US Inflation Expectations Rise Sharply

2026-04-07 15:17 By Andre Joaquim 1 min. read

Median year-ahead inflation expectations measured by the New York Fed rose to 3.4% in March of 2026 from 3% in the previous month, the highest so far this year.

Consumer expectations for gasoline (9.4% vs 4.1% in February) price growth surged to the highest level since March of 2022 as the outbreak of war in the Middle East lifted benchmark energy prices.

Inflation expectations were also higher for food (6% vs 5.3%) and rent (7.1% vs 5.9%).

Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the three-year-ahead horizon edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% and were unchanged at 3% at the five-year-ahead horizon in March.

Elsewhere, spending and household income growth expectations remained largely unchanged.

Consumers were more pessimistic about their future household financial situations.



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US Inflation Expectations Rise Sharply
Median year-ahead inflation expectations measured by the New York Fed rose to 3.4% in March of 2026 from 3% in the previous month, the highest so far this year. Consumer expectations for gasoline (9.4% vs 4.1% in February) price growth surged to the highest level since March of 2022 as the outbreak of war in the Middle East lifted benchmark energy prices. Inflation expectations were also higher for food (6% vs 5.3%) and rent (7.1% vs 5.9%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the three-year-ahead horizon edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% and were unchanged at 3% at the five-year-ahead horizon in March. Elsewhere, spending and household income growth expectations remained largely unchanged. Consumers were more pessimistic about their future household financial situations.
2026-04-07
US Inflation Expectations Fall to 7-Month Low
Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US declined to 3% in February 2026, the lowest in seven months, compared to 3.1% in January. Consumers expect a slowdown in prices for food (-0.4 percentage point to 5.3%), medical care (-0.1 percentage point to 9.7%) and rent (-0.9 percentage point to 5.9%). On the other hand, median year-ahead price change expectations increased by 1.3 percentage points for gas to 4.1% and 0.1 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 9.1%. Inflation expectations remained steady at 3% for both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.
2026-03-09
US Inflation Expectations Lowest in 6 Months
Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US declined to 3.1% in January 2026, the lowest in six months, compared to 3.4% in December. Consumers expect a slowdown in prices for gas (-1.2 percentage points to 2.8%), medical care (-0.1 percentage point to 9.8%), rent (-0.9 percentage point to 6.8%) and home (-0.1 percentage point to 2.9%, its lowest reading since July 2023). Meanwhile, median year-ahead price change expectations were unchanged for food at 5.7% and increased by 0.7 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 9%. In addition, inflation expectations remained steady at 3% for both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons. Elsewhere, earnings growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.7% and unemployment expectations edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 41.9%.
2026-02-09