US Inflation Expectations Fall to 7-Month Low

US median inflation expectations for one year ahead rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% in June 2026, the highest since September 2023. Expectations for three years ahead also increased by 0.2 points to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022, while the five-year outlook remained steady at 3.0%. Gas price growth expectations fell by 3.5 points to 1.5%, the lowest since August 2022. The survey also revealed improved job security perceptions: the mean probability of losing a job in the next 12 months dropped by 1.0 point to 14.1%, while the likelihood of finding a new job rose by 1.2 points to 44.9%. Households reported better current financial situations compared to a year ago, though expectations for future credit availability worsened slightly, with more respondents anticipating tighter credit conditions ahead.

Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US decreased to 3.5% in May 2026 from 3.6% in April which was the highest in a year. Price-growth expectations declined for gas (-0.1 percentage point to 5%), medical care (-0.7 percentage point to 8.9%) and college education (-0.8 percentage point to 8%). In contrast, consumers expect higher prices for home (+0.5 percentage point to 3.5%, the highest since July 2022), food (+0.6 percentage point to 5.8%) and rent (+1.4 percentage point to 7.4%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.1% and 3% at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons. Elsewhere, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained stable at 2.7% and nominal household spending growth expectations decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 5%. In addition, the mean unemployment expectations fell by 0.4 percentage point to 43.2%.

Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US increased for a second month to 3.6% in April 2026, the highest in a year, compared to 3.4% in March. Inflation uncertainty also increased at the one-year-ahead horizon. Gas price growth expectations retreated appreciably to 5.1% from a 9.4% spike in March. A decrease was also seen in price change expectations for food (-0.8 percentage point to 5.2%), medical care (-0.1 percentage point to 9.6%), college education (-0.2 percentage point to 8.8%), rent (-1.1 percentage points to 6%) and home price (-0.3 percentage point to 3%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations remained steady at 3.1% for the three-year horizon and at 3% for the five-year one. Elsewhere, earnings growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 2.7% and unemployment expectations went up by 0.4 percentage points to 43.9%, reaching the highest since April 2025.