Brazil GDP Shrinks More Than Expected In Q4


The Brazilian economy contracted 0.9 percent on quarter in the last three months of 2016, following a downwardly revised 0.7 percent drop in the previous period and worse than market expectations of a 0.6 percent fall. Household consumption declined at a steeper pace and imports recovered while investment and exports shrank less and government spending edged up.

Household spending fell 0.6 percent, more than a 0.3 percent drop in the previous quarter. In contrast, government spending edged up 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent fall in the previous quarter and marking the first increase in nine months. Gross fixed capital formation fell at a slower 1.6 percent (-2.5 percent in Q3) and exports also declined less (-1.8 percent compared to -3.2 percent). On the other hand, imports rose 3.2 percent, recovering from a 3.1 percent decline in the previous period. 

On the production side, the services sector shrank at a faster 0.8 percent (-0.5 percent in Q3) as internal trade fell more (-1.2 percent compared to -0.4 percent) and information services (-2.1 percent compared to 0.3 percent in Q3) and real estate (-0.2 percent compared to a flat reading in Q3) came back to contraction. The industrial sector declined at a slower 0.7 percent, following a 1.4 percent drop in the previous period, dragged down by construction (-2.3 percent compared to -1.7 percent in Q3), manufacturing (-1 percent compared to -1.3 percent in Q3) and electricity output (-0.1 percent compared to -1.2 percent in Q3). In contrast, mining rose 0.7 percent (3.7 percent in Q3) and agriculture went up 1 percent, following a 2.1 percent drop in Q3 and marking the first increase in 2016. 

Year-on-year, the economy slumped 2.5 percent, the eleventh straight quarter of contraction. Considering full 2016, the GDP declined 3.6 percent, following a 3.8 percent deop in 2015, marking the worst recession on record. Agriculture (-6.6 percent compared to +3.6 percent in 2015), industrial production (-3.8 percent compared to -6.3 percent in 2015) and services (-2.7 percent, the same as in 2015) fell. In 2017, markets expect the economy to expand 0.5 percent. 

Brazil GDP Shrinks More Than Expected In Q4


IBGE | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
3/7/2017 12:38:13 PM