5th District Manufacturing Slows Decline

The Federal Reserve's Fifth District manufacturing index fell to -10 in February of 2025 from -6 in the previous month, the lowest in three months and missing expectations that it would improve to -4. The result reflected 12 months of negative readings, aligned with pessimistic signals from other regions of the US as tariffs magnified higher producer inflation to dent sentiment among goods producers. Shipments fall further (.13 vs .5 in January) as new orders dropped (-9 vs -6), even though companies continued to run through their order backlogs (-15 vs -13). In turn, prices paid remained elevated but at a softer pace than in the previous month (6.25 vs 7.06).

The Federal Reserve's Fifth District manufacturing index inched higher by one point from the previous month to -6 in January of 2026, the highest in four months, and ahead of the market consensus of a slight decrease to -8. Still, the result reflected an 11th consecutive month of pessimism on the district's goods producing sector. The drop in shipments softened (-5 vs -11 in December 2025) with support from a slower drop in new orders (-6 vs -8) and a faster depletion of backlog of orders (-13 vs -7). In the meantime, employment levels were seen lower (-6 vs -7) and wage growth fell (14 vs 24). Meanwhile, prices paid for inputs rose faster (7.06 vs 6.53), although competition prevented firms from passing those on to clients as output charges slowed (4.58 vs 4.98). Meanwhile, the expectations index for both shipments (34 vs 28) and new order volumes (36 vs 27) improved.

The Federal Reserve's Fifth District manufacturing index rose to -7 in December of 2025 from -15 in the previous month, in line with market expectations. The decline in the current survey for shipments softened (-11 vs -14 in November) amid an improvement in firms' new orders (-8 vs -22), allowing for a slower depletion of order backlogs (-7 vs .23. In the meantime, the drop in employment was nearly erased (-1 vs -7), although wages continued to expand sharply (24 vs 24). Looking ahead, improvements were noted in the outlook of new orders (28 vs 25) and new orders (27 vs 26).