US Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated

2026-09-08 15:09 By Agna Gabriel 1 min. read

US consumers’ median one-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.6% in August 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.

However, expected price growth for gas rose 1.7 percentage points to 4.6%, while food expectations increased 0.3 percentage point to 5.3%.

Medical-care price expectations rose 0.2 percentage point to 9.1%.

Expectations for college education costs increased 0.3 percentage point to 6.1%, while rent expectations climbed 0.7 percentage point to 6.6%.

Meanwhile, the five-year-ahead measure was unchanged at 3%, while three-year-ahead expectations edged down 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%.

Elsewhere, median expectations for one-year-ahead earnings growth increased slightly to 2.9%.

Concerns about the labour market also intensified, with the mean probability that unemployment will be higher in a year rising 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%, the highest level since April 2020.



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US Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated
US consumers’ median one-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.6% in August 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. However, expected price growth for gas rose 1.7 percentage points to 4.6%, while food expectations increased 0.3 percentage point to 5.3%. Medical-care price expectations rose 0.2 percentage point to 9.1%. Expectations for college education costs increased 0.3 percentage point to 6.1%, while rent expectations climbed 0.7 percentage point to 6.6%. Meanwhile, the five-year-ahead measure was unchanged at 3%, while three-year-ahead expectations edged down 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%. Elsewhere, median expectations for one-year-ahead earnings growth increased slightly to 2.9%. Concerns about the labour market also intensified, with the mean probability that unemployment will be higher in a year rising 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%, the highest level since April 2020.
2026-09-08
US Inflation Expectations Edge Down in July
US median inflation expectations for one year ahead edged down to 3.6% in July 2026 from 3.7% in June which was the highest since September 2023. Inflation expectations decreased for medical care (by 0.5 percentage point to 8.9%) and rent (by 2.4 percentage points to 5.9%) while remaining unchanged for food (at 5%) and median home price growth (at 3.2%). On the other hand, consumers expect prices to increase faster for gas (by 1.4 percentage points to 2.9%) and college education (by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations remained unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3% and 3%, respectively. Elsewhere, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained steady at 2.8% and household spending growth expectations slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.9%. Unemployment expectations increased by 1.1 percentage points to 42.8%.
2026-08-07
US Inflation Expectations Rise to Highest Since 2023
US median inflation expectations for one year ahead rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% in June 2026, the highest since September 2023. Expectations for three years ahead also increased by 0.2 points to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022, while the five-year outlook remained steady at 3.0%. Gas price growth expectations fell by 3.5 points to 1.5%, the lowest since August 2022. The survey also revealed improved job security perceptions: the mean probability of losing a job in the next 12 months dropped by 1.0 point to 14.1%, while the likelihood of finding a new job rose by 1.2 points to 44.9%. Households reported better current financial situations compared to a year ago, though expectations for future credit availability worsened slightly, with more respondents anticipating tighter credit conditions ahead.
2026-07-07