Chicago rough rice futures surged to a 16-month high of $14.5 per hundredweight, firmly rebounding from a two-month low of $13.0 hit at the beginning of November, underpinned by an ongoing fertilizer crisis and higher export prices from top exporter India. Indian rice export prices received a boost from a stronger rupee and mounting supply chain constraints stemming from both pandemic-related issues and rising fertilizer prices, with Indian farmers complaining of having to sit in queues for days for a few bags of fertilizer. Elsewhere, the Bengali government announced it will purchase the upcoming season’s rice at 40 taka per kilogram (roughly $0.47), up from the prior price of 37 taka per kilogram (roughly $0.43).
Historically, Rice reached an all time high of 1349 in September of 2020. Rice - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on December of 2021.
Rice is expected to trade at 15.12 USD/CWT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 17.03 in 12 months time.