Kazakhstan Interest Rate1992-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Calendar | Historical

The National Bank of Kazakhstan raised its benchmark base rate by 25 bps to 9.5% on September 13th of 2021, the second consecutive rate increase, and pushing borrowing costs to the highest in a year, aiming to control rising inflation. Kazakhstan’s consumer price inflation edged up to 8.7% in August of 2021, the highest since November of 2016. Inflation is seen at 7.5%-8.5% this year and will likely slow to the target corridor of 4%-6% next year. Meanwhile, policymakers revised GDP growth forecasts to 3.5%-3.8% for 2021 while for 2022, growth forecasts were revised slightly higher to 4.1%-4.4%.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan raised its benchmark base rate by 25 bps to 9.25 percent on July 26th of 2021, aiming to avoid the unwinding of an inflationary spiral. Policymakers said the decision was mainly based on realized supply-side inflationary risks and sustained pressure from the demand side, which was causing inflation to form above forecasts. The bank noted the rapid economic recovery and a significant fiscal stimulus formed a pro-inflationary trend. In June, consumer prices climbed 7.9% from a year earlier, mostly lifted by food prices, which resumed an upward trend seen also in neighbouring countries. The economy rose 2.2% from a year earlier in the first half of 2021 amid easing quarantine restrictions and rising commodity prices. Looking forward, the central bank sees inflation remaining above the target range by the end of 2021 and will continue to adjust the benchmark base rate and tighten monetary conditions in order to control price pressures.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan held its benchmark base rate unchanged at 9.0 percent on June 7th of 2021, as expected. Policymakers said the decision took into account the balance of inflation risks in the short and medium term, due to the persistence of external inflationary pressures in Kazakhstan’s major trading partners, mainly driven by world food prices. In May, annual inflation quickened to a 3-month high of 7.2 percent, lifted by prices of non-food goods and paid services. The central bank said inflation could exceed the target range of 4 to 6 percent. The committee confirmed the economy was undergoing a gradual recovery of business activity and consumer demand. Looking ahead, policymakers raised the bank’s economic growth forecast for 2021 to between 3.6 and 3.9 percent, from a prior range of 3.4 to 3.7 percent.

The central bank of Kazakhstan left its key policy rate unchanged at 9% on April 26th 2021, saying inflationary expectations were rising despite the decline in actual inflation figures. The bank has kept the rate steady since a 50 bps cut in July, when Kazakhstan entered its second national lockdown amid a novel coronavirus flare-up. In March, headline inflation eased to 7.0% from an three-year high of 7.4%, but the bank now expects inflation to reach 6.9% in 2021, from the prior 6.7% estimate.