Chicago Fed Activity Index Turns Positive in January

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.18 in January 2026 from -0.21 in December, marking its highest level since February 2025 and signaling a pickup in US economic activity at the start of the year. Production-related indicators drove the improvement, contributing +0.19 compared with -0.03 previously, while employment indicators edged up to +0.01 from -0.11. The sales, orders, and inventories category remained slightly negative at -0.02, though improved from -0.04, and personal consumption and housing made a neutral contribution after subtracting -0.04 in December.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in the US rose to -0.04 in November 2025 from -0.42 in October which was the lowest in ten months, signalling that economic growth increased on the month. Production-related indicators contributed +0.08, up from -0.26 in October. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution was -0.03 in November, unchanged from October. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.07, up from -0.11 in October and the personal consumption and housing category's contribution was -0.02, up from -0.03 in October. Meanwhile, the CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to -0.24 in November from -0.43 in October.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.21 in September 2025 from -0.31 in August, according to delayed data, signaling a milder contraction in economic activity. Despite the improvement, the index remained in negative territory for a sixth consecutive month. Production-related indicators contributed -0.10 to the index, improving from -0.13 in August. The sales, orders, and inventories component weakened slightly, contributing -0.07 compared with -0.05 previously, while the personal consumption and housing category also deteriorated to -0.06 from -0.03. In contrast, employment-related indicators turned positive, contributing +0.01 in September after -0.11 in August, providing a modest offset to broader economic softness.