Kazakhstan Interest Rate1992-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Calendar | Historical

The central bank of Kazakhstan left its key policy rate unchanged at 9% on January 25th 2021, as widely expected. The bank has kept the rate steady since a 50 basis points cut in July, when Kazakhstan entered its second national lockdown amid a novel coronavirus flare-up. The Committee said that the move aimed to bring inflation back within the 4-6% target range "in the medium term" amid elevated inflationary pressure and persistent global uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The annual inflation accelerated to 7.5% in December, the highest since October 2017, from 7.3% a month earlier. At the same time, policymakers noted that the economy of Kazakhstan contracted by 2.6% in 2020, which was in line with the forecasts of the National Bank.

The central bank of Kazakhstan left its key policy rate unchanged at 9 percent on December 14th of 2020 but raised the rate at which it accepts excess liquidity from banks by 50bps to 8.0 percent. The Committee said the move is necessitated by the fundamental instability on the oil market, high and weakly-anchored inflation expectations against the backdrop of persistent uncertainty related to the pandemic. In November, annual inflation rose to 7.3 percent, the highest in 3 years and policymakers expect it to increase to 7.5% in December. A gradual slowdown to the upper limit of the target range of 4-6% is only expected by the end of 2021.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its policy rate at 9 percent during its October 2020 meeting, as widely expected. Policymakers noted that the inflation rate stabilized for the second consecutive month and it is expected to accelerate in the medium term mainly due to a delayed demand. The Committee said that the coronavirus pandemic continues to have a negative impact on the domestic economy, but some sectors have improved due to the simplification of quarantine measures and government support. Policymakers added that the current policy stance remains appropriate to keep the inflation rate under control.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its policy rate at 9% during its September 2020 meeting, in a widely expected move, after cutting it by 50 bps in July to support the economy. Policymakers said the current policy stance remains appropriate to keep the inflation rate under control and help it to subside in the medium term. The annual inflation rate is estimated to reach 8% in 2020 and slow to 6% in 2021. The bank also has revised its 2020 GDP projections that now point to a steeper contraction of 2-2.3% from an earlier estimate of a 1.8% decline. The economy is projected to return to growth of around 3.5-3.8% in 2021, as the pandemic situation gradually improves, boosted by the recovery of external demand, the implementation of deferred investment projects, the revival of consumer demand and the fiscal stimulus policy. Still, there were cited concerns over the uncertain external environment as well as about fresh Western sanctions against Russia.