US Inflation Expectations Rise to Three-Year High

Median US inflation expectations for the year ahead rose 0.3 percentage point to 3.9% in September 2026, the highest level since May 2023, according to the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. Year-ahead price expectations increased across several key categories. Gasoline expectations rose 1.7 percentage points to 4.6%, food to 5.3%, and medical care to 9.1%. Expectations for college tuition increased to 6.1%, while rent rose to 6.6%. At the three-year horizon, inflation expectations edged up 0.1 percentage point to 3.3%, while five-year expectations were unchanged at 3.0%.

US consumers’ median one-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.6% in August 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. However, expected price growth for gas rose 1.7 percentage points to 4.6%, while food expectations increased 0.3 percentage point to 5.3%. Medical-care price expectations rose 0.2 percentage point to 9.1%. Expectations for college education costs increased 0.3 percentage point to 6.1%, while rent expectations climbed 0.7 percentage point to 6.6%. Meanwhile, the five-year-ahead measure was unchanged at 3%, while three-year-ahead expectations edged down 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%. Elsewhere, median expectations for one-year-ahead earnings growth increased slightly to 2.9%. Concerns about the labour market also intensified, with the mean probability that unemployment will be higher in a year rising 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%, the highest level since April 2020.

US median inflation expectations for one year ahead edged down to 3.6% in July 2026 from 3.7% in June which was the highest since September 2023. Inflation expectations decreased for medical care (by 0.5 percentage point to 8.9%) and rent (by 2.4 percentage points to 5.9%) while remaining unchanged for food (at 5%) and median home price growth (at 3.2%). On the other hand, consumers expect prices to increase faster for gas (by 1.4 percentage points to 2.9%) and college education (by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations remained unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3% and 3%, respectively. Elsewhere, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained steady at 2.8% and household spending growth expectations slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.9%. Unemployment expectations increased by 1.1 percentage points to 42.8%.