Business confidence in Hong Kong fell sharply to -12 in the first quarter of 2019 from 2 in the previous period. It was the lowest reading since the second quarter of 2009, as expectations worsened for financing & insurance (-8 compared to 13 in Q4 2018); retail (-6 compared to 19); accommodation and food services (-5 compared to 17); transportation, storage and courier services (-13 compared to 8). In addition, prospects deteriorated further for manufacturing (-3 compared to -1) and professional & business services (-7 compared to -2). On the other hand, expectations improved for construction (-23 compared to -26) and real estate (-5 compared to -6). Business Confidence in Hong Kong averaged 7.60 Index Points from 2006 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 32 Index Points in the third quarter of 2006 and a record low of -53 Index Points in the first quarter of 2009.
Business Confidence in Hong Kong is expected to be -3.36 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Hong Kong to stand at 1.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Hong Kong Business Confidence is projected to trend around 1.14 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.