Japan’s Business Survey Index for large manufacturers unexpectedly fell to -1.8% in the second quarter of 2026 from 3.8% in Q1, the first negative reading since the second quarter of 2025. The latest reading missed market expectations of 4.2%, as businesses were weighed down by the Middle East conflict and surging oil prices. This heightened concerns about a potential economic slowdown, renewed inflationary pressures in Japan, and uncertainty over monetary policy. Looking ahead, manufacturing sentiment is expected to return to positive territory at 4.4% in Q3 and accelerate to 5.8% in Q4. The index, based on a survey of major manufacturers, remains a key barometer for an economy where industrial output plays a central role. source: Cabinet Office, Japan

Business Survey Index Large Manufacturing Firms in Japan decreased to -1.80 percent in the second quarter of 2026 from 3.80 percent in the first quarter of 2026. Business Survey Index Large Manufacturing Firms in Japan averaged -1.00 percent from 2004 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 21.60 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 and a record low of -66.00 percent in the first quarter of 2009. This page includes a chart with historical data for Japan Business Survey Index Large Manufacturing Firms. Japan Business Survey Index Large Manufacturing Firms - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on June of 2026.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-03-11 11:50 PM
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
Q1 3.8% 4.7% 5.5% 2.8%
2026-06-10 11:50 PM
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
Q2 -1.8% 3.8% 4.2% 4.0%
2026-09-10 11:50 PM
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
Q3


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
BSI Large Manufacturing -1.80 3.80 percent Jun 2026
Changes in Inventories -1847.00 -1482.20 JPY Billion Mar 2026
Coincident Index 117.90 116.80 points Apr 2026
Eco Watchers Survey Current 43.60 40.80 points May 2026
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 40.70 39.40 points May 2026
Leading Economic Index 115.90 115.40 Points Apr 2026
Machinery Orders MoM -9.40 13.60 percent Mar 2026
New Orders 1177.64 1254.29 JPY Billion Mar 2026


Japan Business Survey Index Large Manufacturing Firms
The Business Outlook Survey is an analysis of the business leaders' assessments and forecasts of and for the economy in order to gain basic information for keeping track of economic trends. It covers about 15,000 companies that have established their headquarters or principal offices in Japan.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-1.80 3.80 21.60 -66.00 2004 - 2026 percent Quarterly
NSA

News Stream
Japan Business Sentiment Falls to 1-Year Low
Japan’s Business Survey Index for large manufacturers unexpectedly fell to -1.8% in the second quarter of 2026 from 3.8% in Q1, the first negative reading since the second quarter of 2025. The latest reading missed market expectations of 4.2%, as businesses were weighed down by the Middle East conflict and surging oil prices. This heightened concerns about a potential economic slowdown, renewed inflationary pressures in Japan, and uncertainty over monetary policy. Looking ahead, manufacturing sentiment is expected to return to positive territory at 4.4% in Q3 and accelerate to 5.8% in Q4. The index, based on a survey of major manufacturers, remains a key barometer for an economy where industrial output plays a central role.
2026-06-10
Japan Business Mood Eases in Q1
Japan’s Business Survey Index for large manufacturers fell to 3.8% in the first quarter of 2026 from 4.7% in Q4, but remained in positive territory for the third consecutive quarter. The latest reading came in below market expectations of 5.5%, as businesses grappled with the Middle East conflict and surging oil prices. That heightened concerns about a potential economic hit and renewed inflationary pressures in Japan, while complicating the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy. Looking ahead, manufacturing sentiment is expected to weaken further to 0.7% in Q2 before rebounding to 6.3% in Q3. The index, based on a survey of major manufacturers, remains a key barometer for an economy where industrial output plays a central role.
2026-03-12
Japan Business Sentiment Hits 1-Year High
Japan’s Business Survey Index for large manufacturers rose to 4.7% in Q4 2025, up from 3.8% in the prior quarter and marking the strongest reading this year. The result also beat expectations of 4.1%, underscoring continued resilience despite trade frictions, growth concerns and mounting fiscal risks. Firms also faced the prospect of Bank of Japan rate increases, with markets pricing in a December move followed by 2 to 3 additional hikes in 2026. Forward guidance points to softer conditions ahead, with manufacturing sentiment projected to ease to 1.1% in Q1 and 1.3% in Q2 2026. The index, drawn from a survey of major manufacturers, remains a critical barometer for an economy where industrial output plays a central role.
2025-12-11