US 1-Year Inflation Expectations Confirmed at 4.2%

2026-07-31 14:08 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

Year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States, as measured by the University of Michigan survey, fell for a second consecutive month to 4.2% in July 2026, the lowest level since March, down from 4.6% in June and in line with the preliminary estimate.

Even so, expectations remained well above the 3.4% recorded in February, before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, and above all readings seen throughout 2024.

Meanwhile, the five-year inflation outlook stood at 3.3% in July, matching both June's reading and the preliminary estimate.

Nevertheless, it remained slightly above the 2.8%-3.2% range that prevailed throughout 2024.



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US 1-Year Inflation Expectations Confirmed at 4.2%
Year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States, as measured by the University of Michigan survey, fell for a second consecutive month to 4.2% in July 2026, the lowest level since March, down from 4.6% in June and in line with the preliminary estimate. Even so, expectations remained well above the 3.4% recorded in February, before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, and above all readings seen throughout 2024. Meanwhile, the five-year inflation outlook stood at 3.3% in July, matching both June's reading and the preliminary estimate. Nevertheless, it remained slightly above the 2.8%-3.2% range that prevailed throughout 2024.
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