major manufacturers, remains a key barometer for an economy where industrial output plays a central role.
2026-06-10
Japan Business Mood Eases in Q1
Japan’s Business Survey Index for large manufacturers fell to 3.8% in the first quarter of 2026 from 4.7% in Q4, but remained in positive territory for the third consecutive quarter. The latest reading came in below market expectations of 5.5%, as businesses grappled with the Middle East conflict and surging oil prices. That heightened concerns about a potential economic hit and renewed inflationary pressures in Japan, while complicating the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy. Looking ahead, manufacturing sentiment is expected to weaken further to 0.7% in Q2 before rebounding to 6.3% in Q3. The index, based on a survey of major manufacturers, remains a key barometer for an economy where industrial output plays a central role.
2026-03-12