The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its benchmark overnight policy at 9.25 percent on January 14th, 2018, as widely expected. Policymakers noted that inflation has been stabilizing near the lower bound of the 5%–7% target range, and expect the rate to maintain within the new target range of 4%-6% at the end of 2019. In December 2018, the annual inflation stood at 5.3 percent, unchanged from November and October. Still, the primary risk to the inflation outlook stems from uncertainty around future oil prices and the tendency towards a rise in inflation in the country’s main trading partners, especially Russia. The Bank added that achieve a target inflation of 4% by the end of 2020 becomes crucial, and in case of persistent volatility in the global oil market, measures to tighten monetary policy might be taken on the next revision of the base rate. Interest Rate in Kazakhstan averaged 24.20 percent from 1992 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 300 percent in March of 1994 and a record low of 5.50 percent in August of 2012.
Interest Rate in Kazakhstan is expected to be 9.25 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Kazakhstan to stand at 9.75 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Kazakhstan Interest Rate is projected to trend around 9.75 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.