US Consumer Inflation Expectations Steady at 3.9%

2026-11-09 16:10 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

Median US inflation expectations for the year ahead were steady at 3.9% in October 2026, the same as in September, and holding at 2023-highs, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Median year-ahead expected price changes decreased by 0.6 pp to 4.2% for gas and were unchanged at 5.5% for food.

In contrast, price changes increased by 0.1 pp to 9.3% for the cost of medical care, by 0.1 pp to 7.6% for the cost of college education, and by 0.9 pp to 7.7% for rent.

Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3%, just below its 12-month trailing average of 3.1%.

Meanwhile, expectations for the three-year and five-year horizons were also steady at 3.3% and 3% respectively.

Elsewhere, earnings growth expectations remained unchanged at 2.6%, unemployment expectations rose by 1.4 pp to 45.3%, its highest reading since April 2020 and expected growth in household income declined by 0.1 pp to 3%.



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US Consumer Inflation Expectations Steady at 3.9%
Median US inflation expectations for the year ahead were steady at 3.9% in October 2026, the same as in September, and holding at 2023-highs, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median year-ahead expected price changes decreased by 0.6 pp to 4.2% for gas and were unchanged at 5.5% for food. In contrast, price changes increased by 0.1 pp to 9.3% for the cost of medical care, by 0.1 pp to 7.6% for the cost of college education, and by 0.9 pp to 7.7% for rent. Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3%, just below its 12-month trailing average of 3.1%. Meanwhile, expectations for the three-year and five-year horizons were also steady at 3.3% and 3% respectively. Elsewhere, earnings growth expectations remained unchanged at 2.6%, unemployment expectations rose by 1.4 pp to 45.3%, its highest reading since April 2020 and expected growth in household income declined by 0.1 pp to 3%.
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