US Manufacturing PMI Signals Stronger Expansion in January

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.4 in January 2026, above the preliminary estimate of 51.9 and up from December’s five-month low of 51.8. The latest reading points to a firmer pace of expansion in manufacturing activity, broadly in line with the survey’s long-run average. Output rose sharply, marking the strongest increase since last August and the joint-fastest pace since May 2022. New orders posted a modest rebound, though overall demand remained constrained by a seventh straight monthly decline in export orders, reflecting the impact of tariffs and persistent trade uncertainty. Hiring remained positive but job growth eased to a three-month low. On the inflation front, input cost pressures strengthened, while manufacturers raised selling prices at the fastest pace since August. Business confidence was unchanged, with geopolitical risks and rising costs continuing to weigh on the outlook.

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI inched up to 51.9 in January 2026, virtually unchanged from December’s 51.8 and broadly in line with market expectations of 52, according to preliminary data. Despite the slight uptick, the index continued to point to the second-weakest improvement in factory business conditions since July, as employment growth slowed to a six-month low. Output growth, however, accelerated to its strongest pace since last August, while new orders rebounded after declining in December. Supplier delivery times lengthened, though at a more moderate pace, and inventories of purchased inputs remained broadly unchanged.

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 51.8 in December 2025, down from 52.2 in November, marking the weakest expansion in the current five-month growth phase. New orders declined for the first time in a year, while exports fell for a seventh consecutive month, weighed down by tariffs and trade frictions. Output growth also moderated, even as firms continued to build inventories for a fifth straight month, though at a slower pace than November’s record accumulation. Employment rose solidly as manufacturers filled vacancies in anticipation of stronger conditions in 2026. On the price front, input cost inflation eased to an 11-month low but remained historically elevated, while selling price increases slowed to their weakest pace since early 2025, still running above long-term norms. Overall business confidence deteriorated, reflecting softer order inflows and persistent uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policy.