US Inflation Expectations Edge Down in July

2026-08-07 15:09 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

US median inflation expectations for one year ahead edged down to 3.6% in July 2026 from 3.7% in June which was the highest since September 2023.

Inflation expectations decreased for medical care (by 0.5 percentage point to 8.9%) and rent (by 2.4 percentage points to 5.9%) while remaining unchanged for food (at 5%) and median home price growth (at 3.2%).

On the other hand, consumers expect prices to increase faster for gas (by 1.4 percentage points to 2.9%) and college education (by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8%).

Meanwhile, inflation expectations remained unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3% and 3%, respectively.

Elsewhere, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained steady at 2.8% and household spending growth expectations slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.9%.

Unemployment expectations increased by 1.1 percentage points to 42.8%.



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US Inflation Expectations Edge Down in July
US median inflation expectations for one year ahead edged down to 3.6% in July 2026 from 3.7% in June which was the highest since September 2023. Inflation expectations decreased for medical care (by 0.5 percentage point to 8.9%) and rent (by 2.4 percentage points to 5.9%) while remaining unchanged for food (at 5%) and median home price growth (at 3.2%). On the other hand, consumers expect prices to increase faster for gas (by 1.4 percentage points to 2.9%) and college education (by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations remained unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3% and 3%, respectively. Elsewhere, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained steady at 2.8% and household spending growth expectations slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.9%. Unemployment expectations increased by 1.1 percentage points to 42.8%.
2026-08-07
US Inflation Expectations Rise to Highest Since 2023
US median inflation expectations for one year ahead rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% in June 2026, the highest since September 2023. Expectations for three years ahead also increased by 0.2 points to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022, while the five-year outlook remained steady at 3.0%. Gas price growth expectations fell by 3.5 points to 1.5%, the lowest since August 2022. The survey also revealed improved job security perceptions: the mean probability of losing a job in the next 12 months dropped by 1.0 point to 14.1%, while the likelihood of finding a new job rose by 1.2 points to 44.9%. Households reported better current financial situations compared to a year ago, though expectations for future credit availability worsened slightly, with more respondents anticipating tighter credit conditions ahead.
2026-07-07
US Consumer Inflation Expectations Ease in May
Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US decreased to 3.5% in May 2026 from 3.6% in April which was the highest in a year. Price-growth expectations declined for gas (-0.1 percentage point to 5%), medical care (-0.7 percentage point to 8.9%) and college education (-0.8 percentage point to 8%). In contrast, consumers expect higher prices for home (+0.5 percentage point to 3.5%, the highest since July 2022), food (+0.6 percentage point to 5.8%) and rent (+1.4 percentage point to 7.4%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.1% and 3% at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons. Elsewhere, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained stable at 2.7% and nominal household spending growth expectations decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 5%. In addition, the mean unemployment expectations fell by 0.4 percentage point to 43.2%.
2026-06-08