Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US declined to 3.1% in January 2026, the lowest in six months, compared to 3.4% in December. Consumers expect a slowdown in prices for gas (-1.2 percentage points to 2.8%), medical care (-0.1 percentage point to 9.8%), rent (-0.9 percentage point to 6.8%) and home (-0.1 percentage point to 2.9%, its lowest reading since July 2023). Meanwhile, median year-ahead price change expectations were unchanged for food at 5.7% and increased by 0.7 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 9%. In addition, inflation expectations remained steady at 3% for both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons. Elsewhere, earnings growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.7% and unemployment expectations edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 41.9%. source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Inflation Expectations in the United States decreased to 3.10 percent in January from 3.40 percent in December of 2025. Inflation Expectations in the United States averaged 3.34 percent from 2013 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in June of 2022 and a record low of 2.33 percent in October of 2019. This page provides - United States Consumer Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Consumer Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2026.

Inflation Expectations in the United States decreased to 3.10 percent in January from 3.40 percent in December of 2025. Inflation Expectations in the United States is expected to be 3.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 3.00 percent in 2027, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-01-08 04:00 PM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Dec 3.4% 3.2% 3.2%
2026-02-09 04:00 PM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Jan 3.1% 3.4% 3.4%
2026-03-09 03:00 PM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Feb 3.1%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
CPI 325.25 324.05 points Jan 2026
Core Consumer Prices 332.79 331.81 points Jan 2026
Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.50 2.60 percent Jan 2026
Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.30 0.20 percent Jan 2026
Core PCE Price Index 127.92 127.47 points Dec 2025
Core PCE Price Index YoY 3.00 2.83 percent Dec 2025
Core PCE Price Index MoM 0.40 0.20 percent Dec 2025
Core PCE Prices QoQ 2.70 2.90 percent Dec 2025
Core Producer Prices 150.25 149.27 points Dec 2025
Core PPI MoM 0.70 0.00 percent Dec 2025
Core PPI YoY 3.30 3.10 percent Dec 2025
CPI Core Core YoY 2.40 2.30 percent Jan 2026
CPI Housing Utilities 352.54 351.07 points Jan 2026
CPI Median 3.00 3.10 percent Jan 2026
CPI s.a 326.59 326.03 points Jan 2026
CPI Transportation 267.52 268.63 points Jan 2026
CPI Trimmed-Mean 2.70 2.90 percent Jan 2026
Earnings Growth Expectations 2.70 2.50 percent Jan 2026
Energy Inflation -0.10 2.30 Percent Jan 2026
Export Prices 154.10 153.60 points Dec 2025
Export Prices MoM 0.30 0.00 percent Dec 2025
Export Prices YoY 3.10 3.20 percent Dec 2025
Food Inflation 2.90 3.10 percent Jan 2026
GDP Price Index 129.43 128.25 points Sep 2025
Import Prices 141.40 141.20 points Dec 2025
Import Prices MoM 0.10 -0.10 percent Dec 2025
Import Prices YoY 0.00 -0.10 percent Dec 2025
Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.10 3.40 percent Jan 2026
3-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.00 3.00 percent Jan 2026
5-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.00 3.00 percent Jan 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 2.40 2.70 percent Jan 2026
Inflation Rate MoM 0.20 0.30 percent Jan 2026
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations 3.30 3.30 percent Feb 2026
Michigan Inflation Expectations 3.40 4.00 percent Feb 2026
PCE Price Index 128.61 128.15 points Dec 2025
PCE Price Index YoY 2.90 2.80 percent Dec 2025
PCE Price Index MoM 0.40 0.20 percent Dec 2025
PCE Prices QoQ 2.90 2.80 percent Dec 2025
PPI Ex Food Energy and Trade Services 139.01 138.51 points Dec 2025
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM 0.40 0.20 percent Dec 2025
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY 3.50 3.50 percent Dec 2025
PPI MoM 0.50 0.20 percent Dec 2025
PPI 151.47 150.73 points Dec 2025
PPI YoY 3.00 3.00 percent Dec 2025
Rent Inflation 3.00 3.20 percent Jan 2026
Services Inflation 3.20 3.30 Percent Jan 2026
Mean Unemployment Rate Expectations 41.90 41.80 percent Jan 2026


United States Consumer Inflation Expectations
In the US, one-year inflation expectations represent the median expected inflation rate over the next 12 months, as measured by the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data are collected through a nationally representative, internet-based survey of roughly 1,300 rotating household heads, providing insight into short-term consumer inflation sentiment.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
3.10 3.40 6.80 2.33 2013 - 2026 percent Monthly
NSA

News Stream
US Inflation Expectations Lowest in 6 Months
Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US declined to 3.1% in January 2026, the lowest in six months, compared to 3.4% in December. Consumers expect a slowdown in prices for gas (-1.2 percentage points to 2.8%), medical care (-0.1 percentage point to 9.8%), rent (-0.9 percentage point to 6.8%) and home (-0.1 percentage point to 2.9%, its lowest reading since July 2023). Meanwhile, median year-ahead price change expectations were unchanged for food at 5.7% and increased by 0.7 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 9%. In addition, inflation expectations remained steady at 3% for both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons. Elsewhere, earnings growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.7% and unemployment expectations edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 41.9%.
2026-02-09
US Inflation Expectations Edge Higher
Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US rose to 3.4% in December 2025, up from 3.2% in each of the previous two months, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. In contrast, three- and five-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0%, suggesting stable longer-term inflation views. Inflation uncertainty increased across all horizons, indicating growing dispersion in expectations about future price outcomes. Meanwhile, median year-ahead price expectations declined across major household categories, including gas, food, medical care, college education, and rent. The survey also pointed to softening labor market sentiment, with job-finding expectations falling to a series low, the second such low in six months, while job-loss expectations worsened. Expectations for household income growth and spending, however, remained largely unchanged.
2026-01-08
US Inflation Expectations Remain Steady
Median inflation expectations in the US held steady in November 2025, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Economic Expectations. The one-year-ahead median inflation expectation remained at 3.2%, while the three- and five-year-ahead horizons stayed at 3.0%. Median inflation uncertainty, reflecting the range of opinions on future inflation, was unchanged for the one- and three-year horizons and declined at the five-year horizon. Expectations for median home price growth remained unchanged at 3.0% for the sixth consecutive month. Year-ahead median expectations for commodity prices, however, showed notable increases: food rose 0.2 percentage points to 5.9%, gas climbed 0.6 points to 4.1%, medical care surged 0.7 points to 10.1% (the highest since January 2014), college education increased 0.2 points to 8.4%, and rent jumped 1.1 points to 8.3%.
2025-12-08